6 Previews
1 Account Bet 
  
 

Account Bet 


Newmarket 5.45

£4.00 Each Way DARK CLOUD RISING  9/1-10/1 

£2.00 Win Bet MARCHOGION 4/1







Final Deliberations


6 Previews

There was a choice of bets

 
Newmarket 4.45 

YAASER 11/4-5/2 

Win Bet


  
Newmarket 5.45

£4.00 Each Way DARK CLOUD RISING  9/1-10/1 

£2.00 Win Bet MARCHOGION 4/1



  
Otherwise it feels rather trappy
Technically yesterdays message
Was much more accomplished
Naas has a complicated card
Newmarket is rarely generous

 
DARK CLOUD RISING

Has drifted in the market
Which does raise doubts
Could be a ground issue
Fastest he has raced on
Had missed it as an issue

Doesn't mean he wont like it
  

YASSER excites me more
 
Frustrated by one thing
He may only priced 5/2-114
But there are 1-2-3-4 places
I much prefer him each way
Thats my best bet of the day

But not very customer friendly
Would not take much to happen
To make the bet look ridiculous
Still confident as a win selection

He absolutely bolted up at Ayr
Last time he was badly drawn
Comes out just 2 days later

If he runs his race
Does not get unlucky in running
He should have too much for them

Probably should switch to Yaaser 


But staying with Dark Cloud Rising 
With a valuable saver bet onside









Preview Selections
 
Naas 2.00 
£7.00 Win Bet  Neo Smart  4/1
£3.00 Win Bet  Independent Expert 5/2

Naas 2.32 
Copacabana Sands 7/2
Each Way 
 
Naas 3.02 
Mississippi River 4/5-10/11
Win Bet

Newmarket 4.15  
Spring Is Sprung 4/1 
Each Way 
  
Newmarket 4.45 
Yaaser 11/4-5/2 
Win Bet

Newmarket 5.45 
£4.00 Each Way Dark Cloud Rising 9/1-10/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Marchogion 4/1








Yesterday's Summary
 
Newbury dominated message
Quite a strange lack of variety
But we did ok with what we had
Witch Hunter was a non runner
The saver bet did win the race
But won't count it on the scores
Message finished L W W L P
Got nothing from the first race
Annoying as the winner was fine
We got both the favourites beat
Symbol Of Honour won the next
Gambled and in a split stake
But returned us a modest profit
Enough to get us back in front
Saddadd then extended the lead
Decent winner in a major race
Notable Speech finished in 4th
Expected better and a setback 
Think the draw probably hurt him 
My breeding stays were crowing
Getting Rosallion well beaten
But we came out losing despite it
Run Boy Run was the best option
One i considered for the account
3 non runners turned me off that
In the end it did not matter at all
He ran really well placed second
The winner was obviously helped
By the 3 non runners coming out
It made his low draw manageable
That felt a good quality message
But it was short and lacked variety
Maybe not planned particularly well
But what little we ended up with
Delivered a non losing message
On paper we had a healthy profit
Marked down with no account bet
But nobody would have lost on it

 
 




 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS 




 
 
Naas 2.00

7/2 Instant Appeal, 4/1 Killeaney Bear
4/1 Independent Expert 11/2 Neo Smart, 6/1 Monasterboice
6/1 Nakasero, 10/1 Cheers Again, 10/1 Grey Leader

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-92
 
MONASTERBOICE is a 4yo
Topweight carrying 10st 2lbs
Just 1 bad run this season
Can not have him winning 
Weak on sire statistics as well

Horses sired by Mehmas
Running ove 8f +
Class 3 and higher
Absent more than 41 days
Return a 0-41 record
MONASTERBOICE next to try

GREY LEADER is rejected
His sires runners over 7f +
Running in class 4 or more
Have only won with short breaks
None won absent over 56 days
GREY LEADER has 287 days off
 
KILEAMNEY BEAR

Very strangely for an 8f race  
He comes from a recent hurdle 

Go back to 2002 
8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses who last time out
Ran in a National Hunt race
In the previous 15 days
Have a vicious 1-215 record
During March to August
All 172 that tried were beaten
Admittedly many were outsiders
But no horse has managed it 
KILEAMNEY BEAR fails this
  
INSTANT APPEAL has 4 runs
Just 1 run this season over 10f
Just 1 run since September 2023
That is highly risky as a profile


NAKASERO

Profile is fine
First run for Henry De Bromhead
If he is ready he could easily win
Considered him as the saver bet
But no market support for him


INDEPENDENT EXPERT

CHEERS AGAIN

Both 6 year olds
Both up in distance
Not perfect but some win
There are riskier options

NEO SMART is a 4 year old
Ran over 10f just 7 days ago

Very awkward profile to read
If he was absent 10-11-12 days
I'd  have passed him as better
Not a negative or a positive
But his last run is upgrabable
As he was going up 3f in trip
And had the widest draw too
 
Selection
 
£7.00 Win Bet  NEO SMART  4/1

£3.00 Win Bet  INDEPENDENT EXPERT 5/2








Naas 2.32

4/1 One Smack Mac, 9/2 Copacabana Sands
5/1 Dance Night Andday, 6/1 Spicy Margarita, 8/1 Dunum
8/1 Tina's Indian, 10/1 Mataariki, The Liffey
12/1 Unique Journey 

Listed race 7f 

No strong angles

Seasonal debut winners rare
Happy to avoid both of those

DUNUM 
THE LIFFEY

Winners from 6f are rare too
Happed only one years ago
By a 4yo from a Group 3 race
The following are up in distance

ONE SMACK ME
UNIQUE JOURNEY

SPICY MARGARITA drops 3f
Hard to like here down from 10f-7f

TINA'S INDIAN ras ran twice

Past renewals show
Horses winning last time out
Have a 0-23 record in this race

MATAARIKI faces this issue
She is a filly with 1 run this year
We had 3 winners
Who won with 1 race that year
They all had 7 or more runs 
And came from pattern races
MATAARIKI is not a match

DARK NIGHT ANDDAY a 5yo
Has also raced once this year
Winners with 1 race that year
All came from pattern races
She doesn't from a handicap

COPACABANA SANDS a 3yo
Has an extra run this season
 
Selection

COPACABANA SANDS 7/2

Each Way






Naas 3.02

5/4 Mississippi River, 100/30 Beckman
5/1 Nyman, 11/2 Va Va Vroom, 14/1 Sir Jeremy
16/1 Sugar Club.

3yo Handicap 8f

Quality handicap
Deserves a bigger field

BECKMAN has topweight

Big ask carrying 10 stone
With just 1 run this season
Not impossible he may bounce

VA VA VROOM is unsafe
No filly won a similar race
On their seasonal debuts 

Go back to 2010
3yo handicaps
Class 2 races
Run over 7f and further
Any time of year
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Return a 0-32 record
VA VA VROOM fails this

April May June
3yo Handicaps over 8f
Horses with over 5 runs
Coming from 7f races
Having 1 run that year
Return a 0-40 record
NYMAN fails this angle

MISSISSIPPI RIVER 

Meets some flawed profiles
Should have too much momentum

Selection

MISSISSIPPI RIVER 4/5-10/11

Win Bet






Newmarket 4.15

7/2 Zarzyni, 5/1 Reigning Profit, 5/1 Sanat
11/2 Spirit Of Applause, 13/2 Spring Bloom
7/1 Spring Is Sprung, 8/1 Fletcher's Flight
12/1 Merrimack, 33/1 Jacquelina

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-83

Race has been brought back
The last renewals was in 2021

Used to be a race
Won by young horses
Who had lower draws

ZARZYNI is an 8yo
Neiither young or drawn low

Going back 25 years
Every 5f handicap run
At any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Winning last time out
Absent over 24 days
Carrying 9st 1bs or more
Return a 1-42 record
Overall not a good return
ZARZYNI may be best left
Comingfrom the widest draw

MERRIMACK is resistibe
Did not do enough 8 days ago

JACQUELINA an older mare
Rejected with 44 days break

REIGNING PROFIT is a 6yo
Comes here on a hat trick bid
But up in class and  topweight
Felt there were safer options
FLETCHERS FLIGHT is a 5yo
Excuses last time missed break
But still beat none of his rivals

SANAT just won a messy race
Winning unfancied at 16/1
The race was run to suit him 
SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE 2nd
Could reverse the form today
 
SPRING BLOOM is an 8yo
His last run probably came too soon
Has plenty of backclass as well
Stableform has to be the concern
 
SPRING IS SPRUNG is a 6yo
Had two prep runs this season
Does not like a big field race
His last run was in a bigger field
In a higher grade than this one


He is best with a recent run 
At this time of year
In a manageable field size



Selection

SPRING IS SPRUNG 4/1

Each Way






Newmarket 4.45

4/1 Yaaser, 11/2 Flag Of St George, 8/1 Ash Wednesday
8/1 Mudamer, 9/1 Lord Rapscallion,  9/1 Waiting All Night
10/1 Izzari, Kit Gabriel, 10/1 Mercury Day, 12/1 Lunario
14/1 Be Frank, 16/1 Lyndon B, 25/1 The Bitter Moose.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-79

LORD RAPSCALION is topweight

This 9yo has just landed a hat trick
But his weight absence widest draw
All make him look very opposable

LYNDON B is another 9yo
Happy to ignore first time out

IZZARI won last time out
But 16/1 in a lower grade
Does not make much appeal 

BE FRANK has 139 days off
Could not rule him out in this
But hard to make him first choice

ASH WEDNEDAY is a 4yo
He has just landed a hat trick
But on sand and 44 days break
Makes him unlikely to follow up

MERCURY DAY is a filly
Plenty to do with her weight
MUDAMER may be underaced
KIT GABRIEL goes up in class
Should be some better horses
LUNARIO is risky down in trip

FLAG OF ST GEORGE could win
He is shortlistable like two others

WAITING ALL NIGHT could win
Exposed down in trip from a mile
Average profile but could pop up

YAASER

Just offers more

Whilst he is an exposed 7yo

His run two days ago seals it

Drawn an impossible 22 at York

Missed the break

Raced right at the back

Finished well to seal 6th place

Having had his girth snapped

Having 2 day break
Can sometimes count against you
But usually it is a big positive
And this horse has a strong record
When coming back quickly to a race

Selection

YAASER 11/4-5/2

Win Bet







Newmarket 5.45

3/1 Sixtygeesbaby, 5/1 American Style
13/2 Dark Cloud Rising, 13/2 Marchogion, 7/1 Northern Ticker
7/1 Aurora Majesty, Bolo Neighs, 12/1 Good Banter
20/1 Columnist


6f Handicap (3yo)

Horses rated 0-101

Recent winners
Had the following runs

6 6 6 4 5 6 3 5 4 4

That is pretty clear

Lighter raced horse are best

AMERICAN STYLE has 9 runs
Thats 2 more than all the rest
Yet still has the lowest rating
He also has the widest draw

COLUMNIST has 1 run this year
Beaten 8 lengths over 7 furlongs
Do not see that as sage enough

Seasonal debutants
Have won 3 of 19 renewals
Back in 2011 2015 and 2016

None had more than 9st 5lbs

NORTHERN TICKER has 9st 9lbs
That might not be an easy task

He is a big horse
Not a trainer I would rely on
To get him fit first time out
He says he may need the run

Had a look at his sires record

Horses sired by Mehmas
Running over 6f and more
Class 2 and higher grade
Absent more than 58 days
Return a 3-79 record
Those with under 7 career runs
Have a 0-41 record in them all
That is another clue against him
NORTHERN TICKER is rejected

BOLO NEIGHS has 218 days off
Has plenty of weight with 9st 7lbs
More than any seasonal debutant
May need the run from his trainer

Past renewals show

Horses with under 4 runs

Have a weak 1-28 record

The following horses have 3

SIXTYGEESBABY
AURORA MAJESTY

That winner 
Came from a handicap
None came from maidens/novices
SIXTYGEESBABY fails this angle

Similar races at other tracks
Horses with under 4 runs
Not coming from a handicap
Have a 0-20 record in them

Could not rule either out
Butn neither are a match

GOOD BANTER has a chance
But most of his form is on sand

MARCHOGION has 7 runs 
Happy enough with his profile
Badly drawn last time out
In a quality 77 grand handicap
Feel we should save on him
  
DARK CLOUD RISING has 6 runs
As the last 3 winners had as well

His Newmarket race last time
Easily the best trial race for this

Horses from Newmarket
In a 6f handicap last time out
Wom this race in these years
2012 2014 2018 2021 
2022 2023 2024
Two horses prepped there

AMERICAN STYLE

DARK CLOUD RISING

Either could win

DARK CLOUD RISING with 6 runs
Looks the better match of the two
Has much the better draw as well

NORTHERN TICKER a non runner

Selection

£4.00 Each Way DARK CLOUD RISING 8/1-9/1

£2.00 Win Bet MARCHOGION 4/1

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