7 Previews
0 Account Bet

    


Final Deliberations
  
 
Today's Best Bet

Naas 4.38
War Saint 4/1-9/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5


Better quality racing today 
Have to say I like the cards
Pleased with the message  
Happy with all the previews


Future Betting Angles

Been on a summer sabbatical
Down to work load pressure
Things are easing up a little
So will bring it back next week
With the National Hunt in play
Kerry National is Sunday week


7 Previews

4 Ayr

3 Naas


There were several options
For the message's best bet

Last sunday the best bet
Runs in the 4.15pm today
He could gain compensation

This was another clear option


Ayr 2.45 

HORNSEA BAY 9/2-4/1 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5


But I like the nursery in the last

Going with this selection instead


 
Today's Best Bet


Naas 4.38

WAR SAINT 9/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Preview Selections

 
Naas 2.07 
£7.50 Win Bet Luna Mia 4/1-9/2 
£2.50 Win Bet You'll Think Of Me 3/1

Ayr 2.15 
£4.00 Each Way Jm Jhingree 13/2-6/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Emperor's Son 11/1-12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Monks Dream 15/2 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5 
 
Ayr 2.45 
Hornsea Bay 9/2-4/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Naas 3.07 
£8.00 Win Bet Namiid 2/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Controlled 7/2

Ayr 3.15
£8.50 Win Bet Brielle 5/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Donna Nook 13/2

Ayr 4.15
£7.50 Win Bet Quiet Resolve 100/30-7/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Epidavros 3/1-11/4

Naas 4.38
War Saint 4/1-9/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5





Yesterday's Summary 

Just 4 previews yesterday
Struggled to find that much
Managed to get one winner
I'd have took that beforehand
Hashtagnotions that winner
Drifted and returned at 9/1
Just glad we had one winner
Felt we were rather unlucky 
Danger Alert finished in 2nd
Maybe I staked that badly
Rockview Consort my best bet
Was another drifter 9/2-13/2
She fell with two hurdles to go
Going nicely far from beaten
Confident she'd have placed
She might even have won it
Will never know but unlucky
Glad to get past a tough day
And happy with one winner




PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Naas 2.07

3/1 Tornado Kiss, 7/2 You'll Think Of Me
6/1 Little Sure Shot, 6/1 Luna Mia, 13/2 Lumiere Des Etoile
8/1 Salama Blue Point, 12/1 Jackie Jump Up, 12/1 Micaela De Lujan
14/1 Gimme Energy, 20/1 Lady Duquesa, 20/1 Quinta Girl
25/1 Baahyeh 25/1 Jungle Bird, 33/1 Lil Hot Shot
50/1 Divine Blue, 50/1 Friendly Invoice, 50/1 Miss Ivor.

6f Maiden

2yo Fillies

Partly guessing here

All 6 past winners of this
Had previous experience

Opposing ll the unraced
SALAMA BLUE POINT is one
May be hard first time drawn 1

LITTLE SURE SHOT rejected
As like her name she is small

TORNADO KISS has ran once
That was 75 days ago over 5f

Had a play with her
Can not rule her out
Thought this was worth a look

Naas
2 year olds over 6f
Horses with just 1 run
Coming from 5f races
Have won several races
When having lower draws
Those drawn 8 or higher
Had a weaker 1-41 record
TORNADO KISS next to try

Not a negative

She could easily win
But going with two horses
With more recent races

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet LUNA MIA 4/1-9/2

£2.50 Win Bet YOU'LL THINK OF ME 100/30







Ayr 2.15

11/2 Vince L'Amour, 7/1 Harb, 8/1 Jm Jhingree
8/1  Never Dark, 10/1 Emperor's Son, 10/1 Monks Dream
10/1 Your Love, 12/1 Lucius Aurelius, 14/1 Ganesha
14/1 Happier, 14/1 Royal Duke, 14/1 Thunderstorm Katie
16/1 Dandy Magic, Orbital Chime, 20/1 Joshuas Dream
25/1 Spring Corn, 33/1 Pockley, 33/1 Sixcor.
 
5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-70

Trying to narrow this down

HARB is exposed with 46 runs
Has ran just once in 161 days
Happy to ignore his chances

Horses aged 3
Have a poor 4-113 record

None had under 8 runs

JOSHUAS DREAM fails this
Rejected also with 432 days off

YOUR LOVE only has 3 runs

Horses aged 3
With over 12 career runs
Have a 0-58 record in this
JM JHINGREE has this problem

DANDY MAGIC a 3yo filly
Has raced just once since April

Horses aged 3
With 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-26 record in this

LUCIUS AURELIUS fails this
He has a vicious draw in 17

SPRING CORN is a 3 year old
He is not doing well enough

ORBITAL CHIME is rejected
Coming from the worst draw
POCKLEY has a tough draw
He is not doing enough now

GANESHA an exposed 4yo
Has raced only once in 99 days

THUNDERSTORM KATIE a 4yo filly
Does not look an obvious winner
Stall 15 may not be great help

Ayr 5f handicaps
Show fillies under 5
Drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-41 record so far
THUNDERSTORM KATIE tries this

SIXCOR ran too badly 5 days ago

NEVER DARK is an 8yo

September
Ayr 5f handicaps
Any class of race
Horses aged 8 or more
Carrying 8st 10lbe or more
Return a 0-42 record 
NEVER DARK fails this

That leaves 5 horses

VINCE L'AMOUR 
ROYAL DUKE
EMPEROR'S SON
HAPPIER
MONKS DREAM 

VINCE L'AMOUR has 9st 12lbs

September
Ayr 5f handicaps
Any class of race
Horses with 9st 10lbs +
Absent more than 8 days
Return a 0-25 record
VINCE L'AMOUR just fails

His weight is no positive
Neither is his draw in stall 1

HAPPIER is draw 2

Go back to 1997
Ayr 5f handicaps
Any class of race
Ány time of year
With 11 or more runners 
Horses with over 8 runs
Absent more than 14 days
Carrying 8st 11lbs or more
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-26
Drawn in stall 2 are 0-21 
HAPPIER fails this drawn 2

ROYAL DUKE won last time
But that was only a class 6
And he's had 22 days off
 
EMPEROR' SON looks good
Said to be a bit of a monkey

MONKS DREAM is shortlisted
His stable run 4 horses in this
Market says joint 2nd string 

Right or wrong 
 
ROYAL DUKE gets dropped

JM JHINGREE gets promoted
Did not like his profile initially
But none that shared his profile
Had recent runs as he does
I am fast warming to him now
   
Selection
 
£4.00 Each Way JM JHINGREE 13/2-6/1

£1.00 Win Bet EMPEROR' SON 11/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet MONKS DREAM 15/2

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Ayr 2.45

100/30 Crowd Quake, 5/1 Hornsea Bay
11/2 Dain Ma Nut In, 6/1 El Burhan, 8/1 Financer
10/1 Dark Moon Rising, 12/1 Have Secret, Liberty Coach
14/1 Cloth Of Gold, 16/1 Flying Finn, 25/1 Austrian Theory
25/1 Sex On Fire, 66/1 Midnight Lion.
 
10f Handicap

Class 2 race
 
Horses aged 3-4 
Have dominated this race
 
Since the 2012 renewal
Horses aged 5 or older
Have a 0-61 record in this

HAVE SECRET is a 5yo
Topweight and 68 days off
Suggests he has an lot to do

Other older horses

DARK MOON RISING
AUSTRIAN THEORY
MIDNIGHT LION

Opposing a few others

CLOTH OF GOLD has 3 runs
And faces a 280 day absence

Most past winners
Had at least 3 runs
In the previous 3 months

No 3yo that won
Had fewer than 3 recent runs
All 16 that tried were beaten

SEX OF FIRE fails this

EL BURHAN also fails this too
He's raced just once in 89 days

FLYING FINN is a filly
She's ran just once in 104 days

LIBERTY COACH is a 4 year old
Not for me from the widest draw

FINANCER won this last season
He was a 3 year old won at 33/1
This year a much higher weight
Been off the track a little longer
Significantly weaker draw as well
Would not be my first choice
No past winner was drawn 12 +

DAIN MA NUT IN a 4yo
Comes here on a hat trick
Looked at similar horses

August to November
10f handicaps
Class 2 races
Horses aged 4
Winning last time out
Over 13 career runs
Absent over 19 days
Carrying 8st 11lbs or more
Return a 0-39 record
When trying to follow up

Not sure how strong that is
But it stops me shortlisting him

That leaves 2 horses

CROWN QUAKE 9/4

HORNSEA BAY 9/2-4/1
  
Hard to stake this

CROWN QUAKE down in trip
Does appeal as a saver at 9/4

But there are 4 places

HORNSEA BAY each way
Might be the safer option


Selection

HORNSEA BAY 9/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Naas 3.07

7/4 Aegina, 9/4 Namiid, 4/1 Controlled
10/1 Spicetown, 12/1 Schoolyard Days, 12/1 Whatastarr
14/1 Rumba Club, 20/1 Lilbittyprettyone, 25/1 Stonezilian
50/1 Battleforsupremacy, 66/1 Cheaperbythebottle.

2yo Maiden 5f

AEGINA has ran once

That was 159 days off

Significant given she is a 2yo

This is quite interesting

Go back to 1997
2 year old maidens
Run over 5f
Any time of year 
No filly in any race
Has won absent over 147 days
All 30 that tried were beaten

Some won in 6f maidens
But over 5f all 30 were beaten
AEGINA would be the first one

Don't see her as a big negative
But others have more positives

Agree with the Racing Post

" The experience gained by Namiid 
  in seven outings may prove decisive"

We opposed him last time
Failed a nasty draw angle

CONTROLLED is a problem
Hard to know what he will do
Second run for Aidan O'Brien

Going to squeeze a saver in

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet NAMIID 2/1

£2.00 Win Bet CONTROLLED 7/2






Ayr 3.15

5/4 Aeolian, 100/30 Brielle, 9/2 Donna Nook
8/1 Tsuki, 14/1 Sophiesticate, 16/1 Naturalia.

Fillies Handicap 10f

Small field messy race

AEOLIAN left me cold

Might win and embarrass me
But her profile is very strange

Go back to 1998
July to November
Fillies handicaps
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 3
Under 4 races
From a pattern race
Beaten over 7 lengths
Returned a 0-51 record

AEOLIAN fails this angle

Messy options

Came down this way

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BRIELLE 5/2

£1.50 Win Bet DONNA NOOK 13/2






Ayr 4.15

5/2 Coeur Jaune, 5/1 Quiet Resolve, 11/2 Epidavros
13/2 Motawaared, 8/1 Redarna, 9/1 One Eye Jack
10/1 Perfidia, 11/1 West Tyrone, 12/1 Sea Legend.

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-74

SEA LEGEND is topweight
Resisting him down 4f in trip

One or two unsafe profiles

MOTAWAARED 90 days off
PERFIDIA may lack the class

COEUR JAUNE is a 3yo filly
With 33 days off and 9st 8lbs
Can not match her to a winner

REDARNA is insafe
Up in trip as an 11 year old

ONE EYE JACK has a chance

Just 1 run in the last 67 days
In the same period of time

QUIET RESOLVE had 3 runs

EPIDAVROS has had 4 runs

QUIET RESOLVE ran 4 days ago

Placed in Doncaster's "Legends race"

He was my best bet that day
He is tempting each way here

But he is under 4/1
 
EPIDAVROS has major claims
This is a healthy drop in class
Going to split stake this race

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet QUIET RESOLVE 100/30-7/2
 
£2.50 Win Bet EPIDAVROS 3/1-11/4






Naas 4.38

5/1 Servare, 6/1 The Holy Apostle, 6/1 War Saint
7/1 Zebrina, 15/2 Leblon Queen, 17/2 Wild Berries
9/1 Synners Kid, 12/1 Femme Beauty, John La Bear
14/1 Celestial Siren, 16/1 Bear Right, 25/1 Clarity Of Thought
33/1 Sapphire Dream, 50/1 Ella's Gold, 100/1 Elza Diva
100/1 Swinging The World.

8f Nursery
 
Opposing the topweights
Who all have more weight
Than any previous winners

Two of them also come from
The widest two stalls as well.
These horses are rejected

CELESTIAL SIREN
WILD BERRIES
BEAR RIGHT

Opposing the bottomweights
The horses rated 53 of lower
Who don't seem to offer much

SERVARE is up in distance
He was 50/1 in his first handicap
That does not inspire confidence

THE HOLY APOSTLE is similar
Also 50/1 in his first handicap

LEBLON QUEEN is a filly
Not safe with a big weight
And 75 days off the track

SYNNERS KID has 3 races
Has not done enough yet

FEMME BEAUTRY has 6 runs
Only managed a rating of 62

CLARITY OF THOUGHT 6 runs
Shortlisted with a recent run

One curious fact in this race
Colts have a 0-33 record so far
The following are all colts

CLARITY OF THOUGHT
SYNNERS KID
SERVARE

ZEBRINA offers some promise 
But nothing of any substance yet

Fillies have the best record

WAR SAINT is a positive

Fillies like her are best
Several won with 4 runs
In 2018 2021 and 2022
 
Decent run at Down Royal

She was drawn 16 of 16 there

Came over raced in last placed 

Finished fast down the middle

She should appreciate a mile

Selection
 
WAR SAINT 9/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


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