7 Previews
1 Account Bet





Account Bet



Cheltenham 5.20

£4.50 Each Way YEAH MAN 16/1-14/1

£1.00 Win Bet MINT BOY 10/1-11/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5





Favourite Bets

Cheltenham 1.20 
Galileo Dame 7/2-4/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Cheltenham 4.00 
£2.00 Each Way Nemean Lion 33/1 
£2.00 Each Way Gowel Road 33/1 
£2.00 Win Bet The Wallpark  6/1-5/1

Cheltenham 5.20 
£4.50 Each Way Yeah Man 16/1-14/1
£1.00 Win Bet Mint Boy 10/1-11/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5





Final Deliberations 


Half time
 
Got ourselves an account win  
The dynamic must now change  
Today is mainly about survival 

But there is also an account bet

Cheltenham 5.20 
£4.50 Each Way Yeah Man 16/1-14/1
£1.00 Win Bet Mint Boy 10/1-11/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5


I had no plans to stake one today

But the prices are very tempting
Our last two bets have both won
So we can easily afford a loser
And my strongest bet tomorrow
Would be a controversial stake
That bet is discussed just below



Tomorrow

Done a lot of work already
Enough to know the likely path
Want to mention one tomorrow


Cheltenham 5.20 (Friday)

Kopeck De Mee 5/2-9/4

Each Way
  
The last race of the festival
The Willie Mullins talking horse   
I've already done this handicap 
I appreciate not many of you
Like betting each way at 5/2
But there are 1-2-3-4-5 places  
This to me looks the best bet
In the last 2 days of the festival

Not saying he will be a full bet
Obviously the price is an issue

He will be one of my own bets
I may go big on him tomorrow

What I do plan to do today
Go for a simple win double 
To reduce the need to bet him
If we manage to get this up

Cheltenham 1.20 (Today) - Galileo Dame 7/2-4/1 

Cheltenham 5.20 (Friday) Kopeck De Mee 5/2-9/4

Win Double









Today's message


Hard to be confident today
Given the tough field sizes

Want to mention 3 races

Not bothered about the rest


Cheltenham 1.20 

GALILEO DAME 7/2-4/1 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4 
 
Initially I was expecting a negative
As a 4 year old against her elders
But my angles say she is a positive
Love what Joseph is attempting here
Think she has a massive chance



Cheltenham 4.00 

£2.00 Each Way NEMEAN LION 25/1-28/1

£2.00 Each Way GOWEL HOUSE 25/1-28/1

£2.00 Win Bet THE WALLPARK  5/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Not so much the selections I like
More the prices and the staking
Both outsiders could go well here
In a race that has negatives in it



Cheltenham 5.20 
 
£4.50 Each Way YEAH MAN 16/1-14/1

£1.00 Win Bet MINT BOY 10/1-11/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


Hoping he can outclass these
Lot of weight which is a worry
But the topweight won last year
And I have excuses for his runs

GALILEO DAME 

Could easily have been a bet

More likely to win of the options

But decided on a bigger price





Preview Selections  
   

Cheltenham 1.20 
Galileo Dame 7/2-4/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Cheltenham 2.00
£2.50 Each Way Lord Of Thunder 12/1 
£2.00 Each Way Moon D'Orange 14/1
£1.00 Win Bet Pic Roc 10/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Cheltenham 2.40
£3.50 Each Way Patter Merchant 16/1-14/1 
£3.00 Place Bet Feet Of A Dancer 2/1 (1-2-3-4)
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6
 
Cheltenham  3.20 
£6.00 Win Bet IIl Est Francais 3/1-11/4 
£4.00 Win Bet Fact To File 11/8-6/4
 
Cheltenham 4.00 
£2.00 Each Way Nemean Lion 33/1 
£2.00 Each Way Gowel Road 33/1 
£2.00 Win Bet The Wallpark  6/1-5/1

Cheltenham 4.40
£3.00 Each Way An Peann Dearg 12/1
£2.00 Each Way Personal Ambition 16/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Cheltenham 5.20 
£4.50 Each Way Yeah Man 16/1-14/1
£1.00 Win Bet Mint Boy 10/1-11/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5







 
Yesterday's Summary 

It was an eventful and volatile day
Which got off to the worst of starts 
Final Demand did nothing wrong
Just looked like he wanted further
Albert Bartlett would have suited
Ballyburn got beat a big setback
I fancied all of those three hotpots
Jonbon the last of that trilogy lost
Those cost us 3 losing previews
With extra embarrassment on top
And that each way treble option
In major trouble after the first two
Beat The Bat placed each way
Ran well and steadied the ship
The cross country was important
Vanillier ran a brilliant 3rd place
He led the field for three fences
Then just took the wrong course
By the time his jockey realised
He lost ground racing at the rear
Looked beaten but heart of a lion
Have to wonder if he'd have won
He's 20/1 for the Grand National
Already been second in the race 
Stumptown the winner yesterday
Now 16/1 for the Grand National
He will likely be a negative there
It was an exciting cross country
We had some momentum back
American Mike killed that dead
Both our Grand Annual horses
Failed to excite of threaten at all
The account bet was the highlight
Bambino Fever really hacked up 
We badly needed that to save us
Having had a modest correction
After months of account profits
The last two bets have both won
Last saturday at 7/1 and now 9/2
Bambino Fever was just a delight
Did she make it a good message 
Not sure it was relief that I felt most
Like I say eventful and volatile day
But we got the one that mattered
  








Generic Statistics

Horses who fail them are below
Hoping to get every one beaten

Current score
 
33 Generics
33 Successful
21 Today
 
Cheltenham 2.40 - J'Ai Froid 
Cheltenham 2.40 - Super Survivor
Cheltenham 2.40 - Harbour Lake
Cheltenham 2.40 - American Sniper
Cheltenham 2.40 - Zain Nights 
Cheltenham 2.40 - Karl Des Tourelles
Cheltenham 2.40 - Maxi Mac Gold
Cheltenham 2.40 - Doddiethegreat
 
Cheltenham 4.40 - Conflated
Cheltenham 4.40 - Seddon
Cheltenham 4.40 - Fugitif
Cheltenham 4.40 - Mars Harper 
Cheltenham 4.40 - Gemirande
Cheltenham 4.40 - Il Ridoto
Cheltenham 4.40 - Shakem Up'arry
Cheltenham 4.40 - Jordans  

Cheltenham 5.20 - Galop De Chasse
Cheltenham 5.20 - Now Where Or When
Cheltenham 5.20 - Manothepeople
Cheltenham 5.20 - Fantastic Lady
Cheltenham 5.20 - Pats Fancy







PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Cheltenham 1.20
 
3/1 Sixandahalf, 4/1 Galileo Dame, 15/2 Aurora Vega
8/1 Karoline Banbou, 8/1 Maughreen, 10/1 Jubilee Alpha
12/1 Diva Luna, 16/1 Air Of Entitlement, 20/1 Just A Rose
20/1 Venusienne, 28/1 Hollygrove Cha Cha, 33/1 Kimi De Mai
40/1 Bluey, Magic McColgan, 50/1 Jane Eire, Karamoja
50/1 Metkayina, 66/1 Mystical Goddess, 80/1 Tour Ovalie
100/1 Brendas Asking, 100/1 Disco Dancer, 100/1Kitty Foyle
100/1 Lagertha, 200/1 Queenie St Clair.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle

9 Past renewals

Surprisingly big field this year
But there is a lot of deadwood

One or two profiles
Would concern me 

SIXANDAHALF a 5yo
 
She's ran once in 165 days
That could be a big problem
She also had a flat career
No past winners had that

AURO VEGA is a 7 year old
The oldest horse in the race
Older than all past winners

MAUGHEEN has 2 career runs
Just 1 run in the last 14 months
Talented but that feels very raw
Especially in such a large field

JUST A ROSE has ran once
Surely thats too much to ask
  
JUBILEE ALPHA is a 6yo
More positives than many
But a Paul Nicholls hurdler
Taking on all the Irish horses
Would see a win unlikely

ACT OF ENTITLEMENT a 6yo
Has raced once in 316 days

KAROLINE BANBOU a 5yo
Nothing too negative about her
She has a bit of experience
 
GALILEO DAME is a 4yo
Big field the youngest horse

Initial thoughts were no thanks
Not in any rush to bet a 4yo
But changed my mind on her

Her age group are fine

She has group form on the flat
She even ran in the Irish Oaks
Favourite for the Cheshire Oaks

Better on flat that Sixandahalf
Yet gets weight from that horse
Done well in her two hurdle runs

Joseph may have targeted this
Found a high quality 4 year old
Getting a generous age allowance

This interested me

Go back to 2007
Mares Novice hurdles
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Any time of year

If you look at 4 year olds

That started under 7/1

In other words the fancied ones

You find an 18-37 record

Brilliant strike rate  of 48.65%

Reassuring about her age 

GALILEO DAME has this profile

Don't see a better alternative

If she copes and runs her race

She should at least be placed


Selection

GALILEO DAME 7/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







 
Cheltenham 2.00

6/1 Firefox, 6/1 Nurburgring, 13/2 Asian Master
8/1 Springwell Bay, 8/1 Answer To Kayf, Caldwell Potter
10/1 Pic Roc, 12/1 Moon D'Orange, 14/1 Lord Of Thunder
20/1 Insurrection, 20/1 San Salvador, What's Up Darling
25/1 Dee Capo, 25/1 O'Moore Park, 25/1 Ryan's Rocket
25/1 The Other Mozzie, 33/1 Densworth, Es Perfecto
33/1 Shanbally Kid, 40/1 Anyway

Novices Handicap Chase 

This race has brought back

Preview renewal was 2000

The angles are just not safe 

SPRINGWELL BAY is an 8yo
Could be a little exposed
To be winning off  topweight
With a 71 days break as well

When this race was last run
Horses aged 8 + were 2-101    
Not too relevant 5 years on
But wary of the older horses
Going to avoid those aged 8 +

ANSWER TO KAYF is a 9yo
Won't say much for the youngsters
If a 9 year old can take this race

ASIAN MASTER is an 8 year old

Opposing the underraced horses

NURBURGRING has 19 runs
Has a nasty 76 day absence
And stepping up 3f in distance
Full respect coming from Joseph
But don't really want that package
Sired by Zoffany here over 2m 4f

When this race was last runs

None of the 16 past winners 
Had a rating of 145 of higher

FIREFOX runs off 150 today

CALDWELL POTTER off 146

SPRINGWELL BAY off 154

ANSWER TO KAYF also fails

One could easily defy that
But none did so in the past
Before the race was stopped

Shortlising 3 horses

LORD OF THUNDER 12/1 

PIC ROC 10/1

MOON D'ORANGE 14/1 


Small stakes

Selelction

£2.50 Each Way LORD OF THUNDER 12/1 

£2.00 Each Way MOON D'ORANGE 14/1

£1.00 Win Bet PIC ROC 10/1
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5









Cheltenham 2.40

6/1 Jeriko Du Reponet, 7/1 D Art D Art, 7/1 Will The Wise
8/1 Win Some Lose Some  Feet Of A Dancer, 12/1 Catch Him Derry
14/1 Karl Des Tourelles, Patter Merchant, 16/1 Lucky Lyreen
16/1 One Big Bang, Shanagh Bob, 18/1 Henri The Second
20/1 Harbour Lake, 20/1 Zain Nights, 25/1 Doddiethegreat
25/1 Guard The Moon, Idem, Super Survivor, 28/1 Bugise Seagull
33/1 Maxi Mac Gold, 40/1 Supreme Gift, 50/1 Thomas Mor
66/1 American Sniper, 66/1 J'Ai Froid.

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle 3m

One of the weeks hardest races

Will start with the generic statistics

These horses fail one or more
 
J'Ai Froid 
Super Survivor
Harbour Lake
American Sniper
Zain Nights 
Karl Des Tourelles
Maxi Mac Gold
Doddiethegreat

D ART D ART has been backed
Despite having 88 days absence

Go back to 2000
Cheltenham Festival
Every Handicap Hurdle 
Horses under 8 years old
More than 7 career starts
Absent over 80 days
Return a 0-147 record
D ART D ART fails this

Every winner since 1997
Ran within the last 76 days

Every winner with over 7 runs
Raced within the last 61 days

The following fail one or both

WIN SOME LOSE SOME
HARBOUR LAKE 
FEET OF A DANCER
D ART D ART
KARL DES TOURELLES 
 
You need experience here
But just not too much of it
You need improvement too
Thats why the past winners
Have all conformed to this

Every winner since 2013 
Had the following hurdle runs
10 14 10 14 9 7 6 7 7 6 6 10

They all had 6-14 hurdle runs

No horse has won this race
Going right back to 1997
With under 6 hurdle races
All 28 that tried were beaten

WILL THE WISE has 5 hurdle runs 
SHANAGH BOB also has 5 runs

None had more than 14 hurdles
All those failing are in the generics

I'd be worried about the low rated

Go back to 2010
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Hurdles 
Horses rated 132 or lower
Coming from non graded races
Have a 0-101 record in them
The following horses fail this

IDEM
GUARD THE MOON
CATCH HIM DERRY
SHANAGH BOB 

SUPREME GIFT an 8yo
No recent run a tough weight
THOMAS MOR is the same
BUGISE SEAGILL is a 7yo
Expect he has too much weight

HENRI THE SECOND an 8yo
Has ran just once in 96 days
There are more likely winners
LUCKY LYREEN not tempting
ONE BIG BAG comes out badly

JERIKO DU REPONET a 6yo
He's ran once in 103 days now
Has a plenty of weight as well
Unsafe profile but no negative
Like the 2013 winner (Hollywell)

PATTER MERCHANT a 6yo
Looks solid enough with 8 runs

Will probably need extra cover 
Shore up the staking a little bit
Going in this e/w + place mix  

Selection
 
£3.50 Each Way PATTER MERCHANT 16/1-14/1

£3.00 Place Bet FEET OF A DANCER 2/1 (1-2-3-4)

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6






Cheltenham  3.20

5/4 Fact To File, 3/1 Il Est Francais, 6/1 Protektorat
12/1 Djelo, 12/1 Jungle Boogie, 14/1 Envoi Allen
16/1 Heart Wood, 33/1 Master Chewy
100/1 Hang In There

Ryanair Chase

9 runners

Very tight on official ratings

166 Fact To File
166 Il Est Francais 
166 Djelo
166 Protektorat
163 Envoi Allen
159 Heart Wood 
156 Jungle Boogie 

ENVOI ALLEN is an 11yo
Lightly raced this season
Happy to turn him down

JUNGLE BOOGIE an 11yo
He has ran once in a year

Feel one of 4 might win

PROTEKTORAT is a 10yo

Account bet last season
When winning this at 17/2
Not so convinced now

He is a year older
He has had 1 less prep race
He has a longer absence
His figures this year not as good
PROTEKTORAT might still win
But he has had 30 career runs

Go back to 2012
Grade 1 chases
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 10 or more
Over 28 career starts
Absent over 21 days
Return a 1-64 record
PROTEKTORAT has this profile
In fields of 7 or more all 46 lost 
The only winner (Cue Card)
Did it in a 6 runner Ascot race
Going for a lighter raced type
PROTEKTORAT is rejected

DJELO is 0-3 in Grade 1's
May just find this too difficult
 
FACT TO FILE is solid
This could be his best trip
Deserves to be the favourite

IL EST FRANCAIS a 7yo
Could be the more talented
But he has no Cheltenham form
His best runs are at Kempton
He will likely be out in front
Could be too smart to catch
Or he could hate the course
Or mess the fractions up too

At the prices

I like the split stake bet

Buy the favourite out of this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet IL EST FRANCAIS 3/1-11/4
 
£4.00 Win Bet FACT TO FILE 11/8-6/4








Cheltenham 4.00

6/4 Teahupoo, 5/1 The Wallpark, 6/1 Home By The Lee
6/1 Lucky Place,16/1 Bob Olinger 16/1 Mystical Power
20/1 Rocky's Diamond, 25/1 Crambo 25/1 Gowel Road
25/1 Nemean Lion, 40/1 Buddy One 50/1 Franciscan Rock
50/1 Ga Law.

Stayers Hurdle
 
TEAHUPOO is top rated 
He is the defending champion 
Followed the same preparation 
But he does look underraced

Past renewals show
Horses aged 8 or more
Just 1 run in 4 months
Return a 0-30 record
TEAHUPOO fails this

May not stop him winning
Some of his rivals are wrong

HOME BY THE LEE is a 10yo

Go Back to 1997
Cheltenham Festival
Grade 1 Hurdles
Horses aged 10 or older
Have a worrying 1-91 record
HOME BY THE LEE fails this

Go Back to 1997
Cheltenham Festival
Grade 1 Hurdles
Horses aged 9 or older
Absent over 54 days
Have a 0-60 record
The following all fail this
 
HOME BY THE LEE
BOB OLINGER 

HOME BY THE LEE a 10yo
Looks unsafe with 75 days off
He also fails this breeding stat

Hurdlers
Sired by Fame and Glory
Running over 2m 7f or more
Listed and Graded class
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-54 record in them
HOME BY THE LEE fails this

MYTHICAL POWER is rejected
Coming up from 2m to 3 miles

ROCKYS DIAMOND too young

LUCKY PLACE is a 6yo
He has had 8 career runs 
Bit on the inexperienced side

But 2 horses his age did  it
The winners in 2000 and 2014
It has been done so no negative
But it happens quite infrequently

THE WALLPARK is a 7yo
He's raced once in 138 days

Past renewals show
Horses with 1 run in 4 months
Have won this race 3 times

None aged 8 or more (0-30)
Thats the angle Teahupoo fails

But 7 year olds doing this
Have done it 3 times before

Teahupoo did it last year
When he was a 7 year old
THE WALLPARK next to try
Happy enough with his profile

NEMEAN LION is interesting
Felt he was a lively outsider
Running career best figures
And potential improvement 
If he stays this 3 mile distance

GOWEL HOUSE also 33/1
Could easily grab a place

Selection

£2.00 Each Way NEMEAN LION 25/1-28/1

£2.00 Each Way GOWEL HOUSE 25/1-28/1

£2.00 Win Bet THE WALLPARK  5/1






Cheltenham 4.40

9/2 Jagwar, 13/2 Thecompanysergeant, 7/1 Masaccio
8/1 Jordans, 10/1 Ginny's Destiny, 12/1 An Peann Dearg
12/1 Gemirande, 14/1 Path d'Oroux, 16/1 Fugitif
16/1 Shakem Up'arry, 20/1 Il Ridoto, Personal Ambition
20/1 Seddon, 22/1 Conflated, 25/1 La Malmason
25/1 Riaan, 33/1 Individualiste, 40/1 Tahmuras
50/1 Demnat, 50/1  Mars Harper.

Plate Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Horses rated 0-157 

CONFLATED heads the weights
Happy to oppose on the generics
The following horses fail as well

Generic Statistics

Horses to avoid

Conflated
Seddon
Fugitif
Mars Harper 
Gemirande
Il Ridoto
Shakem Up'arry 
Jordans 

JORDANS is a 6 year old
Don't like that 75 day break
With plenty of weight as well

JAGWAR another 6 year old
Scrapes through the generics
 
Go back to 1999
Cheltenham Festival
Handicap Chases
Any Distance
Horses aged 6
Under 12 lifetime starts
Carrying 10st 9lbs or more
Have a 1-61 record in them  
JAGWAR shares this profile
Not great but one horse did it

One angle I can fail him on

Past renewals of this race
 
Horses with under 13 runs
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Carrying 10st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-41 record in this 
JAGWAY will be 42nd to try

GINNY'S DESTINY is a 9yo
Plenty of weight 11st 6lbs

Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 1-54 rcord since 1998
Those absent over 12 days
Have a 0-47 record in the race
GINNY'S DESTINY fails this
He's ran just once in 94 days

Horses under 10
Just 1 run in 12 weeks
Carrying 10st 9lbs or more
Return a 0-67 record
The following  fail this

GINNY'S DESTINY
PATH D'OROUX
 
INDIVIDUALISTE a 7yo
Looks too far out of the weights
DEMNAT has the same problem

TAHMARUS pulled up last time
That race was only 19 days ago 
RIAAN lacks enough positives

Past renewals show
Horses from 3m or more
Have a poor 1-81 record
Those aged 6 or more 0-75
The following all fail this

LA MALMASON
CONFLATED
TAHMARUS
  
MASACCIO

Tempted to shortlist him

Only 4 chase runs
Not many for an 8yo
With 11st 1lbs weight

Go back to 2006
Cheltenham Festivel
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 5 chase runs
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Return a 0-68 record
MASACCIO shares this profile

THECOMPANYSERGEANT

Tempted to shortlist him
But just 1 run in 130 days
He is exposed with 22 runs
Only horse from a hurdle race
New stable may improve him
But not quite sold on his profile

Prefer two horses

Both unexposed

Not too much weight

PERSONAL AMBITION

AN PEANN DEARG
 
Selection

£3.00 Each Way AN PEANN DEARG 12/1

£2.00 Each Way PERSONAL AMBITION 16/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Cheltenham 5.20

4/1 Walking On Air, 11/2 Johnnywho, 15/2 Midnight Our Fred
8/1 Sa Majeste, 11/1 Mint Boy, 12/1 Yeah Man, 14/1 Git Maker
14/1 Nine Graces, 16/1 Daily Present,  16/1 Music Of Tara
16/1 Westerninthepark, 20/1 Cleatus Poolaw,  20/1 Sine Nomine
25/1 Fantastic Lady, Manothepeople, 25/1 Weveallbeencaught
25/1 Wiseguy, 33/1 Gelino Bello, Pats Fancy, 40/1 Dom Of Mary
50/1 Galop De Chasse, 50/1 Grozni, 50/1  Now Where Or When
50/1  Where It All Began.

Kim Muir

Handicap Chase 3m 2f

Amateur Jockeys
 
FANTASTIC LADY topweight
Happy to avoid a weak profile
One of sadly only a few horses
Who fail the Generic Statistics
The full list of those is below

Galop De Chasse
Now Where Or When
Manothepeople
Fantastic Lady  
Pats Fancy
  
SA MAJESTE is a 7 year old
Willie Mullins just 4 chase starts
Having his 1st handicap chase

If you look at 27 past renewals

Horses under 9 years old
More than 5 career starts
Winning last time out
Have a 0-53 record in this
Does it suggest they don't cope
The following horses fail this

SA MAJESTE 
NINE GRACES

NINE GRACES is a 9yo mare
No mare has won a handicap
At the festival off over 50 days
NINE GRACES has 60 days off
 
GIT MAKERis underraced
Not from a sire that is proven

Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Running over 3m 2f or more
Class 2 and higher grade
Have a 0-62 record in them
The following share this sire

DOM OF MARY
GROZNI
GIT MAKER

SINE NOMINE is underraced
WISE GUY the same problem

MUSIC OF TARA is unsafe
As a mare going up half a mile

Several of the rank outsiders
Look resistible and out of form

WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT an 8yo
Did not do enough 12 days ago

JOHNNYWHO is an 8yo

J.P. Mcmanus owned
Just 10 career starts so far
11st 10lbs is a lot of weight

Go back to 2006

Cheltenham Festival
Every handicap chase
Horses aged 8
Under 15 career runs
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Return a 0-84 record in them
JOHNNYWHO fails this angle

Go back to 2006
Cheltenham Festivel
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 5 chase runs
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Return a 0-68 record
JOHNNYWHO fails this too 
Do not want to risk him here

WALKING OR AIR is an 8yo

Clearly fancied and respected
But comes here after a fall
He has a rating of only 129

The last 16 winners
Were all rated 131 of higher
WALKING OR AIR is not

The last 24 renewals show
Horses from under 3 miles
With under 3 runs this year
Have a 0-32 record in this
DAILY PRESENT fails this
 
CLEATUS POOLAW a 7yo
Beaten 21 lengths last time
That was just 21 days ago
Plenty of weight not for me
WESTERNINTHEPARK a 7yo
Did not offer enough to bet

MINT BOY has a chance

MIDNIGHT OUR FRED an 8yo
Could win if he gets the trip
Just 1 run in 159 days though
May make that less likely
 
YEAH MAN  

Asking a lot to win with 12 stone
But he may well have the class
Been opposing him this season

Comes from a good trial race
Haydocks grand national trial
He won the same race in 2024
Missed Cheltenham that season
To go for the Irish Grand National
We opposed him in that race
Weak profile and did not stay
 
This season

3rd in the Troytowm first time out
Negative there with a long break

Favourite for the Theyestes
Made him a negative there too

Last time was going very well
When he unseated at the 14th
Soft fall just pitched on landing
Obviously that is not ideal
But the 2023 winner did that
And its factored into his price
I think he can outclass these

Selection

£4.50 Each Way YEAH MAN 16/1-14/1

£1.00 Win Bet MINT BOY 10/1-11/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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