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Favourite Bet



Listowel 2.40

MAN O WORK 11/2-6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5




 
Final Deliberations



At the mercy of the weather

Newmarket has turned heavy
Haydock had already got there
Other tracks are catching up

Ground travel and non runners
Making it impossible to strike

Have to tiptoe carefully today
Aim for a staked bet saturday 


But every race I have covered
Was subject to many disruptions
Just have to sit the storm out



Chances in every race

Even with some good priced bets

But can not support a strong bet

This is my favourite of the five

 
Listowel 2.40

MAN O WORK  11/2-6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Preview Selections
 
Newmarket 2.25
£7.00 Win Bet Francophone 7/1-8/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Sea Of Roses 7/1  
£1.00 Win Bet  Comic Book 9/1-10/1

Listowel 2.40
Man O Work 11/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Worcester 3.45  
Mostly Sunny 5/1-9/2 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 

Newmarket 4.45 
£7.50 Win Bet  Burdett Road 8/1  
£2.50 Win Bet Epic Poet 3/1-100/30


Listowel 5.00
Jetara 11/8
Win Bet






Yesterday's Summary

Shorter 3 preview message
Nothing back from any race
Was not that surprised really
After a Wednesday message
That was quite demanding
And deteriorating conditions
Pinot Gris ran a decent 2nd
Stark contrast a win bet 3/1
Or an each way bet 1-2-3-4
Little doubt which was better
But the favourite pulled out
And that option was spoiled
Made sense to keep it tight
Not a day I could perform






 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS





   
Newmarket 2.25

6/4 Time Lock, 4/1 Place Of Safety, 
4/1 Sea Of Roses 8/1 Francophone, 
14/1 Comic Book, 25/1 Sinology

Dubai Stakes

12f Group race fillies/mares

TIME LOCK is favourite

Has a nasty 78 day absence

She is the oldest horse in this
No horses aged 5 or more won

Horses with over 11 runs
Have a 0-20 record in this race
The following horses fail this

TIME LOCK
SEA OF ROSES

SEA OF ROSES is a 4yo
Bit exposed and proven on soft
But should have every chance

PLACE OF SAFETY is a 3yo
She has only had 3 career runs

Past 3yo winners of this race
Had  6 6 7 6 5 5 8 6 career runs
They were all quite similar types

PLACE OF SAFETY with 3 runs
Is not a good enough match here
SINOLOGY likewise with 4 races

COMIC BOOK has 5 runs
Not quite like any winners
Coming down in distance 

FRANCOPHONE is a 3yo
No strong profile objections
The 2015 winner was similar
She is probably the best match 

Selection
 
£7.00 Win Bet FRANCOPHONE 7/1-8/1

£2.00 Win Bet SEA OF ROSES  7/1

£1.00 Win Bet  COMIC BOOK 9/1-10/1









Listowel 2.40

4/1 Tounsivator, 13/2 The Dasher Conway
7/1 Frankendael, 8/1 Royal Eagle, 9/1 Sherodan
10/1 Man O Work, 12/1 Helvic Dream 16/1 Anotherway
16/1  Four Clean Aces, 16/1 Icare Desbois
16/1 Risk Belle, 20/1 Drumgill,  25/1 Dark Note
25/1 Little Mixup, 25/1 Lord Erskine


Handicap Hurdle 2m

Listed class race

11 Past renewals

Willie Mullins runs a few
They all have challenges

TOUNSIVATOR one of them
He carries 11st 10lbs weight 
Lightweights do much better

Past renewals show

Horses with 11st 3lbs + are 1-30
Horses with 11st 5lbs + are 0-19

TOUNSIVATOR fails this
So do the following horses
 
RISK BELLE
ANOTHERWAY

RISK BELLE has 11st 5lbs
As a mare with 1 run in 146 days
Happy to look at he alternatives

Ideally you want 9-23 career runs

All 11 winners
Had at least 9 career runs
Those that did not were 0-25
The following have all lack this

SHERODAN only has 6 runs
And does not have a fit profile 
FOUR CLEAN ACES fails too

Agaiinst the oldest horses

THE DASHER CONWAY
LORD ERSKINE

FRANKENDAEL is a 5 year old
Looks raw with just 3 hurdle runs

Horses aged 5  
Under 8 hurdle races
Have a 0-24 record in this
The following all fail this

FRANKENDAEL
TOUNSIVATOR
ANOTHERWAY

DARK NOTE is a 5yo
Very exposed with 33 runs

Horses with over 24 runs
Have a poor 1-51 record in this
Those under 8 were 0-28
ROYAL EAGLE fails this 
ROYAL EAGLE also fails
As do some of the outsiders
And several already rejected

ICARE DESBOIS is a 6yo
Not enough positives for me
But not making him a negative
 
Horses from the flat
Score very well in this race
The winners in these years
2010 2015 2019 2023
All prepped on the flat last time
They were all aged 6-7-8
Ran recent runs behind them

HELVIC DREAM does this
So he makes the shortlist
But he comes from a 10f race
And with 32 runs is exposed

MAN O WORK also qualifies
Has a more well balanced profile

Selection 
 
MAN O WORK 11/2-6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Worcester 3.45

4/1 Backmersackme, 11/2 Fine Margin
7/1 Flying Fortune 8/1 Bob Bob Ricard
8/1  Mostly Sunny, 10/1 Jacobs Acre
12/1 Letterston Lily, 14/1 Ebony Warrior
16/1 Full Monty 25/1New Order
25/1 Shengai Enki, 33/1 Haarar.


Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Series final

Big prize money

So expecting one of two of these
To have been laid out for the race
Making their last runs less relevant 

BACKMERSACKME is an example
Running in flat maidens to get fit
While protecting his handicap mark
I would see him as a saver option

FINE MARGIN 7yo is topweight
Willie Mullins comes here W W W
Obviously can not be discounted
But winning 3 races exposes him
As unlikely to be well handicapped
And is not a very expensive horse

SEEYOUINMYDREAMS a mare
Has won both runs during 2024
But has only had 5 career starts

Go back to 2010
July to December
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Females horses
Aged 6 or more
Under 8 career runs
Absent over 50 days
Have a 0-75 record
SEEYOUINMYDREAMS fails this

She is now a non runner

LETTERSTON LILY is rejected
As a 4yo on his handicap debut

MOSTLY SUNNY is a 5yo
Hard to read from a 2m race
Looked at horses doing that
They score badly but 5yo's
Have an inconclusive 1-8 record

I would see him as a positive
Looks laid out to win a big prize

FLYING FORTUNE a 5yo mare
Lightly raced is also considered
Just preferred the Skelton horse

Selection

MOSTLY SUNNY 5/1-9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





Newmarket 4.45

7/4 Military Academy, 5/2 Epic Poet, 
4/1 Aimeric 12/1 Burdett Road
14/1 Lucentio


Godolphin Stakes 

Listed race 12f

MILITARY ACADEMY is favourite

John Gosden so could easily win

But just 2 career starts is a worry

The least experienced winner of this

Was a horse in 2005 with 5 runs

None have won with fewer races

So on this ground going to oppose
 
EPIC POET has a chance
If he recovers from haydock

AIMERIC could also win this
 
BURDETT ROAD is overpriced
He has had some recent excuses
May have been running himself fit

Split Staking this

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet BURDETT ROAD 8/1

£2.50 Win Bet EPIC POET 3/1-100/30







Listowel 5.00

100/30 Seddon, 4/1 Omniscient, 9/2 Weston
5/1 Jetara, 7/1 Cast A Spell, 8/1 Ascending
9/1 Cougar, 14/1 Garrybello, 22/1 Anyway
25/1 Karl Des Tourelles, 33/1 Elusive Guy
33/1 Red Striker, 40/1 Dancing Jeremy
50/1 D Art D Art, 150/1 Sawbuck.

Flat race 1m 6f

Interesting conditions race
For horses who in their career
Have not won any single race
That was worth more than 13k
Or more wins worth more than 26k

JETARA has no flat runs
But has won plenty over hurdles
And looks well placed in this race
No surprise she has been backed

WESTON is hard to read
But not long downgraded stables
New stable have a modest record
No evidence he is fit or ready

SEDDON is 11 years old
With just 1 run in 102 days

JETARA just appealed more
Several Grade 1 hurdlers won 
Some with absences as well
Race conditions invites these  

Selection

JETARA 11/8

Win Bet

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