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Final Deliberations
 
Half way through the weekend

Results have gone well so far

Not a lot of choice this Sunday
Lots of small national hunt fields
So going to back off a bit today

Bank Holiday has more choice
Plenty of bigger fields tomorrow
Would like another account bet

7 Previews
4 Curragh
2 Fontwell
1 Uttoxeter

No a very ambitious message 
Plenty of short prices as well 
We should hit some winners
But as a message it is limited

My best bet

Runs in the Irish Guineas


Curragh 3.40

LADY VICTORIA 10/11-1/1 

Win Bet


Not very original

But picking the days
That I feel I can peak
And chosen tomorrow







Preview Selections
 
Fontwell 1.48
£9.00 Win Bet Presenting Milan 11/8
£1.00 Win Bet Lightning Maqueen 22/1

Curragh 2.30
One Look 7/2
Each Way

Fontwell 2.58
£5.50 Win Bet Getaway Drumlee 4/1
£4.50 Win Bet  Doc McCoy 11/10-6/5

Curragh 3.05 
£7.00 Win Bet Los Angeles 2/1 
£3.00 Win Bet White Birch 5/2
 
Curragh 3.40
Lake Victoria 10/11-1/1 
Win Bet

Uttoxeter 3.48
£8.50 Win Bet Bhaloo 11/4-5/2
£1.50 Win Bet Matterhorn 5/1

Curragh 4.15
£9.00 Win Bet Murkala 9/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Calrissiana 12/1 








Yesterday's Summary

Controlled effective message
It went P P L P W P P L W W
Only had 2 losing races in 10
One of those was so unlucky
Opportunity would have placed
But was nearly knocked over
The account bet won it easily
Betweenthesticks was too good
Acc bets having a good period
Not had any loser in 6 bets now
Now taken control of the season
Not trying to be arrogant saying it
Control can be lost at any time
But reading things well right now
So will try to keep the run going



 




PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
 
 
Fontwell 1.48

11/10 Just A Heartbeat, 2/1 Presenting Milan
14/1 Lightning Maqueen 14/1 Yarborough
16/1 Locked Down Lad 16/1 West Hill Shadow
100/1 Dandylyon 100/1 Gorcombe Blueskye.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

Not many can be considered

YARBOROUGH may be one
But he is a hurdling debutant
Sired by Kodiac over 2m 3f
None have won beyond 2m
He's had 1 bad run in 11 months
Just lacks enough positives

Go back to 2008
Maiden hurdles
Open to both sexes
Any distance
Any time of year
Mares aged 6 or more
From a non graded bumper
Under 3 career runs
Absent over 26 days
Return a 1-168 record

JUST A HEARTBEAT
Shares the above profile

I'd prefer hurdles form

PRESENTING MILAN 

He has won a bumper
Has raced once over hurdles
Set only a modest standard
But it would be the safest 

Having a small safer
Based mainly on instinct 
Gary Moore's 2nd string
 
Selection

£9.00 Win Bet PRESENTING MILAN 11/8

£1.00 Win Bet LIGHTNING MAQUEEN 22/1







Curragh 2.30

15/8 Porta Fortuna, 4/1 Jancis, 4/1 Vera's Secret
7/1 Birthe, 7/1 One Look, 11/1 Naomi Lapaglia
14/1 Azada, 16/1 Rubies From Burma.

Lanwades Stud Stakes

Fillies Group 2 (8f)

PORTA FORTUNA

She is the best horse
But she has a long break
She also carries a penalty 
And will come on for a run

She may still win the race

On official ratings 
She has 7lbs in hand 

This is interesting

Horses sired by Carvaggio 
Running over only 7f and more
Running in Class 3 and higher
Absent more than 96 days
Return a 0-18 record in them
PORTA FORTUNA next to try
None from her sire has won

That sire stat surprised me
Many finished in second
Don't see it as too persuasive
But not going to select her

VERA'S SECRET is a 6yo
Oldest horse in the race
No 6yo has ever won this
Since the race started 2004
Would stay with the younger

JANCIS drops down in trip
Horses running this season
Coming from 9f or more
With under 11 career runs
Return a 0-12 record in this
Wanted a better profile

The Park Express Stakes
Has been a decent trial for this
Only 5 four year olds ran there
And then went on to this race
Two won and another was 2nd
ONE LOOK does the same

She looks a bit obvious

But seems the percentage bet

Selection

ONE LOOK 7/2

Each Way









Fontwell 2.58

6/4 Doc McCoy, 3/1 Sam's Amour, 4/1 The Bold Thady
4/1 Getaway Drumlee, 16/1 Lelantos, 20/1 Vorderman
25/1 Up The Straight.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 6f

DOC MCCOY won 3 days ago

We backed him when he won

Has the fittest profile in this

Because of that could win easily
But is he going to the well too soon ?

Hard to know

Feel he is a good saver

Betting the class horse

GETAWAY DRUMLEE

Saving on the fittest

DOC MCCOY

The others are resistible

THE BOLD THADY could win
But he is a very exposed 8yo
Who has ran once in 183 days

SAMS AMOUR is an 8yo mare
She lacks a race in 206 days

GETAWAY DRUMLEE

He's been difficult to read
Hard to know enough about him
But capable of winning a 0-110

I'd have liked a more proven pilot
But on balance like the strategy

Selection

£5.50 Win Bet GETAWAY DRUMLEE 4/1

£4.50 Win Bet DOC MCCOY 11/10-6/5








Curragh 3.05

2/1 Los Angeles, 11/4 White Birch, 4/1 Kalpana
11/2 Anmaat, 13/2 Ghostwriter, 12/1 Royal Rhyme
33/1 Continuous, 50/1 Deepone
200/1 Crypto Force.

Tattersalls Gold Cup

Group 1 (10f)

Official ratings show

ANMAAT is the best horse
But his best achievements
Came later in the season
He has a 218 day absence

Go back to 1980

Only 1 winner of this race
Was aged 7 or older
And he had 2 prep runs
ANMAAT is not my choice

GHOSTWRITER is unsafe 
Horses sired by Invincible Spirit
Running in Group races
Over 10f and more
Have a weak 1-55 record
GHOSTWRITER next to try

KALPANA is a 4yo filly
Having her seasonal debut

In the last 15 years
Just 1 filly has won 
Just 1 seasonal debutant
She has to overcome both

The Moorsbridge stakes
The best trial race for this
Horses from that race 
Won in the following years
2010 2011 2016 2019 
2021 2023 2024

LOS ANGELES won that

WHITE BIRCH was in 2nd

No strong view
About which is the best bet

Both horses coincidentally
Finished 3rd in an Epsom Derby

Priced around 2/1 and 5/2
Both prop each other up

I'd rather have both horses
And take a far shorter price

LOS ANGELES becomes 11/10
With money back on White Birch

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet LOS ANGELES 2/1

£3.00 Win Bet WHITE BIRCH 5/2








Curragh 3.40

11/10 Lake Victoria, 9/2 Swelter, 6/1 Flight
13/2 Simmering, 12/1 Atsila, City Of Memphis
16/1 January, 22/1 Duty First, 25/1 Cercene
50/1 California Dreamer, 66/1 Jaliyah
200/1 Tamam Desert.

Irish 1000 Guineas

LADY VICTORIA 

Managed only 6th in the Guineas
But she had suffered a setback

Still started only 9/4 to win that
You would expect improvement
She should improve past horses 
Who finished ahead in the 1000g

FLIGHT was a 28/1 chance
SIMMERING only 33/1 there
 
LADY VICTORIA
Should improve past both

SWELTER second favourite
Has had only the 2 career runs
 
Past Irish 1000g winners 
Had the following career runs

5 3 4 3 3 8 5 
7 4 7 4 5 7 5 
5 6 5 4 5 4 4  

None of the last 21 winners
Had fewer than 3 career runs

SWELTER fails with 2 runs

CITY OF MEMPHIS has 1 run 
Comes from 6f a doubtful stayer
ATSILA also has just 2 races

Expecting the favourite to win

Selection

LADY VICTORIA 10/11-1/1

Win Bet







Uttoxeter 3.48

9/4 Heltenham, 7/2 Bhaloo
4/1 Matterhorn 9/2 Light N Strike, 8/1 Vintage Fizz
16/1 Horantzau d'Airy, 20/1 Glengouly
20/1 Real Stone.

Handicap Chase 2m 4f
 
8 past renewals

Past renewals of this race
Have shown a particular type
Does tend to win this race
 
Every winner 
Had 11-26 career runs

Horses with over 26 runs
Have a 0-30 record in this

Horses with over 11 chase runs
Have a 0-36 record in this race

The following horses
Fail one or both those angles

REAL STONE
LIGHT N STRIKE
GLENGOULY
VINTAGE FIZZ
HELTENHAM

HORANTZAU DAIRY is resistible
And dropping 2 miles in distance

Shortlisting 2 horses

Who match past winners

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BHALOO  5/2-11/4

£1.50 Win Bet MATTERHORN 9/2-5/1







Curragh 4.15

11/4 Murkala, 7/2 Shiota, 5/1 Varshini
6/1 Calrissiana, La Guapisima, 10/1 Empress Artemis
14/1 Fiona Maccoul, 20/1 Gloriously Glam
20/1 Lady Lilac.
 
3yo Fillies Handicap (8f)
 
7 Past renewals

Opposing the bottomweights 
Who are all rated 79 or lower

Horses rated under 80
Have not won this yet (0-12)

FIONA MACCOUL rated 79
May need more recent runs

GLORIOUS GLAM rated 79
Has to step up from 6f to 8f

LADY LILAC hasn't done much
She is 6lbs out of the weights

EMPRESS ARTEMNIS rated 79
Absent longer than past winners

LA GUAPISIMA is topweight
Opposing here on seasonal debut
Every past winner had a recent run

Horses from handicaps
Have a 0-20 record in this

All previous seven winners
Came from pattern races
Or instead from a maiden  
 
The following horses fail

MURKALA
SHIOTA 
FIONA MACCOUL
GLORIOUS GLAM

Best profile

Between 3 and 9 runs
Officially rated at least 80
Not coming from a handicap
Running within 56 days
 
CALRISSIANA has this profile
But it has taken her 6 races 
To win a maiden race at 12/1
Not completely sold on her
But she makes the staking

The 0-20 statistic
About horses from handicaps
Does not make that much sense

Not going to use that angle

SHIOTA won a handicap
Uncomfortable she was 33/1
They may have gone too fast
The pace seemed to collapse
   
VARSHINI has raced twice
But so did last years winner
The one difference in profile
She has raced once this year
Last years winner raced twice
 
MURKALA won a handicap

Badly drawn on seasonal debut
Next time out was badly drawn
From stall 15 of 15 at Gowran

Just about prefer her chances
CALRISSIANA also included

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet MURKALA 9/4

£1.00 Win Bet CALRISSIANA 12/1



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