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Final Deliberations


Took a day off yesterday

Decided to take another one

Not a normal message today




Done 27 messages in 28 days
Before dropping a day yesterday
Not done any prep work today
So Going to start fresh tomorrow


Quick scan highlighted two horses
  
Southwell 12.55

STALLONE 100/30

Each Way




Southwell 2.05

DICKO THE LEGEND 7/1-8/1

Each Way





They would have featured

If this had been a normal day

Been working on future races

Races I plan to cover shortly


Starting back properly tomorrow






Yesterday's Summary
  
Monday was the last message
Sussex National was the plan 
Came with an unexpected twist
Unanswered Prayers the bet
Annoyingly fell at the first fence
Our only chance of rescuing it
Was the £2 saver Invincible Nao  
Raced for over 3m in last place
But he came though and won it
Never had a chance of winning
But we got our stakes returned
  

 




FUTURE BETTING ANGLES    


Aintree Grand National

52 days to the race

Weights have been released

Will get into this shortly enough

In the meantime this weekend

Two Grand National trials

Saturday 
Haydock 3.15
Oddschecker Grand National Trial 

Sunday 
Punchestown 3.10 
QuinnBet Grand National Trial
 
Statistics below for both races




Ante Post Statistics

Saturday February 15th

Haydock 3.15

Grand National Trial 


4/1 Jubilee Express 9/2 Val Dancer 6/1 Yeah Man
7/1 Royale Pagaille 7/1 Git Maker 8/1 Fortunate Man
10/1 Galia Des Liteaux 10/1 Famous Bridge
12/1 Fontaine Collonges 12/1 Iron Bridge 12/1 Apple Away
12/1 Gericault Roque 12/1 Where It All Began 
16/1 Sine Nomine
 
Grand National Trial

Handicap Chase 3m 4f
 
Official Ratings of Past winners

133 148 140 149 136 148 146 
146 144 139 131 129 138 149 
143 143 144 121 126 135 136

No horse won this rated 150 +
All 25 that tried were beaten

Horses aged under 9
Rated 147 or higher are 0-14

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

8 13 3 20 24 7 17 
8 11 11 14 5 11 13 
11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3

21 of the last 23 winners
Had under 18 chase races
 
Very few had under 5 chases
None that were aged 8 did this
 
The 2002 winner had 5 runs
Previous winners since 2006
Had at least 11 career starts

Only 5 past winners of this race
Had under 14 lifetime starts
They were aged 7 9 9 9 10 

Horses with over 22 career starts
Absent more than 44 days
Have a 0-29 record in this race

Since 1998
Horses aged 7 are 3-39
Winning in 2004 2007 2024
All were lightly raced chasers
And came from Class A races
With 10st 12lbs or less weight
 
Two past winners from Novices
Both of them won 14 days before

Past winners
Had the following runs this season
2 2 2 3 2 1 5 1 3 0 5 2
2 3 4 2 5 3 1 4 0 3 3 6

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 3 months do win
But they all had under 12 chases
Horses with 12 or more chase runs
Will probably need 2 + recent runs

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 3 months 
Finishing 3rd or worse last time
Have a 0-22 record in this race
 
Past winners
Had the following absences
56 53 27 42 42 28 14 77 49 34 301 
41 53 42 54 44 51 14 44 91 49 14 35

Not many had recent races
Horses with over 7 chase runs
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Completed the course last time
But who also failed to win the race
Running within the last 41 days
Have a 0-73 record in this race
 
Horses from the Welsh National
Won 6 of the past renewals
They were all aged 8-9-10
Most had finished in the top 9
They all had 15-23 career runs
They all had 5-13 chase runs
 
Go back to 2004
Horses under 9 years old
Under 20 lifetimes runs
Under 11 Chase runs
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 1-46 record in this

Go back to 2013
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or more
Listed and graded races
Horses aged 10 or more
Running off 149 or higher
Have a 0-137 record in them




Ante Post Statistics

Sunday February 16th

Punchestown 3.10

QuinnBet Grand National Trial
 
Grand National Trial

Handicap Chase 3m 3f

Listed Race

16 Renewals 

Past winners of this race
Won with these absences
36 24 17 16 31 17 8 40 
64 63 17 22 63 30 17 32

The longest break was 64 days
Similar races at other courses
Argue longer absences unsafe
 
Past winners
Had the following career runs
15 27 22 11 12 18 42 
18 10 11 14 16 12 8 33
 
The least experienced winner
Had 8 previous lifetime starts

4 Winners had over 18 runs

12 winners had under 19 runs 
They all had 8-18 career runs


Past winners
Had the following chase runs
7 17 11 4 3 9 27 8 
3 11 3 14 4 3 10 20

13 of the previous 16 winners
Had under 15 chase starts
  
Horses with 11st 5bs or more
Have a 0-22 record in this race
 
Horses with under 17 runs
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-27 record in this race

Horses under 8 years old
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-14 record in this race

Horses from 2m 6f or shorter
Have a weak 4-73 record
Those aged 10 or more 0-20
Those with 10st 10lbs + 0-17
 
Past winners
Had these runs since August
3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 5 3 4 4 2
All had 2 + runs that year

Go back to 2000
January to March
Run over 3m 3f and more
Run in class 2 or higher
Horses aged 7
Over 8 chase runs
Carrying 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 1-45 record in them
 
The 2019 2022 2023 winners
Came from the Thyestes chase
  
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