6 Previews
0 Account Bet 



   
Final Deliberations 


 
Final day of Chester

Decided to stay there 
Not cover other tracks
Ascot looks very hard


6 Previews

Suggesting 2 big priced bets

Both have fit profiles

Both have momentum
 
Like the risk reward ratio



Chester 1.30  

£4.50 Each Way PEARL EYE 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet SPIRIT GENIE 20/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




Chester 3.05 

DIVINE COMEDY 14/1-16/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





Preview Selections

 
Chester 1.30 
£4.50 Each Way Pearl Eye 10/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Spirit Genie 20/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Chester 2.05
£6.00 Win Bet Wise Counsellor 7/1-15/2 
£4.00 Win Bet The Pouncing Lion 13/8
 
Chester 2.35
£6.00 Win Bet Space Legend 4/1
£4.00 Win Bet The Foxes 11/8
 
Chester 3.05 
Divine Comedy 14/1-16/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Chester 3.40  
£7.00 Win Bet Qitaal 5/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Take Heart 5/1-11/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Rathgar 6/1

Chester 4.10
Sportingsilvermine 9/4-2/1 
Win Bet







Yesterday's Summary 
  
Had some excellent results
Finished up P P W L W P
Savers won the first 2 races
Mount Kilimanjaro then won
Navigated the opening races
Without taking any big hits
Paddy The Squire then won
Landed a well planned gamble 
Pleasing we latched onto that
Lady Vivian then won a saver
Made it a very good message







PROFILES & PREVIEWS 

  

Chester 1.30

7/2 Divine Libra, 4/1 Two Tempting, 7/1 Gorak
8/1 Persuasion, 8/1 Yanifer, 11/1 Kindest Nation
12/1 Transcending Glory, 14/1 Cheshire Dancer
14/1 Cracking Gold, Spirit Genie, 16/1 Partisan Hero
16/1 Pearl Eye, 33/1 Tarkhan, 40/1 Yermanthere.
 
7.5f handicap
 
Horses rated 0-96

TARKHAN has topweight
Hard to see him winning

Others with weak profiles

TRANSCENDING GLORY drawn 14
When also facing his seasonal debut
Not safe enough on sire stats wither

YERMANTHERE is a badly drawn 7yo

Go back to 1997
Chester
Class 2 handicaps
Run over 8f and shorter
Any time of the season
Horses under 5 years old
Absent more than 15 days
Drawn 10 or higher
Return a 0-67 record
The following horses fail

CRACKING GOLD
TRANSCENDING GLORY

Go back to 1997
Chester
Class 2 handicaps
Run over 2m 1f or shorter
Horses aged 7 or older
Absent over 16 days
Drawn 7 or higher
Have a weak 1-78 record
PERSUASION has this profile

Go back to 1997
Chester Handicaps
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year
No 4 year old filly
With over 7 career runs
Has won absent over 111 days

No 4 year old filly
With over 10 career runs
Has won absent over 62 days

To fillies fail both above angles

KINDEST NATION 
CHESHIRE DANCER  

DIVINE LIBRA is drawn 11

Go back to 1998 
Chester Handicaps 
2 miles of shorter
Class 3 and higher
Any time of year
Horses aged 5
Drawn 9 or higher
Carrying 9st or more
Return a 0-90 record
DIVINE LIBRA fails this

PARTISAN HERO drawn 12
May find that a bit too high
On a track he's never tried

Go back to 2000
Chester Handicaps 
10f of shorter
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 113 days
Carrying 8st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-74 record in them
YANIFER fails this statistic

Shortlist

GORAK is a 6 year old
Just the 1 run this season
Could easily win on profile
But there are fitter profiles
Ran at Haydock 13 days ago
Not been a good trial race
Horses that came from it
Have a 0-22 record in this
Much as some got placed

TWO TEMPTING is a 6yo
I'd have liked a shorter break
But well drawn and in the mix

PEARL EYE ran 2 days ago

SPIRIT GENIE did the same

Met in the same race
On the opening day

Both ran well enough
Despite tough draws

Could have a fitness edge
  
PEARL EYE has a better draw

Looks safer of the pair

Selection

£4.50 Each Way PEARL EYE 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet SPIRIT GENIE 20/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Chester 2.05

2/1 Ammes, 9/4 The Pouncing Lion 4/1 Al Wasl Storm
11/2 Orionis, 11/1 Wise Counsellor, 20/1 Pole Star.

12f maiden

6 runners

5 may fight this one out 
Anyones guess which one
Race for an educated guess

ORIONIS ran 12 days ago
Rather quick return to the track
Danger on his 3rd career start
She may be getting handicapped
Doubt it but not drawn to her
Only filly and the widest draw

AMMES has 2 runs
Steps up from 10f to 12f

His sire No Nay Never
Has bred plenty of 12f winners
But all had 4 + previous runs
None so far had under 4 races
AMMES has only had 2 runs

AL WASL STORM has 2 runs
Cost £7k that feels too cheap

Going to oppose the above 3
Without any real conviction

WISE COUNSELLOR has 3 runs
Rated 78 might not be enough
But he has 3 runs this season
Thats more than all the others
That could be quite significant
If there is no one stand out type

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet WISE COUNSELLOR 7/1-15/2
 
£4.00 Win Bet THE POUNCING LION 13/8







Chester 2.35

11/8 The Foxes, 4/1 Space Legend, 6/1 Bolster
6/1 Certain Lad, 7/1 Liberty Lane, 11/1 Deepone
33/1 Cairo.

Huxley Stakes

Group 2 race (10f)

CERTAIN LAD is a 9yo
Much older than the others
Fails breeding statistics too
 
CAIRO looks outclassed

BOLSTER has 188 days off
He's sired by Invincible Spirit

Invincible Spirit offspring
Running in Group races
Over 10f or more
Absent over 50 days
Have a 0-15 record so far
Few tried but none have won
BOLSTER would be the first

DEEPONE is similar
His sire has no winners
Over this far and this class
Without a run within 6 weeks
Only 12 tried but none won

LIBERTY LANE is up in trip
No horse has won this race
Stepping up from 8f or shorter
Only 17 tried but none won
LIBERTY LANE fails this

Shortlisting 2

THE FOXES 11/8

SPACE LEGEND 4/1

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SPACE LEGEND 4/1

£4.00 Win Bet THE FOXES 11/8







Chester 3.05

7/2 East India Dock, 4/1 Leinster, 11/2 Who's Glen
6/1 Caballo De Mar, 9/1 Hot Fuss, 10/1 Zoffee
12/1 Divine Comedy, 12/1 Emiyn, 16/1 Spirit Mixer
20/1 Dawn Rising, Duke Of Oxford, 25/1 Charging Thunder
33/1 Morning Air, 40/1 Chemistry, 50/1 Bashful Boy
66/1 Vaguely Royal

Chester Cup

16 runners

ZOFFEE won this last year
As an 8yo with 69 days off

This year he is 9 years old
Faces 222 days absence
  
Go back as far as 1975
None aged 9 or more won
Opposing the 9 year olds

ZOFFEE
BASHFUL BOY

DAWN RISING is an 8yo
Plenty of weight 9st 9lbs

Every renewal since 1997
Horses aged 7 or older
Carrying 9st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-37 record so far
The following horses fail this

DAWN RISING 
DIVINE COMEDY

Horses aged 5
Have a poor 3-109 record
Since 2007 they are only 1-66
There are only 2 in this race
Neither of these appeal much
 
DUKE OF OXFORD
VAGUELY APPEAL

HOT FUSS is a 4yo
He is exposed with 18 runners
The past winning 4 year olds
Had 4 16 7 10 10 13 14 races
HOT FUSS has more than all
He is also sired by Calyx
Who has not bred a turf winner
At further than 1m 4f so far
 
MORNING AIR is a 4yo filly
Just not enough positives

None have won this rated 105 + 
CHEMISTRY fails and is out

CHARMING THUNDER a 7yo
Very exposed with a nasty draw

EMIYN is an exposed 8 year old
Think there are safer options 
He has won here over 2m 2f
He's the only one from his sire
Who has won beyond 2 miles
He was 2nd in last years race
Slow starter he will need luck


Possibles

SPITIT MIXER has a chance
Been laid out for the race
Maybe better in smaller fields
But he won here when 15 ran
Just about needs a career best
 
CABALLO DE MAR is a 4yo
With a recent win behind him
He has positives in his profile
But there is a stamina doubt 
His pedigree is not convincing
On the positive side a recent run
2 career bests figures in a row

DIVINE COMEDY is 7 years old
Failed an earlier age/weight stat
But comes here with a fit profile
His momentum will go a long way
Lack of track form is one doubt

WHOS GLEN is a 4 year old
Shortlisted but not like a winner
Horses aged 4
Over 4 career runs
Just 1 run that season
Absent over 19 days
Have a 0-14 record
WHOS GLEN has this profile
Sires had a 2m 1f winner
None over this far before
Neither are dealbreakers
See him as neutral positive

EAST INDIA DOCK is a 4yo
Last seen 3rd in Triumph Hurdle
Horses from hurdles do well
But so far none from Cheltenham
All 23 that came from there lost
Thats not enough to rule him out
He does have 56 days absence

Horses aged 4
More than 7 career runs
Absent over 25 days
Have a 0-23 record since 1997
EAST INDIA DOCK fails this

Horses aged 4
More than 10 career runs
Absent over 18 days
Have a 0-18 record since 1997
EAST INDIA DOCK fails this
He's not without criticism

LEINSTER is a 4yo
He has had just 4 career runs
Not many even for Joseph
Horses aged 4
Under 7 career runs
Have a 1-22 record in this
Not a good record but been done
Cleveland won (2022) with 4 runs
That gives some statistical cover
But he is very short at 7/2-4/1

  
CABALLO DE MAR may not stay

With his fitness and momentum

He could be a place saver bet

But he would only be quite short

So going with this selection

Selection

DIVINE COMEDY 14/1-16/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Chester 3.40

9/2 Take Heart, 5/1 Warda Jamila, 6/1 Grey Cuban
13/2 Rathgar, 7/1 Auld Toon Loon, 8/1 Penzance
9/1 Mustazeed, 10/1 Qitaal, 14/1 Let's Dream
16/1 Andaleep, 20/1 Flight Leader.

10f Handicap

Horses rated 0-105

FLIGHT LEADER has topweight
Unlikely winner with his absence

LET'S DREAM also first time out
Would not appeal as the winner
Bottomweight and rated 6lbs lower
Than every other horse in the race

ANDALEEP is older than is ideal

No past winner of this
Has won from an 8f race
All 34 that tried to win lost
PENZANCE would be first

Go back to 2000
Chester Handicaps 
10f of shorter
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 113 days
Carrying 8st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-74 record in them 
MUSTAZEED fails this angle

GREY CUBAN is a 4 year old
Tough draw wide in stall 11

If you look at his sire
He has had 10f winners
But those in class 4 or higher
Have not won without recent runs
None won absent over 20 days
GREY CUBAN would the first
That issue and his draw a worry

AULD TOON LOON a 6yo
Needs a career best first time out
 
Shortlisting 4

WARDA JAMILLA 5/1

TAKE HEART 9/2

RATHGAR 7/1

QITAAL 8/1

WARDA JAMILLA is a filly
None have won this race yet

There is a stamina question

Horses sired by Calyx
Running in class 2 and higher
Have not yet won beyond a mile
Only 12 tried but none have won
Not really a strong argument
WARDA JAMILLA placed twice
In similar races among the 0-12

He ran at Epsom last time
Thats the best trial race for this
These winners prepped there
2005 2006 2014 2015 2016 
WARDA JAMILLA does too
RATHGAR does as well
  
QITAAL ran only 6 days ago
Would have liked a better run
But he made the running there
Ge gout from a higher draw
And may have done too much
The pace setters folder late on

Want to reduce the shortlist

Down from 4 horses to 3

TAKE HEART


Plenty of weight
No Chester form
No wins off current mark 
Stall 9 could hurt him too
Rustled up this draw stat 

Go back to 1998
Chester 10f handicaps
Class 3 and higher
Any time of the year

Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 12 days
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Return a 0-57 record
TAKE HEART fails this

Or at least he did
Before 2 non runners

I am now including him

And rejecting the filly

 
Selection

££7.00 Win Bet QITAAL 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet TAKE HEART 5/1-112
 
£1.50 Win Bet RATHGAR 6/1

  






Chester 4.10

9/4 Sportingsilvermine, 4/1 Small Fry, 8/1 Obsidian Knight
8/1 Oman, 10/1 Marhaba Million, 10/1  Model Approach
11/1 Tokyo Bay, 12/1 Woodstock City, 20/1 Giselles Defence
20/1 The Dancing Poet, 25/1 Lusaka, 25/1 Miaswell
25/1 Reel Rosie

12f Handicap

Apprentice riders

Just looking at race history

The winner of this
Has never come up in distance
From 10f or shorter before
The following do this

WOODSTOCK CITY
OMAN
GISELLE'S DEFENCE

SMALL FRY is a 4yo
One or two fancied favourites

My main worry with him
Just 1 the run in 154 days

Past renewals show
Horses with over 6 runs
Having 1 run in 12 weeks
Have a 0-22 record so far
The following horses fail this
 
SMALL FRY 
REEL ROSIE
GISELLE'S DEFENCE
MIASWELL
WOODSTOCK CITY
TOKYO BAY 
 
MODEL APPROACH drawn 14
Also faces months off the track

No horse has won
Aged 7 or more before
The following all fail this

LUSAKA
OBSIDIAN KNIGHT
THE DANCING POET

Every past winer
Had at least 6 career runs
MARHABA MILLION has 4

SPORTINGSILVERMINE

The one horse remaining
That I could not oppose

Selection

SPORTINGSILVERMINE 9/4-2/1

Win Bet









FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   


Darts

Luke Humpries 6-5 Luke Littler

The Darts bet was a winner

Paid around 2/1

Seems a good strategy
To save on Luke Littler
May try again next week


That got be a little bit back

From my Europa League wounds

May try and bet more back 
From the weekends football


Sunday

Premier League
 
Man United v West Ham


The Europa League finalists
Only care about 1 tournament 

The Europa final 12 days away

They will not be taking any risks 

Players wont want any injuries

Little doubt they will rest players

Do like the Draw No Bet market


 
Draw No Bet market

WEST HAM 7/4-15/8

Win Bet

 
That seems a good price to me
Can only lose if United win this
And they may not be at their best

 
Saturday

Heavy schedule tomorrow

Due a big priced account win

Building tomorrow's message
Around 2 races with big fields
That could provide that winner

Victoria Cup

Swinton Handicap Hurdle

Done 40% of each race

Hoping one of these races
Mature into an account bet

This particular Saturday

Particularly hard to navigate
Because of too much racing

Past Account bets

We had on this Saturday

2019 - Loser
2010 - No Racing
2011 - WON 11/1
2012 - Loser
2013 - No Bet
2014 - Loser

Expect the unexpected

Last years account bet

Pulled up in a flat race 
With a heart problem

We are due a winner 
That is the plan saturday 
Not sure about next week 
But hoping to carry on 
Without any days off

York next week 

My favourite track

Will be the priority



QUATRAINS
  
Quatrain 1 Lost 
Quatrain 2 Won (£140.44) 
Quatrain 3 Lost 

About to start Quatrain 4

Nothing today

   
Quatrain 4

Bet 1 -   
Bet 2 - 
Bet 3 - 
Bet 4 -  

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