6 Previews 
0 Account Bet
 




Final Deliberations  
   
First message of an 11 day run
Covering the next two weekends
Galway and Goodwood festivals

Had a couple of days to get right
Starting with a 6 race message

6 Previews 

3 Doncaster
2 Worcester
1 Sandown



Mainly just a play around today

 
First and last previews

Worcester Handicap Chases

Just followed some race stats
Not really in my comfort zone
So open minded about those
Not sure how these will play out
Both selections 8/1 so realistic

Happy with the overall content
Given it is coming off a break

But a hard message to stake well
Could have staked it much safer

Several are just split stake bets  
And lacking any safety cushions

This is a good example of that



Sandown 2.10

£8.50 Win Bet JENEVER 11/4-3/1

£1.50 Win Bet GOOD EARTH 5/1



Multiple staking options

Could have gone each way
On either of these two horses
And not gone for a saver bet

A win and place bet
Would be a saver option as well

So will need some staking luck

Not highlighting any one bet

Just a warm up for this new run









Preview Selections


Worcester 1.45 
Magic Seven 9/1-8/1
Each Way

Doncaster 2.00
£7.50 Win Bet Calchas 100/30-7/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Sunset On Leros 3/1-11/4

Sandown 2.10
£8.50 Win Bet Jenever 11/4-3/1
£1.50 Win Bet Good Earth 5/1

Doncaster 3.10 
£7.50 Win Bet Overlooked 3/1-100/30
£2.50 Win Bet Ey Up Its Jazz 3/1-7/2
 
Doncaster 3.45 
£7.50 Win Bet The Cursor 2/1-9/4
£2.50 Win Bet Arabian Poet 3/1
 
Worcester 5.17
£7.00 Win Bet Jack The Savage 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet Fine By Me 7/2-100/30
£1.00 Win Bet Presenting Yeats 12/1









PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Worcester 1.45

4/1 Deep Purple, 5/1 Fever Dream, 5/1 Heroique De Maulde
8/1 Gateau De Miel, 8/1 Magic Seven, 8/1 My Gift To You
10/1 Mole Court, 14/1 Always Busy,  14/1 Tiger Orchid
20/1 Cooper's Cross, 20/1 Scarlet O'Tara.

Handicap Chase 2m 7f

Horses rated 0-120

MOLE COURT is topweight
Just the 1 bad run in months
Hard to make a strong case

DEEP PURPLE a 6yo

Favourite on his chase debut

Respected from Dan Skelton

But he has plenty of weight 
Opposing him on this statistic

Go back 25 years
June July August
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class

Horses under 7
Having their chase debuts
Under 22 career starts
Absent more than 31 days
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-39 record in them

Theses are the only 3 months
When no horse managed to win
DEEP PURPLE fails this angle

We still have to guess

4 Past renewals

The winners had 2 2 2 3 chase runs

Every one was lightly raced


Scarlet O'Tara has 2 chase runs
But pulled up in both of those runs
And is a badly out of form mare

Career Chase runs

20 Cooper's Cross
14 Tiger Orchid
17 Heroique De Maulde
15 Gateau De Miel
15 My Gift To You
13 Mole Court 
10 Fever Dream
8  Always Busy
3  Magic Seven

MAGIC SEVEN with 3 chase runs

Could be the best fit in this handicap
Far less exposed than the majority

Thats the plan

Even if it means betting Jonjo
  
Selection

MAGIC SEVEN 9/1-8/1

Each Way









Doncaster 2.00

11/4 Sunset On Leros, 3/1 Allegresse, 7/2 Double Eagle
 5/1 Erbil, 13/2 Calchas, 8/1 Ciao Capo, 20/1 Raspoutine
40/1 Hood Wink, 50/1 Baldosa, 66/1 Captain Bruce
100/1 Rupert Ritzik.
 
2yo Novice 7f

Should involve about 5-6

DOUBLE EAGLE is unraced
Sired by Dark Angel over 7f

Unraced 2 year olds 
Sired by Dark Angel
Over 6f and further
Have won many races
On soft and heavy ground
They have a 0-134 record 
DOUBLE EAGLE fails this

Assuming the ground dries out
Good to soft invalidates the stat
But it is still asking a lot to win
On a big track in quite a big field

ERBIL is also unraced
Drawn 11 of 11 happy to avoid  

ALLEGRESSE is unraced
Sired by a 30 year old stallion
Oasis Dream his sire 
Has bred unraced winners
On softer ground and over 7f
But none have won in over 7 years
The last 33 have all been beaten

Going with an experienced horse

In a race we are all guessing in

Selection
 
£7.50 Win Bet CALCHAS 100/30-7/2

£2.50 Win Bet SUNSET ON LEROS 3/1-11/4








Sandown 2.10

7/2 Jenever, 4/1 Silver Wraith, 11/2 Blind Beggar
6/1 Cloud King, 6/1 Good Earth, 8/1 Honour Your Dreams
10/1 Tourist, 16/1 Dapper Valley, Sandscreendeliverd.

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-82
  
The draw could be important
So far all the 11 past winners 
Were drawn in stalls 2-3-4-5

CLOUD KING is drawn 9 of 9
He's raced just once in 85 days
Not drawn to him because of it
 
Go back to 2011
Sandown 5f handicaps
Under 16 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 23 days
Drawn in stall 7 or higher
Have a modest 1-48 record  
BLIND BEGGAR next to try

SILVER WRATH is a 3yo
She's a bit raw with just 5 runs

Drawn 7 
She is not in the ideal range
But it is her inexperience
That could be a bigger issue

Go back to 1997
Sandown 5f handicaps
Open to all aged horses
Any class of race
Any time of the year
Horses aged 3
Under 8 career runs
Taking on older horses
Have a weak 1-45 record
In races in Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-37 record in them
Two horses fail this angle

SILVER WRATH
SANDSCREENDELIVERED

TOURIST is a 4yo
Comes here after 2 poor runs

HONOUR YOUR DREAMS might win
But after 52 runs may need a career best

Shortlisting 2

GOOD EARTH

JENEVER

JENEVER was 2nd in this last year


Selection

£8.50 Win Bet JENEVER 11/4-3/1

£1.50 Win Bet GOOD EARTH 5/1









Doncaster 3.10

7/2 Ey Up Its Jazz, 4/1 Overlooked, 6/1 Astronomica
6/1 Harbour Vision, 7/1 Flag Carrier, 10/1 Electric Avenue
12/1 Barleybrown, Electric Lightning, 20/1 Sir Maxi.

8f handicap

Horses rated 0-65

FLAG CARRIER is topweight
An exposed 4yo off 119 days

June July August
8f handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 4
Over 13 career runs
Absent more than 50 days
Return a 0-95 record
FLAG CARRIER fails this

Others look underraced

ASTRONOMICA an older mare
Has ran just once  in 265 days

She has been well supported
Clearly fancied from a small yard
But without a winner in 467 days
And she only cost 9 grand 

ELECTRIC LIGHTING a 4yo
Has ran once since October 2024

SIR MAXI is unsafe  from a 6f race

BARLEYBROWN is very exposed
In the right grade but lacks class

HARBOUR VISION is a 10 year old
Just 1 run in 54 days is not a positive
He has the worst of the drawn in stall,10

Go back to 2000
Doncaster 8f handicaps
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn in stall 10
Have a 0-34 record in them
HARBOUR VISION fails this

Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 9 or higher are 0-26
HARBOUR VISION fails this

ELECTRIC AVENUE an older mare
She has to come up from a 7f race
Average profile she has enough weight

EYE UP ITS JAZZ has hit form
He has an acceptable profile

OVERLOOKED is a 4 year old
Decent profile had some excuses
Been badly drawn twice this season
Soft ground is the question mark
Two bad runs both times he tried
But he may well not have stayed  
He may not have been fit either

 Selection

£7.50 Win Bet OVERLOOKED 3/1-100/30

£2.50 Win Bet EYE UP ITS JAZZ 100/30-7/2








Doncaster 3.45

7/4 The Cursor, 5/2 Arabian Poet, 
5/2 Stem, 8/1 Blue Martini, 14/1 Codiak
 
3yo Novice 12f

The only unraced horses
Are the two rank outsiders
Either could win first time
But more likely they don't

Staying with experience

STEM has raced once
That was 10 months ago

Do not want to risk him
Not sired by Calyx over this far

The sire has bred 1 winner at 12f

But this is a grade a track
Big wide open course soft ground
And throw in a long absence
Just not a sire I would trust

ARABIAN POET

Not ran in 274 days
Dissappointing twice so far
Having cost a Million guineas
Comeback run now gelded
He could easily win or flop

Going to squeeze him in
As a saver bet around 4/1

THE CURSOR at 9/4

Becomes a bet just over 11/8
Against two unraced outsiders
And Stem with stamina unproven

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet THE CURSOR 9/4

£2.50  Win Bet ARABIAN POET 3/1







Worcester 5.17

7/2 Fine By Me, 9/2 Lyness Dancer, 9/2 Star Legend
7/1 Jungle Wood, 9/1 Mayos Vendangeur, 10/1 Big Bee Hive
10/1 Highway Hero, 12/1 Jack The Savage, 16/1 No Rematch
16/1 Presenting Yeats.
 
Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

Amateur Riders

19 Renewals of this race

Just following some angles

Horses aged 6
Have a 0-33 record so far

Several 6 year olds in this

STAR LEGEND one with 12st

MAYOS VENDANGEUR a 6yo mare
Steps up 6f in distance from 2m 1f
 
Horses with under 9 hurdle runs
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 0-75 record in this

The following fail this

HIGHWAY HERO
JUNGLE WOOD
LYNESS DANCER

NO REMATCH is an out of form 11yo

Horses running this season
Beaten over 24 lengths last time
Have a 0-70 record in this race

BIG BEE HIVE fails this statistic
HIGHWAY HERO does as well

My angles shortlist 3

FINE BY ME 7/2

JACK THE SAVAGE 10/1

PRESENTING YEATS 14/1

Split staking these



Selection

£7.00 Win Bet JACK THE SAVAGE 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet FINE BY ME 7/2-100/30

£1.00 Win Bet PRESENTING YEATS 12/1








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
  

Quick look at a Saturday race

Statistics included below


Saturday July 27th

Ascot 3.00

Aalto 6/1 Akkadian Thunder 8/1 Classic 8/1
Zoum Zoum 9/1 Kodi Lion 10/1 Billyjoh 12/1 
Fresh 12/1 Oliver Show 12/1 Qazaq 12/1 Array 14/1 
Northern Express 14/1 Galeron 16/1 Yorkshire 16/1
Glenfinnan 20/1 Lord Bertie 20/1 Sword 20/1
Tiger Mask 20/1 Two Tribes 20/1 Golden Mind   25/1
Pals Battalion 25/1 Cerulean Bay 33/1 City House 33/1
Racingbreaks Ryder 33/1 Thunder Roar 33/1
Al Ameen 40/1 Noble Truth 40/1

Moet & Chandon

International Stakes
 
High class handicap

There is a draw bias

Likely a track bias as well

Last years winner
Went against the statistics

NORTHERN EXPRESS drawn 1 
Led the field raced up the middle  
And was not caught by anything
Not something you would expect
He may be trying to win this again

Race statistics below

I've applied them and had a look

Only 2 horses in this field
Offered enough to be shortlisted

BILLYJOH will be one

He's never won in this class
Never won off his current rating
But he has had two placed runs
That suggest he has the ability

YORKSHIRE is the other

I can see him in two ways

He could be well underraced

But a more forgiving approach
And he comes out like winners
Taking a positive view of him 









Ante Post Statistics

Saturday July 27th

Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon

International Stakes
 
Aalto 6/1 Akkadian Thunder 8/1 Classic 8/1
Zoum Zoum 9/1 Kodi Lion 10/1 Billyjoh 12/1 
Fresh 12/1 Oliver Show 12/1 Qazaq 12/1 Array 14/1 
Northern Express 14/1 Galeron 16/1 Yorkshire 16/1
Glenfinnan 20/1 Lord Bertie 20/1 Sword 20/1
Tiger Mask 20/1 Two Tribes 20/1 Golden Mind   25/1
Pals Battalion 25/1 Cerulean Bay 33/1 City House 33/1
Racingbreaks Ryder 33/1 Thunder Roar 33/1
Al Ameen 40/1 Noble Truth 40/1
 
7f Handicap (Class 2)
 
Past winners
Official Ratings

102 96 98 106 95 103 100 90 100 103
95 95 99 89 100 99 104 88 97 105
 
Horses carrying 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 1-101 record since 2011

The Draw

Recent  renewals
Draw of first 1-2-3-4

01 17 18 12
12 03 10 11
04 15 17 21
19 18 20 12
21 23 27 26
11 18 16 29
14 26 17 20
14 22 2 6

Middle high seem best
Since the stalls renumbered
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
Have a 3-111 record in this race

Horses aged under 5
Drawn 12 or lower
Have a 1-68 record since 2011
 
Horses aged 3
Have a 1-58 record
That winner had 7st 12lbs
Do not score well in this

Horses aged 4
Over 13 career runs
With 8st 12lbs or more 
Have a 0-31 record in this  

Horses aged 5
Won 6 renewals and are 6-142
Those with 9st 2lbs or more
Had a 0-35 record in this 

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a poor 3-171 record

Those who last time out
Were beaten over 3 lengths
Have winless 0-105 record

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 14 days
Have a poor 1-100 record

Horses aged 6 or more
More than 24 career starts
Under 4 runs in the last 12 weeks
Return a 0-70 record in them
 
Horses from Listed/ Group races
Have a 0-63 record since 2001
 
Go back to 2000
Horses from 6f of shorter
Have a 4-103 record 
Those winning last time are 0-14
Those aged 6 or older are 0-33
Those carrying over 9st are 0-29
2 of the 4 ran in the Wokingham
  
Longest absent winner 38 days
Those absent longer are 0-62
 
Horses with over 10 runs
Need 2 or more runs in 12 weeks
Those with fewer are 0-26

Horses with under 2 runs
In the previous 106 days
Have a 0-26 record in this

Horses winning last time out
Absent over 2 weeks
Aged 5 or more are 0-26 
Carrying 8st 10lbs or more are 0-29   

No horse won after a heavy defeat
Those beaten over 15 lengths 0-36
 
Claiming riders
With 5lbs or more allowance
Have a 0-48 record in this race
  
Horses from Class 3 or lower
Have a negative 2-113 record
The only winners dropped in trip
And both came from Newmarket

Horses from Class 3 or lower
Those aged 5 or more 0-55
Those absent over 3 weeks 0-42
Those with 8st 7lbs + are 0-36
Those from 7f or shorter 0-91
 
Best trial race the Bunbury Cup
7 past winners came from there
Including 3 of the last 10 winners

3 winners came from the Hunt Cup
3 came from Buckingham Palace

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