8 Previews
0 Account Bet 
 
  

Final Deliberations 
  
 
8 Previews
6 Punchestown
2 Ascot


It is quite a heavy message
Did not find much at Ascot
Punchestown offered more

Lots of staking variety today
I liked the staking in the first
 
Ascot 1.40 

£6.50 Win Bet DOCKLANDS 3/1

£3.50 Place Bet WITCH HUNTER 7/4

The place saver the fittest profile
Targeted to get in the first 1-2-3
To make sure the bet doesn't lose


 
Punchestown 4.15 

JASMIN DE VAUX 13/8-7/4  

Win Bet
 
Bit short to get excited about
So will watch him with interest
I might bet him each way 7/4
Which will leave some uneasy



Willie Mullins

Provides 4 of the 8 selections
So we will be at his mercy a bit

Especially in this final preview 
Where were are on two of his


Punchestown 6.05

£4.00 Each Way ADAMANTLY CHOSEN 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Win Bet BLUE LORD 4/1
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4 

BLUE LORD is the class horse
Going to make him a saver bet
Different class on his best form 
Suspect Mullins does not know
If we will see him return to that 
Neither do I so just a saver bet
Adamantly Chosen clearly risky
But been a negative in every run
And if he clicks he could win this


Hard to nominate one best bet
I thought these 3 were superior



Ascot 1.40 
£6.50 Win Bet Docklands 3/1
£3.50 Place Bet Witch Hunter 7/4
  
Punchestown 4.15 
Jasmin De Vaux 13/8-7/4  
Win Bet

Punchestown 6.05  
£4.00 Each Way Adamantly Chosen 12/1-14/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Blue Lord 4/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4







Tomorrow

No Message 

Planned this a few days ago
Got stuff I can not get out of

Long overdue taking a day off
Will help weekend messages








Preview Selections  
 
 
Ascot 1.40 
£6.50 Win Bet Docklands 3/1
£3.50 Place Bet Witch Hunter 7/4
  
Punchestown 2.30 
£6.00 Win Bet Fairyland Opera 6/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Hamsiyann 6/4 (1-2-3-4-5)

Punchestown 3.05
£4.00 Each Way Coral River 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Thisistheway 12/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Kish Bank 7/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4 
 
Punchestown 3.40 
£8.50 Win Bet Got Glory 11/4 
£1.50 Win Bet Blue Mosque 13/2

Punchestown 4.15 
Jasmin De Vaux 13/8-7/4  
Win Bet

Ascot 4.30
£4.50 Each Way Toimy Son 11/2-6/1
£1.00 Win Bet Talis Evolvere 14/1

Punchestown 5.30 
Galopin Des Champs 1/1-10/11 
Win Bet

Punchestown 6.05  
£4.00 Each Way Adamantly Chosen 12/1-14/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Blue Lord 4/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4






Yesterday's Summary


Punchestown only message
We got off to a luckless start
Haggard smashed into a rail
The rail completely dislodged  
Fralimonti Bilbery was caught
Knocked both out of the race
Too early to predict the effect
But both were going quite well
It looked a random accident 
Which got both horses beaten
Almuhit each way was second
Nominated him as my best bet
Pleased how well he battled
But caught by a 50/1 outsider
Meant stakes back no better
So that was a little frustrating
Wilful each way also placed 
Shortlisted five 5 horses in this
Finishing 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th
Basically we got the race right
But only returned our stakes
Ballyburn failed to deliver again
Most of race looked the winner 
Beaten by his 22/1 stablemate
He may have gone off too fast
Nothing special but all ran well
Never got the run of the balls
But it was competitive enough

 
 
  



PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
 



Ascot 1.40

3/1 Docklands, 7/2 Sardinian Warrior, 9/2 Unquestionable
8/1 Phantom Flight, 10/1 Witch Hunter, 12/1 Harper's Ferry
12/1  Royal Dubai, 14/1 Checkandchallenge, 16/1 Sir Busker
16/1 Tyrrhenian Sea, 20/1 Meydaan.

Paradise Stakes

Listed race over 8f

Not done this race in years

PHANTOM FLIGHT is a 6yo
Has the best official rating
But with a break over this trip
This may well be a prep race

CHECKANDCHALLENGE a 6yo
Surely beaten too far 8 days ago

WITCH HUNTER is drawn widest
Would not risk him in stall 11-11

TYRRHENIAN SEA is a 7yo
Not for me without a recent run

SARDINIAN WARRIOR a 4yo
First time out with 4 career runs
Last years winner had 2 races
Before that none had under 6 runs
Last years winner legtimises him

Does not make him the selection
Interested in this sire statistic

Horses sired by Saxon Warrior
Running over a mile and further
Listed and Graded race
Absent over 50 days are 0-14
SARDINIAN WARRIOR fails this
Not conclusive but none have won

DOCKLANDS is a 5yo
Profile fine and second last year
Only 5 runners in last years race
Not sure I can trust the trainer
To produce him in peak fitness

UNQUESTIONABLE is a 4yo
First time out he is a player
His draw does worry me a bit

Go back to 2011
Ascot 8f races
With under 11 runners
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent over 38 days
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-19 record so far

DOCKLANDS is better drawn
Going with him over Unquestionable
But I like the split stake option here

WITCH HUNTER is a place bet 
Badly drawn but 3 recent runs 
His fitness could secure a place

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet DOCKLANDS 3/1

£3.50 Place Bet WITCH HUNTER 7/4







Punchestown 2.30

6/1 Portnacoo, 13/2 Ballysax Hank, 8/1 Cloonainra
8/1  Nouvotic, 10/1 Ira Hayes, 10/1 Showurappreciation
12/1 Giant Haystacks, 14/1 Hamsiyann, 14/1 Howdoyalikeherhome
16/1 Birmingham Alabama, 16/1 Kap Vert, 16/1 She's A Fine Wine
16/1 Smooth Scotch, 20/1 American Sniper, Beyond Your Dreams
20/1 Fairyland Opera, 20/1 In For The Night, 25/1 Cobra Queen
25/1 Kimy, Whiskeywealth, 33/1 Doctor Churchill, 33/1 Hands On
33/1 Mister Beeton, 40/1 Stay Gold, 40/1 Thanksforthehelp.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

First impression

Minimum stakes 

Keep the preview short

A few years ago
Older experienced horses
Were winning most renewals
Things have changed now

The last 7 winners
Had the following hurdle runs

4 6 3 5 5 17 5

Opposing horses
With over 10 hurdle runs

There are several fancied
I'm interested in watching
But find hard to support

BALLSAX HANK the favourite
Comes from a recent chase
My angles do not like that

BEYOND YOUR DREAMS 
She is only a 4yo filly
She's raced once in 137 days
Find it hard to support her

SHOWYOURAPPRECIATION
Has raced just once since 2023
 
Best recent profile

Horses aged 5-6-7
Under 13 career starts
Under 9 hurdle races
Running within 7 weeks
Coming from a hurdle
That was short of 3 miles
Finishing 1-2-3-4 in this

Horses with this profile
Won this in these years 
2024 2022 2019 
2017 2014 2011  
 
Based on this profile
And a few other angles
Shortlisting these 

FAIRYLAND OPERA
CLOONAINRA
HOWDOYALIKEHERHOME
THE NAGGER REIDY 

THE NAGGER REIDY a reserve
Likely to be a non runner later
 
Decided to split stake win place

HAMSIYANN is the place saver
I wanted under 13 career starts
Forgivable he has had just 14
We opposed him at Musselburgh
Where he did not stay 3 miles
Last time out he dropped to 2m
But he was badly impeded there

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet FAIRYLAND OPERA 6/1

£4.00 Place Bet HAMSIYANN 6/4








Punchestown 3.05

7/2 Champagne Jury, 5/1 Kish Bank, 5/1 Millforce
11/2 Scalpnagoon, 6/1 Coral River, 13/2 Downmexicoway
14/1 Ellis Mor, 16/1 A Tipp For Gold, 16/1 Scotcantou
25/1 Rockymountainbleu, Thisistheway, 50/1 Keep Kool Coko
50/1 One And Only, 66/1 Happy Me,  66/1 Littlefoot
100/1 Mi Lucky Cailin.

Auction Hurdle 2m 4f

Only 5 Past renewals

Official ratings show

Two horses are clear

DOWNMEXICOWAY rated 133

MILLFORCE rated 132

Both are lightly raced horses
Which is what you want in this
But they might be underaced

DOWNMEXICOWAY top rated
Has raced just once in 125 days
All past winners were far busier
Had at least 2 runs in 12 weeks

MILLFORCE has 101 days off
Longer than all past winners

Past winners career runs 5 8 4 4 5
Past winners hurdle runs 3 4 1 4 3 

No horse has won
With over 8 career runs
Several outsiders fail this
A TIPP FOR GOLD does too

None have won aged 7 or more
ROCKYMOUNTAINBLEU fails this

Horses aged 6 are best

5 year olds have won this race
Won 1 renewal in a 1-17 record
Some 5 year olds look unsafe
SCOTCANTOU is one of those
With just the 1 run in 151 days
SCALPNAGOON  another 5yo
Was beaten too far last time out
ELLIS MOR an underaced 5yo

CHAMPAGNE JURY a 6yo
Has a very raw profile here

2 lifetime runs
1 hurdle run

Past winners of this race
Had 5 8 4 4 5 career runs
May overcome that and win
Clearly fancied in the betting
But he is too short for me

I like Three 6 year olds
Who had the right profile

KISH BANK
CORAL RIVER
THISISTHEWAY

Need luck with the staking

Selection

£4.00 Each Way CORAL RIVER 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet THISISTHEWAY 12/1-14/1

£1.00 Win Bet KISH BANK 8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4 







 
Punchestown 3.40

3/1 American Mike, 7/2 Got Glory, 4/1 Kaid d'Authie
6/1 Fad Eadrainn, 8/1 Blue Mosque, 10/1 Locked Box
20/1 Centreofattention, Champagne Kid, 20/1 Saint Le Fort
20/1 Tradecraft

Hurdle race 2m 3f

Specific conditions in this

You must have under 2 hurdle wins
And never placed in a graded hurdle

AMERICAN MIKE is an 8yo

You can look at him two ways
You can argue he is well placed

WIth the highest hurdle rating
And significant class in chases
But he is an 8 year old now
He's ran just once in 109 days
And has had 18 career starts

Past renewals since 2012
Horses with over 10 runs
Have a 0-21 record in this
Two horses fail this statistic

AMERICAN MIKE
FAD EADRAINN

Every past winner
Had at least 2 career starts

CENTREOFATTENTION has 1
He's having his hurdling debut

TRADECRAFT is underraced
Raced just once in 171 days
LOCKED BOX 1 run in 208 days
SAINT LE FORT badly weighted
CHAMPAGNE KID likewise

Willie Mullins
Trains the two top rated
Both have a bit to prove

KAID D'AUTHIE is a 5yo
He pulled up last time out
Also has to carry a penalty

GOT GLORY is a mare
She comes here F F PU
But has 105 days absence
Time to iron out any flaws
She has good history here

BLUE MOSQUE has a fit profile

Ran over 2m 7f just 8 days ago

Could be an advantage 
Equally could hurt his chance
Statistically can't answer that 
Going to make him the saver

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet GOT GLORY 11/4

£1.50 Win Bet BLUE MOSQUE 13/2








Punchestown 4.15
 
5/4 Jasmin De Vaux, 9/4 Honesty Policy
7/1 Cardcounter, 8/1 Familiar Dreams, 10/1 Jarrive De Mee
20/1 Argento Boy, Fleur In The Park
25/1 Luckinthecity.
 
Grade 1 Novice Hurdle (3m)

8 runners

6 of them are 6 year olds 
2 of them are 5 year olds

6 year olds do best
With a numerical advantage
Hope to see a 6yo winner

5 Year olds
Have won this 3 times 
Two were top class horses

Galiec Warrior 
Galopin Des Champ

The other had a fitness edge
Running well 15 days beforehand

CARDCOUNTER is only a 5yo
He has not done enough yet
Never been in a graded race

HONESTY POLICY is a 5yo
He has won a Grade 1 race
But that was over only 2m 4f
His sire's record questionable

Jukebox Jury offspring 
Running over hurdles
Running over 3m and more
In Class 4 or higher
Have a 0-24 record so far
HONESTY POLICY next to try

The sires runners 
In Class 2 or higher
Have not won beyond 2m 4f
All 15 that tried were beaten

HONESTY POLICY might win
But unproven on breeding stats

The 5 year olds have doubts

JARRIVE DE ME is unsafe
Going up a mile in distance
 
Horses with over 9 career runs
Have a modest 1-31 record 
Those going up in distance
Have a 0-19 record in this
The following horses fail
 
FAMILIAR DREAMS
FLEUR IN THE PARK

The "Go to" profile  

Horse aged 6
Under 11 career starts
Between 2-6 hurdle runs
Coming from 2m 4f or more
Running within 53 days
Beaten under 10 lengths
Horses with this profile
Won 11 of the last 13 renewals
Just 1 horse qualifies

JASMIN DE VAUX

Selection
 
JASMIN DE VAUX 13/8-7/4

Win Bet






Ascot 4.30

7/4 My Cloud, 9/2 Mythical Guest, 11/2 Brasil Power
6/1 Toimy Son, 12/1 Great Acclaim, 12/1 Talis Evolvere
16/1 Son, Yantarni, 20/1 Longhaired General, Lunario.

8f Handicap

Apprentice riders

9 past renewals

MY CLOUD is very sexy

Just 3 runs last time out

He has to strikes against him

Will he get home first time out

Horses sired by Blue Point
Running over a mile or more
Have won with an absence
But none have in this class

His inexperience could hurt
Horses with under 5 races
Have a 0-8 record in this race
MY CLOUD fails this as well
At the price opposing him

Other 4 year olds

SON
GREAT ACCLAIM

Did not do enough last time
Older horses do score better

LONGHAIRED GENERAL a 4yo
Does not offer enough either

LUNARIO looks unsafe
Started 33/1 in a lower grade
On seasonal debut last time

If I am right so far

TALIS EVOLVERE rated 97

TOIMY SON rated 96

Only face a 0-84 class field

TOIMY SON ran in the Lincoln
Poor draw failed breeding stats
Which he passes well today 
Having had a recent race

They could have more class
Hoping that could be the answer

Selection

£4.50 Each Way TOIMY SON 11/2-6/1

£1.00 Win Bet TALIS EVOLVERE 14/1






Punchestown 5.30

5/4 Galopin Des Champs, 2/1 Spillane's Tower
4/1 Banbridge, 7/1 Monty's Star

Punchestown Gold Cup

Small field

Covered this race before


GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 
Rated at least 8lbs clear 
Is on a big recover mission
Following his Gold Cup flop

Have some issues with others
  
SPILLANE'S TOWER is a 7yo
He faces 125 days off the track
Trainer James Joseph Mangan  
Has a bad record with absences

His runners in class 4 or higher
When absent over just 52 days
Have a 0-60 record in 20 years
Not  sure how significant that is
But is a clear strike against him

BANBRIDE flopped last time out
He fails this breeding statistic

Horses sired by Doyen
Running over 3m and more
Class 2 and higher grade
Absent more than 44 days
Have a 0-41 record
BANBRIDE 42nd to try
 
MONTYS STAR lowest rated
Could still play a big role here
In a small field of negatives

MONTYS STAR could be a saver

If the favourite was odds against

I would have had that £1 saver
Will leave that decision to you

Selection

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS  1/1-10/11

Win Bet






Punchestown 6.05

6/1 Blue Lord, 13/2 Lightkeeper, 7/1 Lets Go Champ
8/1 James Du Berlais, Must Be Obeyed, 10/1 Mars Harper
10/1 Riaan, 10/1 So Scottish, 14/1 Indiana Jones, Seddon
14/1 The King Of Prs, 16/1 Grange Walk, 16/1 Visionarian
20/1 Adamantly Chosen, 20/1 Fighting Fit

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

15 Past renewals

Horses rated 0-151

Need an unexposed horse
 
Past renewals show
Horses with over 24 career runs
Have a weak 0-67 record in this
The following horses fail this

SEDDON
GRANGE WALK
FIGHTING FIT
MARS HARPER
VISIONARIAN
INDIANA JONES
MUST BE OBEYED
SO SCOTTISH 
ADAMANTLY CHOSEN
 
LETS GO CHAMP won last year 
Year older now and has a break

Every past winner
Ran within the last 87 days

LETS GO CHAMP does not
He has 109 days off the track
And a higher mark this year

Horses with 10st 6lbs or more
Absent more than just 27 days
Have a 0-47 record in this race 
The following horses fail this
 
LETS GO CHAMP
SEDDON 
VISIONARIAN
FIGHTING FIT
INDIANA JONES 

 
MUST BE OBEYED ran 8 days ago
Did not do enough beaten 18 lengths

THE KING OF PRS is a 7 year old
More exposed than ideal for his age

Shortlist

RIAAN has to be respected
No winners came from Cheltenham
That would be one of my concerns
And he did start 66/1 in that race
 
LIGHTKEEPER is a 7 year old
He has just 6 chase runs so far 
Horses with under 7 chase runs
Have a 1-41 record in this race
But that winner was last year
 
BLUE LORD is topweight
He pulled up at Aintree last time
So did the topweight in 2022
And he went and won this race
He has smart Grade 1 form
Including at this meeting
And several excuses for defeats

JAMES DU BERLAIS ran there
Plenty of weight but is a positive

ADAMANTLY CHOSEN included
He fails an exposure statistic above

But want him on side

Big negative in this race last year
As he came from the Grand National

Made him a negative
Several times this season
Failed generic stats at Aintree
He is too big a price in this

BLUE LORD at his best
Will probably win the race
But you can not predict that
I see him as the saver option

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ADAMANTLY CHOSEN 12/1-14/1

£2.00 Win Bet BLUE LORD 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

*******************************************************
*******************************************************