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Final Deliberations
 
Endured a poor couple of days
Racing's been limited this week
Which is not entirely surprising 
Post Goodwood and Pre York
The quality has dipped this week

Saturday message tomorrow
Aiming for an account bet winner
Will be a much stronger message



Lot of small fields today

Found only 4 races I liked

There is a mares hurdle tonight
Which looked rather interesting

 
Tramore 6.45  

£8.00 Win Bet BALLYCASHIN 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet PAUL'S DREAM 7/2-4/1


Truth is the staking is hard to judge
Could have gone each way instead




Also like the Listed race at Newbury



Newbury 4.45 

£3.00 Each Way LOPE EL FUEGO 10/1-9/1

£4.00 Win Bet FLOWERHEAD 6/4

Staking is more understandable
There is some safety in the bet
Needs to be as the main horse
Does need to improve to win it

Some firms 1-2-3 but others 1-2-3-4
Obviously the 4th place is valuable





Like both races

The other 2 races have chances

Going to attack more tomorrow

Going back onto the account







Preview Selections
 
Dundalk 2.55
£7.00 Win Bet Gordon Bennett 15/2-8/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Comfort Line 7/1-15/2  
£1.50 Win Bet Never Shout Never 5/1

Newbury 4.45 
£3.00 Each Way Lope El Fuego 10/1-9/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Flowerhead 6/4

Newbury 5.20 
£6.00 Win Bet Winston's Warrior 9/2-5/1
£2.00 Win Bet Forever My Prince 9/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Mythical Composer 100/3-7/2

Tramore 6.45 
£8.00 Win Bet Ballycashin 7/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Paul's Dream 7/2-4/1








Yesterday's Summary
 
The message did not deliver
Decided on an each way double
Amiata let us down in 2nd leg
One or two quite close finishes
But only managed a place saver
Never felt we had many options
What we had overall disappointed


 
 




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Dundalk 2.55

9/2 Late Night Talking, 5/1 Ze Do Asfalto, 11/2 Bucaneer's Spirit
6/1 Dontspoilasale, 7/1 Comfort Line, 15/2 Gordon Bennett
8/1 Eyema Candy Girl, 8/1 Never Shout Never, 20/1 Shigar
20/1 Una Matata, 25/1 Benavente, 33/1 One More Wave
33/1 Temple City.

Claiming race 7f

Looked at every Claimer
Run in August over 7 furlongs

Horses with under 10 runs
Have a 0-74 record in them
Couple of reserves fail this
So do the following horses

ZE DO ASFALTO 
EYEMA CANDY GIRL

ZE DO ASFALTO is a 3yo
Ran just the once in 126 days

EYEMA CANDY GIRL a 5yo mare
Has only raced 5 times before
Could easily win from Joseph
But she is very unorthodox

Horses with just the 1 run
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 0-30 record in them
The following horses fail

ZE DO ASFALTO
BENAVENTA

SHIGAR isn't doing enough
ONE MORE WAVE hard to like

DONTSPOILASALE a 5 year old
Rejected with 147 days off

LATE NIGHT TALKING a 4yo
Has 200 long days off the track 

Shortlist

NEVER SHOUT NEVER 5/1
GORDON BENNETT 15/2
COMFORT LINE  7/1
BUCANNEER'S SPIRIT 11/2


BUCANNEER'S SPIRIT is a 4yo
Youngest horse on the shortlist
Dropping in trip with 2 days off
Makes him a difficult horse to read

NEVER SHOUT NEVER a 5yo
Has never raced over 7f before
May well be what he wants now
But unproven and up in distance

COMFORT LINE oldest on shortlist
Has enough solid runs to go close

GORDON BENNETT rated 69
Gives weight to higher rated horses
But he is better than his 69 rating
And has had recent bad draws

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet GORDON BENNETT 15/2-8/1

£1.50 Win Bet COMFORT LINE 7/1-15/2 

£1.50 Win Bet NEVER SHOUT NEVER 5/1






Newbury 4.45

5/2 Flowerhead, 6/1 Entailed
13/2 Killavia 8/1 Daneh Of Dandy, 9/1 Wateen
10/1 Hollywood Treasure 10/1 Our Cody, Sapphire Steps
14/1 Duskaura, 16/1 Solana Rose, 16/1 Lope El Fuego,
25/1 Palmeira, 33/1 Little Jaybee.

St Hugh's Stakes

5f Listed race

2yo Fillies 

Racing Post Ratings show

FLOWERHEAD is well clear
Comes from the best trial race

But is drawn in stall 14 of 14
She has the worst draw  

The last 26 winners of this
All won  from stalls 1 to 11    
 
Go back to 2005
Newbury 5f races
Under 18 runners
Horses with under 9 runs
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Have a 0-56 record in then
FLOWERHEAD fails this

So do the following horses

ENTAILED
DANEH OF DANDY

Non runners could affect that
 
Go back to 2005
Newbury 5f races
Under 18 runners
Horses with under 4 runs
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 0-54 record 
ENTAILED fails this as well

ENTAILED has ran twice
Only has an 8 day absence

Go back to 2000
July to December
Pattern races over 5f and 6f
With over 10 runners
Horses with under 3 runs
Running within 11 days
Have a 0-36 record in them
Not compelling but none won

ENTAILED would be the first
SAPPHIRE STEPS would too

The last 28 winners of this
All ran within the last 58 days

HOLLYWOOD TREASURE 
Comes here with 136 days off
DUSKAURA figures are too low
SOLANA ROSE no momentum

KILAVIA is shortlisted
 
The favourite despite the draw
Would not be a surprise winner

There are now 3 non runners
That helps the favourite's draw

KILLAVIA is now a non runner
He was my main selection

Damages the draw statistics too

LOPE EL FUEGO is interesting

Does have a bit to find here
But won here on second start
His defeat at Salisbury last time
May well have a valid reason
One of two front runners there
Pace collapsed went too hard
Beaten only in a 3 way photo

Now going with this selection

Selection

£3.00 Each Way LOPE EL FUEGO 10/1-9/1

£4.00 Win Bet FLOWERHEAD 6/4







Newbury 5.20

7/2 She's The Duchess, 9/2 Forever My Prince
9/2  Mythical Composer, 11/2 Winston's Warrior, 6/1 Calyxoh
7/1 Sunshine Mag, 12/1 Youarenotforgiven, 14/1 Kalahari Blue
16/1 Mapledurham, 25/1 Bear Force One.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-80

MYTHICAL COMPOSER rated 80

Looks sprint bred with topweight
She recently tried 7f for the first time
Did not convince that she stays 7f
This faster ground should help her
But there remains a stamina doubt

Some of these hard to believe in

BEAT FORCE ONE is underraced

CALYXOH has ran once in 321 days

KALAHARI BLUE is a 3 year old filly
Up in distance and has 53 days off

MAPLEDURHAM is rated only 63
Every other horse rated far higher

SUNSHINE MAG is a 3 year old
Only has the 4 career starts so far
Bit raw having his first handicap run

YOUARENOTFORGIVEN is a 7yo
Just the 2 races in over 6 months
May just be vulnerable to youngsters

SHE'S THE DUCHESS is a filly
Raced just the once in 62 days
Plenty of weight with 9st 7lbs
Should go well but not like a winner
And has the widest draw 10 or 10

Go back to 1997
Newbury 7f handicaps
Under 11 runners
Horses aged 3 or older
Drawn 10 of 10 are 0-21
SHE'S THE DUCHESS fails this

Go back to 2004
Newbury 7f handicaps
Under 12 runners
Horses aged 3 or older
Under 13 career starts
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-36 record
SHE'S THE DUCHESS fails this
 
 
Shortlisting these

FOREVER MY PRINCE

WINSTON'S WARRIOR

Both met last time out
 
WINSTON'S WARRIOR started shorter
Did not have the run of the race

Split staking this race

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet WINSTON'S WARRIOR 9/2-5/1

£2.00 Win Bet  FOREVER MY PRINCE 9/2

£2.00 Win Bet MYTHICAL COMPOSER 7/2-100/30







Tramore 6.45

100/30 A Snow White Park, 4/1 Paul's Dream
5/1 Onebrightbluerose, 7/1 Tingarran Express
17/2 Eve's Hope, 10/1 Ballycashin, 12/1 Tasmanian Girl
14/1 Polly Poppins, Stumblin In, 16/1 Miss Maxfort
25/1 Sea Of Doubt.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m

Horses rated 0-110

BALLYCASHIN is topweight
Joing oldest horse in the race
A race whose history shows us
Horses with 11st 7lbs or more

Have a 0-20 record in them
That may well be misleading

His highest rated dangers

A Snow White Park
Eve's Hope
Miss Maxfort

All have far more to prove
Get those 3 horses beaten

BALLYCASHIN rated 110
Only faces a 0-98 class field
He may be able to outclass them


A SNOW WHITE PARK a 4yo
Has raced only twice before

Go back to 2007
August to November
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
With over 5 runners
Horses aged 4
Under 5 career starts
Return a poor 1-81 record
A SNOW WHITE PARK fails this

Every past winner
Had at least 2 recent runs

EVE'S HOPE does not have this
Beaten 36 lengths in a chase
Only 10 days ago is not tempting
MISS MAXFORT a similar issue
Beaten a long way 9 days ago

Others with poor recent runs

TASMANIAN GIRL
SEA OF DOUBT
STUMBLIN IN

STUMBLIN IN ran 7 days ago
Beaten 37 lengths over 3 miles
Drops down a mile in distance
Thats too radical a profile
POLLY POPPINS doesn't appeal
  
ONEBRIGHTBLUEROSE 35 runs

TINGARRAN EXPRESS 34 runs

PAUL'S DREAM 7 runs
 
Go back to 2007
July August September October
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or shorter
With over 7 runners
Horses with over 29 runs
And over 19 hurdle runs
Return a 0-62 record
The following both fail this

ONEBRIGHTBLUEROSE
TINGARRAN EXPRESS

PAUL'S DREAM

Still a bit on the raw side
Could improve past both
Going to make him a saver
To the topweight in the race


Selection

£8.00 Win Bet BALLYCASHIN 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet PAUL'S DREAM 7/2-4/1



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