Mathematician 5165
Tuesday Sept 9th

5 Previews
0 Account Bet

  


Final Deliberations
 
Racing is on strike tomorrow
So next message is Thursday

Will be targeting Doncaster
Targeting an account bet too
Before we get to the weekend

Things were going as normal
But at 7am Betfair went down
Slowed me down for 3 hours

Racing Post website unsteady
Has crashed a couple of times

Thrown a spanner in the works 
Left me with just the 5 previews


One of my better options


Catterick 2.40  

£4.25 Each Way EQUITY LAW 6/1-13/2

£1.50 Win Bet BETWEENTHESTICKS 5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Each way bet and a saver
Prices does make this tight
But there are 1-2-3-4 places
Did not want to turn that down




Making this my best bet

 
Today's Best Bet




Leicester 4.25

£7.00 Win Bet OVER SPICED 7/1
 
£3.00 Win Bet TANJEN 5/2

There are 3 non runners
That's killed my draw stats
This means more dangers
But the prices are generous 

Could and should have been
A better message than it was
But the disruptions have hurt it
And the clock has ran down








Preview Selections


Catterick 2.10
£7.50 Win Bet Stellarmasterpiece 11/4 
£2.50 Win Bet Bollin Neil 11/4-3/1

Catterick 2.40  
£4.25 Each Way Equity Law  6/1-13/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Betweenthesticks 5/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 
 
Catterick 4.10 
£6.50 Win Bet Flowstate 5/1
£2.00 Win Bet Dickieburd 4/1-9/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Dream Deal 7/1

Leicester 4.25 
£7.00 Win Bet Over Spiced 7/1-15/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Tanjen 5/2

Catterick 4.40 
£5.00 Win Bet Our Nicola 8/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Law Degree 4/5








Yesterday's Summary
 
Just the one race yesterday
Top Flight Century was 4th
We managed a place return
As there was 1-2-3-4 available
He ran well just did enough
But his age probably cost him
In a big field against his elders






PROFILES & PREVIEWS

  
  
Catterick 2.10
 
5/2 Stellarmasterpiece, 100/30 Bollin Neil
7/2 Twoforthegutter, 11/2 Throne Hall, 13/2 Hiccups
7/1 Universal Story, 50/1 Victoria Legend

Handicap 1m 6f

Horses rated 0-65

Some of these look opposable

UNIVERSAL SONG is rated 62
She Is a 4yo filly absent 97 days  

THRONE HALL well beat last time
Over 18 lengths just 14 days ago

HICCIPS is running low numbers
Rated 46 well adrift on official ratings
VICTORIA LEGEND the same profile
 
TWOFORTHEGUTTER is a danger
Only if he stays he only just seems to

STELLARMASTERPIECE

Topweight and rated 65
Shortlisted and could easily win 

BOLLIN NEIL

He has been well backed
Despite having lost 20 lengths
In his last race just 6 days ago

It was very clear in that race
He went off much too quickly 
He inevitably ran out of petrol

Prefer split staking two horses

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet STELLARMASTERPIECE 11/4

£2.50 Win Bet BOLLIN NEIL 11/4-3/1








Catterick 2.40

9/2 Thankuappreciate, 5/1 Albegone
11/2 Betweenthesticks, 7/1 Birkenhead, 8/1 Equity Law
8/1 Miss Brazen, 10/1 Le Beau Garcon, Military Girl
12/1 Lucius Aurelius, 14/1 Keldeo, Our Absent Friends
20/1 Chuti Manika, 40/1 Desert Champion.

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-75

Starting with the draw

Go back to 2019
Catterick
5f handicaps 
With over 9 runners
Horses drawn 1-2 
Absent over 15 days
Beaten last time out
Have a 1-80 record

Can never fully trust a draw stat
But questions marks against these

TWOFORTHEGUTTER drawn 1

ALBEGONE is drawn 2
Would not choose him as a 7yo
Without a race in 86 days here


I'd prefer a very fit profile

The following do not have that

MISS BRAZEN an older mare
Not had a race for 32 days

Similar races show
Mares aged 5 or older
Absent more than 3 weeks
Have a 0-58 record in them
MISS BRAZEN fails this 

LE BEAU GARCON has 60 days off

LUCIUS AURELIUS is a 3yo
He's raced just once in 139 days

MILITARY GIRL is a 3yo filly
She's raced just once in 104 days
    
KELDEO is a filly with an absence
 
BIRKENHEAD is an 8yo
He is fit and running well
But there are fitter profiles
Stall 12 makes it interesting
 
Go back to 2003
Catterick 5f handicaps
Ignoring Amateur races
Horses aged 7 or more
Drawn in stall 11 or higher 
Carrying 8st 10lbs or more
Have a poor 1-73 record 
BIRKINHEAD is next to try

CHUTI MANIKA is a 3yo
Not really running well enough
DESERT CHAMPION likewise

OUR ABSENT FRIENDS a 7yo
Has to bounce back from a bad run

Shortlisting 2

EQUITY LAW

BETWEENTHESTICKS 
 
BETWEENTHESTICKS is a 5yo 
He is fit and running very well

All his 6 career wins
Came with short absences
Running within 18 days
He could add to that today


EQUITY LAW is topweight

Drops down in class here

Selection
 
£4.25 Each Way EQUITY LAW 6/1-13/2

£1.50 Win Bet BETWEENTHESTICKS 5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Catterick 4.10

15/8 Crocodile Power, 11/2 Flowstate, 6/1 Highjacked
6/1 Dickieburd, 7/1 One More Dream, 8/1 Dream Deal
9/1 Evocative Spark, 20/1 Pit Boss.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

CROCODILE POWER a 7yo
Understandably weak in the market
Not surprised with a 48 day absence

Go back to 2004
August to November
6f Handicaps
Class 6 races
With over 4 runners
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 44 days
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-44 record in them
CROCODILE POWER shares this

Go back to 2004
August to November
6f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Non Amateur races
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 22 days
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-43 record in them
HIJACKED fails this statistic
 
EVOCATIVE SPARK is a 6yo
He looks underraced right now
Just 2 runs in the last 8 months

PIT BOSS looks short of class
First run for a new stable today


DICKIEBURD is topweight
 
Torn over his chance

I do like his backclass

Drops down 2 grades today
Never been in this low a class
Looks an outstanding chance

But his profile isn't solid
August to October
6f handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 5 or more
Coming from a 5f race
Absent over 14 days
Carrying 9st 9llbs or more
Have a 0-27 record in them

DICKIEBURD has this profile
ONE MORE DREAM does too

Fittest profiles

FLOWSTATE
DREAM DEAL

Both tempting on that angle

But drawn to Dickieburd on class
Even if his profile is not too good

Going to dutch three horses

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet FLOWSTATE 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet DICKIEBURD 4/1-9/2

£1.50 Win Bet DREAM DEAL 7/1








Leicester 4.25

4/1 Harb, 4/1 Tanjen, 6/1 Catch Cunningham
6/1 Fenlander, 8/1 Fletcher's Flight, 10/1 Over Spiced
12/1 Dandy Dinmont, The Feminine Urge, 14/1 Fortunate Star
16/1 Digital, 16/1 Toolatetonegotiate.

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-68

CATCH CUNNINGHAM topweight
Happy to oppose him drawn 11/11

Go back to 2011
Leicester 5f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 6 or more
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-26 record in them
CATCH CUNNINGHAM fails this 

HARB does not convince me 
Having just 1 run in 152 days

DIGITAL rejected with his absence

I'd want some recent runs
The following are short of those
Having raced only once in 8 weeks

HARB
TOOLATETONEGOTIATE
FENLANDER

FLETCHERS FLIGHT is unsafe
Older horse double figure draw

There is some strength in depth
A couple of younger improvers 

Decided to use this angle

Runs in the last 8 weeks

5 Over Spiced
5 Tanjen
3 Fletcher's Flight
3 Fortunate Star
3 Catch Cunningham
2 Dandy Dinmont
2 The Feminine Urge
1 Fenlander
1 Harb
1 Toolatetonegotiate
0 Digital

This leads me to two horses

Both of these 3yo fillies

TANJEN is up in class
Her profile is just neutral

OVER SPICED has a better one

She is likely to get out in front
Try and make all of the running


Non runners

HARB
TOOLATETONEGOTIATE 
FLETCHERS FLIGHT


Selection

£7.00 Win Bet OVER SPICED 7/1
 
£3.00 Win Bet TANJEN 5/2







Catterick 4.40

4/1 Ey Up He's A Star, 9/2 Law Degree
5/1 Uncle Sam 6/1 Lima Sierra, 8/1 Latona
8/1 Our Nicola, Suzette, 16/1 Sanditon, 20/1 Oilisa
25/1 Gesundheit, 33/1 Good Reward, Miss Cast

3yo Handicap 7f
 
LAW DEGREE has topweight
Very exposed with 22 races

Go back to 2008
June to October
3yo handicaps 
Class 6 races
Any distance
 Male 3 year olds
Over 18 career races
Absent over just 9 days
Carrying 9st 1lbs or more
Return a 0-41 record
LAW DEGREE fails this
  
LATONA is only rated 48
A filly with 1 run in 89 days
Against her and these others
Who are all rated rather low
 
MISS CAST
OILSA
GOOD REWARD

GESUNDHEIT is underraced

SANDITION lacks positives
With his figures regressive

SUZETTE is a filly
Two strikes against her

She is a filly
With just 1 run in 61 days
But she is also drawn 1

Go back to 2022
Catterick
7f handicaps
Over 9 runners
Horses drawn 1
Have a 0-42 record
SUZETTE fails this

UNCLE SAM has a chance
But thats a speedy pedigree
I would argue stamina doubts
And will 32 days off not for me

EY UP HE'S A STAR is unsafe
Up in trip with 52 days absence

July to October
3yo handicaps over 7f
Class 6 races
Horses from 6f or shorter
Absent more than 37 days
Carrying 8st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-52 record in them
EY UP HE'S A STAR fails this

LIMA SIERRA is a filly
She's exposed with 14 runs
Has not ran in almost 4 weeks
Big weight not a safe profile

OUR NICOLA is a filly
Fittest profile but only rated 45
Feel I need to draft in a saver
The class horse to get a place

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet OUR NICOLA 8/1

£5.00 Place Bet LAW DEGREE 4/5

*******************************************************
*******************************************************