10 Previews 
0 Account Bet

  

Final Deliberations
 
First of 3 competitive days 

Ambitions for the weekend 
One confident bet each day 
Including one on the account
 
10 Previews 

That's more than expected
But found 3 hurdle races
That I just had to include 


Looking for the best bet

My first choice was this bet



 
Dowpatrick 3.23

£6.50 Win Bet  BRINGSTY 3/1

£3.50 Win Bet CENTAQ 7/4

Based on generic course statistics
I wanted this as my best bet today
But the prices have now shortened
Both the horses are too well backed
Much of the value simply evaporated
So instead going with a York bet



 
There were 2 York options


York 4.25 

VANTHEMAN 10/1 -11/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5

This looks the harder race
May not have a good draw
But is too big at the prices




Settled on this best bet

To replace the Downpatrick one





Today's Best Bet


York 1.30

WHIP CRACKER 6/1-13/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5



At the start of the season

Potential Lincoln handicap winner
He had no luck in running that day

Had a luckless summer after that
With a bad draw after a bad draw

Rated the same as he was in March
He should be handicapped to win it

Open race

But making him my best bet









Preview Selections
 
Chepstow 1.22 
Fasol 15/8-2/1 
Win Bet

York 1.30
Whip Cracker 6/1-13/2 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Newmarket 1.50 
£8.50 Win Bet Classic Cuvee 4/1-7/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Mubasimah 5/1-9/2

Chepstow 1.57 
£6.00 Win Bet Kop Land 11/2-6/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Doctors Hill 6/4

York 2.05 
£8.00 Win Bet Ghost Mode 2/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Real American 9/2

Newmarket 2.57
£8.00 Win Bet Precise 7/4 
£2.00 Win Bet Composing 7/2

Dowpatrick 3.23
£6.50 Win Bet Bringsty 3/1
£3.50 Win Bet Centaq 7/4

Newmarket 3.30
£7.00 Win Bet Dangerman 11/2-6/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Respond 11/4

York 3.50
Clear Force 7/2-4/1
Each Way

York 4.25 
Vantheman 10/1 -11/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5







Yesterday's Summary 
 
It was quite an unusual message
Quirky with mainly softer races
Felt it made quite a nice change
The 5 races finished P L W P P
Pleased only the 1 outright loser
Thought it was a well staked day
The only race that I highlighted
Was pitched as a "No lose" race
Was won by one of the 2 savers
Nobody would have won much
Equally it was very hard to lose
Several guesses hardly forensic
But was an interesting afternoon
 
 


 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS

 
 


Chepstow 1.22

9/4 Fasol, Frontier Prince, 8/1 Louis Veron
10/1 Karonacho, 12/1 Matty's Getaway, 12/1 Tread Carefully
12/1 Unjeu Royal, 16/1 Call Me Legend, 20/1 Little Ledgend
25/1 Bombay Pete, 33/1 Harry Bright, 33/1 Jaja Jimmy
50/1 Getaway Sam, 66/1 Rapid Mission
100/1 Kaviar Wood.

Novice Hurdle 2m

34 past renewals of this

Often two divisions of it

Go back to 2005 
Horses aged 4
From a non graded race
Have a 0-70 record in this

FRONTIER PRINCE fails this

Several outsiders also fail this

So do the following horses

LOUIS VERON
TREAD CAREFULLY
UNJEU ROYAL

Basically we are taking a punt
That the 4yo statistic holds out

Selection

FASOL 15/8-2/1

Win Bet








York 1.30

5/1 Northern Express, 11/2 Whip Cracker, 7/1 Bopedro
15/2 Ice Max, Leadman, 8/1 Billyjoh, 11/1 Jannas Journey
12/1 La Trinidad, 12/1 Rhoscolyn, 12/1 Thunder Roar
16/1 Silver Sword, 20/1 Fifty Nifty, 25/1 Eldrickjones
33/1 Nostrum, 40/1 Dosman, 50/1 Isla Kai
66/1 Platoon

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-106
 
ICE MAX is a 4 year old

The most weight
The widest draw

Don't like the sound of that
But he is a Group 2 winner
Not unreasonable to think
He could outclass this field

He fails a combination stat
Where several flaws combine
Making him look up against it 

Go back to 1997
York handicaps
Any distance
Class 3 or higher
Horses aged 4
Over 15 runs
Absent over 13 days
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more
Drawn 10 or higher
Return a 0-104 record
ICE MAX has this profile

Go back to 1997
York 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 22 days
Have a 0-60 record so far
BOPEDRO fails this angle

Go back to 1997
York 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Drawn in stall 6 or higher
Have a nasty 1-115 record
The following both fail this

BOPEDRO  
LA TRINIDAD

ELDRICKJONES is a 6yo
He fails some tricky angles
As a 6yo going up in trip
Without a run in weeks

RHOSCOLYN is a 7yo
Happy to oppose drawn 1
Away from his favoured soft

The following are underraced
PLATOON
DOSMAN
FIFTY NIFTY
ISLA KAI
 
SILVER SWORD looks might be

Exposed 5 year old

Just 1 run in 153 days

Combined with stall 16

Go back to 1997
York handicaps
Any distance
Any time of year
Class 2 races
Horses aged 5
Over 21 runs
Just 1 run in 3 months
Drawn 9 or higher
Return a 0-46 record
SILVER SWORD next to try

JANNAS JOURNEY is a filly
The only female in the race

York 8f handicaps
Since 2007 show fillies
With more than 6 career runs
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-35 record in them
JANNAS JOURNEY fails this

NOSTRUM isn't running well

NORTHERN EXPRESS a 7yo
Must have a reasonable shout
Profile doesn't tempt me much

Go back to 1997
York 8f handicaps
Class 3 or higher
Any time of year
With over 9 runners
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 6 days
From a non graded race
Carrying 9st 1lbs or more
Return a poor 1-133 record
The following both fail this

NORTHERN EXPRESS
RHOSCOLYN 

The only horse to win
Did win this race in 2016

NORTHERN EXPRESS
Only just fails that angle
So not really a negative

THUNDER ROAR is a 6yo
Second in last years race
But racing off 83 last year
This year he races off 97
Never won off this rating
And he is going up in trip
 
Go back to 1997
York 8f handicaps
Class 3 or higher
Any time of year
With over 9 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 7f or shorter
Have a weak 3-135 record
Those with 8st 8lbs or more
Have a weak 1-100 record
THUNDER ROAR fails this

BILLYJOH is a 5 year old
He is also coming up in trip
With 48 days off the track 

Go back to 1997
York 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 5 or more
Over 14 career starts
Coming from 7f or shorter
Absent more than 28 days
Return a 0-47 record
BILLYJOH has this profile

LEADMAN has positives 
Has excuses recently as well 
Been badly drawn a few times
May need some luck in running
What bothers me most of all
This is his 8th run since July
No past winner was as busy

WHIP CRACKER is a 4yo
 
Unexposed 

Hampered in the Lincoln in March

His early season has been luckless

Drawn 1 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup
He failed a 0-108 draw stat there

Drawn 13 of 13 at Sandown

Drawn 33 of 33 at Royal Ascot

Since he has twice ran second
Second at Yarmouth last time
Gave an improving 3yo weight
Time will show that was tough

Selection

WHIP CRACKER 6/1-13/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5








Chepstow 1.57

5/4 Masked Man, 100/30 Tashan, 6/1 Kop Land
7/1 Blue Carpet, 12/1 Doctors Hill, 12/1 High Tea
20/1 Diligent Militia, 25/1 Arcadian Star, Kenzoko
33/1 Big Jim Silver, 33/1 Grand Conqueror
66/1 Albie Littlewood, 100/1 Gigilou, Osterberg
100/1 Uncle Remus
 
Novice Hurdle 2m

Second division 

Using the same angles

34 past renewals of this 
Often two divisions of it
 
Go back to 2005 
Horses aged 4
From a non graded race
Have a 0-70 record in this
The market leaders are 4yo's

MASKED MAN
TASHAN

Have to take a guess

Decided to split stake

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet KOP LAND 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Win Bet DOCTORS HILL 6/4








Newmarket 1.50
    
3/1 Calendar Girl, 3/1 Classic Cuvee, 5/1 Mubasimah
6/1 Blingy's Sister, 9/1 Shady Dame, 10/1 Coming Attraction
12/1 Midnight Tango, Senorita Vega, 25/1 Mood Queen
25/1 Tavana.
   
Oh So Sharp Stakes

7f Group race

2yo fillies

Shock 25/1 winner last year 
Aidan O'Brien's 2nd string 
He was unusually exposed

Most past winners
Had under 4 career starts
Staying with similar types

CALENDAR GIRL is one
Not the most convincing sire
For 2 year olds in this class
None have won over this far

CLASSIC CUVEE has 2 runs
She comes from a safer sire 

23 past renewals
Only 1 of the 23 winners
Came from a handicap

That was 21 years ago
That winner had 3 runs
Had a short 11 day absence

SENORITA VEGA 
The only horse from a handicap
Is not a match to any past winners
May still win but not first choice

If you go back to 2003

Horses with 1 career run
Winning 7f maidens last time
Have a strong 6-13 record
MUBASIMAH has this profile

Horses from Newmarket maidens
Have a 5-6 record in this race
MUBASIMAH has this profile

He won the same maiden race
As the 2015 and 2002 winners
 
MUBASIMAH each way
Would make a lot of sense

CLASSIC CUVEE 
Does have an extra run

Drawn 1 at Doncaster last time
Showed a lot of ability to win

Just prefer him to Mubasimah

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet CLASSIC CUVEE 4/1-7/2

£1.50 Win Bet MUBASIMAH 5/1-9/2









York 2.05 

3/1 Ghost Mode, 4/1 Big Song, Real American
15/2 Malachy's Wish, 10/1 Astrazar, 12/1 Daydreama
14/1 Advance Twentyfive, 16/1 Advertised, Gold Dawn
16/1 Red Spells Danger, 25/1 Born A Star, Deluded
33/1 Sagremor, 66/1 Going Commando.
 
EBF Final

2 year olds over 7f
 
Hardly any race history
So have little to go with

Not many of these sales races
Go to horses from nurseries
 
BIG SONG comes that way
Comes from a class 4 nursery
Others coming from that route

DAYDREAMA 
ADVERTISED

ASTRAZAR is drawn widest
Took him 6 runs to win a maiden
Given limited available options
I would mix and split 2 horses

REAL AMERICAN has momentum

GHOST MODE has the best figures
 
Selection

£8.00 Win Bet GHOST MODE 2/1

£2.00 Win Bet REAL AMERICAN 9/2






Newmarket 2.57

6/4 Precise, 7/2 Legacy Link, 11/2 Dance To The Music
8/1 Queen Of Hawaii, 10/1 Composing, 10/1 Moon Target
16/1 Moments Of Joy, 20/1 Sugar Island, 25/1 Evolutionist
40/1 Amora Queen, 66/1 Venetian Lace.

Fillies Mile

Group 1 (8f)

PRECISE

Aidan O'Brien

Well clear on figures 

She would be my first choice 
Won the Moyglare last time 
The winners in 2015 2016 2020
All came from the same race
These winners all had 4 runs
Two of them trained by Aidan

LEGACY LINK has 2 runs

Past renewals show
Horses from non pattern races
That were over a mile or more
Have a 0-10 record in this race
LEGACY LINK 11th to try this

DANCE TO THE MUSIC
Ran in Canada last time out
Anyones guess what to expect

PRECISE

Has an edge on figures

Improving numbers every race

10/1 to win next years Guineas

Felt she may have enough

COMPOSING is a cheap saver
She maybe the O'Brien number 2
Only 4th in the Moyglare stakes
But she started favourite that day

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet PRECISE 7/4 

£2.00 Win Bet COMPOSING 7/2







Dowpatrick 3.23

7/2 Aswellasabentley, 4/1 Bringsty, 4/1 Centaq
5/1 Someone's Wish, 6/1 Parkgarve, 15/1 Flashthelights
18/1 Garadice, 20/1 Chanceawetmorning
20/1 Clonclough Lady 

Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

Basing the analysis
Around every handicap here

Downpatrick
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year

In all the above races

Horses absent over 37 days
Carrrying 11st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-49 record in them
None have won
These would be the first

CHANCEAWETMORNING
SOMEONE'S WISH

Horses aged 4
Under 10 hurdle runs
Absent over 38 days
Have a 1-49 record

ASWELLASABENTLEY fails this

Downpatrick
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
No 4 year old has won
With 11st 8lbs or more
ASWELLASABENTLEY fails this

CLONCLOUGH LADY is a mare
She looks underraced this year

Every Downpatrick handicap

Horses aged 9 or more
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Absent over 42 days
Return a 0-77 record
FLASHTHELIGHTS fails this

Thought 2 horses stood out

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet BRINGSTY 3/1

£3.50 Win Bet CENTAQ 7/4









Newmarket 3.30

7/2 Respond, 4/1 Munsif, 13/2 Dangerman
7/1 Yabher, 8/1 Daiquiri Bay, 10/1 Ivatt
11/1 Something Splendid, 14/1 Double Meaning
14/1 Elsass, 16/1 Minhad, 20/1 Wine Dark Sea
25/1 Patrol.

12f Handicap (3yo)

11 past renewals

Looked at the history of this
 
Lightly raced horses dominate

9 of the 10 previous winners

Had under 10 career races

Opposing the most exposed  

SOMETHING SPLENDID
PATROL

Horses winning last time out
But in Class 3 or lower grade
Have a 0-34 record in this race
MUNSIF has this profile

 I'd be wary of the higher weights 

Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 1-33 record on this race 
Only winner was different class

MUNSIF fails with 9st 8lbs
DAIQUIRI BAY  fails with 9st 9lbs
 
Horses that ran within 19 days
Have a 0-29 record in this race
May not be the right preparation 
The following horses fail this

DOUBLE MEANING
ELSASS

Almost every winner
Came from a class 2 handicap

Horses from Class 4 or lower
Have a 0-21 record in this race

Horses from Class 3 or lower
Have a 1-67 record in this race

This takes out several horses

WINE DARK SEA
MINHAD
IVATT
YABHER

Leads to two shortlisted

RESPOND
DANGERMAN

Small Stakes

No great edge in this

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet DANGERMAN 11/2-6/1

£3.00 Win Bet RESPOND 11/4







York 3.50

5/1 Clear Force, Sands Of Spain, 11/2 Lil Brother
6/1 Utmost Respect, 7/1 Hanney Girl, Quantum Power
10/1 Go Vince Go, Mighty Magnus, 16/1 Bye Law
16/1 Temple Of Athena, 20/1 Reimagined.
 
5f Nursery

Horses rated 0-88

CLEAR FORCE rated 88
Attempts to carry topweight

Had excuses last time out
The widest draw at Haydock
And failed a generic statistic 

His chance appears stronger
As his 4 higher rated dangers
All have factors against them

SANDS OF SPAIN rated 88
Comes from a Group 2 race
And was beaten a long way

LIL BROTHER is rated 85
Not really the best of draws 

Go back to 1997
York 5f handicaps
Under 13 runners
Any time of year
Horses with over 4 runs
Absent over 7 days
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-41 record in them
LIL BROTHER would fail
But a non runner helps him

BYE LAW is rejected
Coming from the widest draw

UTMOST RESPECT rated 84
Fails a generic nursery angle
 
Go back to 1997
5f Nurseries
Class 2-3 races
Any time of year
Horses from pattern races
Under 6 career starts
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-25 record in them
UTMOST RESPECT fails this

Get the above horses beaten 
CLEAR FORCE only faces a 0-81
 
The lowest rated horses
Have the least experience
 
REIMAGENED a filly
Only has 3 career starts

QUANTUM POWER has 3 runs
He may not have enough class

MIGHTY MAGNUS has claims
But this is his hardest race yet

GO VINCE GO has no 5f form

TEMPLE OF ATHENA is a filly
Her figures are quite modest
Well below her handicap mark

Hopefully

CLEAR FORCE has enough class
To at least place and maybe more

Selection

CLEAR FORCE 7/2-4/1

Each Way









York 4.25

6/1 Kinswoman, 8/1 Al Hussar, 9/1 Vantheman
10/1 Dan Tucker, 10/1 Eternal Sunshine, 10/1 Loom
10/1 Roach Power, 12/1 Azure Angel, 12/1 Copper Knight
14/1 Jenever, 14/1 Squealer, 16/1 Equity Law, 14/1  Parisiac
20/1 Blinky, 20/1 Francisco's Piece, 20/1 Queen's Guard
20/1 Rhythm N Hooves, 33/1 Albegone, Moonstone Boy.
 
5f Handicap

Class 3 race
 
Horses rated 0-93
 
AZURE ANGEL is a 5yo
She is a badly drawn mare
Who has to carry topweight
Who will need a career best
 
Poor race for 5 year olds
With a nasty 1-102 record
Since 2003 all 75 were beaten
Vulnerable to younger horses
The following are 5 year olds

AZURE ANGEL
ETERNAL SUNSHINE
SQUEALER
RHYTHM N HOOVES

Past renewals since 2004 
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-84 record in this

ALBEGONE is a 7yo
Lowest rated horse in this

COPPER KNIGHT an 11yo

Since this race upgraded
Horses aged 4 or older
Coming from Class 4 or lower
Have a 0-32 record since then
The following horses fail this

ALBEGONE
COPPER KNIGHT
PARISIAC
EQUITY LAW

RHYTHM N HOOVES is out
Coming from the widest draw

Go back to 1997
York 5f handicaps
Class 4 and higher
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Drawn 15 or higher
Have a 0-101 record
The following horses fail

MOONSTONE BOY
VANTHEMAN

QUEENS GUARD is a filly
She is just not doing enough
 
ROACH POWER is a 6yo
Won at Ascot 6 days ago
Must be respected on that
Never won off his rating before

Last time winners
Have not done that well
Those aged 5 or older
Winning last time are 0-23
ROACH POWER 24th to try

JENEVER fails this as well

KINSMAN is a 3yo filly
Several have won this race
But she has 41 days break
Just 7 career starts so far
So many of her many rivals
Have much more recent runs
It may be asking a lot of her

Go back to 2007
Every 5f handicap
Run in Class 3 or higher
With more than 10 runners
Fillies aged 3
Under 11 career runs
Absent over a month
Return a 0-24 record
KINSMAN has this profile
No negative but no similar race
Went to a filly with her profile

AL HUSSAR is a 3yo
Very exposed with 19 runs

One or two like him won
But they all ran within 7 days

Horses aged 3 
Over 11 career runs
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 0-65 record in this
The following all fail this

AL HUSSAR
FRANCISCO'S PIECE 
BLINKY
DAN TUCKER

LOOM has a chance
Stall 1 not always a good draw


Difficult to sort this

With so many horses
Running in the last 2 weeks

Every horse fails an angle

ROACH POWER is shortlistable

AL HUSSAR fails an angle
But only just fails that marginally
Won't be surprised if he won

VANTHEMAN is drawn 16

Thats a little higher than ideal

Non runners later could help

Go back to last years race

VANTHEMAN had topweight

He had more weight last year
Than all previous 23 winners

Running off a mark of 92
He had a 54 day absence
Still managed to get a place

This year

Admittedly not as well drawn

But he runs off 10lbs lower
 
If you take the last 5 winners
They won from these stalls

2 8 16 12 15 5 13

The 2022 winner
Won from stall 16
So some encouragement

Selection

VANTHEMAN  10/1-11/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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