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Final Deliberations
 
This is 12 messages in a row 
Need to slow things down now
Bit tired and ready for a break

Decided instead to work today 
Just do a short early message

Easter weekend was not great

There were two account bets 
Both of these returned stakes

Elsewhere not too impressive

Found it a little bit frustrating
That from Friday to Monday
We only had 4 flat turf cards
The national Hunt dominated

Much fairer schedule this week

There is a message tomorrow

Not sure if I will drop a day
Ideally I like to do messages
Until a week on Wednesday


Main reason for doing today

An Epsom race I like a lot



Epsom 1.35

ALMATY STAR 11/2-6/1 

Each Way




My angles are telling me

He is the right bet in this

I have 2 concerns

There are just 1-2-3 places
But you can get 4 on betfair
I would bet him in win market
And also in the 4 place market

My other worry

This is a fast run 5f

Lots can go wrong tactically

Draw and pace issues

Horses going off too fast
 
But all things fair and equal

This looks a good bet to me

Even better if you get 1-2-3-4



Sending early today

To get more time for tomorrow

One preview one bet message

        

Epsom 1.35

ALMATY STAR 11/2-6/1

Each Way      





Preview Selections
  
Epsom 1.35
Almaty Star 11/2-6/1
Each Way




Yesterday's Summary

Fairyhouse dominated message
The account bet placed each way
Better Times Ahead finished 4th
Every firm offered 1-2-3-4 places 
He ran well maybe 1 run too few
But at least we got him placed
Very unlucky in the opening race
King In Love was heavily backed
He had jumped only the 2 hurdles
Then his jockey just pulled him up
Suspecting he had gone wrong
That was just one of those things
Mywayofthinkin placed each way
Never had a hope in Irish National 
It should have been a better day
Could have been worse though
At least the account bet survived
 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


   
Epsom 1.35

7/2 Fidelius, 11/2 Twilight Fun, 6/1 Spartan Arrow
13/2 Existent, 8/1 Almaty Star, 8/1 Jumbeau
10/1 Michaela's Boy, One Night Stand, 14/1 El Bufalo
14/1 The Coffee Pod, 16/1 Faustus.


5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-92

FIDELIUS is favourite

4 year old with 40 days off

One of 3 horses
From trainer Robert Cowell

Horses aged 4 have won this
None have though since 2012

Most before 2012
Had very recent runs to help

Horses aged 4
Over 8 career runs
Absent over 10 days
Have a 0-48 record in this
The following horses fail

FIDELIUS
EL BUFALO
THE COFFEE POD 

Go back to 1998
Every 5f handicap here
Horses aged 4
Over 10 career runs
Just 1 run in 12 weeks
Horses aged 4 are 0-30
FIDELIUS fails this too
 
Past renewals show
Horses aged 8 or more

Have a weak 1-44 record
They are 0-35 since 2005  
ONE NIGHT STAND fails this
 
FAUTUS is a 7 year old
Happy to oppose first time out

SPARTAN ARROW topweight
Not a good race for high weights

Horses with 9st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-31 record in this 
SPARTAN ARROW fails this

He only has 10 career runs
If you go back to 2007 
Horses with under 20 runs
Have a 0-40 record in this
SPARTAN ARROW fails this
So do the following horses

TWILIGHT FUN
FIDELIUS 
EL BUFALO
 
Horses with 9st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-31 record in this 
MICHAELA'S BOY fails this

Horses with 9st 3lbs or more
Absent longer than 28 days
Have a 0-31 record in this
The following horses fail this

MICHAELA'S BOY
JUMBEAU

EXISTENT has a chance

But horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 19 days
Won just 1 of 22 renewals
They had a 1-49 record
The following horses fail this
EXISTENT
FAUSTUS
ONE NIGHT STAND

ALMATY EXPRESS

Looks the most solid option

Fittest option

Runs from the front

Do not see a better option

 
Selection

ALMATY EXPRESS 11/2-6/1

Each Way

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