11 Previews 
1 Account Bet 


 
Account Bet 

York 2.40

BERGERAC  10/1-9/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Final Deliberations
 
 
11 Previews

4 Chester
3 York
2 Haydock
1 Southwell
1 Listowel

Mixed feelings about today 
Clearly too many previews 

I'd probably pitch it between
Over ambitious + wreckless

Some of those are average
Wouldn't have made the cut
In a lot of Saturday messages
But there are some good bits

I would judge this message
On the strongest selections
Given in this first paragraph

One of the biggest problems
Non runners changing terms
And strangling my draw stats


Only 2 races

Tempted me for a staked bet


Chester 2.10

WITCH HUNTER 9/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




York 2.40

BERGERAC 10/1-9/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4



WITCH HUNTER

Has a good chester record
But the 3 times he ran here
He was quite slowly away
His jockey is 0-7 at Chester
Stall 2 could be an issue
If he does not get out fast
Still like him with 4 places



BERGERAC 

Seems to run all the time
He is handicapped to win
But his trainer runs 2 here
He is the bigger price of 2
Ryan Moore rides the other
So are we second choice ?
My angles say first choice


Account bets doing so well
Been 6 since the last loser
That record will go anytime

We may have to take a hit
As these are hard to split

BERGERAC got the decision

Blood will be spilled today

Lets hope it is not too much

So I can clean it up Sunday







Preview Selections


 
Haydock 1.13 
£4.50 Each Way Steel Tiger 8/1-9/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Lieber Power 8/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

York 1.30
£4.50 Each Way Rock Opera 9/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Wreck It Ryley 12/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Haydock 1.48 
£3.50 Each Way Pals Battalion 9/1-8/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Sergeant Wilko 14/1-16/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5
  
Chester 2.10
Witch Hunter 9/1 
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Listowel 2.30 
Dream Diamond 5/2 
Each Way

York 2.40 
Bergerac 10/1-9/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4
  
Chester 2.45 
Tricky Tel 11/8 
Win Bet

York 3.50 
£4.50 Each Way Sweet Fantastic 10/1-11/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Coul Angel  8/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 (6)

Chester 4.30
£4.25 Each Way Ziggy's Ariel 10/1
£1.50 Win Bet Glamour Show 13/2

Chester 5.05 
War Hawk 7/2-4/1 
Each Way

Southwell 6.25 
Hatysa 9/2-5/1 
Each Way









Yesterday's Summary


Covered 6 races yesterday
This ended up L P L L L W
Felt it was a mixed message
Jeux d'Eau 4/1 was a winner
An inspired hunter chase bet
Obviously the day's highlight
But we needed it at the time
Some of it was a bit unlucky
Other parts so badly staked
Billie Be Quick was unlucky
Should have won that easily
Would have in a few strides
But he was badly staked too
Not selecting him each way
Marioento ran well came 2nd
Should have been each way 
Said it at the start of the day
At the time I sent the message
He was only around 3/1-11/4
So decided to go for the win
One or two disappointments
Felt I made a mess of staking
Probably a little down overall
But very happy with my form 







PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


Haydock 1.13

7/2 Shader, 13/2 Fox Journey, 7/1 Kildare Legend
15/2 Steel Tiger, 8/1 Stressfree, 9/1 Albany
9/1 Lieber Power, 10/1 Naqeeb, 12/1 Galyx, 
18/1 Mustazeed, 20/1 Faylaq 22/1 King's Code
25/1 Prydwen, 40/1 Imperial Sovereign
50/1 Postileo.

12f Handicap

Horses rated 0-107

We have a sexy favourite

SHADER - John Gosden

Just 3 runs last season

A couple of observations
About his sire Shamardal

Horses sired by Shamardal
Running over 1m 4f and more
In Class 2 and higher
Absent more than 79 days
Have won a few races before

But in fields of 9 or more
All 37 that tried were beaten

When having under 7 runs
All 18 that tried were beaten

Thats not enough evidence
To make him a negative
But it raises some doubts

His profile is hard to read
The winners with his profile
Won in single figure fields

Go back to 1997
12f handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of the year
Both and sand
With over 9 runners
Horses aged 4
Under 4 career runs
Absent over 70 days
Return a 0-26 record
SHADER has this profile

It is only the big field
That he fails my angles
SHADER is not first choice

The draw could be relevant

Go back to 2002
Haydock
12f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or more
Over 15 career runs
Absent over 14 days
Drawn 9 or higher
Return a 0-97 record
The following all fail this

FAYLAQ
POSTILEO
PRYDWEN
FOX JOURNEY
STRESSFREE

May and June
Have 92 similar races
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-65 record in them
The following  fail this

FAYLAQ
POSTILEO
 
GALYX is weak on sire stats
Sired by Calyx I'd steer clear

MUSTAZEED fails statistics


ALBANY is an older mare
Going to oppose with an absence

KIILDARE LEGEND a 4yo
Lightly raced with 6 races
Only had 1 run this season
Can not rule him out here
He is weak in the market
If he had won last time out
He'd have a strong profile
But he was beaten 8 lengths

NAQEEB is a 5yo

Lot of weight
With just 1 run this season
But made him a negative last time
Capable of winning this at his best
But is he being aimed at the Ebor ?

LIEBER POWER is a 5yo

Like his profile 
Handicapped to win 
My only concern is stall 1

Some win but it can be an issue


STEEL TIGER could go well
Non runners do help his draw


Selection

£4.50 Each Way STEEL TIGER 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet LIEBER POWER 8/1
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4









York 1.30

7/1 Bona Fortuna, 8/1 Alfa Whiteburd, 9/1 Baba Reza
9/1 Byzantine Empress, 10/1 Rock Opera, Wen Moon
12/1 Danzan, Ingleby Archie, Ray Vonn, 14/1 Muscika
16/1 Dickieburd, 16/1 Wreck It Ryley, 20/1 Arnhem
20/1 Beale Street, Lucky Man, 20/1 True Promise
25/1 Hectic, 33/1 May Blossom, Thankuappreciate
50/1 Beyond Borders, Equiano Springs.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-78

Just 1 past renewal

No significant history

Lets get in and out fast

Opposing certain types

The highest of draws
Mainly takes out outsiders
WEN MOON is drawn 22
Would not want that high
 
Opposing older horses
Those aged 8 or older

ARNHEM
EQUIANO SPRINGS
MUSCIKA
DANZAN

Horses with long absences
May be best opposed as well

ALFA WHITEBURD
BONA FORTUNA
LUCKY MAN

Go back to 1997
Every York handicap (6f)
Horses absent over 110 days
Drawn in stall 13 or higher
Havce a 0-43 record so far
Two fancied horses fail this
 
ALFA WHITEBURD
BONA FORTUNA
 
INGLEBY ARCHIE is unsafe
As a 4yo coming from a 5f race

THANKYOUAPPRECIATE out
From a 5f with several weeks off

RAY VONN has had a prep run
But was beaten 21 lengths in it

BYZANTINE EMPRESS a 4yo filly
She has raced just once in months
Want a better profile in a big field

There are some lurkers

Who could be disruptive


WRECK IT RYLEY is one
His 3 runs this season
Include two career bests
And being stuck on the outside
When racing at Ripon last time

ROCK OPERA got the decision

More positives than most others
And there are 5-6 places as well

Selection

£4.50 Each Way ROCK OPERA 9/1-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet WRECK IT RYLEY 12/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5











Haydock 1.48

7/2 Fine Interview, 9/2 Durham Castle, 7/1 Trilby
10/1 King's Lynn, Sergeant Wilko, 11/1 Kodi Lion
11/1 Pals Battalion, Tinto, 12/1 Grant Wood, 12/1 Woven
14/1 Dakota Gold, 16/1 Sergeant Pep, 33/1 Arctic Thunder
33/1 Cajetan, 40/1 Bosh, Wodao, 50/1 Baldomero
 
6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-94

FINE INTERVIEW is a 4yo

Well thought of and backed

He has a strange 66 day break
Makes him difficult to read well
Letting my angles decide

Go back to 2002
May and June
6f handicaps
Class 2-3-4 races
With over 8 runners
Horses aged 4
Over 6 career runs
Just 1 run in several months
Absent more than 42 days
Carrying 8st 7lbs or more
Return a weak 1-66 record
FINE INTERVIEW has this profile
Going to try and get him beaten
 
Open handicap
But there is some deadwood

Opposing the older horses

DAKOTA GOLD
WOVEN
TINTO

KING'S LYNN is an 8yo
Nasty 66 day absence here
Does look well handicapped 
But in a field as big as this
His age and absence worry ,e

DURHAM CASTLE is a 4yo
He has 270 days off the track
Will stall 2 cause difficulties ?

Younger horses drawn low here
Have a poor record at this track

Go back to 2016
Haydock 6f handicaps
With over 9 runners
Horses under 5 years old
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-43
Drawn in stall 2 are 0-42
DURHAM CASTLE fails this

Go back to 1997
Haydock 6f handicaps
With over 8 runners
Horses under 5 years old
Absent more than 76 days
Drawn 1-2-3-4 are 0-57
DURHAM CASTLE fails this


KODI LION is a 4yo
He is drawn in stall 17 of 17
Personally I dislike that
But only 5 weeks ago
Bear Rock won here drawn 17-17

TRILBY is a 5 year old
Never won off his current mark
Never won in this class before
But he is not far away from it
He's had recent career bests
May need another in this race
But has valuable momentum

PALS BATTALION is a 4yo
Exposed but has a recent race
And my angles pass him as fine
 
SERGEANT WILKO is a 4yo
Not ruled out but off topweight
It may be asking a bit too much

Having said that

This is weaker than is last race

He went off too quickly there

Rated 94
He faces a 0-91 class field

If I can get the favourites beat


Fine Interview rated 91 
Durham Castle rated 89
Both have question marks

Then get a few more beat
Most of whom are outsiders
Could end up outclassing them
Just feel he is more of a win bet

Going to split stake this

Take a guess hope we are lucky

Selection

£3.50 Each Way  PALS BATTALION 9/1-8/1
 
£3.00 Win Bet  SERGEANT WILKO 14/1-16/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5
 
  






Chester 2.10

11/4 Never So Brave, 9/2 Telemark, 5/1 Bobby Bennu
7/1 Fair Point, 9/1 Myal, 10/1 Yanifer, 12/1 Witch Hunter
14/1 Cerulean Bay, 16/1 Holguin, 16/1  Rhoscolyn
20/1 Brewing, 25/1 Kingdom Come
50/1 Purest Time.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-105

NEVER SO BRAVE favourite
He has not raced in 239 days

Starting with 2 draw stats

Go back to 1999
Chester
7f handicaps
With over 6 runners
Horses under 5 years old
Absent over 195 days
Drawn in stall 5 or higher
Have a 0-59 record so far
The following both fail this

NEVER SO BRAVE
FAIR POINT

Go back to 1999
Chester
7f handicaps
With over 6 runners
Male horses of any age
Absent over 91 days
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Drawn in stall 5 or higher
Have a 0-49 record so far
NEVER SO BRAVE fails this
 
Going to oppose the above

BOBBY BENU is a 4yo
He nearly failed the draw stats
Drawn 8 on seasonal debut
Found him quite resistible

Others badly drawn
That fail other draw angles

YANIFER
MYAL

CERULEAN BAY may pop up
His wins and career best figures
Do come later on in the season
And stall 1 could be a curse

TELEMARK is a 4yo
Coming from a 6f race
With just 1 run this year
Is not really a prime profile

WITCH HUNTER

He has a lot of weight

But fit and running well

Opposed him on his last 2 runs

With many high weighted horses
Having long absences in this race
He could just be better than these

There are 4 places

He is a good price

Do not see a better option

Selection 

WITCH HUNTER 9/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4









Listowel 2.30

3/1 Dream Diamond, Wholelotofbusiness, 7/2 Sonnyboyliston
11/2 Complete Fiction, 13/2 Cabaret Prince, 10/1 Encosta
12/1 Marfa, 20/1 Jetaway Sheldon, 50/1 The Happy Huntsman
50/1Willuhaveamineral, 100/1 Boy Gin Go, Diamond Jimmy
10/1 Iceteem Flechois.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

SONNYBOYLISTON

Never ran over hurdles
But he is made favourite

Undertstandable
Given his flat race form

But his profile is weak

Go back to 2011
January to July
Maiden hurdles
Any distance
With over 7 runners
Horses aged 7 or more
Over 14 career runs
Just 1 run in months
Running within 70 days
Return a 1-179 Record
SONNYBOYLISTON fails this

The same sample of races

Show horses aged 8 or older
Over 18 lifetime races
Absent over 51 days
Have a weak 1-107 record
COMPLETE FICTION fails this

Shortlisting 2

DREAM DIAMOND

WHOLELOTOFBUSINESS

They met last time out

DREAM DIAMOND is preferred

Going with a dirty bet

Selection

DREAM DIAMOND 5/2

Each Way







York 2.40

4/1 Jm Jungle, 5/1 Duran, Loom, 7/1 Venture Capital
10/1 Bergerac, 10/1 Habooba, 10/1  Kodiac Thriller
14/1 Jumbeau, 14/1 Zayer, 16/1 Bond Chairman
16/1 It Just Takes Time, 16/1 Miss Attitude
25/1 Spirit Of Applause.

5f Handicap

17 Past renewals

They suggest we avoid
Horses without recent runs
Happy to reject these three

JUMBEAU
HABOOBA
BOND CHAIRMAN

Go back to 2009
March to May
Class 2 handicaps
Any distance
Mares aged 5 or older
More than 15 career runs
Absent over 28 days
Return a poor 1-39 record
The following all fail this
JUMBEAU
HABOOBA
MISS ATTITUDE

Long history to this handicap

Not been a good race for 4yo's

Go back to 1997
May and June
York 5f handicaps
Any class of race 
Male horses aged 4
Under 18 career starts
Have a 1-157 record
The following all fail this

DURAN
VENTURE CAPITAL
KODIAC THRILLER

Go back to 2005
5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Over 10 runners
Any time of year
Run on any track
Horses aged 4
Absent over 33 days
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Return a poor 1-87 record
VENTURE CAPITAL fails this
Only just but he does fail it

Go back to 1997 
York 5f handicaps
Any class of race 
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Absent over 24 days
Running off 93 of higher
Have a 0-44 record
ZAYER would be the first

SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE is out
He's cut adrift in the weights
IT TAKES TIME looks unsafe
As a 7yo down from 7f to 5f
  
This is quite interesting
 York 5f handicaps
Any class of race 
Any time of year
Open to all aged horses

Male 3 year olds
With under 8 career starts
Have never won any of them
All 43 that tried were beaten
When taking on older horses 
The following all fail this

ZAYER 
LOOM

If the above angles work out

It shortlists these 2 horses

JM JUNGLE rated 96
  
BERGERAC rated 87

JM JUNGLE could outclass these 

Equally he does have topweight

He is on a career high mark too

This could be interesting

Go back to 1997
York 5f handicaps
With under 15 runners
Horses aged 5 or older
Over 12 career starts
Absent more than 6 days
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Return a 0-66 record
JM JUNGLE fails this drawn 10

Other horses that also fail

IT TAKES TIME
HABOOBA

Not sure how trustworthy
That draw stat is likely to be
Surprised me in a 13 runner race
  
BERGERAC is well treated
If one of two of the above stats
Not least the 4yo one works
He could be very overpriced

Selection
 
BERGERAC  10/1-9/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Chester 2.45

6/4 Tricky Tel, 9/4 Come On Over, 6/1 Goldenstateofmind
7/1 Going Commando, 9/1 Ahead Of Fashion, 16/1 Full Gas
20/1 Call Me By My Name, 66/1 Malinga The Slinga.

2yo Novice 6f

TRICKY TEL

Won a maiden here on debut
Whilst he has a penalty for it
A Racing Post Rating of 89
Sets a pretty good standard

COME ON OVER is unraced

Cost plenty clearly talented

Can he overcome inexperience

Not sure if this is significant

Go back to 1997
Chester
2yo Novices over 6f
Any time of year
Unraced horses
Have a 3-38 record

In fields of 7 or more
They have a 1-25 record

In fields of 8 or more
They have a 0-20 record

As I type there are 8 runners

I'd rather have experience

GOING COMMANDO has 2 runs
Had a bad draw at York last time
But he was a 200/1 chance there
That does put me off him a little

AHEAD OF FASHION has 3 runs
But he only cost 1500 Guineas

TRICKY TEL is preferred
But he is drawn 7 of 8
So not a race for big stakes

Selection

TRICKY TEL 11/8

Win Bet







York 3.50

4/1 White Crown Star, 8/1 Cairdeas, 8/1 Hunky Dory
8/1 Sweet Fantastic, 9/1 Coul Angel, 10/1 Last Shamardal
12/1 Bear Kode, 12/1 Harswell Ruby, 12/1 Prosperitas
14/1 Singoura, 16/1 Art Design, 20/1 Frankies Dream
20/1 Party Bear, 20/1 Veydari, 22/1 Miss Collada
33/1 Diamont Katie, 33/1 Four Fifty, 33/1 Jamaican Storm
33/1 Kameel, Tuscan Point, 40/1 Georgecandoit
50/1 Jachin.

3yo Handicap 7f

Looks impossible

But a lot of deadwood in it
And a draw stat may help

Go back to 1997 
3yo handicaps at York 
Run over 7f
Any time of the year

Horses drawn 15 or higher
Return a 0-60 record in them

Several outsiders fail this
So do the following horses

HUNKY DORY is drawn 22
FRANKIES DREAM drawn 16

CAIRDEAS is drawn in 15
On the cusp but he still fails

WHITE CROWN STAR

He has topweight
Not keen on stall 1 either
Going to look elsewhere

The 3 past winners of this
Had 5 7 10 career races
Happy to oppose those
Who are quite inexperienced

FOUR FIFTY
SINGOURA

HARSWELL RUBY is a filly
Biggest problem with her
Bottomweight rated just 69
Lowest rated horse in this

PROSPERITAS could win
But just the 1 run this season
And 44 days off the track too
There are winners like him
But not in big fields like this
 
LAST SHAMARDAL has 5 runs
See no reason why he can't win

SWEET FANTASTIC can win
Plenty of weight to carry here
But a nice 5-6 place cushion 
 
COUL ANGEL up in distance
Has enough to be a saver bet

Selection

£4.50 Each Way SWEET FANTASTIC 10/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet COUL ANGEL 8/1
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5 (6)








Chester 4.30

100/30 Nazuki, 5/1 Sea Emily Run, 11/2 Glamour Show
7/1 Lady Of Andros, Seraphim Angel, 8/1 Mollie Foster
10/1 Toomuchforme, 14/1 Ziggy's Ariel 16/1 Eartha
20/1 Beauty Nation


Fillies Handicap 6f

Horses rated 0-85

6 past renewals

NAZUKI has 3 runs
Faces 53 days absence

Most winners of this
Had at least 6 career runs

Against the lighter raced

Horses from 5f
Have a 0-16 record in this
SERAPHIM ANGEL fails this
The only horse up in distance

Non runners complicate things

Just ran some basic profiles

Decided to split 2 horses

GLAMOUR SHOW a saver 

ZIGGYS ARIEL is chosen
With the most recent races

Selection

£4.25 Each Way ZIGGYS ARIEL 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet GLAMOUR SHOW 13/2






Chester 5.05

3/1 War Hawk, 9/2 Too Don Juan, 5/1 Wilhelmina
11/2 Magellan Cloud, 6/1 Kokanee, 10/1 Eupator
10/1 Kimeko Glory, 12/1 Premier, 25/1 Sir Paul Ramsey
33/1 Sovereign Applause

3yo Handicap 10f

Starting with a draw statistic

Mixed with number of runs

Go back to 1997
Chester 
10f Handicaps
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year
Any age group 
Horses with under 5 races
Drawn in stall 7 or higher
Return a 0-71 record

The following all fail this

WILHELMINA
TOO DON JUAN
SIR PAUL RAMSEY

A variation of that angle

Go back to 1997
Chester 
10f Handicaps
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year
Any age group 
Horses with under 6 races
Drawn in stall 7 or higher
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more 
Return a 0-55 record 
The following all fail this

WILHELMINA
TOO DON JUAN
SIR PAUL RAMSEY
MAGELLLAN CLOUD

SOVEREIGN APPLAUSE a filly
Rejected rated 64 with months off
PREMIER doesn't offer enough

EUPATOR has a chance
Could find the necessary improvement

KOKANEE is not ruled out
But a stable usually best avoided

KIMEKO GLORY won last time
But that was in 2 grades lower

WAR HAWK is topweight

Looks progressive

Down in class 

Well drawn

If he stays the extened 10f
He should be going close

Percentage bet
Rather than a bomb proof one

Selection

WAR HAWK 7/2-4/1

Each Way








Southwell 6.25

6/4 Understudy, 3/1 Coedana, 5/1 Hatysa
7/1 Bintnouf, 7/1  Luxmundi, 10/1 Luna Bay
20/1 Suite Antique, 40/1 Saxon Spirit
66/1 Victoria Concordia, 100/1 Armathia.

12f Novice (Fillies)

Lightly raced improvers

UNDERSTUDY one of them

Powerfull connections

Ran well on her debut

Best backed horse

What interests me about her
She is drawn lowest in stall 1 

As long as 10 horses race
That could hurt her chance

Go back to 2001
Southwell 12f races
With over 9 runners
Horses of any age
With under 10 career runs
Drawn in stall 1
Have a nasty 1-117 record
UNDERSTUDY will face this
If there is not a non runner

Going each way against her

BINTNOUF not first choice
LUNA BAY is unraced

COEDANA could be the one
But has not achieved much yet

HATYSA cost 7 times more
She has an obvious chance too

Selection

HATYSA 9/2-5/1

Each Way


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