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Final Deliberations

Heading towards the weekend

We've been flatlining for too long
Need to regain some momentum   
Navigating this dangerous period
Big fields late season soft ground

Today traditionally is quite limited
Listowel has plenty of huge fields
Would not be sensible to attack

Newmarket an information card
So been as selective as I could
Pontefract offers two handicaps

Settled on 6 races 

Don't see many opportunities

Prefer two split stake bets today

Saving on the favourite in both



Newmarket 3.35
 
£6.00 Win Bet WECHAAD 11/2-6/1 

£4.00 Win Bet DISTANT STORM 5/4



Listowel 5.10

£6.00 Win Bet UNCLE PAT 4/1-7/2

£4.00 Win Bet MOSSY FEN PARK 11/8-6/4


Forced to pick between them

Listowel is the safer race

As it is far less competitive




Today's Best Bet


Listowel 5.10 

£6.00 Win Bet Uncle Pat 4/1-7/2

£4.00 Win Bet Mossy Fen Park 11/8-6/4







Preview Selections


Newmarket 1.50 
Del Maro 11/10 
Win Bet
 
Pontefract 2.08
£6.50 Win Bet Fortunate Star 11/2 
£3.50 Win Bet Canaria Queen 7/4-15/8

Newmarket 3.00 
£6.00 Win Bet Lady Roxby  5/1-11/2 
£4.00 Place Bet Arabian Leopard 6/4
 
Newmarket 3.35
£6.00 Win Bet Wechaad 11/2-6/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Distant Storm 5/4

Pontefcart 5.05 
Vulcan Way 2/1 
Win Bet

Listowel 5.10 
£6.00 Win Bet Uncle Pat 4/1-7/2
£4.00 Win Bet Mossy Fen Park 11/8-6/4





Yesterday's Summary

Kerry National the main plan
Thecompanysergeant ran ok
In the front rank for most of it
Faded back into sixth place
Think some firms offered that
So maybe an each way bet
Would have been a bit better
The other races were low key
Managed a couple of places
Another got beaten on the line
Little to celebrate overall though
All came down to the one race
And we did not find the winner






PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Newmarket 1.50

6/4 Maltese Cross, 7/4 Del Maro
13/2 Moonlight Warrior, 10/1 Moment Of Light
10/1 Ranga Tang, 20/1 Balzac, 33/1 Jackabi.

2yo Maiden 8f

Might be a two horse race

There are known unknowns

MOONLIGHT WARRIOR is one
Unraced from the widest stall
Would not make him selection
Against two experienced types
Who cost bobs from big stables

DEL MARO cost 850,000gns

MALTESE CROSS cost 350,000gns
 
DEL MARO cost a lot more 
That is not particularly significant 
But he does have one extra race
Having ran twice to his rivals once
That may not be significant either

Favourite on his debut
That was a Newmarket maiden
DEL MARO missed the break

He went to Doncaster last time
Only finished 3rd on soft ground
Watching that race it just looked
Like the leaders went off too fast
He ran out petrol late in the race
Feel he is better than he showed
Got the decision in a tight choice 
 
Selection

DEL MARO 11/10

Win Bet






Pontefract 2.08

9/4 Canaria Queen, 4/1 Papa Don't Preach
11/2 Masterclass, 13/2 Fortunate Star, 9/1 Kyber Crystal
9/1 Ninety Nine, 10/1 Brazen Rascal, Glendown.

5f Handicap

Apprentice riders

PAPA DON'T PREACH is a 6yo 
Mixes topweight and 105 days off 

At his best he has enough ability
But most rivals have recent runs

Many of the lower rated horses
Come from Classified stakes
And finished unplaced in those

NINETY NINE
BRAZEN RASCAL
GLENDOWN

KYBER CRYSTAL lacks positives
He is held on last run by the favourite

MASTERCLASS has his chance
But his figures on softer ground
Are not particularly encouraging

CANARIA QUEEN is shortlisted
She is fit and running very well
 
FORTUNATE STAR is a 5yo
Has the ability but one dilemma
Has he run himself out of form
Last 2-3 runs were rather flat
He had a bad draw last time out
Can offer other excuses for him
But a lingering doubt about him
And how close to his best he is
This is a much easier race though
And going to risk him with a saver

Small Stakes

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet FORTUNATE STAR 11/2

£3.50 Win Bet CANARIA QUEEN 7/4-15/8







Newmarket 3.00

11/4 Royal Velvet, 5/1 Lady Roxby
11/2 Arabian Leopard, 6/1 Angel Shared, 8/1 Shallow
10/1 Harvanna, 12/1 Cinque Verde, 12/1 Jumbeau
12/1 My Awele, 20/1 Powdering, 33/1 Hurt You Never.

Fillies Handicap 6f

Horses rated 0-91

These races are rare

I am against the favourite 
But we will have to guess

ROYAL VELVET

She is topweight
She has the widest draw
She has never ran over 6f
And has no recent run to help

Go back to 2007
Fillies Handicaps 6f
Class 2 races
Any distance
With over 5 runners 
Horses with over 15 runs
Absent more than 26 days
Have a 0-44 record in them

ROYAL VELVET fails this

The following also fail this

ANGEL SHARED
HURT YOU NEVER
HARVANNA

Some of the above
Only just fail that angles
But they do all fail it

POWDERING is out
Not nearly enough 6 days ago
JUMBEAU is an older mare
Not for me coming from 5f
CINQUE VERDE very exposed
May be out of her depth here

MY AWELE is a 3 year old
Snuck in off bottomweight here
But he comes from a Class 5
She is going up 3 grades in class
Not lightly raced with 16 races
Which feels a big ask for her

Shortlisting 3 horses

SHALLOW
LADY ROXBY
ARABIAN LEOPARD

SHALLOW has her chance
Only off putting factor for me
Her last 3 runs in Class 2 races
She was 40/1 33/1 50/1

ARABIAN LEGEND is fine
She is going up 2 grades though

LADY ROXBY is a 3yo
Offers a good run 9 days ago

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet LADY ROXBY 5/1-11/2
 
£4.00 Place Bet ARABIAN LEOPARD 6/4







Newmarket 3.35

5/4 Distant Storm, 5/1 Archer Royal
11/2 Catullus 7/1 Wechaad, 10/1 Northern Champion
14/1 Commander's Intent, 14/1 Rogue Supremacy
Special Dividend.

Tattersall Stakes

2yo Group 3 

7 furlongs

DISTANT STORM has 2 runs

He sets the standard so far

CATTALUS has some form
But he looks the second string
May not stop him winning this
But the stable jockey rejects him

ARCHER ROYAL has ran once
Looks above average on that run
But he is short on experience
 
Previous winners of this
Had the following runs

5 2 1 4 2 5 4 2 5 1 
2 4 3 7 4 4 4 7 2
 
17 of the last 19 winners
Raced at least twice before

We have had 2 winners
Who had raced only once
The 2022 winner did this
But in a tiny 4 runner race

Going to oppose the horses
Who have raced only once

ARCHER ROYAL
NORTHERN CHAMPION

WECHAAD is interesting

Comes from a Nursery
 
Horses from Nurseries
Have an encouraging 3-7 record

All 3 winners

Came from the same race
Run at the St Leger festival
WECHAAD also ran there

The 2010 2018 2021 winners
Came from the same nursery
They had 4 4 5 career starts
Two won last time as he did

Can he beat the favourite ?

Not sure he needs to improve
But has an eyecatching profile

Maybe the answer
Likes in the split stake bet

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet WECHAAD 13/2-6/1 

£4.00 Win Bet DISTANT STORM 5/4




  


Pontefcart 5.05

6/4 Sonic Pioneer, 4/1 Vulcan Way
5/1 Very Muddy Waters 7/1 Haliphon, 8/1 Kitsune Power
10/1 Tequila, 16/1 Greek Giant, 16/1 Solar Bentley
50/1 Solar Saving.

12f Handicap

Horses rated 0-69

Happy to oppose a few of these

GREEK GIANT is underraced
Just the 1 run since May 2024

SOLAR BENTLEY is underraced

TEQUILA is a 3 year old filly
Stepping up over 2f in distance
On the back of a poor run
If you look at his sire's record
Horses sired by Siyouni
Running over 12f and more
On ground softer than good
All 61 that tried were beaten

KITSUNE POWER is topweight
He is a 6yo down 4f in distance
Can find just one winner like him
But would not me my first choice

SONIC PIONEER is a 3yo

Won a 10f race 
Moves up to 12f today
Will he stay 12 furlongs ?
His sire's record is a worry

Horses sired by Massaat
Running on grass and sand
Running over 12f and further
Have a 0-34 record so far
SONIC PIONEER fails this

Horses sired by Massaat
Running only on grass 
Over 1m 2f and further
Have a 0-50 record so far
SONIC PIONEER fails this

Not calling him a non stayer
Not with a good recent race
But there has to be a doubt

HALIPHON is an 8 year old
No recent run 46 days off
No strong on breeding stats

Horses sired by Showcasing
Running over 1m 4f and more
Have an overall 7-123 record 
Those running on ground
That was softer than good
Return a 0-37 record so far
HALIPHON fails this profile
VERY MUDDY WATERS does

Several of these
Fail breeding angles
In terms of their sire
Has not bred any winner
Over this far on softer ground
The horses who do fail this

SONIC PIONEER
HALIPHON
VERY MUDDY WATERS
TEQUILA
SOLAR SAVING

VULCAN WAY 

Looks the safest option

Selection

VULCAN WAY 2/1

Win Bet







Listowel 5.10

6/4 Mossy Fen Park, 11/4 Oscars Brother, 9/2 Uncle Pat
14/1 Luckinthecity, 16/1 Beaufort Scale 25/1 Bright Legend
33/1 Hitak, 50/1 Prophet's Corner 100/1 Princess Georgie.

Beginners Chase 2m 6f

Shapes like a 3 horse race
 
MOSSY FEN PARK 

Sets a reasonable standard here
First time out he has every chance

UNCLE PAT from Willie Mullins
Had 2 respectable chase runs
Going over 3m on his debut
May have been too much for him
Ran flat at Galway on 2nd start
But his 55 day break may help

With Mullins and De Bromhead
Both running well fancied horses
Should we avoid a smaller stable

OSCARS BROTHER

Trained by Connor King

This trainer has a 1-13 record
Only had 4 horses in 13 races
Can we trust a trainer like that
With a horse with a long break
Against some high class stables

OSCARS BROTHER a 7yo
Ran a decent chase debut
But the favourite fell early on
It was several months ago
He only cost 8 grand to buy
The circumstantial evidence
Does not add up to that much

Going with stronger stables
Rather have 2 on my side
Than 1 from a small stable

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet UNCLE PAT 4/1-7/2

£4.00 Win Bet MOSSY FEN PARK 11/8-6/4

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