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Today's Best Bet
 
Huntingdon 3.15 

BETTY'S TIARA 11/4-5/2

Win Bet







Final Deliberations 

Later message than normal
Because of a medical thing
That I mentioned yesterday

Quite a heavy message too
First proper one of the week

Some of it is too speculative
Small stake playful previews

But there are confident bets

The last 3 previews

Offer the strongest selections 
Might not work out that way
But felt these were the best


 
No doubt about my best bet

 
Huntingdon 3.15 

BETTY'S TIARA 11/4-5/2

Win Bet

One of my personal bet hates
With bets and prices like this
I see them as each way bets
I think some horses at 7/4-3/1
Are far better each way bets
I have backed him each way
And taken 11/4 with Bet365

Not everyone agrees though
Some members are very skilled
Have decades of experience

We all have to enjoy the game
Our own stakes determine this
Mine in this case is each way
Happy to suggest him win only
Can only fear one of her rivals
And she fails a generic statistic





Preview Selections

Huntingdon 1.45
£6.00 Win Bet Not So Sobers 11/4-3/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Wotter Trotter 6/4
  
Huntingdon 2.15 
£5.00 Win Bet Kankin 5/1-11/2
£3.00 Win Bet Stardhem 5/2 
£2.00 Win Bet J'Habite En France 9/2

Punchestown 2.25
£8.00 Win Bet Will Do 11/2-6/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ask Anything 8/1-15/2
£1.00 Win Bet Spanish Harlem 8/1

Huntingdon 2.45 
£5.00 Win Bet Tigerbythetail 9/1 
£5.00 Win Bet Aquila Sky 8/1

Punchestown 2.55
C'Est Ta Chance 7/2-100/30
Each Way
1/4 Odds (1-2)

Huntingdon 3.15
Betty's Tiara 11/4 
Win Bet
 
Newcastle 5.30 
£8.50 Win Bet Beneficiary 11/4-5/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Show Me Show Me 9/2-5/1
 
Newcastle 7.30
Tasever 7/4-13/8
Win Bet





Yesterday's Summary
  
Covered only the 3 previews
But we managed two winners
Including the days favourite bet
Calimystic was a great opening
Beating the odds on favourite
My statistics get all the credit
Preview was so underwhelming 
If I was married to my statistics
We would have rowed last night
They would have accused me
Of not fully supporting the horse
And damming it by faint praise
Forced to be sleeping on a sofa
Probably white I had my doubts
The Hardest Geezer was beat 
Smasher made it a decent day
Holding on in the final preview

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Huntingdon 1.45

15/8 Timetoshine, 2/1 Wotter Trotter, 5/1 Guchen
11/2 Not So Sobers, 6/1 Carlton, 40/1 George Darling
40/1 Kaboul Manhattan, Maggies Boy, 66/1 Slemish
66/1 You And Whose Army, 100/1 Lady Fortune
100/1 Rocks Up Late.
 
Maiden Hurdle 2m

Looks between 4-5 runner

TIMETOSHINE a 5yo

Decent horse on the flat
Has his hurdling debut here
Nicky Henderson trains him
So no surprise if he wins it
But his type are not strong

Go back to 2007
February 
Maiden hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
No national hunt form
Coming from the flat
Return a 0-59 record
TIMETOSHINE has this profile

Going to oppose him
With one of 3 alternatives

NOT SO SOBERS
Was the marginal choice of these

He is a year older than his rivals
Has a bit more experience as well

I like him each way around 11/4-3/1
But that's not an easy bet to get on

So going win bet and saver bet
Have to guess the saver from 2
Wotter Trotter got that decision

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet NOT SO SOBERS 11/4-3/1

£4.00 Win Bet WOTTER TROTTER 6/4

 
Huntingdon 2.15
 
5/2 Thank You Blue, 4/1 Pittsburg, 9/2 Stardhem
5/1 J'Habite En France, 6/1 Pescatorius, 13/2 Kankin
25/1 McGrath From Clune, 33/1 Berliet Express
50/1 Bombay Sunset.

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Horses rated 0-100

THANK YOU BLUE is topweight

Combined with 148 days absence

Ran his profile it wasn't enticing

January to March
Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 7f or shorter
Class 4 or lower grade
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 15 career starts
But over 3 chase races
Absent more than 113 days
Carrying 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-31 record in them

The above is very messy
Just a dogs dinner of a profile
But the fact remains he fails it 
THANK YOU BLUE is rejected

None of the outsiders appeal
They are either underraced 
Or lack the class I would want

There are several options

None have done that much

STARDHEM is a 6yo

Having his chase debut

Doing that in a handicap

Ran his profile

February
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Class 4 or lower grade
Horses aged 6
Under 8 career runs
Having their chase debut
Running this season
Absent more than 6 weeks
Carrying under 12 stone
Return an excellent record

12 horses tried to win

5 of these won on debut

One horse with this profile
Was called Jamesieconn
He won only yesterday


STARDHEM is next to try

Best profile in the race
Best trainer in the race
Best backed horse as well

He is a bit short
Conceding experience

Going to make him a saver

Decided to split stake this
 
PITTSBURG doesn't appeal
Far more exposed than most

If I am right about the topweight

KANKIN rated 96

Only faces a 0-88 class race
 
JHABITE EN FRANCE rated 88
Could also be a saver bet as well

That gives us 3 horses
Who have horses rated 81 or lower

The big threat to this strategy
Would be 81 rated Pescatorius
On profile he is not a negative
But you can not bet them all

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet KANKIN 5/1-11/2

£3.00 Win Bet STARDHEM 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet JHABITE EN FRANCE 9/2



Punchestown 2.25

9/2 Velvet Elvis, 5/1 Will Do, 8/1 Ask Anything
8/1  Bushmans Pass, 8/1 Favori De Champdou
10/1 Cleatus Poolaw, 10/1 Kings Halo, 10/1 St Denis's Well
12/1 Fortunedefortunata, 14/1 Sphagnum, 16/1 Macdermott
16/1 Macs Charm, 16/1 Spanish Harlem, 16/1 Stormy Judge
16/1 Where It All Began, 25/1 Klarc Kent, 50/1 Beau Walking.

QuinnBet Grand National Trial
 
Handicap Chase 3m 3f

Listed Race

16 Renewals

Ran some breeding angles

How many sires in this race
Have bred winners over 3m 3f +
In this class on soft of heavy
Remarkably only two of them
The sires of these two horses

MACDERMOTT 
WHERE IT ALL BEGAN

Neither of them
Seem in a good place right now
  
Opposing a few of the others

SPHAGNUM the longest absence

Past winners
Had these runs since August
3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 5 3 4 4 2
All had 2 or more prep races

BUSHMANS PASS only has 1

KINGS HALO is a 10 year old
Happy to oppose going up a mile

STORMY JUDGE does the same

Go back to 2003
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 1f or more
Listed and Graded class
With over 8 runners
Horses aged 9 or more
More than 15 career runs
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Carrying 10st 3lbs or more
Have a horrible 1-187 record 
There is no typo in that stat
The only horse in 187 to win
Rule The World back in 2016
Winning the Grand National

The following both fail this
Albeit only failing by a whisker

KINGS HALO
STORMY JUDGE

FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU is fancied 
Has a breeding statistic to overcome

Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Running over 3m 2f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Return a 0-61 record so far

One will eventually go and win
But none have done before now

FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU fails this
 
VELVET ELVIS has 11st 12lbs

Horses with 11st 5bs or more
Have a 0-22 record in this race
Suggests weight is hard to defy
Quite short anyway around 9/2-5/1
His sires runners over 3m 4f or more
Have a poor 1-48 record so far

CLEATUS POOLAW is a 7yo
He has had just 3 chase races
But comes from a 2m 4f race
Not for me up a mile in distance

Several previous winners
Came from  the Thyestes chase
Which was run 28 days ago
But none of the winners that did
Were beaten over 23 lengths there
Several of these had heavier defeats

WILL DO beaten 31 lengths

SPANISH HARLEM beaten 33 lengths

MACS CHARM beaten 33 lengths

WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 90 lengths

WHERE IT ALL BEGAN a 9yo
Has not been running well enough
Could be a cheltenham prep run
 
FORTUNEDEFORTUNATA an 8yo
Has not jumped a fence in 9 months
Only had 3 chase runs before that
Might pop up but a lot to ask of him
And may not be the stable number 1

BEAU WALKING is very beatable
KLARK KENT is not running well 
  
ST DENIS'S WELL is a 7 year old
Far from certain to stay this distance
 
ASK FOR ANYTHING is a 7 year old
He last ran over a 2m 4f distance
Don't mind that from a hurdle race
But his last 2 races were in hurdles
Failed to complete his last 2 chases
Valid questions over his jumping 

WILL DO ran in the Thyestes
Beaten a bit further than ideal
But not too far to forgive him
And he was not knocked about 
If I am forgiving him that defeat
I should Spanish Harlem as well
He'd bring balance to the staking

Split staking this race

With two unexposed horses

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet WILL DO 11/2-6/1

£1.00 Win Bet ASK FOR ANYTHING 8/1-15/2

 £1.00 Win Bet SPANISH HARLEM 8/1

Huntingdon 2.45

2/1 Punxsutawney Phil, 7/2 Gustoso
4/1 Playtogetaway, 5/1 Jubilant, 8/1 Tigerbythetail
14/1 Aquila Sky.

Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f

Horses rated 0-122

Messy on many levels

Two of them pulled up last time

Two of them have months off

Two are going up 5f in distance

PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL is one
He won 7 days ago over 2m 4f

Horses doing this
Actually score very well

But none as old as him tried
None as exposed as him tried
I would see him a a neutral

TIGERBYTHETAIL a 9yo
Comes here after a good win

Market does not like him
But he has some momentum
And that can not be a negative
He makes the staking plan

So does the bottomweight

AQUILA SKY

He may be a 10 year old
But he is not too exposed

Runs off a career low mark

Back in 2021 as a 6 year old
He was rated as high as 126
Running in class 2 handicaps

He then had 770 days break
Came back Christmas 2023
Took him a few runs to get fit
By then he was sent chasing

His hurdles handicap mark
Dropped to 115 and then 105
Now he only races off 103

He is guaranteed to stay
Didn't run too badly last time

May be worth two small bets
On two of the outsiders in this

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet TIGERBYTHETAIL 9/1

£5.00 Win Bet AQUILA SKY 9/1


Punchestown 2.55

8/11 William Munny, 9/4 C'Est Ta Chance
5/1 Taponthego, 7/1 The Great Nudie
10/1 Disco Dancer 

Novice Hurdle

Listed race

5 runners

WILLIAM MUNNY at 8/11

Could easily be too short

Not sure why he should be
Little between him on figures
And the Willie Mullins danger
Yes he escapes any penalty
But penalties are a good sign
Rewards for achievements

Last time 2nd to a good horse
But it is not about who beats you
More who you finish ahead of

CEST TA CHANCE a 6yo
Has 2 hurdle runs like the favourite
Can not be much between them
At the prices prefer this selection

Selection

CEST TA CHANCE 7/2-100/30

Each Way

1/4 Odds (1-2)

Huntingdon 3.15

11/4 Betty's Tiara, 3/1 Sea Presenting
4/1 Diamonds Galore, 9/2 Smile Back
8/1 Pismo Beach, 10/1 Dramatic Encore 14/1 Hello Cello
20/1 Land Girl's Luck 33/1 Only Gossip, 50/1 Shorten Sassy
66/1 Rubymurree, 100/1 Astroscope 100/1 Fortune Dancer
100/1 Ramalamadingdong 200/1 Varinia.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Not many will be good enough

Number of hurdle runs

6 Betty's Tiara
2 Sea Presenting
2 Pismo Beach
0 Diamonds Galore
0 Smile Back
0 Dramatic Encore

BETTY'S TIARA

Has the most experience

She was 2nd last time out
SEA PRESENTING was 3rd
She was closing her down late

The market takes the view
SEA PRESENTING will beat her
Would not be too sure about that

DIAMONDS GALORE 3rd favourite
Nicky Henderson 5yo from a bumper

Go back to 2007
February
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses under 7
Coming from a bumper
Return a 0-57 record
 
Go back to 2009
January to March
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5
Coming from a bumper
Return a 0-60 record
The following horses fail this

DRAMATIC ENCORE
DIAMONDS GALORE

Staying with hurdling experience

PISMO BEACH has 2 hurdle runs
But she was quite a cheap horse
Raced just the once in 132 days
And is behind on the figures too

I see this as a match

SEA PRESENTING second choice

BETTY'S TIARA the first choice

This is interesting
 
Go back to 2007
January to June
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f or more
Horses aged 5
Coming from a hurdle
Under 5 lifetime starts
Running within 21 days
Return a 0-38 record

SEA PRESENTING fails this 

Go back to 2007
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f or more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 5
Coming from a hurdle
Under 3 lifetime starts
Running within 21 days
Return a 0-28 record 
SEA PRESENTING fails this

Selection

BETTY'S TIARA 11/4 

Win Bet

Newcastle 5.30

3/1 Sugar Baby, 4/1 Doddie's Impact
5/1 Beneficiary, 11/2 Show Me Show Me
6/1 Lady Nunthorpe, 7/1 Inanna, 10/1 Desert Master
14/1 Sixcor, 33/1 Howzak

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-64

The outsiders look weak
Underraced or out of form
LADY NUNTHORPE is unsafe
As a 4yo filly absent over a month

DODDIES IMPACT topweight
One of several with a chance
But he's ran once in 54 days
In the same period of time

SUGAR BABY ran 3 times

DESERT MASTER ran 5 times

SHOW ME SHOW ME ran 6 times

BENEFICIARY ran 6 times 

BENEFICIARY is interesting

His individual record

In January and February
Class 6 races
Fields of under 11 runners
Racing in the previous 17 days
He has a 5-9 record in them
Finishing W 2 W 2 2 W 3 W  
 
I was going each way

But he has shortened 

So it is a split stake bet


Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BENEFICIARY 11/4-5/2

£1.50 Win Bet SHOW ME SHOW ME 9/2-5/1



Newcastle 7.30

6/4 Mereside Madness, 11/4 Tasever
4/1 Havana Prince, 5/1 Streak Lightning
12/1 Bobby Joe Leg, 25/1 Bowman

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-70

Not many are easy to like

BOWMAN may lack the class

BOBBY JOE LEG is an 11yo
Comes here after a poor run

HAVANA PRINCE off 214 days

16 days ago

Over this course and distance

Three horses met each other

MERESIDE MADNESS won
TASEVER finished in second
STREAK LIGHTNING in 6th

 
MERESIDE MADNESS a 4yo
Won and has an obvious chance
But raced just once in 114 days
In the exact same period of time 

STREAK LIGHTNING ran 8 times

TASEVER has ran 10 races

On Racing Post Ratings
4 of his last 5 races
Were career best figures

Going with the fittest profile
Hoping he can reverse the form

Selection

TASEVER 7/4-13/8

Win Bet

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