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1 Account Bet 
  
 
Account Bet


Catterick 4.05 

BETWEENTHESTICKS 11/4-3/1

Win Bet 






Final Deliberations
 
Quite a heavy message
But it has lots of variety


10 Previews

4 Goodwood
2 Haydock
2 Curragh
2 Catterick

Looking for an account bet

Irish 2000 Guineas an option
 
Curragh 3.40  

£4.00 Win Bet RASHABAR 14/1

£5.00 Win Bet FIELD OF GOLD 1/1

£1.00 Win Bet HOTAZHELL 8/1 
 
Would not be the worst option
If some long term angles hold
Hard to see us losing our stake
Staking is clearly very messy
But feel it is a well crafted bet
As long as the race stats hold




Catterick 2.15

£6.00 Win Bet WONDROUS WAYS 3/1-11/4

£4.00 Win Bet HYPE MERCHANT 11/8-6/4

Comes out about a 11/8 bet
With money back on the fav
Don't see much against them




Goodwood 3.45 

LOUGHVILLE 9/1-10/1

Each Way

She started off as a negative
One of several in the race
But my first choice withdrawn
Changed the shape of the race
Coming round to him hard + fast
Have to turn a blind eye to things
Such as losing the 1-2-3-4 places
And she is a high drawn mare still
But I put her among my best bets



Catterick 4.05 

BETWEENTHESTICKS 11/4-3/1

Win Bet 
 
Was always my strongest bet
With one or two considerations

No safety net in a small field
The price shorter than usual

Came down to a choice

In the end I chose Catterick


Catterick 4.05 

BETWEENTHESTICKS 3/1

Win Bet 



 







Preview Selections

Goodwood 1.30
£8.00 Win Bet  Best Rate 9/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Silver Ghost 9/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Rare Change 11/1

Haydock 1.50 
£5.00 Win Bet Dixieland Blues 7/1 
£5.00 Place Bet King Casper 4/5
 
Goodwood 2.05
Opportunity 100/30
Each Way

Catterick 2.15
£6.00 Win Bet Wondrous Ways 3/1-11/4
£4.00 Win Bet Hype Merchant  6/4

Haydock 3.00 
£8.50 Win Bet  Symbol Of Honour 9/4 
£1.50 Win Bet  Big Mojo 5/1

Curragh 3.05
Lethal Levi 7/1 
Each Way

Curragh 3.40 
£4.00 Win Bet Rashabar 14/1 
£5.00 Win Bet Field Of Gold 1/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Hotazhell 8/1 
 
Goodwood 3.45  
Loughville 9/1-10/1
Each Way
 
Catterick 4.05 
Betweenthesticks 11/4-3/1 
Win Bet
 
Goodwood 4.55 
£7.00 Win Bet Ruby's Profit 3/1-11/4 
£3.00 Win Bet Carrados 5/2-11/4 





Yesterday's Summary

                              
Happy enough with yesterday
It finished up P L W P P L P
Had two loser free messages
So was expecting a step back
But it held up well in the end
Saved our stakes in 4 races
Almaty Star was one of them
Grabbing the 4th place at 12/1
Kensington Agent was another
Good saver as the main horse
Was suspiciously weak all day
Highlighted two of the races
Frost At Dawn one of them won 
The other bet finished 1st-2nd
Meydaan our main selection
Ran great lost out to our saver
So no damage done in the end
Happy to call a break level day








PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



  

Goodwood 1.30

13/2 Mr Chaplin, 13/2 Uncle Don, 7/1 Power Fizz
7/1  Rare Change, 8/1 Best Rate, 10/1 Cyclonite
10/1 Miss Nightfall, Tuco Salamanca, 12/1 Bob Mali
12/1 Brighton Boy, 12/1 Silver Ghost, 12/1 Yankee Dude
14/1 Principality, 20/1 Star Anthem, 33/1 Majestic Wave
 
3yo Handicap 7f

Horses rated 0-104

11 Past renewals

Opposing a few of these
 
STAR ANTHEM is  topweight
Profile may not be ready for that

Looking at the draw

Goodwood
7f Handicaps
Since 2014
Horses aged 2-3-4
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a 0-102 record 
The following all fail this 

POWER FIZZ is drawn in 16
Widest draw can't be ideal

BRIGHTON BOY is drawn 15
With 231 days off the track

MAJESTIC WAVE drawn 14
 
YANKEE DUDE is opposed
The least experienced horse 

MISS NIGHTFALL is a filly
First time out this season
Ignore her draw in stall 12
As there are two non runners
But she has 241 days off
If you look at her sires record
His only winners beyond 6f
Had runs within the last 7 weeks 
Could be asking too much of her
 
CYCOLNITE is up in distance
Stall 13 probably just about fine
But no guarantee he will stay

MR CHAPLAIN has 253 days off
He faces the inside draw as well

Go back to 2011
Goodwood
7f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
With over 8 runners
Horses absent over 33 days
Drawn in stall 1
Have a 0-26 record in them
MR CHAPLAIN fails this

PRINCIPALITY is unsafe
Just 1 run this year over 6f

Past renewals show
Horses with 1 run this year
Have a 0-39 record
The following all fail this

PRINCIPALITY 
STAR ANTHEM
UNCLE DON 

Go back to 2004
3yo Handicaps over 7f
Class 3 and higher
Any time of year
With over 8 runners
Horses with under 6 runs
Coming from 6f or shorter
Just 1 run in 12 weeks
Return a 0-59 record
UNCLE DON the next to try

TUCO SALAMANCA has 9 runs
He is coming up in distance
Coming up in class as well
That does not rule him out

BOB MALI is up in trip
Not guaranteed to stay

SILVER GHOST is a filly
She is coming up 2 grades
But she won with authority
   
BEST RATE has 6 runs
Account bet last time out
Each way 2nd lost a photo
This race is a grade higher

RARE CHANGE has 10 runs
Beat my account bet last time
 
Staying with the horses
Who ran over this trip last time
Like 13 of the last 16 winners

Could go each way

But have no firm preference

Split staking the profiles I like

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet  BEST RATE 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet SILVER GHOST 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet RARE CHANGE 11/1






Haydock 1.50

9/2 King Casper, 5/1 Teroomm, 7/1 Dixieland Blues
8/1 Fort George, 9/1 Afentiko, 10/1 City Of God
12/1 Sex On Fire, Thunder Wonder, Triple Double A
14/1 Bowen Island, 14/1 Humam, 16/1 Transparent
20/1 Our Mighty Mo ,20/1 Tilted Kilt.

Silver Bowl
 
8f Handicap

Not a good race for weight

Go back to 2008
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-32 record in this race

THUNDER WONDER fails this
Asking a lot to defy topweight

AFENTIKO also has topweight
He has the widest draw in stall 14
Not to mention 210 days absence

Past renewals since 2012
Show horses drawn 11 or more
Return a 0-24 record in them all
The following horses fail this

AFENTIKO
BOWEN ISLAND
TRIPLE DOUBLE A

CITY OF GOD is drawn 1
Not a significant advantage
Stall 1 won 1 of 27 renewals
Not keen on his 85 day break

26 of the past 27 winners
Ran within the last 6 weeks

Horses with over 3 runs
Absent over 34 days
Return a 0-37 record
The following horses fail this

CITY OF GOD
AFENTIKO

CITY OF GOD is rated 82

If you go back to 2004
Horses rated under 84
Have a 0-20 record 
These horses fail this

TRIPLE DOUBLE A rated 79
OUR NIGHT MO rated 82
BOWEN ISLAND rated 83

TILTED KILT drops in trip
Horses from 10f are weak

SEX ON FIRE has 13 runs
Two more than all past winners

HUMAN ran 15 days ago
I'd have liked a better run
But he is no way a negative
The 2013 and 2017 winners
Came from the same race

KING CASPER has 4 runs
Respected but 27 renewals show
Horses with under 6 runs
Just 1 run this season
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-15 record so far
So is 9st 6lbs a bit too much ?

TEROOMM a similar issue
No problem with just 3 runs
But horses with under 4 runs
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more 
Have a 0-11 record so far

Go back to 2008
Horses with 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-32 record in this race

TEROOMM fails this
KING CASPER does too

DIXIELAND BLUES has 3 runs
Has no strong profile concerns
But preferred a split stake bet
  
Selection

£5.00 Win Bet DIXIELAND BLUES 7/1

£5.00 Place Bet KING CASPER 4/5








Goodwood 2.05

2/1 Amiloc, 3/1 Opportunity, 3/1 Tycoon
8/1 Seaplane, Sir Dinadan, 12/1 Too Soon
16/1 Palazzo Blu, 33/1 Basalt.

Cocked Hat Stakes

Listed race 1m 3f

AMILOC has done the most

Top on figures shortest price

3 little niggles
None can rule him out
But will all 3 combined ?

No past winner
Ran over a mile of shorter

Secondly he is the only gelding

Third is his sires record
Sire has winners over 11f and more
But none came in this class of race

Not sure that enough to beat him
But there is a best profile to have
 
Horses with under 4 runs
Coming from 9f-10f-11f
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
  
TYCOON has this profile

OPPURTUNITY does too

Could split stake them
But with an 8 runner field
More inclined to choose
Go with an each way bet

Selection

OPPURTUNITY  100/30

Each Way


Catterick 2.15

 7/4 Hype Merchant, 3/1 Yellow Dream
100/30 Wondrous Ways, 6/1 Eye On The Prize
13/2 Unthinkable.

3yo Handicap 7f

Small messy field

Poor quality 0-54

YELLOW DREAM is topweight
Not done much after just 4 runs
Coming back after only 5 days 
Handicap debut last time out
Not easy draw wide at Carlisle
But he only beat one horse

EYE OF THE PRIZE a filly
Has ran just once in months
UNTHINKABLE scores low

Thought 2 horses stood out

WONDROUS WAYS
HYPE MERCHANT

The only pair in the race
That have profiles I'd like
In Catterick 7f handicaps

Do have a preference

WONDROUS WAYS a filly
But the only doubt about her
Missed the break last time
Have to hope it was a one off
Think 8f has stretched her 
At Redcar in her last 2 runs
Felt she ran well 2 runs ago

Only 2 places

Was tempted each way
But split staking this one

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet WONDROUS WAYS 3/1-11/4

£4.00 Win Bet HYPE MERCHANT  6/4







Haydock 3.00

3/1 Symbol Of Honour, 7/2 Big Mojo, 9/2 Arizona Blaze
5/1 Powerful Glory, 8/1 First Instinct, 9/1 Ain't Nobody
20/1 Arabian Dusk, Dash Dizzy, 25/1 Kullazain
33/1 Candy.

Sandy Lane Stakes 

3yo Group 2 (6f)

Don't have a strong view

SYMBOL OF HONOUR
Has the fittest profile here
Wanted him on the staking plan

Trying to get two beaten

POWERFUL GLORY is one
With a 245 day absence

His sires runners
Over 6f and further
Class 3 and higher grade
Absent over 39 days
Return a 0-37 record
POWERFUL GLORY fails this

ARIZONA BLAZE has 40 days off
Stall 1 could be a slight negative

Go back to 2004
Haydock 6f races
Class 3 and higher
With over 7 runners
Horses under 4 years old
Absent over a month
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-18
Drawn in stall 2 are 0-19
ARIZONA BLAZE fails this

Oneor two hard to read
That I cant fully dismiss

Going in this direction

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet  SYMBOL OF HONOUR 9/4

£1.50 Win Bet  BIG MOJO 5/1


My own personal preference
Symbol Of Hour each way 9/4
Will leave that one up to you






Curragh 3.05
 
2/1 Storm Boy, 5/1 Grand Grey,  5/1 My Mate Alfie
6/1 Iberian, 7/1 James's Delight, 10/1 Lethal Levi
12/1 Big Gossey, 20/1 Easy, 20/1 Vespertilio.

Greenlands Stakes

6f Group 2

Quality sprint

STORM BOY 2/1

Aidan

Does not sound too bullish

"He's going to improve a lot for the run" 
" A lot of stuff we don't know about him yet"

Sensible to ignore all that

But he is only a 3 year old

The last 3yo to win this
Was a long way back in 2003
And that was in a 5 runner race

Horses aged 3
Have a 0-16 record since

Rightly or wrongly
Going with an older horse
 
Past renewals show
 
No horses aged 4
Have won this from a 5f race
MY MATE ALFIE fails this
  
No horse from a 5f race
Won with just 1 run that season                     
MY MATE ALFIE fails this

Horses aged 4
With 1 run that season
Have a 0-12 record so far
The following share this profile

MY MATE ALFIE
IBERIAN
GRAND GREY

EASY is inexperienced

Not confident for some reason

JAMES DELIGHT is respected
Hard to read coming from France
As were 3 of his previous 5 runs

LETHAL LEVI is speedy

Avoids all my red flags

Hope she can perform

His first run on Ireland
 
Selection

LETHAL LEVI  7/1

Each Way







Curragh 3.40

4/5 Field Of Gold, 11/2 Cosmic Year, 8/1 Officer
9/1 Hotazhell, 14/1 Expanded, 20/1 Rashabar
20/1 Scorthy Champ, 33/1 Windlord
50/1 Comanche Brave.

Irish 2000 Guineas

9 runners

4 outsiders

FIELD OF GOLD

Ridden by a new jockey
Comes here for redemption
Having failed in the 2000g

Drawn 9 of 9 though

That may be the worst draw

May not stop him winning
But that has not helped him

Statistically
I am locked in here
Against his market dangers
 
Past winners of this race
Had the following Career runs

5 4 6 7 4 5 5
7 4 7 4 5 7 5
5 6 5 4 5 4 6 8 5

The last 23 winners 
Had at least 4 career runs 
No horse has won with fewer

COSMIC YEAR has 3 runs 
OFFICER also has 3 runs 
EXPANDED has 3 races
 
SCORTHY CHAMP rejected
Have him an unlikely stayer

Alternatives to the favourite

Are very thin on the ground
 
Feel it has to be a split stake
FIELD OF GOLD as a saver

HOTAZHELL  

May be a seasonal debutant
But it is not a vintage 2000g

He is a Group 1 winner
On Official ratings 
He is joint 2nd best

Only 4 runners under 20/1

We are saving on 2 Horses

RASHABAR

Can not be out of this

Ran well in the Greenham
 
Was said to need the run

Had the worst draw there
 
Failed a 20 year draw stat

  
Selection

£4.00 Win Bet RASHABAR 14/1

£5.00 Win Bet FIELD OF GOLD 1/1

£1.00 Win Bet HOTAZHELL 8/1 







Goodwood 3.45

2/1 French Master, 11/2 Master Builder, 7/1 Loughville
7/1 Steel Tiger, 8/1 Anzac Day, 8/1 Story Horse
9/1 Ocean Of Dreams, 12/1 Dancing In Paris
20/1 All In You, 20/1 Miller Spirit, 33/1 Bluegrass
50/1 Torcello.

Handicap 1m 6f

Class 2 race

LOUGHVILLE is topweight
Runs from the widest draw too
That combination is a concern

Interested in 3 things

1) FRENCH MASTER fails a generic

2)) MASTER BUILDERS a 0-159 profile

3) DANCING IN PARIS's stamina

 
Go back to 1999
Handicaps over 1m 6f
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Over 5 career runs
From 1m 4f or shorter
Absent more than 22 days
Return a 0-159 record
MASTER BUILDER has this profile

DANCING IN PARIS
Has to prove him stamina
His sire has had 1m 6f winners
But in lower grade races

His runners in Class 2 or higher
Running over only a mile or more
Return a 0-27 record so far
There is stamina in the pedigree
He has a couple of fair 2m races
So not calling him a non stayer
But not going to select him either

ANZAC DAY is resistible
coming up from a 10f race

FRENCH MASTER

Looks a Gosden improver

Could make him a saver
But he fails a generic stat

Go back to 1997
Handicaps over 1m 6f
Class 3 and higher grade
Any time of the year
Horses aged 4
Under 5 career runs
Just 1 race in 3 months
Coming from 12f or shorter
Running within 85 days
Return a 0-34 record in them
FRENCH MASTER fails this
ANZAC DAY Fails this as well
 
STEEL TIGER the selection

Past renewals show

Horses aged 4
Just 1 run this season
Coming from 12f races
Running within 2 weeks
Return a W W record
Winning in 2009 2013
STEEL TIGER a match
  
STEEL TIGER is a non runner

Was going to select him

Has to be a replacement

The non runners

Has to help the topweight

Not least from a draw perspective

LOUGHVILLE is rated 99

If we can get these beaten

Bluegrass 80/1
Miller Spirit 40/1
Master Builder fails a 0-159 stat
French Master fails a generic stat
All in You 28/1

LOUGHVILLE would then

Only face a 0-88 class field

And could well outclass them


Selection
 
LOUGHVILLE 9/1-10/1

Each Way







Catterick 4.05

100/30 Betweenthesticks,7/2 Match Play
4/1 Without Flaw, 9/2 Dandy Fitz, 5/1 Irish Dancer,
11/1 Mrs Bagerran
 
5f Handicap

Not that much to say here

BETWEENTHESTICKS

Topweight rated 65

Faces only a 0-59 class field

DANDY FITZ highest rated danger
Has not raced in 240 days now

WITHOUT FLAW is a 4yo filly

May and June
Catterick 6f races
Class 6 races
Fillies naged 4
Have a 0-37 record
WITHOUT FLAW next to try

The topweight looks well placed
 
BETWEENTHESTICKS's last run
Was a good 4th in  a higher grade

He met horses with these ratings

76 68 74 66 73 74 63

He only faces a 0-59 field today

All his 5 career wins
Came with short absences
Running within 15 days
BETWEENTHESTICKS is a fit
May be too strong for these

MATCH PLAY is the danger



Selection

BETWEENTHESTICKS 11/4-3/1

Win Bet





Goodwood 4.55

3/1 Carrados, 5/1 Ruby's Profit, 6/1 Miss Show Down
7/1 Xanthe, 12/1 Naana's Sparkle, 14/1 Cressida Wildes
14/1 Mademoiselle, 14/1 Star Chorus, 16/1 Captain Kinsella
33/1 Desdemona.

5f Handicap

3 year olds rated 0-87

Starting with a generic

Go back to 1997
Goodwood
5f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Horses absent over 127 days
Carrying 9st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-42 record in them
The following horses fail this

XANTHE
MADEMOISELLE
DESDEMONA
 
Go back to 1997
Goodwood
5f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
No 3yo has won
With under 3 career runs
XANTHE has this challenge
 
Go back to 2011
Goodwood
5f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Horses with under 6 runs
Absent more than 9 days
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Produce a 0-26 record
The following all fail this

DESDEMONA
NAANA'S SPARKLE
CARRADOS

CRESSIDA WILDES is unsafe
Easily the most exposed horse
Drawn higher than past winners
CAPTAIN KINSELLA likewise

MISS SHOW DOWN a filly
Hard to trust with 252 days off


STAR CHORUS has a chance
But one of the lower rated here
And just the 1 run in 121 days


CARRADOS fails a draw stat
But a non runner has helped

RUBYS PROFIT

Just ran 2 career bests

Torn between 2 options

Option 1

Rubys Proft win bet 4/1
Carados place bet 4/5

Option 2
Rubys Proft 4/1
Each Way

My head is telling me

Option 1 is the right bet

But messy hard to get on

And the price is now spoiled


Going in a different direction

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet RUBYS PROFIT 3/1-11/4

£3.00 Win Bet CARRADOS 5/2-11/4 

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