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Final Deliberations


Short message today

Had planned a day off
But changed my mind
Doing a couple of races

Cheltenham looms closer
Plan to cover this tomorrow

No selections today

Both races covered

Look quite interesting

Not every firm are 4 places

Some are offering 1-2-3-4

It is worth the effort getting it

Will start back properly tomorrow





Preview Selections 



Punchestown 1.00 
£4.25 Each Way Vanillier 6/1-11/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Chemical Energy 13/2   
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3 (4)
  
Southwell 3.50
Toonagh Warrior 6/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3 (4)







Yesterday's Summary
 
Quite a heavy 8 race message
We managed to get to half time
Without having any losing bets
Some good staking did help us
Thisistheway scraped 5th place
Just enough to return our stakes
Ballyburn won as the saver bet
Kopek Des Bordes won easily
Marine Nationale returned stakes
That split stake now looks wise
Creditable effort at half way point
Edinburgh National the big race
Inis Oirr backed from 8/1 to 4/1
Unseated rider at the 1st fence
Disappointing and an anti climax
But nothing we can do about it
The two savers finished 2nd 3rd
It happens it's the game were in
Sequestered placed each way
Pyffo saved us by winning nicely
Ran out of luck in the final race
Long way from a complete mess
Only managed to find 1 winner
But returned stakes in 5 races
Overall were just a little behind


 


Profiles & Previews   
 



Punchestown 1.00

7/2 Stealthy Tom, 9/2 Coko Beach, 11/2 Vanillier
9/1 The Goffer, 10/1 Chemical Energy, 11/1 Cavalry Master
12/1 Knockiel Synge, 14/1 Longhouse Poet, 14/1 Well Buoy
16/1 Born By The Sea, 16/1 Gevrey, 18/1 Enjoy d'Allen
22/1 Three By Two, 28/1 I A Connect, 33/1 Western Comandor
50/1 Handsworth.
 
P.P. Hogan Memorial

Cross Country Chase 3m 1f

COKO BEACH is favourite
He won this race last season
After a good run at Aintree

Not keen on this year's prep 
He ran badly only 11 days ago
Got beaten 68 lengths there
Appreciate he was a 50/1 shot
And it was a Graded handicap
But that is a very heavy defeat

Past renewals show

Horses running within 47 days
Beaten 17 or more lengths last time
Have a 0-42 record in this race

COKO BEACH has this profile
ENJOY D'ALLEN also shares it

Some may be underraced

LONGHOUSE PET is an 11yo
Has just 1 bad run in 275 days

GEVREY one bad run in 328 days

KNOCKIEL SYNGE is underaced

WELL BUOY is a 6 year old 
He just looks too young and raw

STEALTHY TOM a 10yo
Won this race back in 2023

Don't have a strong objection
But coming from a hurdle race
Coming up from a 2m 4f race
Does not help his profile at all

Not a negative
But does not fit this best profile

Horses under 12 years old
Coming from Cheltenham
In Decembers Cross Country 
Starting under 33/1 in that race
Under 22 chase races
Have a 6-15 record in this

4 horses have this profile

VANILLIER
THE GOFFER
CHEMICAL ENERGY
THREE BY TWO

Good chance one of these win

THE GOFFER has a penalty
Not been well placed here
Given it was for a 2023 victory
Market suggests second string

THREE BY TWO is a mare
None have won this race yet
Comes from quite a small yard

VANILLIER could be one
Looks a Grand National prep here

CHEMICAL ENERGY is a 9yo
Has plenty of class rated 145
Another maybe heading to Aintree

Like my shortlist

But have to guess 
  
Selection
 
£4.25 Each Way VANILLIER 6/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet CHEMICAL ENERGY 13/2 
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)








Southwell 3.50

7/2 Bobby Socks, 5/1 Bread And Butter
6/1 Shared 7/1 The Winslow Boy, 8/1 Whatsupwithyou
10/1 Stratton Oakmont, 10/1 Toonagh Warrior
10/1 Whatsyourproblem, 14/1 Shantwopointfive
20/1 Churchills Boy, 20/1 D'Jo Dela Barriere.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Horses rated 0-122

BOBBY SOCKS is favourite
Don't doubt he has the ability
But raced just once in 578 days

Had missed 16 months
Ran well in his comeback run
But he is going up 4f in distance
His profile is predictably unsafe

The older more exposed horses

Are usually worth opposing

Looked at similar races

January and February
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f to 2m 5f
Class 6 and higher grade
Horses aged 10 or more
Over 24 hurdle races
Return a 1-180 record

They won at shorter trips
Some did at longer trips
But only a 1-180 record 
Over similar trips to this

Two horses fail this
Both look resistible

BREAD AND BUTTER one of them 
WHATSUPWITHYOU is another one

CHURCHILLS BOY is an 8 year old
Faces a demonic 666 days absence
Might pop occasionally they have done
There has been some money for him
But it is hardly a bet enticing profile

SHANTWOPOINTFIVE is a mare
Just the one run in over 8 months
Quite raw not enough safeguards 
D'JO DELA BARRIERE is unsafe
Been chasing and lacks positives

WHATSYOURPROBLEM is a 7yo
Handicap debut with 66 days off
Has a chance if he can improve

SHARED is a 6 year old
Big weight and 91 days off

Similar races show
Horses under 7 years old
Over 10 hurdle races
Absent over 47 days
Return a 0-33 record
SHARED is the next to try

THE WINSLOW BOY a 6yo
Won a novice hurdle in November 
Hammered on his handicap debut
Has 45 days off and 11st 10lbs
There are more likely winners

STRATTON OAKMONT a 9yo
Exposed and pulled up last time
This is easier could bounce back
But he has lost momentum after it

TOONAGH WARRIOR

Has a well balanced profile

Not too exposed

Not too inexperienced

He is fit with 5 races this season

He has been inconvenienced
In a lot of his most recent runs

Ran quite well over 3m last time
Given he was up a mile in distance

His previous race at Ascot over 2m
He was going down a mile in distance

He's been messed around in trip

He stays and proven at this track

Plenty with fewer positives in this

Feels fair value in a winnable race

Selection

TOONAGH WARRIOR 6/1

Each Way


1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)

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