4 Previews 
0 Account Bet
  



Tomorrow's Message

Will be early around 9.30

 


Final Deliberations  



First message of the week 
Full of higher quality racing

Galway begins this evening
Goodwood follows tomorrow




4 Previews 
2 Ayr
2 Galway

The afternoon cards lack quality
Limited to what we can do today
Most of Galway is out of bounds

The Ayr previews are sensible

Hopefully we can get something



Decided to target two races

Try to get a good price winner


Galway 6.40 

£8.00 Win Bet TOLL STONE 4/1-9/2
 
£2.00 Win Bet  TOO BOSSY FOR US 4/1

My original strategy in this race
Toll Stone each way around 8/1
When I was typing this at 3am
There was no shortage of 8/1  
Every bookmaker offering that
But the horses has shortened
Not helped by the press article
That highlights his big chance
So I've decided to go win only
And have a saver bet instead
Now it is a less interesting bet



So instead

Making this my best bet

By far the hardest race today

But my angles point his way


 
Galway 7.15 

GREEN ICON 11/1-12/1-14/1 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4









Preview Selections

Ayr 3.00 
£5.00 Win Bet Benacre 15/2-7/1 
£5.00 Place Bet  Boy Douglas 10/11-4/5
 
Ayr 3.30
John L Sullivan 5/1
Each Way

Galway 6.40
£8.00 Win Bet Toll Stone 4/1-9/2
£2.00 Win Bet  Too Bossy For Us  4/1

Galway 7.15 
Green Icon 11/1-12/1-14/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4







 
Yesterday's Summary

Sunday had just 2 meetings
Managed only the 5 previews 
These finished up P L L L W
Started off with a saver winner
Pure Gold well worth including
Auntie Maggie ran really well
The narrative almost worked
Tried to steal it from the front
Hard to get the fractions right
Got caught by one very late
Suffered two losers after that
But we got a winner in the last
Rain Cap delivered very easily
Left us about level on the day
Nothing special average stuff
But if offered a break level day
Would've taken it beforehand 



 


 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS


 

Ayr 3.00
 
5/2 Kelpie Grey, 5/1 Boy Douglas, 11/2 Redarna
8/1 Abduction, 8/1 Benacre, 9/1 Jkr Cobbler
10/1 Count Palatine, Silent Move, 16/1 Animate
20/1 Sli Na Ghealai.

7f handicap

Horses rated 0-81

SILENT MORE is topweight
Tough weight for any horse
Wist just 1 run in 159 days

KELPIE GREY the favourite
Has a similar problem as well
Only raced once in 324 days

Similar 7f handicaps in July
Horses aged 5
Over 14 career runs
Just 1 run in several months
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-32 record in them
KELPIE GREY has this profile

REDARNA is 11 years old
Not safe without a recent run

SLI NA GHEALAI underaced
ANIMATE not doing enough

COUNT PALESTINE a 4yo
Has the widest draw of these
May not be able to win yet

ABDUCTION has a chance
But a 7 year old up in trip
Without a run in over 3 weeks

Go back to 2000
July
7f handicaps
With over 7 runners
Horses aged 7 or older
Coming from 6f or shorter
Absent over 15 days
Carrying 8st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-67 record in them
ABDUCTION fails this angle

JKR COBBLER is unsafe
As a very exposed 6 year old
With just 2 runs in several months
Needed at least another recent run

Shortlist

BOY DOUGLAS is a 5yo
He won over a mile last week
The 2023 winner of this similar

BENACRE is also a positive

Not easy to split them

Multiple staking options

Decided to go this way


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet BENACRE 15/2-7/1

£5.00 Place Bet BOY DOUGLAS 10/11-4/5








Ayr 3.30

11/10 Jannas Journey, 9/2 Cooperation
9/2 John L Sullivan, 13/2 Jewel Maker, 10/1 Golden Valour
16/1 Trais Fluors, 25/1 Yellow Lemons
33/1 Yellow Pages.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

JOHN L SULLIVAN is topweight

Class horse in the race
Looks well placed here

Rated 65 facing a 0-63 officially
But it is more like a 0-61 contest
 
Most of his recent races
Were in higher class races
Ran in a 0-74 race here last time
He raced at the back of the field
Stayed on nicely into 5th place 
His previous run at Chester
Drawn 11/11 in a higher grade

Don't see many to scare us

COPERATION is a 7yo
Up in trip but not ruled out
But has recently downgraded yards

JEWEL MAKER is now a 10yo

GOLDEN VALOUR a 9yo rated 52

JANNAS JOURNEY can win
She is a 4yo filly on a hat trick
But she is going up in distance
Having won just 7 days ago
Not the safest of profiles

July to December
Handicaps over 8f
Class 6 races
Fillies aged 4
Under 15 career runs
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within 2 weeks
Carrying 8st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-24 record so far
JANNAS JOURNEY fails this

Inconclusive profile
As only 1 like her won last time
That horse finished in 2nd place
I'd see her profile neutral-unproven
Not enough to bet her at odds on

Going with the class horse

Which looks the percentage bet 

Selection

JOHN L SULLIVAN 5/1

Each Way








Galway 6.40

5/1 Comfort Zone, Too Bossy For Us, 13/2 Toll Stone
7/1 War Rooms, 15/2 Familiar Dreams, 12/1 Riviera Queen
12/1 Royal Hollow, The Shunter, 14/1 Westminster Moon
14/1 Zoffman, 16/1 Falcon Eight, 16/1 Filey Bay
16/1 Plontier, 16/1 Ragmans Corner, 20/1 Dawn Rising
25/1 Fairbanks, 25/1 God Of Thunder, 25/1 Mon Coeur
33/1 Weston, 50/1 Wahraan.

Handicap 2m 1f

Horses rated 0-100
 
May be a bit too ambitious
But there are some angles
  
This is a lightweights race

Go back to the 2010 renewal
Horses with 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-82 record in this race
 
WAR ROOM has 12 stone
May be too much for a 4 year old
Who is stepping up over 4f in trip

THE SHUNTER is a 12 year old
Has months off and a big weight

COMFORT ZONE has 11st 10lbs
He fails the 0-82 weight statistic
He comes from a sire in Churchill
Who has bred no winners over 17f
Bred none on soft over 2m or more

Other high weights
Who look hard to make a case for

FAIRBANKS
DAWN RISING
FALCON EIGHT

Horses aged 8 or older
Have a weak 1-59 record

Horses aged 7 or older
Carrying 10st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-97 record in this

Against these older horses

PLONTIER
MON COEUR
WAHRAAN

FILEY BAY is a 9yo
He's ran just once since 2023

ROYAL HOLLOW is a 7yo
She is also a mare drawn 22
Thats the widest draw in this
Wider than any past winners
ZOFFMAN is a 6yo
Not ruled out just prefer others

Possibles

RIVIERA QUEEN is a 4yo filly
Fillies do quite well in this race
None had her weight (11st 5lbs)
We could forgive him the weight
Her sire has not yet bred a winner
Beyond 2 miles when softer (0-18)

RAGMANS CORNER is a 6yo
Underwhelming on the one hand
But fit running well and will stay
It would be foolish to rule him out
But he is only a smaller horse

WESTMINSTER MOON a 5yo
Steps up from a 1m 4f race
Seems popular in the market
Expensive German purchase
Starting to look well handicapped
Will smell to some like a "job horse"
For me the trainer is overated
Has to prove him stamina here
Her sire has not yet bred a winner
Beyond 2 miles when softer (0-14)
 
FAMILIAR DREAM is a 6yo mare
Not too put off my her 89 day break
Many past winners had absences
One of them (2019) had 59 days off
She's won 3 of her 7 career victories
Having breaks of 134 64 86 days
She has some very smart hurdle form
Asking a lot on soft with her weight
But she would be my third choice

TOO BOSSY FOR US

Willie Mullins 4 year old
Have to be very careful
Before we oppose him
He has question marks

He has 11st 8lbs
More than any past winner

He's ran once in 86 days

Stall 20 could test him too

Go back to 2011
Galway 2m handicaps
No horse under 5 years old
When absent over 15 days
Has won drawn 12 or higher
All 35 that tried were beaten
TOO BOSSY FOR US fails this
Could easily win from Mullins
But there are some concerns


TOLL STONE is 5 years old
Raced just once in 253 days
That would be a concern to me
But the stable won this in 2003
With a horse doing just the same
Stable often lay one out at Galway
He won at last years festival too
Winning off a long break 124 days
He just looks laid out to win this


Selection

£8.00 Win Bet TOLL STONE 4/1-9/2
 
£2.00 Win Bet  TOO BOSSY FOR US 4/1







Galway 7.15

9/2 Aviatrice, 6/1 Highbury See See
6/1 Honeysuckle Rose 7/1 It'sneverjustone, 8/1 Nyman
8/1 Oiche Rua, 8/1 Sun Soldier, 10/1 Bishopton
10/1 Ze Do Asfalto, 12/1 Fiona Maccoul, Sir Jeremy
14/1 Gangsta Man, 14/1 Green Icon, 20/1 Gloriously Glam
20/1 Wizard Of Odds 
 
3yo Handicap 7f

Horses rated 0-81

WIZARD OF ODDS is topweight

High weights rarely win this race
The two that did had recent runs
Both of them ran within 5 days

Past renewals show

Horses with 9st 11lbs or more
Absent more than just 5 days
Have a 0-35 record in this race
The following horses fail this

WIZARD OR ODDS
GLORIOUSLY GLAM
AVIATRICE
IT'SNEVERJUSTONE
HONEYSUCKLE ROSE

SUN SOLDIER has 3 runs
Hard to like with a high draw

Galway
7f handicaps
All year round
Since 2011
Horses aged 3 or more
Under 7 career starts
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a poor 1-73 record 
SUN SOLIDIER fails this

ZE DO ASFALTO is underraced

FIONA MACCOUL the same issue
She is a filly with 56 days absence

Go back to 2011
Galway
7f Handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Open to both sexes
3 year old fillies
More than 3 career starts
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 0-60 record
The following horses fail this

FIONA MACCOUL 
NIGHT MAGIC
MOTHER MARA
HONEYSUCKLE ROSE

Past renewals show
Fillies with under 6 runs
Have a 0-23 record in this
The following horses fail this

NIGHT MAGIC
HONEYSUCKLE ROSE
SPANISH TEMPTRESS
 
BISHOPTON is rated 71
Would prefer something classier

I'd want a good recent run
Past renewals show us
Horses running within 7 weeks
Beaten 10 + lengths last time
Have a 0-42 record in this
The following horses fail this

SIR JEREMY
BISHOPTON
GLORIOUSLY GLAM

HIGHBURY SEE SEE has 5 runs
Won last time out but 43 days ago

Past renewals show
Horses with under 6 runs
Running this season
Have a 0-44 record
The following horses fail this

HIGHBURY SEE SEE 
NIGHT MAGIC
HONEYSUCKLE ROSE
SPANISH TEMPTRESS

GANGSTA MAN has  65 days off
May be too exposed with 13 runs
To be defying that length of break

Shortlist

NYMAN ran well just 2 days ago
That gets him on the shortlist
But has an inexperienced jockey

OICHE RUA has some positives
But is taking on a better grade now

GREEN ICON passes my angles
Has some substance to his form
And some recent excuses too

 Selection

GREEN ICON 11/1-12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4



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