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1 Account Bet




Account Bet


Wolverhampton 2.45

£4.25 Each Way SYMBOL OF LIGHT 7/1-13/2

£1.50 Win Bet LOCAL HERO 5/1-11/2
 
1/4 Odds

1-2-3-4





  


Final Deliberations 

First of 7 high tempo messages 
Not the easiest of openings today
Today looks harder than Cheltenham

9 Previews

3 Wolverhampton
3 Sandown
2 Hereford
1 Gowran Park
 
Message has some quality in it
But not as balanced as I'd like it

Brace yourself for a tough start
Some big priced early selections

The two big sandown handicaps
We may have to write them off
Will do well to break level in them
Given we are with some outsiders


Most of softer races come later 
We may be well behind half way

There was only 1 sensible option
If there was to have been any bet
It was this split stake or no bet





Wolverhampton 2.45

£4.25 Each Way SYMBOL OF LIGHT 7/1-15/2

£1.50 Win Bet LOCAL HERO 5/1-11/2
 
1/4 Odds

1-2-3-4


Felt the angles were persuasive
Could have chosen the wrong 1
We will need some luck in running
But 4 places is a bonus in this field









Preview Selections  

Hereford 1.30 
£8.00 Win Bet Musique De Fee  4/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Thirtyfour Thirty 16/1

Sandown 1.50 
£2.50 Each Way Elysian Knight 16/1-18/1 
£2.50 Each Way Not So Woolly 16/1-18/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Gowran Park 2.10 
Grimaud 11/10-5/4 
Win Bet

Sandown 2.25 
£2.50 Each Way Sorceleur 14/1-16/1 
£2.50 Each Way To Chase A Dream 20/1-18/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5
  
Wolverhampton 2.45
£4.25 Each Way Symbol Of Light 7/1-15/2
£1.50 Win Bet Local Hero 5/1-11/2
1/4 Odds
1-2-3-4

Wolverhampton 3.20
£6.00 Win Bet Royal Zabeel 5/1-11/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Jabaara 2/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Golden Mind 16/1

Sandown 3.35 
£9.00 Win Bet Goshen 3/1
£1.00 Win Bet Hubrisko 8/1-9/1

Hereford 3.45 
Yes Day 11/10 
Win Bet

Wolverhampton 3.55
£9.00 Win Bet Miami Matrix 6/4
£1.00 Win Bet Arizona Rock 11/1-10/1








PROFILES & PREVIEWS

  

Hereford 1.30

4/1 Bobalot, 4/1 Musique De Fee, 11/2 Kentford Mallard
6/1 Get Cracking, 7/1 Newtonian, 8/1 Heart Of Rome
8/1  One Man Party, 9/1 Miss Pearl, 20/1 Our Flying Angel
25/1 Thirtyfour Thirty, 50/1 Orange Diamond
100/1 Bellever Tor.

Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f

Opposing the following

NEWTONIAN ran 15 days ago
Did not do enough to trust here

ORANGE DIAMOND weak sire
BELIEVER TOR is outclassed
OUR FLYING ANGEL is a mare
Happy to avoid with a long break
HEART OF ROME is an 8yo
Not too strong on sire statistics
May also be underraced this year
MISS PEARL is a 9 year old mare
Not safe goingup in distance
KENTFORD MALLARD a 12yo
Could not risk him going up a mile

That leaves 4

BOBALOT
MUSIQUE DE FEE
GET CRACKING
ONE MAN PARTY
  
If we go back to 2011
No horse has won this
When rated 80 or lower

ONE MAN PARTY is rated 76
He's ran once in 96 days now

BOBALOT has a chance
But has plenty of weight with 12st
This season he has ran twice
But that was 1 race and 5 hurdles
Before he unseated last time out
That makes him difficult to read 

MUSIQUE DE FEE is a mare
With a good run just 6 days ago
Happy to have her on the staking

GET CRACKING is a 7yo
Been chasing so hard to read
But unexposed and a fit profile

Not sure if this will work out...

Go back to 2009
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
With over 5 runners
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or older
Under 8 career starts
Coming from a chase
That was a non graded one
That was over 2m 6f or more
Running within 110 days
Carrying 11st or more
Return a 0-57 record

That is one big messy angle
GET CRACKING does fail it

THIRTYFOUR THIRTY topweight
Is he doing enough to trust him ?
Not sure but his last run at Chepstow
Was a first run for a new stable
May have been a bit too soft there

All things considered

Playing it this way
 
Selection

£8.00 Win Bet MUSIQUE DE FEE 4/1

£2.00 Win Bet THIRTYFOUR THIRTY 16/1








Sandown 1.50

7/2 Meetmebythesea, 4/1 Belliano, 5/1 George's Lad
6/1 The Kemble Brewery, 12/1 Peso, 14/1 Elysian Knight
14/1 It's Hard To Know, Not So Woolly, 16/1 Kepler's Law
16/1 Silver Thorn, 20/1 Laurens Bay, 25/1 Disco Davis,
25/1 Followcato, 25/1 Malinificent, 33/1 Aviation
33/1 Off The Jury, 40/1 Illegal d'Ainay, 50/1 Ken Roy

Novices' Handicap Hurdle

Graded race 2m 4f
  
Might be a high class race

But it is only a simple 0-129 
 
Ben Pauling won this last year
With an unexposed improver
Tries to do the same here

MEETMEBYTHESEA a 5yo
Has raced just 3 times so far
He also comes from a 2m race
  
Horses with under 5 runs
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-32 record in this
The following horses fail this

MEETMEBYTHESEA 
PESO
MALINIFICENT

Horses from 2m 2f or shorter
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-24 record in this
The following horses fail this

MEETMEBYTHESEA 
PESO
THE KEMBLE BREWERY

THE KEMBLE BREWERY a 6yo
Has topweight and 80 days off
The last 26 winners of this race
All ran in the previous 76 days
THE KEMBLE BREWERY doesnt

IT'S HARD TO KNOW off 70 days
Given that may have too much weight
KEPLERS LAW has raced 3 times
None like him had so much weight
LAURENS BAY is a not safe enough
Beaten 25 lengths n his latest start

GEORGE'S LAD is a 5yo
He has 4 runs and 11st 11lbs

Horses aged 5
Carrying 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-15 record so far
 
Horses aged 5
Under 6 career starts
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Also have a 0-15 record so far
GEORGE'S LAD fails both angles
May just have too much weight
 
Acceptable Profiles

BELLIANO has a chance
Not unlike last years winner

3 horses with similar profiles
Also come out like winners

NOT SO WOOLLY
ELYSIAN KNIGHT
SILVER THORN

None of the negatives
Are completely convincing
Statistics just feel too tight
Bound up like a coiled sping

BELLIANO most likely winner
But he is on the short side 5/1

With 5 places available

Would rather go this way

Selection

£2.50 Each Way ELYSIAN KNIGHT 16/1-18/1

£2.50 Each Way NOT SO WOOLLY 16/1-18/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







 
Gowran Park 2.10

13/8 Grimaud, 3/1 Captain Ryan Matt, 7/1 Imarajan
7/1 Sixtripleeight, 12/1 Fierce Handay, 14/1 I Feel Fine
16/1 Can Happen, Tackletommywoowoo, 20/1 Harpy Eagle
20/1 Zuzukel, 28/1 Glendower, 33/1 Bop Wont Stop
50/1 Welcome Aboard, 66/1 Killala Bay, Pension Plan
66/1 Siege Ofjadotville, Union Alley, 125/1 Sparrow Wings
150/1 Nobody, 150/1 Tippinaway

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Market suggests a match

GRIMAUD v CAPTAIN RYAN MATT

Hard to disagree with that
IMARAJAN is only a 4yo
With just 1 run in 142 days
Plenty to find on ratings too
Plenty of others look beatable

GRIMAUD sets the standard

Maybe able to upgrade last time
Trying to stay 2m 4f on soft ground
Sires record was not encouraging
With horses as inexperienced

CAPTAIN RYAN MATT a 5yo
Has had 2 hurdle runs so far
On numbers he is right there
But 25/1 last time puts me off
Coming from a major stable

Should go well no negative

GRIMAUD may be too streetwise

Selection

GRIMAUD 11/10-5/4

Win Bet





  
Sandown 2.25

11/2 Bo Zenith, 13/2 Go Dante, 7/1 Lump Sum
7/1 Spirits Bay, 8/1 Batman Girac, 10/1 Afadil
10/1 Ooh Betty, Wreckless Eric, 12/1 Knickerbockerglory
12/1 To Chase A Dream, 14/1 King William Rufus,
14/1 Sorceleur 16/1 We're Red And Blue, 20/1 Big Ginge
25/1 Hardy Du Seuil, 25/1 Tintintin, 40/1 Tapley

Imperial Cup 

2m Handicap Hurdle

Horses rated 0-147

LUMP SUM is topweight
Tough race to carry 12st

Horses with 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-55 record since 2004
 
Horses aged 6 or older
Carrying 11st 6lbs or more
Have a poor 0-55 record
The following horses fail this

LUMP SUM
KNICKERBLOCKERGLORY

GO DANTE won this last year
This year not in as good form
He is also 9 years old now

The last 9yo winner
Was way back in 2004
He (Sconced) was unexposed
Lightly raced with less weight
Opposing all these 9 year olds

GO DANTE
KNICKERBLOCKERGLORY
 
Horses with 3-12 hurdle races
Won 13 of the last 15 renewals 

Horses with over 12 hurdle runs
Have a poor 2-96 record in this

Those aged 7 or younger 
With over 12 hurdle runs are 0-54
The following horses fail this

AFALDIL
TINTINTIN
OOH BETTY

Those absent over 30 days
With over 12 hurdle runs are 0-35
The following horses fail this

AFALDIL
OOH BETTY

Those with 10st 6lbs or more
With over 12 hurdle runs are 0-61
The following horses fail this

GO DANTE
OOH BETTY

Horses with over 12 hurdles
Beaten 7+ lengths last time are 0-53
The following horses fail this

KING WILLIAM RUFUS
GO DANTE
TINTINTIN
TAPLEY
 
Recent winners of this race
Had the following runs that year
3 1 6 3 3 4 8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8

Horses aged 6 or older
With over 4 career races
Having under 3 runs that season
Have a 0-39 record in this race
HARDY DU SEUIL fails this
He looks underraced this year

Horses aged 5 or more
More than 5 career runs
Absent over 36 days
Carrying 10st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-61 record in this
The following horses fail this

HARDY DU SEUIL 
OOH BETTY
TO CHASE A DREAM

TO CHASE A DREAM only just fails
But he is not the biggest of horses
To be fair he's won at Cheltenham

Since the 2009 renewal
Horses from Novice or Maidens
Have a 0-49 record in this handicap

BIG GINGE has this problem 
WERE RED AND BLUE does
  
SPIRITS BAY is a 7 year old
Borderline profile statistically
He has a 49 day absence
Bit more than any 7yo winner
Would not want more weight
But can turn a blind eye to it
But not ideal from a grade 2
Only 1 past winner managed it

BO ZENITH is a 5 year old
He fails a couple of angles
But only just fails marginally
From a top stable forgiveable
 
BATMAN GIRAC is a 5yo
He has a tough weight 11st 4lbs
Most 5yo winners with big weights
Were lighter raced than he is
But close enough to shortlist
 
WRECKLESS ERIC is a 5yo
Lightly raced and 7 weeks off
With a light weight shortlistable
    
SORCELEUR ran 7 days ago
Beaten too far in a lower grade ?

Possibly but he was badly ridden
And he was eased considerably 
Has a very light weight to help him

More optimistic than confident  

But if he runs to his best figures

He has every chance of a place

And if so he could also win

Selection 

£2.50 Each Way SORCELEUR 14/1-16/1

£2.50 Each Way TO CHASE A DREAM 20/1-18/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Wolverhampton 2.45

7/2 Kingdom Come, 11/2 Great Chieftain, 6/1 Symbol Of Light
7/1 Final Voyage, Whip Cracker, 8/1 Local Hero, 12/1 Farasi Lane
12/1 Zoffandia, 14/1 Two Tempting 16/1 Bajan Bandit, 25/1 Tolstoy
33/1 Silent Age
 
8f Handicap

Lincoln Trial

KINGDOM COME is topweight
Wont find that easy to overcome
Horses with 9st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-32 record since 1999
He did win the race last season
But with 2 prep runs and 8 days off
Now he faces 86 days absence


Go back to 2001 
January to May
8f handicaps
Class 2 races
Both turf and sand
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 31 days
Carrying 9st 10lbs or more
Return a 0-30 record
KINGDOM COME fails this


There are some draw issues 

Go back to 2008
Wolverhampton 8f races
In Class 3 and higher
Horses drawn 12 or more
Have a 0-29 record in them
FINAL VOYAGE fails drawn 13 
  
If you go back 26 years
Only 3 seasonal debutants won
They had a poor 3-65 record
GREAT CHIEFTMAN is another
Happy to ignore  on a draw stat

Go back to 1997
Wolverhampton 8f races
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent over 148 days
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-53 record in them
GREAT CHIEFTMAN fails this

TWO TEMPTING is rejected
Exposed 6yo racing first time out
Looking high in the handicap
 
WHIP CRACKER is a 4yo 
Fancied seasonal debutant
Nice prospect for the season

26 past renewals
Show seasonal debutants
With 9st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-31 record in them 
WHIP CRACKER has this profile

Horses aged 4
Over 3 career runs
Absent more than 126 days
Have a 0-29 record in this
The following both fail this

WHIP CRACKER
GREAT CHIEFTMAN 

SILENT AGE looks beatable

BAJAN BANDIT won last time
But going up 2 grades in class 
Cound find an exposed 5yo out

ZOFFANDIA is a 4 year old
He only has 4 career starts

Horses aged 4
Under 6 runs
Have a 1-9 record
So it has been done
Not sure I'd want stall 1 

Horses drawn 1
Are 0-26 in 26 renewals
ZOFFANDIA fails this angle

Go back to 1997
Wolverhampton 8f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
With 8 or more runners 
Horses aged 4
Under 6 career runs
Drawn 1
Have a weak 1-36 record
That came in an Apprentice race
ZOFFANDIA is risky drawn one

FARASI LANE is a 7yo
Not the best age for this

Ran over 7f this season
Looked at horses doing that
Noe won with 1 run that year (0-5)

Horses aged 6 or older
Coming from 7f this year
Have a 0-37 record in this
FARASI LANE has this profile
He's never won in this class

LOCAL HERO

Unexposed 4yo
Has a recent run this year
Felt my angles support him

SYMBOL OF LIGHT has 9st 11lbs
Thats more than any past winner
But not by much and forgiving him

His draw in stall 10

Should be fine after a non runner

He hacked up last time

May have been a grade lower

But he did it at Southwell
When drawn 12 or 12
Winning easily 3 lengths
In a career best figure

Had excuses before that
He was on the bounce at Newcastle

Think one of two should win


Selection

£4.25 Each Way SYMBOL OF LIGHT 7/1-15/2

£1.50 Win Bet LOCAL HERO 5/1-11/2
 
1/4 Odds

1-2-3-4








Wolverhampton 3.20

15/8 Jabaara, 4/1 Al Shabab Storm
9/2 Fair Angellica, 6/1 Witch Hunter, 8/1 Willem Twee
10/1 Royal Zabeel, 12/1 Golden Mind.

Lady Wulfruna Stakes

Listed race 7f

Several known unknowns

About fitness and progress

AL SHABAB STORM top rated
Would not be the first choice

Past renewals show
Horses aged 4
Over 10 career starts
Absent over 7 days
Have a 0-29 record in this

AL SHABAB STORM fails

His sire's record is poor
Over this far in high grades
When facing an absence

Have to make assumptions
WILLEM TWEE may need this
Hard to rely on his trainers

WITCH HUNTER could win
But he comes here on the bounce

FAIR ANGELICA is a 4yo filly
None have won with absences
 
JABARA is a 4yo filly
Sexy type could outclass these
But no filly has yet won off a break

Going to make her the saver
In a split stake with the 2 fittest

ROYAL ZABEEL
GOLDEN MIND
 
Selection
  
£6.00 Win Bet ROYAL ZABEEL 5/1-11/2

£3.00 Win Bet JABARA 2/1

£1.00 Win Bet GOLDEN MIND 16/1







Sandown 3.35

5/2 Dreaming Blue, 11/4 Hoe Joly Smoke
5/1 Excello, Goshen, Java Point, 10/1 Hubrisko

Handicap Chase 3m

Horses rated 0-137

GOSHEN is a 9 year old

Enigmatic hurdler

He's now had 4 chase runs

No idea what makes him tick
But his record in small fields
Suggest that may be crucial

The way I look at this

If we can get EXCELLO beaten
His last chase was a year ago
And his last 2 runs were poor

GOSHEN then rated 137

Only faces a 0-128 class field

In a small field
He is surely better than 0-128

DREAMING BLUE might win
Sired by Showcasing over 3m
Would not be a big selling point
JAVA POINT likes small fields
But a 10yo and pulled up last time

HOLY JOLY SMOKE is a danger

HUBRISKO is a cheap saver
 
GOSHEN is given a chance
Just because he looks well placed

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet GOSHEN 3/1

£1.00 Win Bet HUBRISKO 8/1-9/1









Hereford 3.45

2/1 Langley Hundred, 2/1 Yes Day
9/2 Gris Majeur, 11/2 Micro Millions
7/1 House Of Stories.

Novices' Handicap Chase 3m 1f

YES DAY is topweight

Rated 116

3rd at Market Rasen last time
Met horses rated much higher
With the following official ratings

121 113 111 114 120 118

Today he faces a 0-109 field

LANGLEY HUNDRED a danger
But he is  much more exposed 
Has a couple of months absence
HOUSE OF STORIES a 9yo
Has ran once badly in a year
GRIS MAJEUR pulled up last time
 
MICRO MILLIONS has a chance
He could be an optional saver

YES DAY may outclass these

Annoying he has shortened 

Selection

YES DAY 11/10

Win Bet








Wolverhampton 3.55

13/8 Miami Matrix, 5/2 Honved, 100/30 Fearnot,
8/1 Art Of Fox, 10/1 Arizona Rock, 25/1 Crackamour
50/1 Fighting Queen, 66/1 It's Tim.

3yo Novice 7f

MIAMI MATRIX has 2 runs

Sets the standard so far

Has a penalty to overcome

But would rather take him
Over his unraced dangers
Some of them from stables
And from sires as well
You would not be convinced
Would deliver on debut at 7f

All 5 past winners of this
Had previous experience
With 4 1 2 2 1 career runs

Would not see him as a banker
Or see him as outstanding value
But he should go very close 
ARIZONA ROCK is a cheap saver 
A few lengths behind him on debut

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet MIAMI MATRIX 6/4

£1.00 Win Bet ARIZONA ROCK 11/1-10/1

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