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Final Deliberations


 
York only message

Fontwell looks poor

It is a vicious card today
But knew that yesterday

Hoped for an account bet
Very few races are suitable 

Tried to force one through
But the truth of the matter
There is nothing that strong
Probably a bit slack of me
But that is how things fell
Gave it an extra half hour
See if anything developed
But decided against a bet

Had my eye on this race


York 5.00

£7.00 Win Bet Epidavros 9/1 

£3.00 Win Bet Revelance 5/2-9/4

The original plan
Epidavros each way 14/1
With a saver on Relevance

But he has now shortened
And at 9/1 we are restricted
So going win only and saver


Making this my best bet



Today's Best Bet

York 3.00

£4.00 Each Way ALZAHIR 11/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet SQUEALER 11/1-10/1 

£1.00 Win Bet ROUSING ENCORE 12/1-14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Preview Selections

York 3.00
£4.00 Each Way Alzahir 11/1-12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Squealer 11/1-10/1  
£1.00 Win Bet Rousing Encore 12/1-14/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 
 
York 3.30 
£7.50 Win Bet Fireblade 5/1
£2.50 Win Bet Artisan Dancer 3/1

York 4.00
£3.00 Each Way Zain Blue 10/1-9/1
£4.00 Place Bet Per Contra 6/4
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

York 4.30 
£5.00 Win Bet Almeraq 11/8-6/4
£5.00 Place Bet Elmonjed 1/1
 
York 5.00
£7.00 Win Bet Epidavros 9/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Revelance 5/2-9/4
 
York 5.30 
Double Parked 7/1-8/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Yesterday's Summary

Did not go with an account bet
Both the options we had placed
So we would have broke level
Woolhampton won as the saver
Leadenhall Street my best bet
Ran a decent second each way
Looked the winner caught late
Felt that one was stolen from us
Stronger bets aside a poor day
Valiancy was another part winner
He paid for a couple of losers
Publish was a frustrating loser
He looked every inch the winner
Somehow threw it away very late
Suspect he met a quality horse
He gave away too much ground
Zoiros was a self inflicted loser
Changed the stake at last minute
Rejected an each way bet at 9/1
Only to see him finished second
With the official saver only third
Paddy The Squire finished 5th
If we had gone each way there
We would have rescued stakes
Some of the handicaps yesterday
Could only be seen as speculative
Not beating myself up with them
But we should have done better
The stronger bets held their own
But overall an underperformance





PROFILES & PREVIEWS



York 3.00

7/2 Air Force One, 7/1 Dan Tucker, 8/1 Vintage Clarets
10/1 Alzahir, 10/1 King Of Stars, 10/1 Rousing Encore
10/1 Squealer 10/1 Vantheman, 11/1 Bergerac
12/1 Spring Is Sprung, 14/1 Curious Rover, 20/1 Silky Wilkie
25/1 Blinky, 25/1 Dyonisos 

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-99

Picking a few of these off

KING OF STARS is an 8yo
Horses his age rarely win
Last season sprints like this
Only ran twice in 2005

Go back to 1997
June to November
York 5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Open to all aged horses
Horses aged 3
Have a 0-43 record
Oppsoing these 3 year olds

DAN TUCKER
DYONISOS
BLINKY
 
SILKY WILKIE has an absence
  
VINTAGE CLARETS is out
Never won off a mark so high
Ridden by a 7lbs claimer
 
Several of these

Met each other 18 days ago

AIR FORCE ONE 3rd
VINTAGE CLARETS 7th
VANTHEMAN 10th
CURIOUS ROVER 11th
SQUEALER 12th
BERGERAC 14th
SPRING IS SPRUNG 18th
 
AIR FORCE ONE  
Finished 3rd here 18 days ago
Did the best of those beaten
With only 2 runs in 11 months
He was entitled to have needed it

He is a bit short at 5/2

What bothers me about him

None like him have won here

Go back to 1997
York 5f Handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 15 career runs
Have a poor 2-93 record
Those like him
With under  6 runs
In the previous 12 months
Have a 0-50 record in them
AIR FORCE ONE fails this
With just 3 times in 13 months
Going to oppose him at 5/2

BERGERAC is a 7yo
Would not be first choice
But respected and could win
Made him a negative last time
As a 7yo with 33 days off
Should strip fitter today

CURIOUS ROVER is a 4yo
Another who ran here last time
Probably needs a career best
 
SPRING IS SPRUNG is a 6yo
Ran here last time out
Made him a negative then
Going up 2 grades in class
With just 1 run in 80 days
When also drawn in stall 1

What worries me about him
Stall 2 could just be a bit low

Go back to 2004
York 5f handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of year
With over 7 runners
Horses aged 4 or older
More than 12 career runs
Absent more than 13 days
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3
Return a 0-62 record
 
VANTHEMAN is a 4yo 
Has raced 9 times in this class
Unplaced in all of those races
But far too early to write him off
Had some bad draws this year
Made him a negative a few times
Had some excuses as well

Not sure how relevant this is

Go back to 1997
York 5f Handicaps
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 18 career starts
Rated 92 or lower
Have a 0-105 record

VANTHEMAN fails this
AIR FORCE ONE does

Shortlist

ALZAHIR has topweight 

Get the following beaten
 
Vintage Clarets  
Bergerac 

Neither who are obvious

ALZAHIR rated 99
Only faces a 0-91 class race
 
Squealer rated 91
Makes it on the staking
So does not matter if he wuins

Get Dyonisos beaten at 40/1
ALZAHIR then looks brighter
Only faces a 0-88 class field
He could outclasses the rest


SQUEALER is a 5yo
Ran here last time out
Failed a draw stat that day
Failed an absence stat too
 
If he runs to his best
He has the ability to win
 
ROUSING ENCORE a 5yo
Did not do much last time
But he missed the break
And was tenderley handled
Has he widest draw today
Not ideal but not a dealbreaker
Drawn badly in the St Wilfrid
He has strong track form
 
Having 2 cheap savers

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ALZAHIR 11/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet SQUEALER 11/1-10/1 

£1.00 Win Bet ROUSING ENCORE 12/1-14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4









York 3.30

3/1 Artisan Dancer, 11/2 Terrorise, 6/1 Fireblade
6/1 Umbria, 13/2 Diamond Bay, 8/1 Gibside
10/1 Rock N Roll Pinkie, 12/1 Ribble Vibe, 16/1 Enemy
20/1 Scottish Anthem

 2m Handicap

Horses rated 0-95

ENEMY is topweight
Older than all past winners
His sire has not had a winner
Over this far in this class

18 past renewals
16  had a run within 35 days
GIBSIDE rejected off 57 days

Opposing the horses from 12f
Neither did enough last time out

SCOTTISH ANTHEM
RIBBLE VIBE

UMBRIA is a 4yo filly
Not a strong profile up in trip

Similar races in September
Show horses aged 7 or more
Coming from 1m 6f or shorter
Beaten last time out
Have a 0-31 record in them
The following horses fail this

DIAMOND BAY
ENEMY

ROCK N ROLL PINKIE an older mare
Comes here after a dissapointing run
She also has the widest draw as well

No 2m race at York
With under 11 runners
Went to the outside stall (10)

FIREBLADE is a 4yo
He has a lot of weight for a 4yo

Past renewals show
Horses aged 4
Beaten over 2 lengths last time
Have a 0-31 record in them
FIREBLADE has this profile
But he was eased down there

TERRORISE also fails this 

Not a negative
But one or two others 
Have a few more positives
He is on a career high mark
  
Horses aged 4
Over 11 career starts
Have a 1-42 record in this

The following horses fail this

FIREBLADE   
TERRORISE

ARTISAN DANCER 

Fit and running well enough

FIREBLADE is still interesting

The above angles he fails 
Can be explained quite well

But the way I see this

Get Enemy 16/1 (Negative) beaten

Get Scottish Anthen (25/1) beaten

FIREBLADE is a 90 rated horse

Facing a 0-83 class race

ARTISAN DANCER is that 83 horse
He can be used as the saver bet
They only have a 0-92 field to beat

Both have been operating nicely
Against much harder opposition


Selection

£7.50 Win Bet  FIREBLADE 5/1
 
£2.50 Win Bet ARTISAN DANCER 3/1







York 4.00

9/4 Danger Bay, 6/1 Gunship, 6/1 Per Contra
15/2 Hornsea Bay, 9/1 Noble Horizon, 10/1 Magnum Opus
14/1 Dark Moon Rising, Tycoon, Zain Blue, 16/1 Dante's Lad
20/1 Contact, Theory Of Tides.

10f Handicap

Horses rated 0-95
 
12 past renewals

But the last was 2022
 
The higher weighted horses
Do not look very appealing

MAGNUS OPUS is topweight
Only a 4 year old with 18 runs
Raced only once in 81 days

THEORY OF TIDES is rejected
Without a race in 12 months

CONTACT hasn't run since 2013

TYCOON a 3yo has 76 days off

12 past renewals

Show horses with 9st 8lbs
Have a poor 1-43 record
Which suggests it is right
To oppose the above horses

Suspect a lightweight may win
There are few other negatives
So it will involve a guess here

DANGER BAY has 4 runs
Lightly raced on a hat trick
One objection is his short price
The other is drawn 12 of 12
Not definitive but the worst draw

This race has been brought back
From when it was last ran in 2022

Results prior to that
Show older horses don't do well

Horses aged 6 or more are 1-87
Horses aged 7 or more are 0-51

Opposing these older horses

CONTACT
DARK MOON RISING

Horses aged 3
Have a 3-43 record in this

All 3 winners aged 3
Ran in the last 16 days

DANTES LAD has 38 days off

GUNSHIP has not run in 80 days
Some like him won at other tracks
So not considering him a negative

PER CONTRA

Has a very solid profile

Makes obvious each way appeal
But faces several less exposed

Always the danger with his type
Whilst he ticks multiple boxes
When will this be one run too far
Is he going to the well too often
Another hard race 15 days ago

ZAIN BLUE met him there
He has about 3 lengths to find
But had the widest draw last time
He gets a lot of weight as well
Should be capable of winning
Now he has been dropped to 81

Trappy race for small stakes

The favourite scares me
Have not got enough against him
But he is short enough the price

Going to play it this way

Selection

£3.00 Each Way ZAIN BLUE 10/1-9/1

£4.00 Place Bet PER CONTRA 6/4

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







York 4.30

7/4 Almeraq, 7/2 Prince Of India, 6/1 Lethal Levi
8/1 Kassaya, 9/1 Elmonjed, 14/1 Stormy Impact
16/1 Grand Grey, Tiger Bay, 20/1 Crestofdistinction
20/1 Royal Zabeel, 33/1 Pellitory.
   
Garrowby Stakes

Listed race 6f
 
13 Past renewals
 
Looks like a 4 horse race

ALMERAQ has 4 runs
Short priced sexy improver

There are some questions
Not had a race in 48 days
 
The last 11 winners of this
All ran in the previous 29 days

His 3 rivals
Have more experience
Have more recent runs
May not stop her winning

The Hopeful stakes  a good trial
Horses from there won this race
In 2014 2015 2018 and 2024
 
LETHAL LEVI won that race 

ELMONJED finished in 2nd

LETHAL LEVI is a 6 year old
He's ran just once in 71 days
That bothers me just a little
As a very exposed older horse
Who's drtawn higher than most
Higher than all of his dangers
No horse has won this race
Drawn higher than stall 7 before

12 of the 13 past winners
Were drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4-5 
He might win but not my choice
  
Past renewals show
Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 2 months
Have a 0-35 record in this
LETHAL LEVI fails this stat
ALMERAQ does as well
 
ELMONJED is a positive
Tempted each way around 7/1
But he looks the stable 2nd string
ALMERAQ looks the first choice

ELMONJED should still go close

PRINCE OF INDIA is a positive
Not a stable I like to trust a lot
But he has some smart form

ALMERAQ though has potential
If there is a Group 1 horse in this
He would be the one with potential

Not worried about a 48 day break
Decided to split stake this race
With both of the Haggas horses

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet ALMERAQ 11/8-6/4

£5.00 Place Bet ELMONJED 1/1






York 5.00

5/2 Revelance, 4/1 Seren Star, 11/2 Wonderbolt
8/1 Folkene, Zapphire, 9/1 Rhapsody, 12/1 Orange Sky
14/1 Epidavros, 20/1 Laura Bay, Royalty Bay.

Fillies Handicap 9f

No past renewals

These races tend to be won
By younger horses aged 3 or 4

ZAPPHIRE is the only older horse
She carries the most weight as well

September
8f-9f Fillies Handicaps
With over 4 runners
Horses aged 5 or more
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-46 record in them
ZAPPHIRE would be first to win

Expecting a younger winner

LAURA BAY is underaced
ORANGE SKY looks unsafe
Mixing weight and an absence

ROYALTY BAY is resistible
She's just downgraded yards

FOLKENE is going up in class
Coming from the widest draw

WONDERBOLT is interesting
Comes here trying a hat trick
But she is going up 2 grades

RHAPODY is also up in class
She looks a stable 2nd string

SEREN STAR
RELEVANCE

Both a very similar

Won handicaps last time
Both started odds on in them
Both have 4 career starts
Both have the same weight

Statistically both positives
My angles can't split them
Although if I pushed them
RELEVANCE may be helped
By having the longer absence 
RELEVANCE looks stronger

One of the reasons for that

SEREN STAR is a bit small
She looks undersized to me
She may still go and win this
But her size does put me off
Not sure if she has much scope

WONDERBOLT a saver option

RELEVANCE is a that saver
  
EPIDAVROS is a 4yo
She is exposed with 19 runs
Can't be sure she has the class
But she has a very recent run
And on her best form could win

I wanted to go each way
And have a saver bet as well
But the prices have shortened
EPIDAVROS 14/1 down to 9/1
So reluctantly a win and saver

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet EPIDAVROS 9/1

£3.00 Win Bet RELEVANCE 5/2-9/4


 
 


York 5.30

7/2 Earthwatch, 7/1 Barley, 9/1 Double Parked
10/1 Billyb, 10/1 Commander Of Life, 12/1 Feel The Need
12/1 Hale End, 12/1 Harswell Ruby, 14/1 Lir Speciale
14/1 Theme Park, 16/1 Bowen Island, 16/1 Obelix
16/1 Onemorenomore, Rajapour, 20/1 Canvas
20/1 Zryan, 25/1 Tropez Power.

8f Handicap

Apprentice Riders

No past renewals

Few Apprentice races

Are run in this high a class
So just don't trust my angles

Go back to 2000
York 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses under 4
Drawn 10 or higher
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-76 record in them

EARTHWATCH fails this angle

Given ground/field size

I'd see these as underraced

ONEMORENOMORE
BOWEN ISLAND
ZYRAN
TROPEZ POWER
RAJAPOUR

HALE END has the highest draw
COMMANDER OF LIFE a 4yo
Is up in class and not well drawn

Not too sure how this will work out

Go back to 1997

York 7f handicaps
With under 18 runners
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 2-3-4-5
Over 12 career starts
Drawn 13 or higher
Return a 0-59 record
The following fail this

HALE END
COMMANDER OF LIFE
THEME PARK
ONEMORENOMORE

OBELIX is topweight
Not really running well enough
CANVAS is rejected down 4f
HARSWELL RUBY is a 3yo filly
Looks too exposed with 16 runs

LIR SPECIALE not first choice

BILLY B has ran once in 6 weeks
FEEL THE NEED once in 6 weeks

That is perfectly fine

But in the same period of time
They have raced only once

DOUBLE PARKED ran 3 times

BARLEY has raced 4 times

Have a slight concern
His record in big fields is poor
All 22 times he faced one he lost
And he has a 7lbs claimer riding

DOUBLE PARKED is only a 3yo

But has momentum
He has a recent win
One of the fitter profiles
And we get 1-2-3-4-5 places
Going to split stake this


Selection

DOUBLE PARKED 7/1-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


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