Mathematician 5231
Sunday November 23rd


7 Previews
1 Account Bet
 
 
  

Account Bet

Punchestown 11.43

DESERTMORE HOUSE 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Final Deliberations

National Hunt Message

 
7 Previews

4 Punchestown 
2 Exeter
1 Cork

Cork has a million runners
Only dared to do one race
Punchestown offered most


Future Betting Angles 

Returns with an extended column
Very eccentric hope it's interesting

It reaffirms my controversial view
Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2025
May well be won by Gaelic Warrior
Who runs today at Punchestown
Discusses the King George too





Don't think it is a great message

One or two selections shortened
One of two others are speculative

I do quite like this mares hurdle



Exeter 12.51 

£6.00 Win Bet BETTY'S TIARA 5/1

£4.00 Win Bet EASY LOVE 11/8-6/4

Not suitable for an acc main bet
A small field and weak market
The market disagrees with me
They like the second favourite
My angles do not respect her
Betty's Tiara is drifting a little
Just hoping we have this right




In terms of the account bet
 
There was just one option


Punchestown 11.43 

DESERTMORE HOUSE 4/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4


The Goffer is my danger 
Nearly had  a win bet + saver 
But the price has shortened

Wanted to get the 1-2-3-4 places 
Had Desertmore House been cut
I'd have gone with the Goffer instead 
We will need luck with that decision

My own preference

Would be a win and place bet

But can't stake that for a main bet








Preview Selections
 
Punchestown 11.43 
Desertmore House 4/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Cork 12.30 
Sortudo 1/1-10/11 
Win Bet

Punchestown 12.43
£6.50 Win Bet Captain Ryan Matt 11/1-12/1
£3.50 Win Bet Joueur Masque 7/4-15/8
  
Exeter 12.51 
£6.00 Win Bet Betty's Tiara 5/1
£4.00 Win Bet Easy Love 11/8-6/4

Punchestown 1.52 
Intent Approach 4/1 
Each Way
 
Exeter 2.36 
£7.00 Win Bet Pedley Wood 6/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Hystery Bere 11/2 
£1.50 Win Bet King Califet 9/2

Punchestown 3.00 
Gaelic Warrior 6/4
Win Bet














Yesterday's Summary

Did not have any staked bets
It was a tightly fought out battle
That finished P L P W P L P P

Most races returned our stakes
Did not go for a defensive day
But it might have looked like it
The saver bets were excellent
Made up for the main selections
Many of which ran quite badly

In the end not much in the day
Probably ended up a point down





 
  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS



 
Punchestown 11.43

7/2 Vanillier, 4/1 Desertmore House
5/1 Busselton, 13/2 The Goffer, 8/1 Final Orders
8/1 Outside The Door, 10/1 Vital Island, 14/1 Well Buoy
16/1 Gentleman De Reve, 20/1 Three By Two
25/1 Lough Derg Spirit, Peaches And Cream
33/1 Cavalry Master, 33/1 Walking On Glass
66/1 A Mighty King
 
Risk of Thunder Chase 3m

VANILLIER is the class horse

Horses as old as him 
Running first time out are fine
But in the last few seasons
His early season record is poor

His trainer is out of form as well
His runners have been struggling
So opposing him and stablemates 

FINAL ORDERS is one of them

THREE BY TWO is a mare 
Comes from quite a small yard
Felt there were safer options

BUSSELTON is an 8yo
Won the 4m race here last May
Not many thought he would stay
His 3 runs since are over hurdles
Don't really see that as a positive
He is very exposed for an 8yo

Shortlisting 2

DESERTMORE HOUSE

THE GOFFER

DESERTMORE HOUSE a 10yo
Second here in May to Busselton
Having his cross country debut 
Nothing much in it at the finish
He won a point to point recently 
His profile not 100% bomb proof
He only has the 11 chase races 

Horses aged 10 or more
Under 19 chase races
Have a 0-35 record in this
DESERTMORE HOUSE fails this
Not too worried about that really
Most of the 35 that lost were unfancied
And 4 came 2nd and 5 came 3rd
  
THE GOFFER

Also won a point to point recently 
He has a slightly better profile 
But the price has now shortened

Win and saver was an option
But 1-2-3-4 was hard to resist

Selection

DESERTMORE HOUSE 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4









Cork 12.30

 6/4 Sortudo, 7/4 Jalon d'Oudairies, 4/1 Factual Fact
16/1 Shuttle Diplomacy, 20/1 Whatsanotheryear
22/1 Oaks Soldier, Zanoosh, 25/1 Bokamsin
28/1 Earl Neigh, 40/1 Jukebox Johnny, 50/1 Big Dee
200/1 Beautiful Beauty, 50/1 Startthatmachine
50/1 Tarquin The Proud, Walkmethroughit

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Shapes like a 4 horse race

FACTUAL FACT

Goes from a flat maiden
Right into a maiden hurdle

Had a look at similar types

Go back to 1998 
Horses aged 6 or more
Running in maiden hurdles
Any time of year
Any distance
Having their hurdling debut
Running that season
Coming from a flat maiden
Return a 0-53 record in them
FACTUAL FACT fails this

SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY a 5yo
Pulled up on his hurdling debut
Might win but not very tempting

JALON DOUDAIRIES

Last seen 620 days ago

When 3rd in the Cheltenham Bumper

Top prospect could easily win

His trainer said recently
 
" He?s back in and looks great. 
  The plan is to go novice hurdling 
  with him and we?ll look to give him 
  a gentle start back"

Gentle Start back ?

Does that mean he is not wound up
Will not be given a hard race ?

Not sure but worries me

Going with the Mullins horse

SORTUDO

Also having his seasonal debut

Obviously lots we don't know

But interesting that last week

He was backed into 16/1 favourite
To win next years Albert Bartlett


Selection

SORTUDO 1/1-10/11

Win Bet









Punchestown 12.43

2/1 Joueur Masque, 100/30 County Final
6/1 Cappa Hill, 8/1 Friary Road, 10/1 Captain Ryan Matt
10/1 King In Love, 11/1 Kotkito Bello, 16/1 Allo Al Khawaneej
18/1 Couldntmakeitup

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

JOUEUR MASQUE is top weight

Willie Mullins 6 year old 
Every other runner a 5yo
Hard to judge his chance
He has won at the track
Running off a rating of 126
He may be thrown in here
But we just can not know
Feel he is a must saver bet

Opposing two of his rivals

COUNTY FINAL is a 5yo
Lightly raced with 3 runs
Plenty of weight and 64 days off
 
Handicaps at Punchestown 
Show lightly raced 5 year olds
With absences score badly

Go back to 1998
Punchestown
Handicap hurdles
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 5
Under 5 career starts
Absent more than 58 days
Have a weak 1-68 record
That winner was over 3 miles
COUNTY FINAL has this profile

KOTKIKO BELLO is a 5yo
His last race was over fences
Can be done but not a positive
Coming back down to hurdles
He is also the lowest rated 

KING IN LOVE has claims
But 12 previous hurdle races
Make him the most exposed
May be vulnerable to improvers

CAPPA HILL has a chance
Absent 7 weeks after a win
Not drawn much to his chance
  
CAPTAIN RYAN MATT a 5yo
Looks quite well handicapped

His defeat last time over 4f
Was more than forgivable
One of a handful of horses 
Who probably did too much
And went off a bit too quickly
Ran better than it looked there

JOUEUR MASQUE a saver
 
Selection

£6.50 Win Bet CAPTAIN RYAN MATT 11/1-12/1

£3.50 Win Bet JOUEUR MASQUE 7/4-15/8








Exeter 12.51

13/8 Katie's Melody, 7/4 Easy Love
3/1 Betty's Tiara, 10/1 Pottersville
14/1 Kilworth, 100/1 Only Gossip

Mares' Novices' Hurdle 2m 7f

Small field

KATIE'S MELODY is a 5yo
She won a bumper 14 days ago

Go back to 2007 
Mares Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 6f and more
Any time of the season
Horses from bumpers
Running in the last 7 weeks
Return a 0-44 record in them
KATIE'S MELODY fails this

Go back to 2007 
Mares Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f and more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 5
Coming from bumpers
Running in the last 30 days
Return a 0-74 record in them
KATIE'S MELODY fails this

POTTERSVILLE
KILWORTH

Both look unconvincing
In their most recent races

Prefer two choices

BETTY'S TIARA a 7yo
Very exposed with 13 hurdle runs
Despite that can not rule her out
Found 1 winner with her profile

EASY LOVE is a safer profile
But also a much shorter price

Playing it this way

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet BETTY'S TIARA 5/1

£4.00 Win Bet EASY LOVE 11/8-6/4







Punchestown 1.52

5/2 Custom Taylor, 5/1 Intent Approach, 5/1 Millstream Lady
5/1 Staffordshire Knot, 13/2 Timmy Tuesday, 8/1 Brazil
8/1 Olympic Man, 14/1 Indiana Jones, 16/1 Sarah Beara

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Horses rated 0-140
 
STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT

7 year old topweight
Ran just once in months
Stepping up 4f in distance

Not drawn to his profile
He also fails this strange one

Go back to 2009
Punchestown
Handicaps over 2m 5f +
Any class of race
Any time of year
Male horses
Just 1 run in 6 months
Running within 11 weeks
Carrying 10st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-123 record in them
The following horses fail this

STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT
CUSTOM TAYLOR
INDIANA JONES

MILLSTREAM LADY is a mare
Very exposed with 19 hurdle runs

Go back to 2009
Punchestown
Handicaps over 2m 5f +
Any class of race
Any time of year
Female horses
Over 9 career starts
Absent over 35 days
Return a 0-86 record
MILLSTREAM LADY fails this

SARAH BEATRA also fails 
Quite exposed and months of
 
BRAZIL hasn't won in ages
Just not convincing enough
  
TIMMY TUESDAY is a 7yo
Not first choice going up 6f

OLYMPIC MAN is hard to read

Had 8 runs in 18 months

6 came over fences
2 came on the flat

Not ran in a hurdle race
Since as far back as May 2024
Willie Mullins demands respect
But not a great profile as an 8yo

September to December
Punchestown
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m +
Horses aged 8 or more 
Return a poor 1-113 record
OLYMPIC MAN next to try 

It ws take the same sample

September to December
Punchestown
Handicap Hurdles over 3m +
Horses with over 15 hurdle runs
Have a 0-65 record in them all 
The following horses fail this

MILLSTREAM LADY
SARAH BEATRA
BRAZIL 


INTENT APPROACH

Gets a lot of weight from him
Looks the percentage bet here

Selection
 
INTENT APPROACH 4/1

Each Way







Exeter 2.36

7/2 Good Friday Fairy, 11/2 King Califet
6/1 Hystery Bere,  6/1 Pedley Wood, 7/1 Clotilda
9/1 Zestful Hope, 10/1 Dartmoor Pirate, 12/1 Raffles Hermes
14/1 Paddy In The Caddy, Sizable Sam
33/1 Valirann Gold.

Handicap Chase 2m 3f

Horses rated 0-122

Complicated race

Did not like the topweights

SIZABLE SAM a 10yo
Having his first run of the year
Having fallen at the 1st last time

DARTMOOR PRIDE ran 2 days ago
Beaten 20 lengths is off putting

CLOTILDA is opposed
Don't want a 4 year old filly here

Some of these
Did not do enough last time

PADDY IN THE CADDY
ZESTFUL HOPE

There are a few here
Coming from unsafe sires

GOOD FRIDAY FAIRY is one

He is an 8yo first time out

His sires national hunt runners
Absent more than 169 days
Have a 0-21 record so far
Lot of weight and an absence
Not from a sire I'd like to trust

RAFFLES HERMES a 5yo
British debut percentages say no

Felt this was a split stake race

KING CALIFET is a bit raw

HYSTERY BERE could win
Not the safest of sires to be fair
But his own record supports 

PEDLEY WOOD if fit and ready
Has the most reassuring profile

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet PEDLEY WOOD 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet HYSTERY BERE 11/2
 
£1.50 Win Bet KING CALIFET 9/2







Punchestown 3.00

5/4 Fact To File, 11/4 Gaelic Warrior
9/2 Fastorslow 10/1 Inothewayurthinkin
16/1 Heart Wood, 20/1 Lecky Watson
20/1 Nick Rockett, 25/1 Grangeclare West
66/1 I Am Maximus, James Du Berlais
100/1 Senecia

John Durkan Chase

Grade 1 over 2m 3f


GAELIC WARRIOR a 7yo

Being aimed at the King George
Difficult to call this his prep race 
Given this is a historical Grade 1 
But he will not be at his peak

FASTORSLOW

Very weak in the market

His trainer comments are cold

"I haven't been very hard on him"

Would not have been first choice
As a 9 year old first time out

Suspect Mullins wins this

FACT TO FILE
GAELIC WARRIOR

Hard to split them

FACT TO FILE rated 3lbs higher
Looks the most likely winner today

GAELIC WARRIOR is a horse
I think will have a defining season
He is also my ante post choice
For the Cheltenham Gold Cup 
 
Selecting him in this race

Feel he has a bit more class

Selection

GAELIC WARRIOR 6/4

Win Bet







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Next Week

Plans are unclear at this stage

Hoping to do messages every day

Not bother taking any days off

But there are complications

One of the reasons
Why I backed off yesterday
Did not have an account bet

On Friday

The duchess was in traffic
She was stationary at a junction
And a Van smashed into her car
Expecting it to be written off
Nobody was hurt in the crash

I was dealing with that Friday
It is looking more than likely 
I will have to take her to work
And bring her back every day
So will lose a bit of time there

Also have some other issues

When I was a schoolboy
I was a decent violin player
I was listed/group class then 
Reaching grade 4 of 8 

Gave it up around the time
That shergar won the Derby

About 3 months ago
Decided to take it up again
Been having weekly lessons

Not recaptured past glories
Working like a 0-70 handicapper
But showing signs of improvement
I'm in a Christmas concert soon
To be broadcast on the internet

This week
Having two extra lessons
Call them racecourse gallops
Hopefully put me spot on for that
So that's a bit more time lost


Neither of these disruptions

Should be a major problem

Still hoping to do all next week

Feel confident at the moment

I see the national hunt season
As divided into two segments

The high quality races
The low quality races

Not that confident yet
In the lower grade races
As most races are affected
By lots of seasonal debutants
The season has yet to settle

But in the high quality races
The season is now in full flow
And starting to enjoy it now



Saturdays big race

The Coral Gold Cup

Will be dealt with soon

Maybe in a column tomorrow







Ante Post recap


Back in October

Gave 2 ante post selections

Neither of them staked bets


PDC Darts

£6.00 Win Bet Luke Humphries 5/1-11/2 
£4.00 Win Bet Luke Littler 5/4

This bet is looking very promising

Luke Humphries trades now at 4/1

Luke Littler is still around 5/4-6/5




Cheltenham Gold Cup

GAELIC WARRIOR 14/1
 
Wanted to mention this bet
As Gaelic Warrior runs today






GAELIC WARRIOR 
 
6/4 to win today

5/2 to win the King George

12/1 to win the Gold Cup

Not everyone will agree with me
But feel he is outstanding value
To win Cheltenham's Gold Cup

Connections may find it irresistible
To turn down the chance to run in it
None of the main players scare me



The King George

Has suddenly got interesting

After yesterdays developments

King George Chase

Kempton Park

Boxing Day


5/2 Gaelic Warrior, 4/1 Jango Baie
6/1 The Jukebox Man 7/1 Fact To File
14/1 Fastorslow, 16/1 Banbridge
16/1 Grey Dawning, 20/1 Il Etait Temps
25/1 Il Est Francais 33/1 Champ Kiely
33/1 Heart Wood, 33/1 Ballyburn 40/1 Djelo, 
40/1 Impaire Et Passe 40/1 Lecky Watson
50/1 Spillane's Tower, 50/1 L'homme Presse


Impressive winners yesterday

JANGO BAIE won at Ascot
 
THE JUKEBOX MAN at Haycock

JANGO BAIE is a 6 year old
He has now had 5 chase runs

Past 6yo winners
Were more experienced

Kauto Star had 8 chase runs
Kicking King had 10 chase runs
All the other 6yo winners of this
Had 11 or more chase races

JANGO BAIE is not a match
He also has to prove stamina

If you look at his sire

His runners over 3m and more
In Class 4 or higher grade
Have a 0-19 record so far

His runners over 2m 6f +
In Class 2 and higher grade
Have a 0-13 record so far

Lets call that inconclusive
But it is also unproven too

THE JUKEBOX MAN is a 7yo
Find it hard to like him for this
Having had just 3 chase runs
 
Past 7yo winners
Had the following chase runs

6 16 15 17 8 13 13  

Every previous 7yo winner
Had at least 6 chase races

THE JUKEBOX MAN has 3


Horses with under 6 chase runs
Racing only once this season
Have a 0-18 record since 1997

THE JUKEBOX MAN will fail this

JANGO BAIE will also fails this

Neither of yesterdays winners
Tempt me for the King George


GAELIC WARRIOR

Has his prep run today

He is a 7 year old


One of the best profiles

For the King George is this
 
Horses aged 7
Under 20 career runs
Over 5 chase runs
Just 1 run this season
Coming from a Grade 1-2 race
Beaten under 6 lengths in that
Absent more than 28 days
Return a 5-12 record in this

GAELIC WARRIOR

Will share this best profile

If in today's John  Durkan

He is not beaten over 6 lengths
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