9 Previews
1 Account Bet
 
  

Account Bet

Navan 1.42 

GRINGO D'AUBRELLE 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




Final Deliberations

9 Previews
4 Aintree
3 Sandown
1 Navan
1 Wetherby


Starting with the Becher Chase


Aintree 2.40 

£4.50 Each Way GALIA DES LITEAUX 11/2-5/1

£1.00 Win Saver VAL DANCER 9/1-10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

It's quite a predictable selection
Many others feel the same way
Not flawless none of these are
But is an option for the acc bet
 
Far from an easy message to do
With non runners price changes
All the habitual Saturday problems

There is always the option to wait
Have the account bet on Sunday
I've found that's rarely a bad idea

Settled on this selection



Navan 1.42 

GRINGO D'AUBRELLE 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4



One of those bets
I can not be sure he will perform 
But liked him on video last time
Lots of negatives against others
And he is clearly well treated










 
Preview Selections 
 
Aintree 12.24 
£4.00 Each Way The Clonmel Kid 8/1-15/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Princesse Milania 5/1-9/2

Navan 1.42 
Gringo d'Aubrelle 7/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Wetherby 1.10 
Caballo De Guerra 5/2 
Each Way 

Aintree 2.05 
£6.00 Win Bet Scarlet Moon 6/1
£3.00 Win Bet Bibe Mus 2/1
£1.00 Win Bet Lord 10/1
 
Sandown 2.25  
Glynn Brae 9/4-5/2 
Win Bet

Aintree 2.40  
£4.50 Each Way Galia Des Liteaux 11/2-5/1 
£1.00 Win Saver Val Dancer 9/1-10/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 

Sandown 3.00 
£8.00 Win Bet L'Eau du Sud 3/1-11/4 
£2.00 Win Bet Jonbon 7/2-100/30

Aintree 3.15 
Act Of Authority 4/1-7/2 
Each Way
 
Sandown 3.35 
£7.00 Win Bet Hung Jury 11/1-12/1 
£3.00 Win Bet O'Connell 3/1-11/4




  






PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 


Aintree 12.24

7/2 Glance Of Glory, 7/2 Top Guy, 4/1 Princesse Milania
5/1 Sandscape, 15/2 Dixie Mafia, 8/1 The Great Escape
12/1 The Clonmel Kid, 14/1 Bombay Pete.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 3m

Horses rated 0-109

GLANCE OF GLORY is topweight
Just 3  career runs and 12 stone
He looks a bit on the raw side

Go back to 2009
May to December
Novice Handicap hurdles
Run over 2m 6f and more 
With more than 5 runners
Horses with under 4 runs
From 3m 1f or shorter
Running within 2 months
With 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record so far
GLANCE OF GLORY fails this

DIXIE MAFIA is unsafe
Coming from a 2m hurdle

December
Novice Handicap hurdles
Run over 3 miles and more 
Horses with under 5 runs
From a 2 mile hurdle
Have a 0-35 record
DIXIE MAFIA is rejected from 2m
BOMBAY PETE also fails this

THE GREY ESCAPE is a 5yo
Poor last run stable struggling
Would see others more likely

SANDSCAPE is a 5yo
He has had 8 hurdle races
Bit more exposed than some

October to December
Novice Handicap hurdles
Run over 3 miles and more 
With over 6 runners
Horses aged 5
Over 7 hurdle runs
Carrying 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-19 record in them
SANDSCAPE fails this angle
Does not make him a negative
Others may be more progressive
And his sires record in unproven
He has bred 1 winner over 3 miles
But that was on faster ground
 
TOP GUY is a 5 year old
Fit and well no profile issues
But quite a small cheap horse
Would be easy to overrate him
Just because Dan Skelton trains

PRINCESSE MILANIA is a mare
She is fit and running  quite well
Recently downgraded stables
May not be any improvement
   
THE CLONMEL KID is a 6yo
 
Don't have a big profile issue

He's coming up 4f in trip today

Can not be sure he will stay
But he should do on pedigree

Taking the position

If we can beat three horses

Glance of Glory the topweight
And both the two rank outsiders
 
THE CLONMEL KID rated 106
Would only face a 0-98 class field
And this extra trip could suit him
Going to sneak in a saver as well

Selection

£4.00 Each Way THE CLONMEL KID 8/1-15/2

£2.00 Win Bet PRINCESSE MILANIA 5/1-9/2








Wetherby 1.10

6/4 Starmount, 3/1 Ade Boy, 3/1 Caballo De Guerra
9/1 Liberty Coach, 10/1 Two Brothers, 16/1 Killycarn
20/1 Mr Mojo Risin, 33/1 Colonel Jack, Yermanthere
50/1 Gaelic Glow, 100/1 Loulou Madrik, Madame La Papillon
100/1 Melrose Jack, The Final Brig.

Novice Hurdle 2m

STARMOUNT is unraced

ADE BOY a 4yo from a bumper
Has not had a run in 77 days

As filthy an idea as it is

Given the frame of the race

CABALLO DE GUERRA

With hurdling experience

Winning at Kelso

Running 5th at Cheltenham

Does appeal as a Burglary bet
Detestable as some will find it
 
Selection

CABALLO DE GUERRA 5/2

Each Way







Navan 1.42

11/2 Fascile Mode, 6/1 Grimaud, 7/1 Ayiko
8/1 Paddy's Milestone, 10/1 Buachaillbocht, 10/1 Ottizzini
10/1 Yeats Star, 12/1 Ashdale Bob, 12/1  Buddy One
12/1 Koori Star, 14/1 Gringo d'Aubrelle, Timmy Tuesday
16/1 Eagles Reign, 16/1 I Love My Baie.
  
3m 1f Handicap Hurdle

Listed Class race

Horses rated 0-150

7 past renewals

Just following race angles here

Unusual renewal this year
So many come from a chase

December
Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Horses from a chase
Beaten in that chase
Return a 0-89 record

Go back to 1997
May to December
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 6f or more
Listed and Graded class 
Horses from a chase
Running within 6 months
Beaten in that chase
Return a 0-132 record 

The following fail both angles

BUDDY ONE
ASHDALE BOB
FASCILE MODE
YEATS STAR
OTTIZZINI
KOORI STAR

EAGLES REIGN lacks positives

I LOVE MY BAIE is rejected
Beaten too far too recently
TIMMY TUESDAY ran 13 days ago
Pulled up and not easy to like
 
GRIMAUD is a 5 year old
He smells quite fancied 
He is going up half a mile
Stamina may be a challenge
 
Horses sired by Zoffany
Running over hurdles
Ground softer than good
Running over 2m 5f or more
Have a winless 0-52 record
GRIMAUD the 53rd to try
Not selecting him on that

BUACHAILLBOCHT is a 7yo
He has not raced in months
He is unsafe on sire stats

Horses sired by Blue Bresil
Running over 2m 3f and more
Class 4 and higher grade
Absent more than 78 days
Have a 0-29 record so far
BUACHAILLBOCHT fails this

AYIKO a similar problem

He is a 6yo
Not raced in 228 days
His sire may not be safe

Horses sired by Champs Elysees
Running over 2m 4f and more
Class 4 and higher grade
Absent more than 78 days
Have a 0-26 record so far
AYIKO would be the first

PADDY'S MILESTONE 
 
Has more positives than most
But he has also shortened up
And is is going up half a mile

Tempted to make him a saver

He is out of the handicap

May also put 2lbs overweight up
And we have lost some value


GRINGO D'AUBRELLE

Unexposed

Will stay this far

Not an easy horse to read

But on his hurdle runs
He is very well treated

Selection

GRINGO D'AUBRELLE 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Aintree 2.05

7/4 Treasure Planet, 5/2 Edelak, 7/2 Bibe Mus
9/1 Scarlet Moon, 12/1 Lord, 16/1 Diamond Jim
20/1 Only One Blue

Juvenile Hurdle 

Listed Race

Lots of known unknowns
As you'd expect with 3yo's

Past renewals show

Every winner
Had hurdling experience
EDELAK does not have that

Every winner bar 1
Ran in the previous 8 weeks

They all ran within 92 days
EDELAK has longer off the track

Might win anyway for Skelton
But he is not like past winners

TREASURE PLANET respected
But flat bred has not done much
Only faced 1 rival under 33/1 last time
And that horse was not fit or ready 

DIAMOND JIM is inexperienced

LORD has won 3 hurdle races
He brings something to the table
Going to make him second saver

BIBE MUS is a saver
May be the most likely winner
But he is short enough now

SCARLET MOON looks fine
Overpriced on achievements

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet SCARLET MOON 6/1

£3.00 Win Bet BIBE MUS 2/1

£1.00 Win Bet LORD 10/1






Sandown 2.25

7/4 Knickerbockerglory, 100/30 Glynn Brae
11/2 Go Dante, 7/1 Afadil,  14/1 Honky Tonk Highway
14/1 Metier 16/1 Goshen, 25/1 L'Astroboy 
 
2m Handicap Hurdle

Listed Class race

KNICKERBOCKERGLORY

Won this race last season
But it was in a smaller field
He is a year older as a 9yo
And has more weight too

Go back to 1997
December
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
With over 8 runners
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 14 hurdle runs
Absent over 128 days
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-69 record
KNICKERBOCKERGLORY fails this

Not a negative on that angle
But not for me at the price

Opposing the oldest horses

GOSHEN first time out
LUCKY ONE a 10 year old
METIER from a flat race
 
GO DANTE is a 9 year old
Beaten 67 lengths 24 days ago
On his first race of the season
Just looks risky after that run

L'ASTROBOY absent too long

HONKY TONK HIGHWAY is out
As a mare pulling up last time
  
AFADIL is a 6yo
Worried he has 24 hurdle runs
Very exposed for a young horse

Go back to 2004
Handicap Hurdles
Class 2 and higher
Run over 2m 2f or shorter
Horses under7 years old
More than 20 hurdle runs
Return a 0-74 record in them
AFADIL fails this angle

GLYNN BRAE

First choice

Wanted to go each way
But 3 non runners stop this
 
Selection

GLYNN BRAE 9/4-5/2

Win Bet






Aintree 2.40

5/1 Mr Vango, 11/2 Galia Des Liteaux, 13/2 Gaboriot
7/1 Bill Baxter, 8/1 Bioluminescence, 9/1 Westerninthepark
9/1 White Rhino, 10/1 Excello, 12/1 Val Dancer
16/1 Monbeg Genius, 25/1 Roi Mage, 25/1 Twig
33/1 Mahons Glory.
 
Becher Chase

Handicap Chase 3m 2f
 
MR VANGO has topweight
He tries to win this rated 152

22 of the previous 23 winners  
Were officially rated 148 or lower
MR VANGO fails this rated 152
 
Also has 266 days off the track 
He fails this Aintree Generic stat

Go back to 1997
Aintree
Handicap Chases
With over 8 runners
Any class of race
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 9 or more
Morse than 9 chase runs
Absent over 89 days
Carrying 11st 9lbs or more
Return a 0-47 record in them
MR VANGO is the 48th to try 
  
Horses with 11st 8lbs or more
Won just 3 renewals since 1997
These winners came years ago

Horses with 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-43 record since 1997
Running in fields of 12 or more

No horse under 9 years old 
Has won this with 11st 8lbs or more

BIOLUMINESCENCE is a 7 year old
Fails this angle carrying 11st 9lbs
The stables horses are out of form

Seasonal Debutants
Won 4 of the last 13 renewals
These 4 all had 10st 9lbs or less
Those with more were 0-26
The following horses fail this

MR VANGO 
MONBEG GENIUS

The 4 seasonal debutant to win
Were rated 142 135 133 138
Both above horses rated higher

Around 5-20 chase runs
Would be the best range
ROI MAGE has 50 chases
Easy to ignore as a 13yo

Horses that raced this season
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Beaten over 10 lengths in that
Have a 2-96 record since 1998
  
WHITE DANCER fails this
Beaten 21 lengths last time out
One of the least exposed in this
Happy enough with just 5 chase runs
But he did only finish 3 of those
And not ideal he is sired by Doyen

Horses sired by Doyen
Running over 3m 1f and more
Listed and Graded races
Have a 0-44 record in them
WHITE DANCER fails this
 
EXCELLO is a 6 year old
Youngest horse his age are 0-12
He also fails the following angle

Horses aged under 9
Running this season
Coming from 2m 6f or shorter
Have a 0-29 record in this race
The following horses fail this
 
EXCELLO
BIOLUMINESCENCE

GABORIOT is a 9 year old

Has 35 career starts
Has 26 chase starts

Worryingly exposed for this
Lowest rated horse off 125

Go back to 2003
Horses with over 10 career runs
Rated 129 or lower
Have a 0-37 record in this
GABORIOT fails this angle

What bothers me statistically
He comes from a 2m 5f race
Having already had 26 chase runs

This is a crazy angle
Go back to 1998
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 1f or more
Listed and Graded races
With more than 8 runners
Horses from under 2m 6f
With over 13 chase runs
Have a horrible 1-233 record
Those absent over 10 days
Return a 0-219 record in them
GABORIOT fails this
 
MAHONS GLORY looks wrong

TWIG is 10 years old
He does have positives
But would prefer better ground
Maybe even a smaller field 
Never won in this class before
Never won off his current rating
  
WESTERNINTHEPARK is a 7yo
Lightly raced with just 13 races
 
Horses Aged 7  
Won just 2 renewals since 1993
Have a 2-46 record since 1998
 
Horses aged 7
Under 19 career starts
Have a weak 1-33 record
Only winner Silver Birch in 2004
Who won his previous race
WESTERNINTHEPARK did not
Not ruled out but feels a bit raw
 
BILL BAXTER has a chance
He does fail this race angle

Past renewals show
Horses under 11 years old
Over 14 chase runs
Just 1 run that season
From a Non graded race
Return a 0-44 record
BILL BAXTER fails this

Comes from a hurdle race
Not ideal but it has been done
May need a career best
But has good track form

Felt this was interesting

Go back to 2010
Graded handicap Chases
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or older
More than 9 chase runs
Coming from a hurdle race
That was not listed or graded
Running just once in 3 months
Have a poor 0-94 record
BILL BAXTER has this profile

VAL DANCER is an 8yo
Beaten 15 lengths first time out
It was unrealistic on his pedigree
To expect him to win last time
Over 3m 4f on seasonal debut 
He was eased once beaten there
Won last years Welsh National
Maybe going to that target again
Feel he has to be on the staking
  
GALIA DES LITEAUX a 9yo mare  
She fails this breeding statistic 

Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-74 record so far
GALIA DES LITEAUX fails this

Having said that
This is just short of 3m 2f
Not a big field on good to soft

She has a Welsh National 5th
Placed in another Graded race
Over 3m 5f so there is an argument
She has proven stamina in the class
She is also looking well handicapped

Could go each way

Decided to go win and savers

Selection
 
£4.50 Each Way GALIA DES LITEAUX 11/2-5/1

£1.00 Win Saver VAL DANCER 9/1-10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






 
Sandown 3.00

10/11 Il Etait Temps, 9/4 L'Eau du Sud
7/2 Jonbon, 25/1 Libberty Hunter
66/1 Boothill.

Tingle Creek Chase

Don't normally cover this

Looks a 3 horse race

IL ETAIT TEMPS 

Willie Mullins
Top on official ratings

Is there any reason to oppose ? 
Possibly he does drop down 5f

Coming from 2m 5f not a positive
But Kauto Star managed this
Sizing Europe won this from 3m
Could easily win and may do so
But there is a better profile

Horses aged 6-7-8
Coming from the Shloer Chase 
Having 7 or 8 previous chase runs
Beaten under 5 lengths in that race
Have a W W 4 W W record in this

L'EAU DU SUD has this profile

He won the Shloer Chase 

JONBON was 2nd beaten at odds on
He missed out on the above profile

As he is a 9 year old
Has had 18 chase runs

Not many past winners 
Were as exposed as he is

IL ETAIT TEMPS rated 6lbs higher
Does have an edge on official ratings
And is the rightful favourite in this
 
L'EAU DU SUD the edge on profile
At the prices going with that option

JONBON is my third choice
But at the prices would be silly
Not to have a saver around 7/2

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet L'EAU DU SUD 3/1-11/4

£2.00 Win Bet JONBON 7/2-100/30


 




Aintree 3.15

4/1 Bear Market, 9/2 Rambo T, 5/1 Wellington Arch
11/2 Act Of Authority, 6/1 Rubber Ball, 9/1 Sunray Shadow
12/1 Kepler's Law, Stream Of Stars, 16/1 Cracking Rhapsody
20/1 Brewin'upastorm.
 
Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

14 Past renewals

Horses rated 0-145

BREWIN'UPASTORM topweight
Rejected as a 12yo off 588 days

CRACKING RHAPSODY a 6yo
He is the 3rd horse in the weights
Did not to nearly enough last time

WELLINGTON ARCH a 6yo 
He is a seasonal debutant
Jonjo O'Neill is out of form
And he fails a sire statistic

Horses sired by Blue Bresil
Running over 2m 3f and more
Class 4 and higher grade
Absent more than 80 days
Have a 0-29 record so far
WELLINGTON ARCH fails this

No horse with over 7 runs
Has won this absent over 43 days
WELLINGTON ARCH fails this

RAMBO T has one flaw 
Exposed with 22 lifetime runs

14 past renewals

Horses with over 16 runs
Have a weak 1-56 record

Horses with over 12 hurdles
Have a weak 1-37 record

RAMBO T fails both statistics
STREAM OF STARS does

KEPLERS LAW ran last week
Beaten 48 lengths looks wrong

RUBBER BALL is a 5yo
Beaten 65 lengths on comeback run
Might have been in a Graded race
But form and fitness questions

SUNRAY SHADOW a 6yo
Comes up 4 furlongs in trip
Well beaten on seasonal debut
Clearly was not fit that day
Will he need another run ?

BEAR MARKET has 5 runs
Does look a bit on the raw side
Not too unlike the 2021 winner
But he is going up 2 class grades

WELLINGTON ARCH - Non runner

ACT OF AUTHORITY

Has the least problematic profile

Not the biggest of horses

But proven in similar handicaps

Selection

ACT OF AUTHORITY 4/1-7/2

Each Way







Sandown 3.35

5/2 O'Connell, 7/2 Tanganyika, 9/2 Ask Brewster
5/1 Invincible Nao, 6/1 Rivers Corner, 9/1 Hung Jury
12/1 Jupiter Allen
 
London National

Handicap Chase 3m 4f

7 runners

Not ideal no each way

The last 23 winners of this
Were all aged 7 or older

Horses under 7
Have a 0-12 record
Not conclusive to be fair
But a worry none have won

ASK BREWSTER is a 6yo
Now on a career high mark
Going to look for alternatives

JUPITER ALLEN a 6yo
Not safe running just yesterday

The past 23 renewals show
No horses have won this race
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Two horses try to overcome this

INVINCIBLE NAO
RIVERS CORNER

No horse under 8 years old
Has won this from 2m 7f or shorter
The same horses fail this as well

INVINCIBLE NAO
RIVERS CORNER

TANGANYIKA is topweight
Well beat on seasonal debut
We opposed him that day

Breeding stats are unsafe
But just about acceptable

No horse under 8 years old
Has won with under 8 chase runs
All 21 that tried were beaten
Those aged 7 like him 0-11
TANGANYIKA fails this angle
RIVERS CORNER does too

No horse under 8 years old
Has won with over 11st 10lbs
TANGANYIKA has 12 stone
There are angles against him

HUNG JURY has positives

No convinced about stamina
But in a small field I'd pass him

Not sure about a 10 year old
Who has only had 4 chase runs
But as a big price in a small field
With some stronger negatives
Going to put him on the staking

O'CONNELL

Felt he had most positives

Only main concern about him
He won the 2024 Eider Chase 
Could this be a prep for that ? 
We can not judge that properly

He looks the most likely winner

Going in this direction

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet HUNG JURY 11/1-12/1

£3.00 Win Bet O'CONNELL 3/1-11/4


*******************************************************
*******************************************************