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Final Deliberations

Long and detailed message
Tried to do the card justice

Need to stake better today
Big fields and poor staking
Caused damage yesterday
Got swatted away like a fly

The next Account Bet is due
Don't feel I can risk it today
Tomorrow will suit us better
Will be able to cover more

The Nunthorpe is fascinating
But too hard for a strong bet


York 3.35

£4.00 Each Way NIGHT RAIDER 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet JM JUNGLE 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win ASFOORA 8/1-9/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


Feels a quality message
But on a very complex card

Hoped for a bet in the finale
But that looks a vicious race
Fifth Column was that option
But he has shorted too much
So I decided to flip flop him


York 5.20 

£4.00 Each Way TEROOMM 8/1-9/1

£2.00 Win Bet FIFTH COLUMN 5/1 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


From the above 2 options 
I prefer the Nunthorpe bet 
There are safer bets below 
The above are speculative

The meeting is beating us
So want a better performance
Before I would stake any bet

So a few interest bets

In what I hope is an interesting read











Preview Selections
 
York 1.50 
£6.00 Win Bet Insanity 10/1
£4.00 Place Bet Naqeeb 6/4

York 2.25
Sweet William 9/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2 Places

York 3.00   
Egoli 4/1 
Each Way

York 3.35 
£4.00 Each Way Night Raider 9/1-10/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Jm Jungle 8/1-9/1 
£1.00 Win Asfoora 8/1-9/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 

York 4.10  
£5.00 Win Bet Cape Flora 9/2-5/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Wonder Star 10/11-1/1
 
York 4.45  
£7.50 Win Bet New Monarch 11/4-5/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Naval Light 11/4
 
York 5.20 
£4.00 Each Way Teroomm 8/1-9/1 
£2.00 Win Bet  Fifth Column 5/1  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5








Yesterday's Review
 
Started off with a placed return
After that we looked like mugs
The card beat us convincingly
My staking badly let us down
Leadman was so badly ridden
Raced in last and finished wide
Had plenty in hand never nearer
Maybe his draw causes issues
The bet I wanted in that race
Would have saved our stakes
Maybe that was poor staking
Karmology and savers also lost
Could have gone each way 5/1
That now looks like bad staking
Raakeb was a disappointment
The winner was on the shortlist
Talked myself out of him late
We probably should have saved 
Felt the staking was too shoddy
And contributed to a horrible day








PROFILES & PREVIEWS



York 1.50

4/1 Mount Atlas, 5/1 French Duke, 6/1 Insanity
6/1 This Songisforyou, 13/2 Naqeeb, 15/2 Zanndabad
14/1 Asgard's Captain, Champagne Prince, Chillingham
22/1 Marhaba The Champ, 25/1 Austrian Theory

12f Handicap

20 past renewals

No 3 year olds

Horses aged 4
Have the best record

But strangely this year
Only 3 of them take part

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-29 record in this

Horses aged 5 or more 
Those with over 12 runs
Have a poor 1-124 record
The following all fail this

THIS SONGISFORYOU
AUSTRAIN THEORY
ASGARD'S CAPTAIN
CHILLINGHAM
MARHABA THE CHAMP
ZANNDABAD
NAQUEEB
INSANITY
 
Go back to the 2006 race
Horses with over 11 runs
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
They have a 0-69 record
The following all fail this

THIS SONGISFORYOU
NAQUEEB

One of the main issues

Will the 4 year olds

FRENCH DUKE

MOUNT ATLAS

CHAMPAGNE PRINCE

Continue the dominance
That 4 year olds have had
When there are just 3 of them
And they are so short in number

FRENCH DUKE drops from 1m 6f

CHAMPAGNE PRINCE does too

There were 2 past winners
Dropping down in trip like them
Both had 3 + races that season

FRENCH DUKE has only had 2
CHAMPAGNE PRINCE does too
That would be a slight concern

MOUNT ATLAS the other 4yo
Has to defy a tough rating of 107 

York Handicaps
Any class 
Any distance
Any time of year
With over 8 runners

Horses aged 4
Racing off a handicap mark
Of 106 or higher are 1-44
Have a modest 2-69 record 
Those with 9st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-33 record
MOUNT ATLAS is next to try
  
What this tells me

4 year olds might be best 
But there are only 3 of them 
All three have question marks

The next best option

Are unexposed 5 year olds
There are plenty to consider

Going to turn down the 4yo's
That could easily be a mistake
But would rather split stake it

Small Stakes


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet INSANITY 10/1

£4.00 Place Bet NAQUEEB 6/4

 







York 2.25

4/7 Trawlerman, 6/1 Sweet William, 7/1 Al Qareem
15/2 Shackleton, 14/1 Al Nayyir, 25/1 Dubai Future.

Lonsdale Cup

Group 2 over 2 miles

TRAWLERMAN

Ascot Gold Cup winner

SWEET WILLIAM was 4th
Boith trained by John Gosden
Hard to see past these horses

AL AAREEM might pop up
But his is not strong on sire stats
SHACKLETON is only a 3 year old
 
TRAWLERMAN a 7yo
Does deserve to be odds on
But he has 64 days off the track
His stablemate has plenty to offer
 
SWEET WILLIAM

Comes from the best trial race

The Goodwood Cup 
15 of the last 28 winners
Came from that Group 1

Can he beat his stablemate ?

On official ratings at the weights
He only has 3lbs to find on figures

Hard to know how to play this

Could bet both on Betfair

TRAWLERMAN returns most stakes

SWEET WILLIAM becomes about 9/4

We could also go each way
Even with just the 1-2 places


Selection

SWEET WILLIAM 9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2 Places







York 3.00

13/8 Do Or Do Not, 4/1 Reciprocated, 9/2 Lifeplan
6/1 Egoli, 15/2 Rock On Thunder, 11/1 Comical Point
25/1 Irish Fighter, 50/1 Yorkshire Puds.

Gimcrack Stakes

2yo Group 2 (6f) 

Smaller field this year

DO OR DO NOT FIGHT

Sets the standard on figures
Despite having never won

He drops down from a 7f race
Similar profile to last years winner
Both prepped in the Vintage Stakes
Stall 1 is probably not too helpful

If you go back to 1998
All previous renewals show
Horses with under 6 runs
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-23
DO OR DO NOT FIGHT fails
   
LIFE PLAN has just 1 run

Many horses with just 1 run
Won this several years ago
But if you go back to 2003
Horses with just 1 race
Running within 41 days
Have a 0-10 record in them
His type last won 20+ years ago
But only 10 of them have tried
Some placed others not fancied
So that is not a strong statistic

EGOLI has 4 runs
Comes from a good trial race
But he was beaten 8 lengths

Every past winner of this race
Beaten on their previous run
Ran within 6 lengths of the winner
The following horses did not
   
EGOLI 
RECIPROCATED
COMICAL POINT

ROCK ON THUNDER could win
He does look quite stoutly bred

EGOLI does have excuses
When beaten 8 lengths last time

The Richmond Stakes last time
Threw up a strong draw bias
He was among the half of the field
Who were at a big disadvantage
That race is also a strong trial race
  
Given the frame of the race
 
He could be the percentage bet

Selection

EGOLI 4/1

Each Way








York 3.35
 
5/1 Lady Iman, 11/2 Arizona Blaze, 13/2 Asfoora
13/2 Sayidah Dariyan, 10/1 Mgheera, She's Quality
11/1 Jm Jungle, 12/1 Night Raider, 14/1 Rumstar
14/1 Spicy Marg, Washington Heights, 20/1 Frost At Dawn
33/1 Celandine, 40/1 Kerdos, 66/1 Ain't Nobody
66/1 Manaccan, 80/1 Spartan Arrow

Nunthorpe Stakes
 
LADY IMAN is a 2 year old

Gets a significant weight allowance

The 2 year old record is acceptable
14 juveniles tried and one did win it
That was a 2yo colt back in 2007

Lyric Fantasy a filly did it in 1992
But both those 2 year old winners
Were scoring much bigger figures
Has her chance but not first choice

SPICY MARG is another 2 year old
Not drawn to her chances either

ARIZONA BLAZE is a 3 year old
The 3yo record is not that good
At least not in the most recent past

Since 2012 
3 year olds are only 1-50
ARIZONA BLAZE is next to try

The 3 year old winners since 1997
All had 12 of fewer career starts
ARIZONA BLAZE has had 15 runs

Horses aged 3
Coming from 5f races
Have won this 4 times 
They had 7 11 12 12 runs

ARIZONA BLAZE has 3 more
Don't see him as a negative
His 5f figures are very smart
But he is not a match to a winner
And he does have a penalty too
  
Go back to 1997
Horses aged 5 or older
Drawn in stall 14 or higher
Have a 0-33 record in this  
The following horses fail 

RUMSTAR
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS

SAYIDAH DARIYAN is a 3yo
He is dropping down from 6f

Only 3 horses aged 3
Have won this down in trip
And they were all monsters

Stravinsky (1999)
Mozart (2001)
Oasis Dream (2003)

They were all male
All had fewer runs than her

Horses from 6f or more
Have not done well recently
Go back to 2006 renewal
Horses from 6f or more
Have a weak 1-67 record

Those running within 61 days 
Have a 0-56 record since then
SAYIDAH DARIYAN fails this
He's only raced once over 5f
And was unplaced at 100/30

SHE'S QUALITY is a 4yo filly
She's a bit exposed with 20 runs
 
Horses aged 4
With 17 or more career runs
Have a 0-24 record in this race
SHE'S QUALITY fails this angle
FROST AT DAWN does as well
If you include her foreign form

Go back to 2007
5f Group races
Any time of year
Any course
Fillies aged 4
Over 14 career runs
Absent over 14 days
Have a 0-40 record
FROST AT DAWN fails this
SHE'S QUALITY does as well

MGHEERA is a 5 year old mare
She's raced just once in 90 days
Not sure I could trust that profile

ASFOORA is a 7yo mare 
So was the 2012 winner
 
She was favourite for this last year
She ran a creditable 4th place
Comes from the best trial race
 
ASFOORA ran flat last time
She was 7th at Goodwood
May seem a bit disappointing
But the ground was too soft
She had just 1 run in 97 days
That found her out on the ground
Given she is an older 7yo mare
I'd have liked one more prep run
 
JM JUNGLE is a 5yo
Did well to win a Group 2 last time
Could this be asking too much
To win a Group 1 
Coming from stall 13 ?
Given the negatives in this
I'd rather have him on my side
He's just won the best trial race

NIGHT RAIDER rated 105
Faces a lot of higher rated rivals
But that rating looks misleading
Racing Post Rating last time 113
Rating of 120 done in 2024 as well
He is clearly better than his rating
Comes from the best trial race
Where the draw killed any chance
He was a shorter price that day
That JM Jungle was to win as well

Some say he is a better sand horse
But feel that is a huge assumption

Selection

£4.00 Each Way NIGHT RAIDER 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet JM JUNGLE 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win ASFOORA 8/1-9/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






York 4.10

3/1 Zgharta, 9/2 Wonder Star, 5/1 Cape Flora
8/1 Akecheta, Blessed Star, 10/1 Roarin' Success
12/1 Brielle, Power Of Destiny, 14/1 Callisto Dream
16/1 Ciara Pearl, 25/1 Bint Al Daar, 40/1 Fiver Friday
50/1 Jujubella.

Fillies Handicap 10f

Not much history to this
Not going to spend long here

ZGHARTA the favourite
Looks unsafe drawn 13/13

Go back to 1998
York 10f races
With under 14 runners
Horses under 4
Drawn 13 are 0-11

Horses under 4
More than 3 career runs
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 0-23 record
ZGHARTA fails this

3 year olds are the best age

August and September
Fillies handicaps over 10f
Class 2 and 3 races
With over 5 runners
Horses aged 5 or older
Beaten last time out
Absent over 8 days
Carrying 8st 10lbs or more
Return a 0-32 record in them
The following all fail this

ROARIN' SUCCESS
AKECHETA
FIVER FRIDAY
CIARA PEARL
BINT AL DAAR

BRIELLE with 3 career runs
Looks on the inexperienced side

BLESSED STAR has a chance
But she is going up in distance
And not had many runs in 2025
POWER OF DESTINY is a 4yo
Not doing enough at the moment

WONDER STAR is a 3yo
Shortlisted
Saver material
But just 1 run in 97 days

CAPE FLORA got the verdict

Very talented
Said to also be quirky
She's learning on the job
But can we trust her each way
Would rather go win + place


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet CAPE FLORA 9/2-5/1

£5.00 Place Bet WONDER STAR 10/11-1/1







York 4.45

100/30 Naval Light, 9/2 Frescobaldi, 5/1 Inishbeg
5/1 New Monarch, 10/1 Beny Nahar, 11/1 Bond
12/1 Ephron, 14/1 Spyce, 16/1 Isle Of Fernandez
16/1  Night Wolf, Red Spells Danger, 20/1 King Of Thunder
25/1 Sea The Power, 33/1 Ice Cube
150/1 Explosive Finnish.

Convivial Maiden Stakes

2 Year olds (7f)

The last 7 winners

All had experience

Enough of todays runners
Have raced at least twice
So I'd expect that to continue

INISHBEG unraced drawn 11
Aside from the 2022 renewal
Every winner was drawn 1 to 10 
He may have too much to do
Same applies to all the debutants
 
Others with bad draws

ISLE OF FERNANDEZ
NIGHT WOLF
KING OF THUNDER

BOND is drawn 12
Respected but not selected
SPYCE unlikely to be ready

FRESCOBALDI has 2 runs
Never rule Aidan O'Brien out
But he has 77 days absence
Longer than all past winners
Who have raced beforehand

NAVAL LIGHT sets the standard
Cost 360k and looks very smart
She has to prove her stamina
Would not be too worried about it
But she is winless after 3 races
 
Horses with 3 or more runs
Have a 0-10 record in this race
NAVAL LIGHT would be the first
He could still easily bolt up here
Has an edge on his figures too

BENY NAHAR has ran twice
He has to be fully respected 
  
NEW MONARCH has 2 runs

And looks the better match

The 2000 2002 2016 2019 winners
Came from the same Ascot maiden

NAVAL LIGHT scares me

One or two others are also players
 
NEW MONARCH got the vote

I wanted to go each way
As there were 1-2-3-4 places
But sadly he has shortened 

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet NEW MONARCH 11/4-5/2

£2.50 Win Bet NAVAL LIGHT 11/4







York 5.20
 
9/2 Montpellier, 11/2 Fearnot, 13/2 Yah Mo Be There
7/1 Big Leader, 7/1 Fifth Column, 9/1 Teroomm
10/1 Sea Force, 12/1 Dividend,12/1 Knights Gold
14/1 Impartiality, Sir Paul Ramsey, 16/1 Point Of Contact
20/1 Supido, 25/1 King Casper, We Dare To Dream
33/1 Miami Matrix, 50/1 Tiger Mask
 
3yo Handicap (8f)

Horses rated 104

12 Past renewals


Wide open race

The market has no idea

FEARNOT is topweight

Drawn in stall 15 of 17
 
Go back to 2000
York 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses under 4 years old
Drawn 10 or higher
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Return a 0-72 record in them 
The following horses fail this

FEARNOT
DIVIDEND
SUPIDO
TIGER MASK

Go back to 2000
York 8f races
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses under 4 years old
Drawn 15 or higher
Return a 0-138 record

The following horses fail this

FEARNOT
DIVIDEND
WE DARE TO DREAM
 
11 of the past 12 winners
Had at least 5 career starts

BIG LEADER has 3 runs
Only the 2018 winner did

Horses from 7f races
With under 5 career starts
Have a 0-9 record so far
Not many tried none won
MONTPELLIER fails this angle

Go back to 2009
July August September
3yo Handicaps over 8f
With more than 6 runners
Horses from 7f races
With under 5 career starts
Return a 0-27 record in them
MONTPELLIER fails this  

SIR PAUL RAMSEY won last time
That was a lower grade 13 days ago

Horses running within 19 days
Have a 0-52 record in the race 
SIR PAUL RAMSEY next to try

MINI MATRIX isn't doing enough
KING CASPER thrashed last time

IMPARTIALITY has 11 runs
Quite exposed going up in class
KNIGHTS GOLD is quite similar
Up in class with 13 career races
Most exposed yet lowest rated

POINT OF CONTACT has 5 runs
He also prepped at Goodwood

Past renewals show
Horses with under 6 runs
Coming from an 8f handicap
Have a 0-22 record in them
The following horses fail this

POINT OF CONTACT
BIG LEADER
SUPIDO

Past renewals show
Horses with under 6 runs
Coming from any handicap
Have a 0-15 record in them
MONTPELLIER fails this  
BIG LEADER fails this  
  
YAH MO BE THERE has 7 runs
He has plenty of group class form
Not many past winners had that
Far from convinced that is ideal
Could be vulnerable to improvers
 
Horses with under 9 runs
Coming from a 7f handicap
Beaten in that race last time
Have a 0-22 record in this
The following horses fail this

MONTPELLIER 
YAH MO BE THERE 


TEROOMM has 6 runs
No strong objections to him
Hard to know where he is
After two modest Ascot runs
Which were not actually modest
Drawn 33 of 33 at Royal Ascot
Whilst high draws were best
It was still quite a toxic draw
Not well drawn last time either
He didn't run badly finishing 8th
When he was impeded late on

FIFTH COLUMN has 9 runs
Ran well in the Golden Mile
When unproven on the soft
Could still have improvement

SEA FORCE has 6 runs
His trainer won this last year
With a horse from the same race
That winner had one more run

This is a strange draw stat

Go back to 1998
York 8f handicaps
Class 4 and higher
Horses aged 3
Under 7 career starts
Absent more than 12 days
Drawn 10 or higher
Return a 0-80 record

SEA FORCE fails this angle
FEARNOT fails this as well

SEA FORCE is still interesting
Pound for pound his trainer
Probably the best in the game

FIFTH COLUMN is a saver bet
 
TEROOMM is riskier but bigger
 
Selection

£4.00 Each Way TEROOMM 8/1-9/1

£2.00 Win Bet FIFTH COLUMN 5/1 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


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