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Final Deliberations


Fresh new run of 12 messages  
Taking us to Sunday 17th August 
Hoping to cover all 12 messages 
It Includes the York Ebor meeting



Had a day off yesterday

Not fully would up today

So have not pressed hard

Given the horrible weather



The first 1-2-3 previews
Don't really convince me
Hopeful you never know
But I like the last 2 races



Making this my best bet



Gowran Park 5.05

HARRY THE ROGUE 4/1 

Each Way 



Only downside with this bet

There are only 1-2-3 places

You can get 1-2-3-4 on Betfair

That would be a sensible plan






Preview Selections



Salisbury 3.00 
£8.00 Win Bet Gladiadora 7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Sunny Corner 9/2
  
Beverley 3.45 
£7.00 Win Bet Sir Maxi 4/1-9/2
£3.00 Win Bet Overlooked 5/2

Salisbury 4.30 
Revoir 2/1 
Win Bet
 
Gowran Park 5.05
Harry The Rogue 4/1 
Each Way

Ffos Las 5.55 
Fiorella Princess 2/1
Win Bet 






 
 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
  
 
Salisbury 3.00

5/2 Flag Carrier, 3/1 Gladiadora, 4/1 Hoornblower
9/2 Sunny Corner, 9/1 Little She, 10/1 Fernando
16/1 Jet Packer.

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-67

Got a few issues with some

HOORNBLOWER the topweight
Also faces 59 days off the track

FLAG CARRIER has 1 run in 139 days

8f Handicaps
July to October
Any class of race
Shiw 4 year olds
Over 18 career runs
Just 1 run in months
But running within 74 days
Have a 0-30 record in them
FLAG CARRIER next to try

LITTLE SHE isn't running well

JET PACKER isn't progressing
Without a strong market move
I would see him as vulnerable

FERNANDO is a 3yo
He has 173 days absence
And has downgraded stables

His new stable are interesting
Good strike rate after 2 seasons
But the profile is not tempting

8f Handicaps
July to September
Any class of race
Horses aged 3
Over 6 career runs
Absent over 99 days
Have a 0-41 record
FERNANDO has this profile

None of the above are safe

Playing it this way

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet GLADIADORA 4/1

£2.00 Win Bet SUNNY CORNER 9/2





Beverley 3.45

5/2 Elettaria, 11/4 Dumfries, 3/1 Overlooked
13/2 Sir Maxi, 7/1 Hallucinate,  12/1 Little Beck Annie
12/1 Rum Runner, 14/1 Mavetheforcebewivu
16/1 Desert Dream, 25/1 Twilight Jazz.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-55

DUMFRIES is topweight
Drawn more to higher weights
There is a statistical observation
That makes me question him
Rated only 55 and drawn in stall 9
 
Go back to 2011 
Beverley 7f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horse aged 5 or more
Who are rated under 59
Drawn in stall 9 and higher
You find a 0-51 record in them
DUMFRIES is next to try

Non runners would help him

Some lightweights are unsafe

MAVETHEFORCEBEWIVU a 3yo
Just a 3yo and drawn widest of all

Some are inexperienced

HALLUCINATE a filly with 3 runs

LITLE BECK ANNIE a 3yo filly
Just 4 runs and has an absence

RUM RUNNER a low scoring 10yo
DESERT DREAM out form 11yo
TWILIGHT JAZZ offers very little

ELETTARIA is an older mare
She is fit and won last time out
But only in a classified stakes race
His numbers show his limitations

OVERLOOKED is a 4 year old
He has good enough numbers
Decent profile had some excuses
Been badly drawn twice this season
May need luck in running if held up
But he is in a very winnable race
Just shorter than you would like

SIR MAXI is shortlistable
Given all his 8 career wins
Came with a run within 19 days
Just 33/1 in his last 2 races
Which were only class 6 like this

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SIR MAXI 4/1-7/2

£3.00 Win Bet OVERLOOKED 5/2







Salisbury 4.30

6/4 Revoir, 4/1 Azaniya, 5/1 Wujjood
8/1 Ambiente Amigo, 10/1 Miss Justice, Rose Prick
16/1 Elsie's Ruan, 20/1 Nanino Niyati
25/1 Sea Just In Time.

Upavon Stakes

Listed Race for Fillies 10f

Ran a few profiles

Past renewals show  

3 year olds
From a non pattern race
In the previous 7 weeks
Have a 0-28 record in this
The following all fail this

MISS JUSTICE
AZANIYA
NANINO NIYATI
WUJJOOD

ROSE PRICE has a chance
But she is the oldest horse
Up in trip and 1 run in 106 days

AMIENTE AMIGO has a chance
But seems held by the favourite
And has the widest draw as well

REVOIR appeals most
Too inexperience in the Oaks
Being asked too much last time
In what is a decent trial for this

Selection

REVOIR 2/1

Win Bet






Gowran Park 5.05

5/2 Shoot To Kill, 3/1 Bucaneer's Spirit
13/2 Harry The Rogue, 15/2 Beautiful Affair
8/1 Mighty Day, 10/1 Gloriously Glam
12/1 Hurricane Helen, 20/1 Kaptain Bay
20/1 Thilos, 20/1 Truth Be Told, 33/1 Yes Oui Si
50/1 Sara Verdier, 66/1 Blathnaid
66/1 Temple City.

Claiming race 8f

No history to go on

Do we oppose 3 year olds ?

Looked at every claimer
Run before at Gowran Park
Any distance
Any time of year

No 3 year old has won any
Only 14 tried but none won
In a big field I'd be sceptical
Opposing these 3 year olds

TRUTH BE TOLD is a 3yo
Widest draw and 47 days off

GLORIOUSLY GLAM a 3yo filly
Does not have many positives

SARA VERDIER inexperienced 3yo
THILOS a 3yo looks a bit too raw

MIGHT DAY another 3yo
Has raced only once in 10 months

BEAUTIFUL AFFAIR another 3yo
Might be the most likely 3yo winner
But I would prefer an older horse

HURRICANE HELEN a 7yo mare
Has not had a race in 99 days now

SHOOT TO KILL is top rated

Do we want an 8yo drawn in 11 ?

Go back to 2011
Gowran Park 8f races
With under 16 runners
Horses aged 7 or older
Absent more than 13 days
Drawn 6 or higher
Have a 0-62 record in them
SHOOT TO KILL fails this
HURRICANE HELEN does

None of the outsiders appeal

KAPTAIN BAY might pop up
But comes here from a hurdle race
Which does weaken his profile

Settled on a couple of  4 year olds

BUCANEER'S SPIRIT could go well
First run for a new stable is a concern

HARRY THE ROGUE 

Has a fitter profile

Just preferred his chance

Selection

HARRY THE ROGUE 4/1

Each Way






Ffos Las 5.55

2/1 Hello Luna, 9/4 Fiorella Princess
11/4 Sundiata Keita, 7/1 Sultan Of Oj
10/1 Jagetme.

3yo Handicap 5f

Small field

Runs since June 1st
 
4 Fiorella Princess
4 Sultan Of Oj
3 Hello Luna
2 Jagetme
1 Sundiata Keita

SUNDIATA KEITA 

Has the fewest recent runs
He has 7 weeks off the track
Every one of his opponents
Have raced in the last 18 days
And have more recent races

He has also recently been sold
Downgraded stables for £1200
Only a 3yo that's a bit too cheap
Right or wrong opposing him

SULTAN OF OJ lowest rated
Has been sold this year for £900

JAGETME is hard to go with
Finishing last in his last 2 races

Staying with the topweights

HELLO LUNA
FIORELLA PRINCESS

Tempted to bet both

FIORELLA PRINCESS a filly

Has the fittest profile

Doubt she stays 6f well
I'd excuse all her 6f races
Led at Brighton last time
Got caught late in the race
This is a 4 second shorter trip
Should give her every chance

Selection

FIORELLA PRINCESS 2/1

Win Bet 








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Saturday

Great St Wilfrid Handicap

Race Statistics are below

  

Ante Post Statistics

Saturday August 16th

Ripon 3.20

Great St Wilfrid Handicap
 
Annaf 6/1 Rousing Encore 6/1 Rock Opera 8/1
Secret Guest 9/1 Orazio 10/1 Mister Sox 10/1
Alzahir 10/1 Grand Grey 10/1 Kodiac Thriller 12/1
First Folio 12/1 Grant Wood 14/1 City Walk 14/1
Fortamour 14/1 Dark Thirty 16/1 Nostrum 20/1
Intervention 20/1 Fivethousandtoone 20/1
Abduction 20/1 Dothan 25/1 Prince of Pillo 25/1
Northcliff 25/1 Supreme King 40/1 Azure Zain 40/1
Beyond Borders 50/1


The last 28 winners
Won off these ratings

88 89 90 92 88 99 97 
100 98 96 94 94 99 87 
95 94 100 92 98 99 80 
98 96 83  85 75 101 83

Horses rated 102 or more
Have a 0-56 record in this
 
The last 20 winners of this
Were all rated 87 or higher

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a poor 0-61 record

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 29 days
Have a 0-34 record in this race
 
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 14 days
Have a poor 1-98 record
Those with 9st or more 0-36
 
Horses aged 3 are 3-50
They all ran within 3 weeks
They were drawn 6 7 7
 
Horses aged 4
Won 9 of the recent renewals
Those absent over 21 days 0-26
None won with 9st 9lbs + (0-10)

25 of the last 27 winners
Ran within the past 3 weeks
Those that did not were 3-104
Those aged 3-4 doing this 0-35
Those with 9st 2lbs + are 0-35
From Class 3 or lower all 35 lost
 
Horses absent over a month
Won 2 of the 24 renewals (2-70)
Both winners were 5 year olds
Those with 9st 2lbs or more 0-29

The longest absent winner
Won with a break of 105 days

Horses from 5f races
Have a 4-94 record
Those absent more than 14 days
Have an overall 0-42 record
 
Horses from 7f races
Have a poor 1-63 record
That was a 4yo back in 2002

Horses from class 4 or lower
Beaten last time out are 0-26
Absent over 14 days are 0-16
 
Horses from Pattern races
Have a 0-21 record since 2000
 
Since the stalls renumbered
Winners came from these stalls
16 6 9 19 17 15 19 10 13 8 4 9 10 16
Horses drawn 1-2-3 are 0-42
 
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