5 Previews 
0 Account Bet 
 
  



Final Deliberations 
  
5 Previews 

3 Uttoxeter
1 Catterick
1 Killarney


Feels an unusual message 
Only managed the 5 previews
Ran into one of two dead ends
My original best bet pulled out

Uttoxeter offers us 3 previews 
My race selection questionable

What this message tells me
I should have taken 2 days off
I'm usually too stupid to do that

Not all hope is lost

Yesterdays message fine
If anything it overperformed
Some decent prices today
Only need the one to go in
 
Would have liked more races

And more confidence in them


Highlighting the opening race



Uttoxeter 2.38 


£8.00 Win Bet THAIS TOIR 4/1

£1.00 Win Bet SIDE STEPPER 7/1-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet MINI FORTUNE 7/1-8/1



Novice Handicap Chase

Going with a 10 year old  !

Several his age and more
Have won this race before

He may be in a good place
To exploit a lenient rating






Preview Selections 


Uttoxeter 2.38 
£8.00 Win Bet Thais Toir 4/1
£1.00 Win Bet Side Stepper 7/1-8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Mini Fortune  7/1-8/1 

Catterick 3.00 
£7.00 Win Bet Shetakesthegold 6/1-11/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Maasai Mata 9/4-5/2 

Uttoxeter 3.08 
Joueuse Royale 10/11 
Win Bet

Uttoxeter 4.38 
Portcammon 6/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4
 
Killarney 5.20
£7.50 Win Bet  Heliogabalus 9/1-8/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Catena Zapata 3/1








Yesterday's Summary
 
Did not expect much yesterday
But we actually finished in front
Top of the message led the way
Message finished L L P W L W
Started badly in the first 2 races
Hurt You Never won as a saver
Kamikaz Du Plessis also won
But odds on after a non runner
Woodstream Lad the highlight
By winning the last race at 8/1
Enough profit in it to get ahead 
Not by much but happy overall
As I was expecting much less






PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 


Uttoxeter 2.38
 
4/1 Lucky Rose, 9/2 Mcgregors Charge, 5/1 Karavomylos
7/1 Lelantos, 8/1 Thais Toir, 8/1 Side Stepper, 10/1 Mini Fortune
12/1 Deadly Missile, 12/1 Faerie Cutlass,20/1 Zoffalee.

Novice Handicap Chase 3m 2f

Open race

Every past winner of this
Had 10 or fewer chase runs
Opposing those having more

ZOFFALEE
DEADLY MISSILE

KARAVOMYLOS a 6 year old
Made his chase debut last time
But has to carry 12st weight 
 
Inexperienced chases do win
None with under 2 chase runs
Have won with 11st 7lbs or more

Go back to 2005
June July August
Novice Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
With over 5 runners
Horses with over 7 runs
Under 2 previous chase runs
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-35 record
The following horses fail this
 
KARAVOMYLOS
FAERIE CUTLASS
LELANTOS
 
Mares are 0-30 in this race


LUCKY ROSE is a mare
All 30 of those have failed so far
but she has not done much wrong
Won a weaker race last time out
But she is fit and running very well
 
MCGREGORS CHARGE 

He ticks a lot of boxes
One of those consistent types
You'd consider each way
But there are not 4 places
And not sure about his stamina

His 5 chase runs
Between 2m 4f and 3 miles
Have produced 4 places 
But this is 2 furlongs further
He comes from the only sire
Who has no winners over this far
  
MINI FORTUNE is an 8yo mare
Not keen on her 74 day absence
But she could have improvement

SIDE STEPPER is a 6 year old
Enough experience can improve
Has to put a poor run behind him

THAIS TOIR is fine as a 10yo
Looks well handicapped off 74
Looks short of recent races  
But he won a recent point to point
Has upgraded stables as well
And is not too exposed over fences

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet THAIS TOIR 4/1

£1.00 Win Bet SIDE STEPPER 7/1-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet MINI FORTUNE 7/1-8/1








Catterick 3.00

15/8 Shetakesthegold, 3/1 Gillali Lass
13/2 Maasai Mata, 8/1 Woody Y Fernandez
10/1 Maledetta Minerva, 12/1 Ocean Pie.

2yo Nursery 6f

Horses rated 0-55

SHETAKESTHEGOLD topweight

Whilst she seems to start slowly
I am surprised she is not shorter

Only doing this race
As the favourite fails an angle

GILALI LASS is a filly
She is up in trip from 5f
She has raced 4 times
The last race just 7 days ago
Ran her profile it wasn't safe

Go back to 2007
6f Nurseries
Class 5 and lower
Any month of the year
Fillies from 5f races
Under 5 career starts
Running within 10 days
Have a 0-27 record
GILALI LASS next to try

Does not mean she wont win
But none like her have so far
MALEDETTA MINERVA also does

Looking for a good alternative
WOODY Y FERNANDEZ is out
Low figures has not done enough

MAASAI MATA could win
Probably the most likely winner
But making her the saver bet

SHETAKESTHEGOLD is the bet
Market suggests she is a real pig
Maybe but this is a winnable race

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SHETAKESTHEGOLD 6/1-11/2
 
£3.00 Win Bet MAASAI MATA 9/4-5/2 








Uttoxeter 3.08

10/11 Joueuse Royale, 7/2 Never Told Me, 9/2 Appleshaw
7/1 Chips And Rice, 8/1 Saratoga Lass, 25/1 Elusive Feeling
25/1 Kottayam, 33/1 Brionywells, 50/1 Artic Sting
100/1 Love Is A Rose, 150/1 Nanny Daisy
200/1 Hannahs Story.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m

JOUEUSE ROYALE

Sets the standard
Has the most experience
Should be able to win this

Did not like her rivals much

Go back to 2007
February to September
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or shorter
Horses aged 6 or more
Under 3 career races
Just 1 previous hurdle run
Return a 0-60 record in them
APPLESHAW has this profile

NEVER TOLD ME a 6yo
Only has bumper form so far
No match to any similar winner

SARATOGA LASS a 9yo
Has raced once since 2022
Yet may even be the danger
But felt the favourite will win

Selection

JOUEUSE ROYALE 10/11

Win Bet








Uttoxeter 4.38

11/4 Carlton, 3/1 Monticello, 7/1 Basilette
7/1 Diesel Line, 9/1 Portcammon, 10/1 Morandi Second
14/1 Granny B, 14/1 Window Of Time, 16/1 Hill Station
25/1 Banny Hill Lass, Northern Rose, 40/1 Bara Tara
50/1 Millsbridge, Sharona.


Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m

Horses rated 0-95

CARLTON is topweight

He is a 5yo with 11st 12lbs

Won well at Southwell
Dissappointed last time

Do we want him or not ?

The problem with his profile
As a 5yo with plenty of weight
He has had 35 lifetimes starts
Only 5 hurdle runs
But 30 flat races too

Go back to 1997
June July August
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Any distance 
With more than 5 runners
Horses aged 5
Over 20 lifetime starts
Absent over 12 days
Carrying11st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-41 record  
CARLTON has this profile

If we expand that
Look at bigger field races
Run at any time of year

Go back to 2004 
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Any class
Any distance 
Any time of year
With more than 8 runners
Horses aged 5
Over 22 lifetime starts
Absent over 12 days
Carrying11st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-80 record  
CARLTON has this profile

So going to oppose him

Lots of known unknowns

Especially in a big field like this
 
BASILETTE missed out
As quite an exposed mare
With just 2 runs in months
GRANNY B another mare
Did not offer enough to tempt
And hardly from a reliable sire 

MONTICELLO has a chance
But was just 40/1 when he won

DIESEL LINE could be the one
But has 96 days off the track

Decided to go this way

Selection

PORTCAMMON 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4



 


Killarney 5.20

 5/2 Shoot To Kill, 7/2 Catena Zapata, 9/2 After Love
10/1 Heliogabalus, 10/1 Sugar Club, 10/1 Summer Island
14/1 Captain Hanley, Casanova, Mono River, 16/1 Mogwli
20/1 Reponse Finale, Temple City, 66/1 Master Of Puppets.

Claiming Race 8f

Official ratings show

SHOOT TO KILL is the best horse

But an 8yo and going up in distance
He also fails a quirky draw statistic
 
Go back to 2011
Killarney 8f races
With under 15 runners
Horses aged 6 or older
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Return a 0-56 record 
SHOOT TO KILL fails this
MOGWLI also fails this too


Horses aged 3 can win
But they do underperform

SUGAR CLUB a 3yo filly
Has just downgraded stables
Don't see enough positives

SUMMER ISLAND a 3yo
Has only raced 5 times before
His type don't score very well

AFTER LOVE only has 4 runs 
As a filly with 1 run in 154 days
Would see her as opposable

Similar races 
Run in June July August
Horses from 11f or further
Have a 0-44 record in them
MONO RIVER has this problem

CASANOVA is running poorly
CAPTAIN HARLEY is unsafe
Down in trip just 6 career runs

CATENA ZAPATA

He's had his problems
But this is a drop in class
Don't see many dangers
But he is short and frustrating
Going to make him the saver

HELIOGABALUS is a 4yo
Not progressive but has ability
He ran well recently at Limerick
His flop last time out is a worry
May have been a pace collapse
Looked like they went off fast


Selection

£7.50 Win Bet  HELIOGABALUS 9/1-10/1

£2.50 Win Bet CATENA ZAPATA 3/1
 
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