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Today's Best Bet


Windsor 1.20

FASOL 11/4-5/2

Win Bet




 



Final Deliberations 
 
Not the calm Sunday I expected 

With 3 races worth considering
  
Saturdays plans sadly unraveled
Suicidal gallop set by our jockey
Just killed our chances of winning
Thought we deserved much better

Obligatory lie down in a dark room
I was expecting a low key Sunday

Then watch Brighton v Man United
In the Draw no market around 6/4
I've backed Brighton to take this

Not before some interesting races


Thurles 12.55

£6.00 Win Bet MILLFORCE 7/2-4/1

£4.00 Win Bet INN AT THE PARK 5/4

Really like this split stake bet
Betting the 3rd favourite to win
Saver on a Willie Mullins hotpot
The second favourite is opposed
He fails a 26 year Generic stat

 
 


Windsor 3.40  

£9.00 Win Bet ZERTAKT 11/4

£1.00 Win Bet MINELLA BLUEWAY 8/1-9/1
 
Long distance Chase
My angles say one of these win
My Breeding statistics chip in 
They don't trust Minella Blueway
Suggest he might not stay 3m 4f
I have been forced into a win bet  
Zertakt has shortened into 11/4
Don't really see this is as my bet
Coming purely from my statistics
But I will be cheering it on anyway






Today's Best Bet


Windsor 1.20

FASOL 11/4-5/2

Win Bet




He could be an account bet
 
I was tempted with a saver

Onewaywest around 100/30

But the prices are a bit tight

Not even sure I need a saver

I think the strategy in this race  

Is an each way bet 11/4-3/1

Few would appreciate that

But I think that is the play


For those reluctant to do this

This might suit you better 


Windsor 1.20 - FASOL 11/4-5/2

Fakenham 2.15 - AVIATION 5/4

Each Way Double


Because of available prices

Just going for a straight win bet

Making it my best bet today








Preview Selections  

Thurles 12.55 
£6.00 Win Bet Millforce 7/2-4/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Inn At The Park  5/4
  
Windsor 1.20
Fasol 11/4-5/2
Win Bet

Windsor 1.55
£5.00 Win Bet Harper's Brook 9/2
£5.00 Place Bet Matata 4/5

Fakenham 2.15 
Aviation 5/4
Win Bet 

Windsor 2.30 
£2.50 Each Way Hermino AA 16/1-14/1 
£2.50 Each Way Deep Cave 12/1-14/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4
 
Windsor 3.40 
£9.00 Win Bet Zertakt 4/1-7/2 
£1.00 Win Bet Minella Blueway 8/1-9/1






Yesterday's Summary

Think we deserved better overall
Message finished P L L L P P P
Pleased with how it finished off
Those later races were difficult
Unlucky in several of the races
Broke level in the Peter Marsh
That was a well staked strategy
Richmond Lake ran really well
Looked like he was about to win
Thankfully saver on the winner
Despite him drifting out badly 
Kilbarry Hill should have won 
Looks sure to mugged very late
Kalamunda the Lingfield saver
Also looked home caught late
Scarface ran well but only 4th
The account bet was ridiculous 
Jonny Mansie went miles clear
Racing Post say he went too fast
Killed any chance he had to win
Clearly lost our chance tactically
We never had an outright winner
Honestly think we deserved one
Managed to rescue 4 of 7 bets
But we were forced into a beating
It was harsher than we deserved


 
 
   


Profiles & Previews  




Thurles 12.55

11/1 Inn At The Park, 9/4 Sporting Glory
5/1 Millforce, Mister Pink, 66/1 Simpletwistoffaith.

Novice Hurdle 2m 6f

INN AT THE PARK

Willie Mullins 7yo

Won on his hurdling debut

Entitled to maximum respect

You can argue

SPORTING GLORY a 9yo
Has had 2 hurdle races
And has achieved more
Certainly has on numbers

But statistically

He has a horrible profile
As a 9yo from a 2m race
Stepping up 6f in distance

The usual disclaimer

Small fields can beat good angles

But this looks quite damming

Go back to 1999

Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f and more
Any time of year
Horses aged 9 or older
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Return a 0-106 record
SPORTING GLORY fails this

MISTER PINK could go well
But Mulllin's second string
Would not my first choice

The favourite may win

But he quite short at 11/10

MILLFORCE is interesting

Nothing to find on figures

Had 4 healthy hurdle runs

Well raced this season 

Maybe worth a split stake

Selection
 
£5.00 Win Bet MILLFORCE 4/1-9/2

£5.00 Win Bet INN AT THE PARK 11/10






Windsor 1.20

3/1 Zanndabad, 4/1 Fasol, 11/2 Hartington
11/2 Onewaywest, 15/2 Guard Duty, 8/1 Reallyntruthfully
12/1 Devon Dude, 16/1 Illegal d'Ainay, Officer Of State
25/1 Super Sabre Sam

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Horses rated 0-120

REALLYANDTRUTHFULLY a 6yo

Topweight 12st

Just 2 hurdle races

That might be asking too much

This should go to a 6 year old
Opposing those who are not

DEVON DUE is rejected
Youngest horse as a 5yo
The least experienced too

Older horses underperform

January
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a modest 2-85 record
Those with 11st or more
Have a 0-49 record in them

GUARD DUTY fails this
Plenty of weight 11st 12lbs

ILLEGAL D'AINAY fails too
  
ZANNDABAD is a 6yo
 
Good horse lots of ability 

Has a couple of issues
Having had 23 career runs
He is on the exposed side
More runs than the others
 
Sire stats are interesting
Because he has 50 days off

Hurdllers sired by Iffraaj 
Running over 2m 4f or more
Absent more than 39 days
Have a 0-47 record so far
ZANNDABAD 48th to try it

No hurdlers from his sire
Has won over this far before
Without a more recent run
SUPER SABRE SAM is out
Comes here well beat last time
OFFICE OF STATE was too
Hard to make him 1st choice

HARTINGTON is a 6yo
No surprise if he takes this
But he is going up half a mile
Also comes from a listed race
That has not been the norm
Similar Novice handicaps 
Rarely go to horses doing this

ONEWAYWEST is shortlisted

Just a little on the raw side
Having raced once in 13 months

FASOL is shortlisted

He is well raced this year

Needs this longer trip on pedigree

Out of a daughter to Monsun

Favourite at Cheltenham
Back at the November meeting
He badly needed the run that day
The race was not run to suit him

Second at Sandown next time
Close finish again over 2 miles

Second at Ascot last time out
Again over an inadequate trip
No shame there is a huge field

If you watch the Ascot race
Given an over confident ride
Held up too far and too late

 
Rated 100 on the flat
Has Group race form

Expect him to win off 111
 
Selection

FASOL 11/4-5/2

Win Bet







Windsor 1.55

7/2 Matata, 4/1 Etalon, 5/1 Harper's Brook
13/2 Martator, 7/1 Crebilly, 7/1 Sans Bruit
10/1 Editeur Du Gite, 14/1 Arctic Bresil
14/1  Unexpected Party.

Handicap Chase 2m

Far from easy
But some interesting issues

Need far more history

MATATA is topweight 

Rated 155

Martator a horse rated 151
Was beaten 30 lengths yesterday
Assuming that he wont be running
Even if he does have to avoid him

MATATA then faces a 0-145

The horses rated 145

Unexpected Party
Editeur Du Gite

They are the oldest horses
The two outsiders in the race
MATATA may outclass the rest

That said has to defy 12 stone
Official handicap mark of 155
Gives plenty of weight away too

Against the oldest horses
Those with bad recent runs
Those with long absences

Think the market is right
Can only shortlist 3 horses

MATATA 7/2

ETALON 9/2

HARPERS BROOK 9/2

No strong preference 

Or method I'd trust to split them

Have to guess the right staking

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet HARPERS BROOK 9/2

£5.00 Place Bet MATATA 4/5





 
Fakenham 2.15

15/8 Aviation, 5/2 Mohawk Chief, 3/1 Escapologist
9/2 Dwight K Schrute, 20/1 Educator, 40/1 Walk The Plank
40/1 Wingmann, 50/1 Suzy Wood.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f
 
AVIATION - 2 hurdles

MOHAWK CHIEF - 2 hurdles

EDUCATOR -  Hurdle runs

ESCAPOLOGIST - Bumper form

DWIGHT K SCHRUTE - Unraced

Fakenham has few similar races
Not enough to get a proper idea
How unraced and bumper horses 
Get on against the experienced

I would prefer hurdling form

MOHAWK CHIEF has that
Has Fakenham form as well
He is an Aidan O'Brien cast off
But other circumstantial clues
Just leave me underwhelmed

He started at 40/1 and 200/1
In his two hurdle races so far
It is not a very reassuring sign

Stamina may be an issue here
His won won between 6f and 10f
Yet to sire a flat winner over 2m +
Yet to sire a hurdle winner (0-9)
He steps up- from 2m to 2m 4f
He was also not very expensive 

AVIATION just looked safer
National Hunt background
Has already ran well over 2m 5f
Cost 4 times as much as his rival
Felt he looked the likely winner

Selection

AVIATION 5/4

Win Bet







Windsor 2.30

100/30 Jipcot, 6/1 Gwennie May Boy, 6/1 Minella Missile
8/1 Git Maker, 8/1 Push The Button, 10/1 Deep Cave
10/1 Titan Discovery, 11/1 Dans Le Vent, In Excelsis Deo
12/1 Samuel Spade, 14/1 Hermino AA, 25/1 Spike Jones.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Horses rated 0-140

Class 2 race

Would have liked more history 
Makes this much harder to sort

Had a play around

Decided to reject the following

DANS LE VENT is too old

SAMUEL SPADE fails sire stats

PUSH THE BUTTON does too

He comes from a sire
Whose runners over 2m 7f +
In Class 6 grade or higher are 0-24

TITAN DESCOVERY weak on pedigree
Compacted with 3 months absence too

IN EXCELSIS DEO out from a chase

SPIKE JONES rated too low
 
MINELLA MISSILE a 7 year old
Faces 429 days off the track
Having had just 2 career starts
 
That leaves 5 horses
 
GIT MAKER is a 9 year old
He was last seen 274 days ago 
Finishing 3rd in the Scottish National
Statistically I can not rule him out
The lack of a recent run the issue
May also be a prep race for next time

JIPCOT made the shortlist

GWENNIE MAY BOY is a 7yo
Ran well at Cheltenham last time
He may have needed that race
But may also need a career best
 
DEEP CAVE has a mixed profile
But has positives and a big price

HERMINO AA has topweight
But chances on his best form
 
Not confident in the final choice

Going to speculate this way

With 4 places available
 
Selection
 
£2.50 Each Way HERMINO AA 16/1-14/1

£2.50 Each Way DEEP CAVE 12/1-14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Windsor 3.40

3/1 Fortunate Man, 9/2 Art Decco, 5/1 Zertakt
8/1 From The Ashes, 9/1 Minella Blueway
9/1 Regatta De Blanc 10/1 Not Sure, 12/1 Just Over Land
14/1 Animal, 20/1 Planned Paradise, 25/1 Yippee Ki Yay.

Handicap Chase 3m 4f
 
Horses rated 0-127

Opposing the favourite

Go back to 1997
January
Handicap Chases 
Run over 3m 4f and more
Any class of race
Show horses aged 6
Have a 0-21 record
The following fail this

FORTUNATE MAN
JUST OVER LAND

ANIMAL is rejected
The only seasonal debutant

REGATTA DE BLANC is a mare
Lightly raced must be respected
But her sire stats are unsafe


Horses sired by Shirocco
Run on over 3m 2f and more
On soft or heavy ground
Have a 0-38 record so far
Two horses fail this sire stat

REGATTA DE BLANC
YIPEE KI YAY

NOT SURE looks underraced

FROM THE ASHES is unsafe
Pulled up only 19 days ago
Stepping up over a mile in trip

PLANNED PARADISE similar
Pulled up recent up in distance

ART DECCO is topweight

Raced only once in 10 months
Tough weight and 44 days off
Asking a lot to defy 12st 2lbs

ZERTAKT has 3 chase runs

MINELLA BLUEWAY has 3 chase runs

Go back to 2009
January 
Handicap Chases 
Run over 3m 4f and more
Class 4 and higher 
Horses aged 7
Under 4 chase runs
Over 5 career starts
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from a chase
Beaten under 13 lengths in it
Carrying 10st 7lbs or more
Have a 7-13 record in them
Two horses share this profile

ZERTAKT

MINELLA BLUEWAY

Both have stamina to prove
Running some breeding stats

MINELLA BLUEWAY is unsafe
Sire's had 1 winner past 3m 2f
That came in a far lower grade

ZERTAKT looks stronger

If he relishes the longer trip

He should improve past these

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet ZERTAKT 4/1-7/2

£1.00 Win Bet MINELLA BLUEWAY 8/1-9/1

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