6 Previews 
0 Account Bet 





Final Deliberations
 
  
Final day of this week

But no plans to break
Messages will carry on

Strange schedule today 
It feels cobbled together
 
Done no Irish previews 
Did not find much I liked

Done the French Derby
The Prix du Jockey Club
 
Covered one on the sand
So there is a bit of variety

But not pressing too hard 
Plenty of racing tomorrow
So going for a calmer day


6 Previews

Quite like the opener


Nottingham 1.55 

£8.50 Win Bet French Haven 3/1-100/30 

£1.50 Win Bet Pay Attention 5/1- 6/1
 
Had to switch my plans
Wanted to go each way
French Haven at 7/2-4/1
But prices have dried up
I am going to wait a bit
See if we get that later

Push me for the best bet

 
Chelmsford 4.45 

ROAD TO WEMBLEY 5/1-11/2

Each Way

Not sure how safe he is
But I really like his profile
And dislike his main rivals
We also get 1-2-3-4 places








Preview Selections

 
Nottingham 1.55 
£8.50 Win Bet French Haven 3/1-100/30 
£1.50 Win Bet Pay Attention 5/1- 6/1
 
Fakenham 2.30 
High Court Judge 7/4 
Win Bet
  
Chantilly 3.05 
Ridari 5/1-6/1 
Each Way

Nottingham 4.00
£6.50 Win Bet Nightbird 13/2-6/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Angel Shared 4/1
£1.50 Win Bet Nad Alshiba Green 5/1-11/2
 
Chelmsford 4.45 
Road To Wembley  5/1-9/2
Each Way

Nottingham 5.30
Havana Prince 11/2-5/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4








Yesterday's Summary

Longest message in a while
Results of the 11 previews
Were L P P L P P W P L W L

2 Winners
5 Placed
4 Losers

Finished behind on the day
But could have been worse
We were not badly beaten

If you staked £10 each race
You would have staked £110
Returns approximately £100
So just about a tenner behind

The account bet survived too
Bergerac finished 2nd at 10/1
Got beaten by a 28/1 outsider
Coming from the widest stall
Bergerec ran a decent race
But never looked like winning
And never looked like losing
Witch Hunter ran quite badly
Relieved I did not choose him
Always need a bit of good luck
That decision involved plenty
Some of the big priced horses
Ran really well at big prices
We'd have won if one had won
Overall we did finish up behind
Not by too much on a hard day
A message I didn't control well
So not too dissappointed with it









PROFILES & PREVIEWS 




Nottingham 1.55

7/2 French Haven, 9/2 Captain Cess, 5/1 Classic Cause
15/2 Kaleidoscope Eyes, 15/2 Pay Attention, 8/1 Yafaarr
10/1 Profit Rockit, 11/1 Zaraquelle, 12/1 Take The Boat
33/1 She's A Goldigger.

3yo Handicap (8f)

Horses rated 0-62

CAPTAIN CESS is favourite

From a small stable
With a modest profile
Not that drawn to him

Go back to 2010
May and June
3yo Handicaps (8f)
Class 6 races
Horses with under 5 runs
Having raced as a 3yo
But only once in months
Absent more than 22 days
Return a 0-66 record

The following horses fail this

CAPTAIN CESS
CLASSIC CAUSE

CLASSIC CAUSE is drawn 10/10

Go back to 2013
Nottingham 
8f handicaps
With under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10
Have a 0-33 record
CLASSIC CAUSE fails this

Opposing the above horses

YAFAARR is topweight
Has not done enough yer
KALEIDOSCOPE EYES rejected
Exposed filly with 82 days break
PROFIT ROCKET may need this

ZARAQUELLE is a filly
Ran her profile it was modest
May have too much weight

Shortlist

FRENCH HAVEN 3/1-100/30

PAY ATTENTION 5/1- 6/1
  
FRENCH HAVEN just preferred
Only needs to concede him 1lbs

Wanted to go each way
But the price has dried up

 
Selection

£8.50 Win Bet FRENCH HAVEN 3/1-100/30

£1.50 Win Bet PAY ATTENTION 5/1- 6/1









Fakenham 2.30

11/8 Howth, 6/4 High Court Judge
7/2 Alvesta, 16/1 Francesi

Novice Hurdle 2m

Small field

ALVESTA is a 4yo filly

She has an unbalanced profile

22 lifetime starts
3 hurdle races

January to September
Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Open to both sexes
Fillies aged 4
Over 14 career runs
Under 6 hurdle runs
From a non graded race
Have a 0-73 record in them
ALVESTA shares this profile

Strange angle
But her figures are weak
Would not have chosen her

HOWTH is a 6yo

Won on his hurdling debut

Every chance of winning
The market thinks he should
 
But he's had 30 career runs
Just 1 run in the last 234 days

HIGH COUNTY JUDGE in contrast 
Has far more momentum than him

He is a very exposed 5yo 
But also won last time out
And has been running all spring

HOWTH was the better flat horse
That's why he is a clear favourite
Might be why he wins the race

HIGH COUNTY JUDGE is chosen
On his fitness and momentum

Selection

HIGH COUNTY JUDGE 7/4

Win Bet








Chantilly 3.05

7/2 Camille Pissarro, 6/1 Ridari, 7/1 Cualificar
8/1 Bowmark, Detain, 10/1 Sinileo, 12/1 Luther
14/1 King Of Cities, 14/1 Nitoi, 20/1 Parachutiste
20/1 Trinity College, 33/1 Leffard, 33/1 Tipinso
40/1 Curragh Camp, 50/1 Al Aali, Azimpour
66/1 Frankly Good Cen, 100/1 Heybetli.
 
Prix du Jockey Club

The French Derby

Aidan has the favourite

CAMILLE PISSARO

Going to take him on here
As he has had 9 career runs
 
Past winners
Had the following career starts

2 3 5 6 5 4 3 6 6 3 7 4 11 2 5 
5 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 5 6 4 3 5 6 3
 
Only 1 previous winner
Raced more than 7 times  
CAMILLE PISSARO has 2 more

Also rejecting his 2nd string
TRINITY COLLEGE has 7 runs
Thats more than ideal as well
Ryan Moore has rejected him

Conventional wisdom says
Avoid the highest of draws 
Past winners stall numbers

3 8 2 2 2 3 5 6 1 7 
13 6 10 16 10 20 4 
4 5 7 13 10 4 11 2

You can win drawn high
But not many have done

LUTHER is high drawn 13
Several outsiders also fail

Past winners
Had the following runs
When they were 3 year olds

1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 
2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3
 
Only 2 past winners
Had raced once as 3 year olds
St Mark's Basilica did it in 2021
He'd just won the French 2000
And he was drawn ideally in 2
All his main dangers that year
Were drawn in stall 12 and higher#

Last years winner
Also had just 1 run as a 3yo
He only had 2 career starts

I'd against the horses
Who have raced once this year
The following horses fail this

SINELEO
KING OF CITIES

That leaves 4 horses

RIDARI
CUALIFICAR
BOWMARK
DETAIN

The Gosdens run 2

DETAIN can go well
May want faster ground
BOWMARK might win
But from an 8f Novice
Others have done more
 
CUALIFICAR is respected
But purely on numbers

RIDARI scores far better

Stall 11 will put a few off

But several have won high

If you go back a few years

And one is certainly overdue
 
Selection

RIDARI 5/1-6/1

Each Way









Nottingham 4.00

4/1 Tiva, 5/1 Elegant Erin, 5/1 Nad Alshiba Green
6/1 Angel Shared, 6/1 Jacquelina, 8/1 Galaxy Zoo
8/1 Nightbird, 10/1 Grace Angel, 14/1 Smooth Silesie.

5f Fillies Handicap

Horses rated 0-82

GRACE ANGEL is topweight

She has 10st 4lbs weight
Faces 46 days off the track
 
Go back to 2007
Fillies handicaps (5f)
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent over 16 days
Carrying 9st 12lbs or more
Return a 0-20 record
The following horses fail this

GRACE ANGEL
ELEGANT ERIN
 
ELEGANT ERIN is an 8yo

Don't get many her age
Winning 5f fillies handicaps

Go back to 2007
Fillies handicaps (5f)
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 7 days
Carrying 8st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record in them
ELEGANT ERIN fails this
 
Go back to 2007
Fillies handicaps 
Run over 5f and 6f
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 9 days
Carrying 8st 9lbs or more
Have a 1-69 record in them
ELEGANT ERIN fails this

TIVA is a 3yo
She has 3 career starts
The only winners like her
Had more runs that season
Her profile is a little too raw

SMOOTH SILESIE is a 4yo
She could be on the bounce
Every one of her rivals
Is rated at least 7lbs higher
She may not have the class

JACQUELINA is a 6 year old
She looks like coming into form
But having had 37 career runs
Never won off her current rating
Never won in this class before

GALAXY ZOO has a chance
Not a negative but not first choice

Shortlist

ANGEL SHARED 7/2-4/1

NAD ALSHIBA GREEN 5/1-11/2

NIGHTBIRD 11/2-6/1
  
ANGEL SHARED is a 4yo
Main complaint is 10st 4lbs
That is quite a lot of weight 
But she is dropping in class

NAD ALSHIBA GREEN a 3yo
Has had 10 career runs so far
With just a couple this season
I wanted less weigght for her 

NIGHTBIRD is up in class
Her figures suggest she can win

Split staking this one
 
Selection

£6.50 Win Bet NIGHTBIRD 13/2-6/1
 
£2.00 Win Bet ANGEL SHARED 4/1

£1.50 Win Bet NAD ALSHIBA GREEN 5/1-11/2









Chelmsford 4.45

4/1 Carlton, Kitty Furnival, 5/1 Road To Wembley
7/1 Trouville, 15/2 Surrey Fire, 9/1 Tailorman
11/1 Almudena, 14/1 Tipsy Tiger, 16/1 Artisan Dancer
16/1 Merrijig, 25/1 Jack McNamara, Wahraan.

Handicap 1m 6f

Horses rated 0-87

KITY FURNIVAL is topweight

Slightly surprised by that

Filly against males

Not raced in 34 days

Raced once in 163 days

Goes up inn distance too
With a double figure draw

Just out of interest
Since the track opened
Chelmsford 1m 6f races
Horses with over 4 runs
Racing once in 4 + months
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Return a 0-41 record
KITY FURNIVAL fails this

Several have absences
None of these looked safe

TROUVILLE
ALMUDENA
MERRIJIG

TAILORMAN is down 4f in trip
Would not be my first choice

SURREY FIVE is a 4yo
He's raced once in 232 days
Some 4yo's have won like him
But a stable that underperforms
And there are better options
 
CARLTON could go well

Decided to resist him though

He has had 32 career runs

But just 1 in the last 90 days

ROAD TO WEMBLEY a 4yo
Offers us a much fitter profile
And plenty of momentum too


Selection

ROAD TO WEMBLEY 5/1-11/2

Each Way








Nottingham 5.30

5/1 Havana Prince, 11/2 Diddy Man, 6/1 Phone Tag
6/1 Rising Force, 6/1 Sustained, 15/2 Dream Pirate
8/1 Charencey, 11/1 Siam Fox, 14/1 Drumstick
14/1  Kracking, 25/1 Cliffcake, 33/1 Intercessor
33/1 Power Of Zeus.

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-72

DIDDY MAN is a 4yo
Not well drawn 13 of 13

Go back to 2006
Nottingham
8f handicaps
Under 14 runners
Horses aged 4 or older
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a 0-31 record in them

Go back to 1997 
Horses aged 4 or older
Absent over 11 days
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a 0-28 record in them

DIDDY MAN fails this draw stat
PHONE TAG also fails it as well

Both horses won last time out
But are absent over a month since

Opposing a few with absences

CHARENCEY with 99 days off
INTERCESSOR has months off
POWER OF ZEUS off 86 days

CLIFFCAKE an exposed 7yo
Has not been running well enough

DRUMSTICK looks beatable

KRACKING running low figures

RISING FORCE is a 4yo
Very exposed with 31 career runs
Won last time on a rating of 55
Had 57 days off since that win
He is also going up in class
Rated 61 he is the lowest rated

Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Winning last time
Over 24 career starts
Have a 0-12 record
RISING FORCE fails with 31 runs

He's never won in this class (0-5)
Don't see why he should do that
When so exposed with 57 days off

DREAM PIRATE is a 5yo
He's ran once in 164 days
With 47 days off from his last run
There are safer and fitter profiles

SIAM FOX is a 7 year old
With just the 1 run since 2014
I'd prefer another run this year

SUSTAINED has a chance
Stall 1 is not the best of draws
Has to carry topweight as well
With just the 1 run this season

HAVANA PRINCE is a 4yo

Ran well 3 days ago at Ripon
When drawn in the widest stall
His previous run at Redcar
Was a career best on figures

Selection

HAVANA PRINCE 11/2-5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


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