Mathematician 5244
Monday Dec 8th

3 Previews
0 Account Bet
 
  




Final Deliberations



Been a decent weekend
Starting to make mistakes
So going to drop Tuesday



No Message Tomorrow



3 Previews
2 Musselburgh 
1 Lingfield



Strangely all win bets



Musselburgh 1.15 
Newport 11/10 
Win Bet

Musselburgh 2.15 
You Did 7/2 
Win Bet 

Lingfield 3.07
Tortured Soul 3/1 
Win Bet


Could be an idea to have
Some each way doubles
Or other multiple options

YOU DID is in a race
That now has just 7 runners
So that avenue is closed off

TORTURED SOUL at Lingfield
I felt was the weakest of three
Mainly because of the track

The Lingfield card is ruthless
Dare not press too hard there
Suspect that it would beat us
  
Interesting angles in all 3 races 
Prices are nothing to brag about


Today's Best Bet

Plan A was Network as a win bet

But very annoyed he's shortened

So decided to have a Novelty bet






Today's Best Bet

 £5 Win Single
£5 Win Double


Musselburgh 1.15 NEWPORT 1/1-11/10 

£5.00 Win Single


Musselburgh 1.15 NEWPORT 1/1-11/10 

Musselburgh 2.15 YOU DID 7/2

£5.00 Win Double 





Was not the bet I wanted

But spoiled prices are sadly usual

You could have an each way treble

Doubt all will win but it pays 33/1 +








 
Preview Selections 
 
Musselburgh 1.15 
Newport 1/1-11/10 
Win Bet

Musselburgh 2.15 
You Did 7/2 
Win Bet 

Lingfield 3.07
Tortured Soul 3/1 
Win Bet








Yesterday's Summary

Sunday had 4 previews
They finished W L P P
First 3 races played out
Level going into the last
In the Borders National
Messed up the staking
Got place terms wrong
Sorry again for doing it
Very embarrassing error
Didn't matter in the end
Breeze Of Wind placed
As he Returned at 25/1 
We made a small profit 
Calling that a placed bet
I'm annoyed with myself
Sandy Thomson won it
With a big 22/1 outsider 
With hindsight that horse
Was rejected too quickly
Good effort on a hard day
But not much profit in it








PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 



Musselburgh 1.15

3/1 Newport, 9/2 Magic Gloves, 5/1 Crimson Road
11/2 Bunker Bay, 7/1 Gonnino, 8/1 Romancier
10/1 Rightbackatyou, 14/1 Madame Pomone
25/1 Breadalbane Lass, 66/1 King Gold Boy.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m

GONNINO is topweight 

Raced just once in 6 months
He pulled up in that one race
Find it difficult to forgive that
From an smaller stable

MAGIC GLOVES is a filly
She has had just 2 races

Go back to 2007
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 5 career races
Absent more than 46 days
Have a poor 1-145 record
Since 2012 they are 0-89
MAGIC GLOVES fails this 
She is also a filly as well

BREADALBANE LASS is unsafe
Didn't do enough on seasonal debut
KING GOLD BOY likewise

MADAME POMONE a 3yo filly
Just looks too inexperienced

ROMANCIER is a 4yo
Just 4 previous runs so far
Can not make him a negative
But he has plenty of weight
Beaten 29 lengths last time
When 80/1 in a maiden hurdle
Cheap enough horse not for me

CRIMSON ROAD is a 4yo

Just the 3 hurdle runs

But had 16 races on the flat
Not sure that is the right type

Go back to 2009
December
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 4
More than 15 career runs
But under 8 hurdle races
Absent more than 15 days
Return a 0-33 record in them
CRIMSON ROAD shares this profile

BUNKER BAY is a 6yo
Last 11 months running on the flat
Hadb 5 hurdle runs prior to that
Modest runs all 12/1 and bigger

Go back to 2009
November and December
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Class 3 and lower
Any distance
Horses aged 6 or more
Over 15 runs on the flat
Running this season
But absent over 33 days
Return a 0-54 record
BUNKER BAY fails this angle

RIGHTBACKATYOU is a 7yo
Lightly raced with just 5 runs
Beaten miles at 300/1 last time
Not enough positives to select


NEWPORT

Has a 0-22 career record

Has a 0-15 hurdle record

He is fit and running well

I suspect over further than ideal
Starspangledbanner is not a sire
To trust over distances past 2m

Hurdlers
Sired by Starspangledbanner 
Running over 2m 2f and more
Have yet to win all 42 lost

Half his hurdle races
Have been over 2m 2f and more

His last 2 races
Have been over 2m 4f

His last 5 runs
Over distances his sire
Has never bred a winner over

This trip should be what he needs

Selection

NEWPORT 1/1-11/10

Win Bet







Musselburgh 2.15

11/4 You Did, 7/2 Slievehill, 5/1 Artic Mann
5/1 Travis Wheatley, 15/2 Star Vantage, 9/1 Leader Wing
12/1 Coral Blue, 14/1 Cage Rattler.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Horses rated 0-103

Small race big angles

TRAVIS WHEATLEY is topweight
He comes from a 2 mile hurdle
Steps up a mile in distance here

SLIEVEHILL does the same thing

Go back to 1997
December
Handicap Hurdles over 3m
Horses with 1 run in months
Coming from 2m hurdle races
Running in the last 38 days
Return a 0-54 record in them
TRAVIS WHEATLEY fails this

Go back to 1997
June to December
Handicap Hurdles over 3m
Horses aged 8 and older
Coming from 2m hurdle races
Carrying 10st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-118 record in them
SLIEVEHILL fails this angle

ARCTIC MAN is 11 years old
CORAL BLUE is 10 years old

Both of these horses
Ran over 2m 5f last time out

Go back to 1998
December
Handicap Hurdles over 3m
Horses aged 10 or older
Coming from races under 2m 7f
Absent longer than 18 days
Return a 0-99 record in them

ARCTIC MAN  fails this
CORAL BLUE fails this
 
CAGE RATTLER an exposed 5yo
Has modest figures may not stay
Sire has bred no winners past 2m 4f

LEADER WING is another 5yo
Modest figures weak on sire stats

STAR VANTAGE is an 8yo
He has a 0-28 career record 
Not too bothered about that
Lost a couple of photo finishes 
And is a guaranteed stayer
But very exposed horses like him
Are not the best of options
He's ran just once in 66 days
Fails a complicated angle

December
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
With over 3 runners
Horses with over 18 hurdle runs
Rafcing just 1 run in 8 weeks
Running in the last 15 days
Return a poor 0-113 record
STAR VANTAGE has this profile

SLIEVEHILL is now a non runner

YOU DID

Lightly raced 5 year old

With enough experience

He is fit and running well

He needs to improve to win

Not by much but he has to

None of his rivals appeal
They all fail testing angles

Selection

YOU DID 100/30-7/2

Win Bet








Lingfield 3.07

5/2 Amber Honey, 100/30 Tortured Soul, 5/1 Beta Reader
5/1 Silkies Sib, 11/2 Ghaiyyath Park, 12/1 Saturnalia
20/1 Enough Already, Haveagobeau, 66/1 Hannahs Story
66/1 Luisa.

10f Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

AMBER HONEY is a 3yo filly
She is up in distance from 7f to 10f

GHAIYYATH PARK another 3yo filly
Does the same thing going up 3 furlongs

Go back to 2007
December
10f handicaps
Any horse aged 3
Coming from 7f or shorter
Return a 0-51 record so far
The following horses fail this

GHAIYYATH PARK 
AMBER HONEY

HAVEAGOBEAU is a 6 year old
Hard to like scoring low numbers

ENOUGH ALREADY is a 9 year old
Easily the oldest horse in the race
And rejected with 59 days absence

SATURNALIA has 140 days break
Hard to trust from a weaker stable

SILKIES SIB is a 5 year old
He has just upgraded stables
Finished last on his stable debut
Had excuses and was eased down
But still beaten a long way there
Feels too much of a leap of faith

BETA READER is 3 years old
First run for a new stable today
Having been sold for 10k recently

Not comfortable with his profile
3 year old with 13 career races
Having a 44 days absence as well

November and December
10f Handicaps in this class
Horses aged 3
Over 9 lifetime race
Absent over 32 days
Return a 0-66 record
So have won at other trips
None thought at this distance
BETA READER fails this

TORTURED SOUL is topweight

May be able to outclass these

He is unexposed over this trip
Can't be sure that it will suit him
But the drop in class surely will

His last 14 runs
All came in higher grades
Now drops into a Class 6 race
His Class 6 record is excellent
With 6 winners from 8 attempts

Selection

TORTURED SOUL 3/1

Win Bet

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