5 Previews 
0 Account Bet 


Final Deliberations
 
 
The Craven meeting begins today 

Newmarket may be disappointed 
About some of those smaller field
Thought the first day lacked spark
 
5 Previews

4 Newmarket

1 Southwell

More opportunities tomorrow
We have the double header
Cheltenham and Newmarket

This repeats on Thursday too
So expecting 2 full messages

Can take or leave things today

Just going to side step today
Just let the message play out
With two big days coming up


    




Preview Selections


 
Newmarket 1.50 
£7.00 Win Bet Aramram 6/1-112
£1.50 Win Bet Dark Thirty 5/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Physique 5/1

Newmarket 2.25
£5.00 Win Bet Almeric 9/2-5/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Green Storm 4/5

Newmarket 3.00
£6.00 Win Bet Persica 7/2
£4.00 Win Bet Ottoman Fleet 6/4 

Newmarket 3.35
Arabian Dusk 7/2-100/30 
Each Way

Southwell 3.50
£8.00 Win Bet Our Pink Lady 4/1-9/2
£2.00 Win Bet Aazza 4/1-9/2







Yesterday's Summary


Message finished L W L W L
The statistics performed well
They hardly put a foot wrong 
And found 2 decent winners
Started off with a losing bet
Haberdash missed the break
Cost him any chance he had 
King's Code won 7/1 into 11/2
Got all of the negatives beat
Thankfully chose the right one
Partisan Hero was a non runner
Left us a part bet on Visability
He lost but was very unlucky
Not sure he would have won
But it would have been close
Quercus Robur was a winner
Got the race right 1st and 2nd
Reigning Profit ran very nicely
But his jockey  got it all wrong
Took the widest route all race
Finished best lost in the photo
Would've won in another stride
We should have had 3 winners
But overall happy with the day







PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
  
  

Newmarket 1.50

4/1 Elmonjed, 9/2 Dark Thirty, 5/1 Physique
6/1 Aramram, 13/2 Woodhay Wonder, 9/1 Trefor
12/1 More Thunder, 12/1 Vantheman, 20/1 First Folio
20/1 Probe, 20/1 Twilight Romance, 25/1 Indian Run
33/1 Ararat
 
6f Handicap

Class 2 race

Horses rated 0-99 
 
9 Renewals

All 9 previous winners of this

Was drawn in stall 8 or lower
 
The 3 highest draws in this
Are all seasonal debutants

TREFOR drawn 13
VANTHEMAN drawn 12
INDIAN RUN drawn 11

WOODHAY WONDER is a filly
First time out carrying topweight

March to April
Class 2 handicaps
Any distance
Fillies aged 4
Over 5 career runs
Absent over 30 days
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Return a 0-31 record
WOODHAY WONDER fails this
 
FIRST FOLIO might need the run

PROBE won this back in 2023
Now the oldest horse in the race
Not safe enough going up in class
 
MORE THUNDER has positives
But all his runs over 9f and more
This is a radical drop to 6 furlongs
Makes me see it as a prep race
  
ELMONJED

4 year old first time out
Big stable could easily win
But he is unsteady in market
This could also be a prep run

The Wokingham at Ascot
Could be his main target

Profile just about fine today
But plenty of weight to carry
Winning his last run in 2024
Has not helped his profile
It is a judgment call with him
Mine is this is an Ascot prep
ELMONJED is not selected

Shortlisting 3

DARK THIRTY

ARAMRAM

PHYSIQUE

Can poke holes at all three
 
March and April
6f handicaps on turf
Class 2 races
Horses aged 5
Coming from 6f or more
Just 1 run this season
Have a 0-26 record in them 
 
DARK THIRTY fails this
PHYSIQUE also fails too

Don't think it's significant
The stat could break anytime
But none as yet have won
  
Both the above are 5 year olds
They have a weak 1-30 record 
Would just prefer a 4 year old
  
ARAMRAM may be a better fit
Having a second run this year
The obvious doubt about him
Will this race come too quickly
Can not know difficult to judge
Because of that no each way
Going with this split stake bet

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ARAMRAM 6/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet DARK THIRTY 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet PHYSIQUE 5/1






Newmarket 2.25

9/4 Masai Moon, 7/2 Sallaal, 5/1 Almeric
5/1 Green Storm, Nightwalker, 10/1 King Of Cities
33/1 Last Galileo, 40/1 Law Of Design.

Feilden Stakes 

Listed race 9f

Never been a good trends race

GREEN STORM has had 6 runs
Thats more than previous winners
He could be too exposed for this

NIGHTWALKE is drifting a little
His trainer says he may need it
No reason to ignore that advice

MASAI MOON is also drifting
Happy enough with just 1 run
But not from the widest draw

SALLAAL is well thought of

He's raced just once last year
That race was over 7 furlongs
The last horse to win this race
With that profile was in 2001
That is a long 24 years ago

ALMERIC has a safer profile

I think a split stake looks best

GREEN STORM is exposed
But on his Racing Post ratings
He has a comfortable edge
So going with him to place

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet ALMERIC 9/2-5/1

£5.00 Place Bet GREEN STORM 4/5







Newmarket 3.00

5/4 Ottoman Fleet, 15/8 Ambiente Friendly
11/2 Persica, 13/2 First Conquest 
50/1 Lavender Hill Mob.

Earl Of Sefton Stakes

Group race over 9f

OTTOMAN FLEET is a 6yo 

He won this in 2023 and 2024

Winning again will be no surprise

AMBIENTE FRIENDLY a 4yo
He's 2 years younger than him
And officially raced 5lbs higher

James Owen his trainer
Has made some positive comments
In an interview in the Racing Post

" Seems really well in himself"

" Doing everything right he's ready to go"
 
The problem with all this
He was interviewed elsewhere
Just a couple of days ago
And was a lot more reticent


His comments then were...

" The trip is on the sharp side"
" He will improve massively"
" Here to blow the cobwebs away"



He was far more negative there
I am assuming he won't be 100%

Given the choice of the pair

OTTOMAN FLEET looks safer
But going with him as the safer

PERSICA has the same rating
And is a couple of years younger
Said to have been targeted for this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet PERSICA  7/2

£4.00 Win Bet OTTOMAN FLEET 6/4




 


 
Newmarket 3.35

15/8 Verse Of Love, 11/4 Arabian Dusk, 7/2 Nardra
13/2 Celestial Orbit, 12/1 Zanzoun, 16/1 Remaat
20/1 Cartwheel, 40/1 Biniorella Bay, 50/1 Qarlyga
100/1 Saguaro Blossom.
 
Nell Gwyn Stakes

Classic trial 
 
Should involve 3-4 runners

ZANZOUN may just need a run

CELESTIAL ORBIT is an option 
She has been absent 264 days
Horses absent over 221 days
Have a 0-32 record in this race
CELESTIAL ORBIT fails this

In terms of numbers

ARABIAN DUSK is top rated
But has had more runs to do it

You could also argue
She is 100/1 to win the 1000 Guineas
He main rivals are shorter than she is
And may have more potential than her

But on the other side of the coin
This race could be her Guineas
And her more sexier opponents
May not be as prepared as she is

Ideally

I'd like a win and place bet

But the options are short

VERSE OF LOVE could win
Just 1 run and missed her prep

NADRA has the same profile
Just 1 run and missed a prep
But there is market confidence

Feel the sensible bet is this

Selection

ARABIAN DUSK 7/2-100/30

Each Way






Southwell 3.50

11/4 Jacksbar, 11/2 Aazza, 6/1 Cluain Aodha
6/1 Faerie Cutlass, 7/1 Our Pink Lady, Pipers Cross
12/1 Ebselysees, Herewegohoney, 16/1 Perculator.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 3m

8 runners

Racing Post make the case
 
JACKSBAR can win up in trip

But she has some issues here

She has had 7 lifetime starts
Just had the 1 run in 127 days
And comes up 6f in distance too

Go back to 2007
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m and further
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses with under 9 runs
Just 1 run in the last 12 weeks
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a -0-29 record in them
JACKSBAR is next to try this

Go back to 2007
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m and further
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 6 or more
Under 9 career starts
Coming from 2m 3f or shorter
Return a 0-47 record in them
JACKSBAR also fails this stat

FAERIE CUTLASS is a 7yo

Pretty exposed with 15 hurdles
As she faces 123 days absence
There are safer profiles in this
PERCULATOR similar problems

PIPERS CROSS won last time
She is very exposed 21 hurdle runs
Asking a lot to follow that win up
Without a race in the last 40 days

Split staking this

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet OUR PINK LADY 4/1-9/2

£2.00 Win Bet AAZAA 4/1-9/2







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   




Not covering much today

Irish Grand National statistics

For next Monday bank holiday



78 Horses still in the race

Willie Mullins trains 22

But many of those will not run 
Those that he is likely to race
Do not have obvious chances
This could easily be a national
That Mullins will not be winning

The race favourite

HAITI COULEURS

Also looks quite unsuitable

At first glance fails many angles

So could be worth a crack at this

The weights will go up quite a bit

I would expect by at least 11lbs 
 
So putting this on the back burner

Until we know all the declarations




Ante Post Statistics

Monday April 21st

Fairyhouse 5.00
 
Irish Grand National

5/1 Haiti Couleurs 8/1 Now Is The Hour 10/1 Johnnywho
10/1 High Class Hero 10/1 Captain Cody 12/1 Better Days Ahead
12/1 Iroko 12/1 Perceval Legallois 12/1 Daily Present
12/1 Kinturk Kalanisi 12/1 Nick Rockett 14/1 Malina Girl
14/1 Canal End 16/1 I Am Maximus  16/1 Hasthing 
16/1 Resplendent Grey 20/1 Intense Raffles 20/1 Aworkinprogress
20/1 Dancing City 20/1 Impaire Et Passe 20/1 Bioluminescence
20/1 Quai De Bourbon 20/1 Will Do 20/1 Favori De Champdou
20/1 Sa Majeste 20/1 Bushmans Pass 20/1 Wonderwall
20/1 Loughglynn 25/1 Minella Cocooner 25/1 Gentlemansgame
25/1 Mint Boy 25/1 Grangeclare West 25/1 Panda Boy
25/1 The Short Go 25/1 Meetingofthewaters 25/1 Olympic Man
25/1 Chosen Witness 25/1 Any Second Now 25/1 Sequestered
25/1 Dunboyne 33/1 Stumptown 33/1 Three Card Brag
33/1 Val Dancer 33/1 Henrys Friend, Velvet Elvis 33/1 Yeah Man 
33/1 Search For Glory 33/1 Duffle Coat 33/1 Kilcruit     
                   
Official Ratings of winners

140 149 137 137 144 139 153 
137 136 142 128 135 132 130 136

Horses rated 145 or more
Have a weak 2-89 record

Both winners 7 year olds
With only 3-4 chase races
 
Horses aged 8 or more
Rated 145 or more
Have a 0-63 record
 
Past winners
Had the following Chase runs
7 4 13 17 4 13 3 25 6 4 9 9 9
10 12 12 8 11 6 12 13 12 11

21 of the last 23 winners
Had under 14 chase runs
 
26 of the last 29 past renewals
Went to horses aged 7-8-9-10
 
Horses aged 6
Won just 3 renewals since 1985
They had 11st 4lbs or less weight
They had 9 7 5 chase runs
They had 12 11 13 career runs

Horses aged 7
Have won 10 renewals since 1994
They won with these Chase runs
4 13 3 6 4 12 8 11 4 12
Horses aged 7 are best
With under 14 Chase runs
The more they have above that
The less appealing they would be
 
Horses aged 8
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Last won this race back in 1946

Horses aged 11 or more
Have not won this since 1997

Past winners
Had these absences
36 26 53 173 22 24 64
28 27 35 18 50 37 39 33
 
Past winners
Had the following runs since August
3 4 1 0 3 5 3 5 6 4 7 3 5 2 4 3 8 5
21 of the last 24 winners
Had at least 3 runs that season

Horses with 11st 5lbs or more
Have a very poor record in this
None have won this since 1995
 
Horses from Chases under 2m 5f
Have a 0-55 record since 2009
 
Horses from 3m 1f or more
Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time out
Have a 1-66 record in this race

Horses from 3m 2f or more
Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time out
Have a 0-45 record in this race
 
Stay with horses
With under 13 hurdle runs
All 43 with 13 or more lost
  
Horses from a Novice handicap
Have a 0-25 record in this race

Horses pulling up last time
Have a 0-37 record in the race
 
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