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Final Deliberations

Decided on a Sunday bet
Thankfully I already know it
My hand was slightly forced

Could not stake one today
Suggesting these two bets
As the best of the message

Newbury 3.45 

RUN BOY RUN 8/1-15/2 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3   

  

Newbury 4.20 

£5.00 Win Bet WITCH HUNTER 9/1-10/1

£5.00 Win Bet MY CLOUD 11/10



 
Newbury only message

Unusual that has happened

Feels threadbare and lopsided

But that is how it turned out



Thirsk is my weakest track
Did not want to tackle that 

Newmarket has small fields
Did not find anything good

So never added to Newbury


Yesterday in the Message


Mentioned a possible bet
A northern trained horse 
Who I though would win

The horse runs tomorrow
That will likely be the bet
So going to wait for Sunday


Had little choice really

Newbury is under attack
With annoying non runners

One race they have hurt
Was today's possible bet


Newbury 3.45 

RUN BOY RUN 8/1-15/2 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3   


3 Non runners in this
Reduces the field to 9

Killed my draw angles
1st and 2nd favourites
Both failed those angles
Until the 3 withdrawals

Much of my reasoning
Has been compromised

Also lost the 4th place

Happy to suggest him
But not now as a main bet




Newbury 4.20 

£5.00 Win Bet WITCH HUNTER 9/1-10/1

£5.00 Win Bet MY CLOUD 11/10

Though this was a decent bet
Forced into having a split stake 
Favourite and Third favourites
With some negatives elsewhere
No safety nets but quite like it



Turned out an unusual saturday

Kettled into a one track message







Preview Selections
 
Newbury 12.50
£7.50 Win Bet Sunway 4/1-7/2 
£1.25 Win Bet Tabletalk  7/1 
£1.25 Win Bet El Cordobes 7/1

Newbury 1.25 
£5.00 Win Bet Symbol Of Honour 5/1-11/2 
£4.00 Win Bet Ides Of March 5/4-11/8 
£1.00 Berkshire Whisper 9/1

Newbury 2.00 
£8.50 Win Bet Saddadd 4/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Genealogy 5/1
 
Newbury 2.35 
Notable Speech 4/1 
Each Way
 
Newbury 3.45 
Run Boy Run 8/1-15/2 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3   

Newbury 4.20 
£5.00 Win Bet Witch Hunter 9/1-10/1
£5.00 Win Bet My Cloud 11/10












PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


Newbury 12.50

9/4 King's Gambit, 7/2 Al Aasy, 4/1 Sunway
9/2 El Cordobes, 13/2 Tabletalk, 14/1 Eydon
100/1 Raja Raja.

Aston Park Stakes

Group 3 race 12f

Some interesting things to watch

KING'S GAMBIT the favourite

He has 90 days off
Looks a Royal Ascot prep race
But he may still be good enough

His sire's record interests me

Saxon Warrior has bred 12f winners 
But those above class 4 are 0-21 
Those absent over 38 days 0-15

KING'S GAMBIT fails both of those
Inconclusive but also very unproven

AL AASY has different challenges
As an 8 year old going up from 10f

Go back to 1997
Group races over 1m 4f +
With more than 6 runners
Horses aged 7 or older
Coming from 1m 2f or shorter
Running within4 months 
Return a 0-28 record in them
Again inconclusive but unproven
 
Opposing the above horses

EYDON is not obvious
But a small field helps him

EL CORDOBES is an option
No horse won this race before
From a recent handicap like him
But few tried he is a positive
 
SUNWAY is a positive
I would prefer fewer runs for a 4yo
But with the market leaders unsafe
He must be on the contenders list
 
TABLETALK a 4yo is lighter raced
He does have a more orthodox profile 

Last time out

SUNWAY was 6/4 in a Group race
TABLETALK 14/1 in the same race
EL CORDOBES 4/1 in a handicap

SUNWAY on that angle trumps them
So think each way bet is the right call
Given could  be wrong about others

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet SUNWAY 4/1-7/2

£1.25 Win Bet TABLETALK 7/1

£1.25 Win Bet EL CORDOBES 7/1






Newbury 1.25

6/4 Ides Of March, 11/2 Sayidah Dariyan
13/2 Symbol Of Honour, 10/1 Berkshire Whisper
10/1 Defence Minister, 10/1 Hold A Dream
14/1 Caburn, 14/1Noble Champio 20/1 Andesite
40/1 Righthere Rightnow.

Carnarvon Stakes

3yo Listed race (6f)

21 Past renewals

No much I can say here

IDES OF MARCH

Has the edge on numbers
Always looked a saver bet

Not a good race for fillies
All 29 that tried have lost
Going to avoid these fillies

SAYIDAH DARIYAN
HOLD A DREAM

Winners have had absences
But I'd prefer no to have one 
Going to avoid those that do

DEFENCE MINISTER
CABURN
 
 
SYMBOL OF HONOUR is fine
  
BERKSHIRE WHISPER is fine

4 past winners of this

Ran in a recent handicap

Horses doing that
With 4 or 5 career starts
Have a 4-8 record in this
Winning in these years
2005 2011 2021 2023
  
Has just won a 77k handicap
And offers us decent value

But at the weights
BERKSHIRE WHISPER rated 92
Meets better horses off levels
So making him second saver


SYMBOL OF HONOUR

Becomes a bet around 9/4-2/1
With 2 saver bets onside as well


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet SYMBOL OF HONOUR 5/1-11/2

£4.00 Win Bet IDES OF MARCH 5/4-11/8

£1.00 BERKSHIRE WHISPER  12/1











Newbury 2.00

7/2 Genealogy, 9/2 Saddadd, 9/2 Wave Rider
11/2 Nebras, 15/2 Asmen Warrior, 8/1 Ernst Blofeld
11/1 Circus Of Rome, 12/1 Lightening Mann
16/1 Quai De Bethune, 33/1 Law Of Design

London Gold Cup

3yo Handicap 10f
 
18 Past renewals

Aidan sends one over

GENEALOGY has 3 runs
First time out this season
The only horse with a break

Seasonal debutants have won
None with more than 9st 3lbs
GENEALOGY has 9st 8lbs
Thought that was a big ask

WAVE RIDER looks unsafe
Stepping up from a 7f race
No past winners did that
Did not want to trust that


Horses who ran as a 3 year old
Coming from a mile or shorter
Under 4 runs that year are 0-49 
QUAI DE BETHUNE fails this

NEBRAS topweight 9st 9lbs

Horses with 9st 6lbs or more
Have a modest 1-25 record
That winner was lighter raced
He comes from a Listed race
No horse did that as a 3yo
ERNST BLOFIELD does this
He is the stable 2nd string

CIRCUS OF ROME could win
But he was unplaced last time
In only a class 4 handicap

ASMEN WARRIOR shortlisted
Well supported can see why
But he is only rated 82
And from a modest stable

Horses rated 83 or lower
Have a 0-30 record since 2014

Horses rated 81 or lower
Have a 0-39 record since 2004
 
Will he have enough  class here ?
Others that share low ratings

CIRCUS OF ROME 
WAVE RIDER 
LIGHTENING MANN

LIGHTENING MANN fails
Lowest rated widest drawn


This looks a poor renewal

Would prefer the topweights

Because of the lack of quality

GENEALOGY is upgraded
He has less to beat that usual
For a highweight in this race
 
SADDADD as a win selection
GENEALOGY a place saver

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet SADDADD 4/1

£1.50 Win Bet GENEALOGY 5/1






Newbury 2.35

7/4 Rosallion, 3/1 Dancing Gemini, 4/1 Notable Speech
9/2 Tamfana, 14/1 Lead Artist, 16/1 Fallen Angel
20/1 Persica, 100/1 Checkandchallenge

Lockinge Stakes
 
Official ratings

122 Rosallion
122 Notable Speech
118 Dancing Gemini 
117 Lead Artist
116 Tamfana
114 Fallen Angel 


ROSALLIOIN 

Joint top rated

Laid out and clearly fancied

He has a 333 day absence
Statistically that is not an issue
But it may not help his stamina

Horses sired by Blue Point
Running over 7f or more
In Class 2 and higher grade
Absent more than 52 days
Return a 0-15 record so far

Does not sound a big deal
Only 15 trying not winning

But this is a Group 1 
It's over a mile not 7f
Not ran in almost a year
After a respiratory illness

Because of those sire stats
Which will fail at some point

Not selecting him at 2/1

TAMFANA is a filly
Don't have an issue with that
Won't be surprised if she wins
But she is taking on males
With a lot more achievements
From much stronger stables
 
DANCING GEMINI

Should have every chance 
With 2 recent runs on his side
  
NOTABLE SPEECH 

Classic winner

Double Group 1 winner

Joint top rated horse

Makes the most sense

Selection

NOTABLE SPEECH 4/1

Each Way








Newbury 3.45

7/2 Elmonjed, 4/1 Completely Random
5/1 Aramram 8/1 Run Boy Run, 9/1 Cover Up
9/1 Indian Run, 10/1 Dorney Lake, 10/1 Orazio
12/1 Rosario, 16/1 Dream Composer, 20/1 King's Lyn
33/1 Purest Time.
 
6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-100

COVER UP is topweight

Not tempted up in trip

Similar races show
Horses from 5f races
Do not score too well

Horses aged 5 or more
Coming from 5f races
Running this season
Have a nasty 1-94 record
COVER UP fails this
 
Horses under 8 years old
Coming from 5f races
With 9st or more weight
Have a 0-61 record 
The following fail this
 
COVER UP
 
ROSARIO
  
 
KING'S LYNN is an 8 year old
His 56 break weakens his profile

INDIAN RUN is 4yo
ARAMRAM is a 4yo
Both fancied in good form
They fail this strange angle

Go back to 2001
Newbury 6f handicaps
With 10 or more runners
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with 9st 2lbs or more
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-29
Drawn in stall 2 are 0-32

INDIAN RUN is drawn 1
ARAMRAM is drawn 2

So no horse has won here
From the bottom 2 stalls
Whan carrying a big weight

The Above Stat is now void
After 3 morning non runners

No idea if that will work out
But opposing both of them

ELMONJED could go well
Not sure if today is his day

The Wokingham at Ascot
Could be his main target
Thats not written in stone

Probably gets in that race
Rated 96 but it's not certain
His profile in this handicap
Just seems a bit stretched


Go back to 2001

May

6f handicaps
Class 2 races

Horses aged 4
Under 10 career runs
Just 1 run this season
Return a 3-43 record

Those absent over 18 days are 0-20
ELMONJED fails this with 32 days off

Those with 9st 4lbs or more are 0-10 
ELMONJED fails this with 9st 8lbs

DORNET LAKE has a chance 
But he is going up in class here

COMPLETELY RANDOM a 4yo
Comes here on a hat trick bid
He has to be on the shortlist
But 9st 10lbs is a lot of weight

This is interesting

Not sure how relevant it is

Go back 25 years

Newbury 6f handicaps
Class 4 and higher 
Any time of the year
With under 15 runners
Horses aged 3 or older
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Drawn in stall 7 or higher
Return a 0-47 record
COMPLETELY RANDOM fails this
ELMONJED does as well

ORAZIO is a non runner

PUREST TIME is a non runner
 
DREAM COMPOSER also out

That's put massive pressure

On the draw statistics above

Improved the chance of some
That I would otherwise reject

RUN BOY RUN is a 4yo
A little exposed for his aged 
Given he has 20 career runs 
But he has good recent runs
Ran a creditable 4th last time 
That was a better class race
Was badly drawn in that race
Can not see why he can't win

Selection
 
RUN BOY RUN 8/1-15/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3  





Newbury 4.20

6/4 My Cloud, 5/1 Classic, 8/1 Crown Board
8/1 Ebt's Guard, 11/1 Witch Hunter, 12/1 Ancient Rome
12/1  English Oak, 14/1 Kitaro Kich, 20/1 Boyfriend
20/1 Epictetus, Kingdom Come, 25/1 Dutch Decoy.

8f Handicap

Class 2 race

MY CLOUD short and sexy
Defied inexperience last time
He just looks a saver option

EBTS GUARD is a 4 year old
He ran over 7f just 7 day ago
May be some concern here

Go back to 1999
March to July
8f handicaps
Class 2 races
Horses aged 4
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within 13 days
Return a 0-56 record
EBTS GUARD fails this
 
Go back to 1999
8f handicaps
Class 2 races
With over 9 runners
Any time of the year
Horses aged 4
Over 10 career starts
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within 13 days
Return a 0-90 record
EBTS GUARD fails this

CROWN BOARD is a 5yo
Not a safe profile down in trip
ENGLISH OAK is resistible
Didn't do enough last time

CLASSIC is respected

Each way account bet last time
When placed in the Spring cup

Just 1 run this season
With 35 days off the track

Not got a great draw in 11
 
Go back to 1999
Newbury 8f handicaps
Class 4 and higher grade
With under 18 runners
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 17 days
Drawn in stall 9 or higher
Return a 0-64 record
CLASSIC fails drawn 11
ANCIENT ROME fails drawn 12
EPICTETUS also fails as well

Richard Hannon runs 3

CLASSIC is rejected

BOYFRIEND is rejected
Has has had 358 days off
Trainer says "Might need it"
Look at his sires record
No horse sired by Twilight Son
Has won over a mile or more
In Class 3 or higher grade
Without a run within 36 days

WITCH HUNTER from Hannons
Has enough to make the shortlist
Could be best of the "Hannons"

I'm staggering this

CLASSIC does have issues
But has a career low mark
Nearly made second saver

WITCH HUNTER is preferred

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet WITCH HUNTER 9/1-10/1

£5.00 Win Bet MY CLOUD 11/10



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