9 Previews
1 Account Bet




Account Bet

Chester 3.40 

£7.50 Win Bet SECRET MISTRAL 5/1-9/2

£2.50 Win Bet COUNT D'ORSAY 3/1-11/4


Would not take any shorter

Expecting we might drift later








Final Deliberations

 
Typically competitive day 
Plenty of rain is expected 
At different time and places

No Ayr Gold Cup preview
Have to sacrifice that race

Sunday could be delayed
Will be no later than 11am


9 Previews

Plenty of interesting previews 
There are no short price bets 
Finding winners will be difficult

The staking certainly is today
Rather a lot of split stake bets

Account Bet is the priority

Not been too ambitious here

If right will be a winner over 3/1

The favourite scares me

But just prefer this pair



Chester 3.40 

£7.50 Win Bet SECRET MISTRAL 5/1-9/2

£2.50 Win Bet COUNT D'ORSAY 3/1-11/4









Preview Selections

Newbury 1.30
£9.00 Win Bet Rumstar 4/1-7/2
£1.00 Win Bet Kerdos 9/1

Ayr 1.50
£5.50 Win Bet Caviar Heights 5/1
£3.50 Win Bet  Almeric 13/8-7/4

Newbury 2.40 
£5.00 Win Bet Dante's Lad 9/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Night Step 11/10

Ayr 3.00
£4.00 Each Way Rogue Attraction 8/1-9/1
£2.00 Win Bet Coming Attraction 4/1

Chester 3.40 
£7.50 Win Bet Secret Mistral  5/1-9/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Count d'Orsay 3/1-11/4
 
Newmarket 3.55 
£8.00 Win Bet Reverend Hubert 7/1-8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Almuhit 15/2-8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Sheradann 11/1-12/1

Ayr 4.10
£5.50 Win Bet Galilean Quality 15/2-7/1
£2.00 Win Bet Hasbro Market 9/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Red Spells Danger 100/30
 
Chester 4.15
£5.50 Win Bet Al Hussar 18/1 
£3.50 Win Bet Jer Batt  7/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Rosenpur 11/1-12/1

Chester 4.45
£5.50 Win Bet Gallant Lion 10/1-9/1 
£2.50 Win Bet No More Bolero 3/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Dino Bellagio 7/2









PROFILES & PREVIEWS


 
Newbury 1.30

3/1 Rumstar, 9/2 Montassib, 6/1 Rage Of Bamby
7/1 First Instinct, 7/1 Shagraan, 8/1 Kerdos
10/1 Balmoral Lady, Cover Up, 14/1 Queen All Star
20/1 Grand Grey, 40/1 Habooba

Group race 5f

MONTASSIB is top rated

But has 336 days absence
 
Past renewals show 
The longest absent winner 94 days 
On softer ground it was just 42 days

Looks rather risky for a 7 year old
Who has never raced over 5f before

Here is some context

Go back to 2002
Every 5f Group race
Run any time of year
Horses aged 7 or older
Absent more than 69 days
Have a 0-78 record
MONTASSIB fails this

For balance
Not many of the 0-78 were fancied
And he is welll supported in the market
 
I would prefer a fit profile

Some of these do fall short

GRAND GREY has 70 days off

HABOOBA looks underraced

BALMORAL LADY a 4yo filly
Has raced just once in 76 days 
And 4 year old fillies are 0-27
 
Horses with over 14 runs
Absent more than 30 days
Have a 0-34 record in this
The following horses all fail

BALMORAL LADY
MONTASSIB
COVER UP

FIRST INSTINCT is a 3yo filly
She's raced once in 71 days
Hard to read as she is a filly
But can not see that as ideal

QUEEN ALL STAR a 3yo filly
Looks raw going up 3 grades

Past 4yo winners had 6-18 runs
 
SHAGRAAN is a 4yo
He has had 20 career runs
We could forgive him that
But many of the 4yo winners
Ran in the previous 10 days

Horses aged 4
Over 15 career runs
Absent more than 10 days
Return a 0-29 record in this
SHAFRAAN is next to try
 
RAGE OF BAMBY could win
The outside stall is not ideal

RUMSTAR has a solid chance

KERDOS passes my angles   
He is a difficult horse to read
Feel he must be on the staking
As it would be a cheap saver

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet RUMSTAR 4/1-7/2

£1.00 Win Bet KERDOS 9/1







Ayr 1.50

6/4 Almeric, 7/2 King's Gambit, 11/2 Caviar Heights
11/2 Liberty Lane, 6/1 Certain Lad, 10/1 Tuscan Hills.
 
Doonside Cup

Listed race 10f
 
Small field

ALMERIC is a 3yo

He is quite a warm favourite 
Desoite facing 158 days off 
Only having 3 career runs

This is a race
That has been won by horses
Who have had long absences

But so far no horse aged 3
Has won absent over 86 days

ALMERIC would be the first

Just 3 career runs
Could impact that absence

Previous 3 year old winners
Had 10 6 5 6 7 14 career runs
They all had at least 5 races

ALMERIC only has 3 runs
So weakness in his profile

May not stop him winning
Given the size of the field
But not for me at short odds

TUSCAN HILL another 3yo
Has a similar profile/problem 
Just 4 runs and 105 days off

No 3 year old has won this 
So inexperienced or off so long

Go back as far as 1997
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-30 record in this
CERTAIN LAD is a 9 year old
He's ran just once in 134 days
He is also sired by Clodovil
He fails my breeding statistics
 
LIBERTY LANE is a 5yo
He's ran just once in 94 days
I'd have liked more recent runs

KING'S GAMBIT is similar
He's ran just once in 94 days
But he is a year younger 
His sire stats are a concern 

Horses sired by Saxon Warrior
Running over 1m 2f and more
Class 4 and higher grade
Good to soft or worse ground
Return a 0-50 record so far
KING'S GAMBIT is next to try 
Has a better chance of winning
Than that sire stat might imply
But it is a worry on this ground

CAVIAR HEIGHTS is a 4yo
Only had the 2 runs in 2025
But unexposed from a top yard


Hard to choose

Option 1

Oppose the favourite
With a win bet and 2 savers

Option 2

Save on the favourite
Go with a big priced horse
This strategy just won out

Selection

£5.50 Win Bet CAVIAR HEIGHTS 11/2

£3.50 Win Bet ALMERIC 13/8-7/4








Newbury 2.40

11/4 Defiance, 9/2 Almosh'her, 11/2 Night Step
13/2 Theory Of Tides, 8/1 Dante's Lad, 10/1 Mustazeed
10/1 Serenity Blue, 14/1 Our Golden One, 16/1 Due To Henry
16/1 Wisper, 25/1 Forest Gate.
 
10f Handcap

28 Past renewals

High class race

Horses aged 3 and 4
Have been dominant in this

Last year we had a 6yo win
He was the first in decades


Horses aged 6 or more
Have a poor 1-73 record 
This takes out 2 horses

WISPER
MUSTAZEED

WISPER fails a sire stat
Horses sired by Belardo
His runners over 1m 2f +
In Class 2 and higher races 
Softer ground than good
Have a 0-33 record so far
WISPER would be the first


DEFIANCE is topweight
Sexy unexposed 4 year old 
But not a race for highweights

If you go back to 2002
Horses with 9st 6lbs or more
Have a troubling 1-76 record
DEFIANCE has this problem

ALMOSH'HER also fails this
Tough weight with 9st 10lbs
He is down 4f in distance
Raced just once in 92 days 
More than 1 question mark

THEORY OF TIDES is a 4yo
Raced just once in 12 months
Coming back only 13 days later
He could be on the bounce
Can not match him to a winner
 
None of the outsiders appeal
Several have nasty absences
 
SERENITY BLUE is a 3yo
He only has 4 career starts
Thats fine it has been done
But his 51 day break a worry

28 Past renewals

Horses aged 3
Absent more than 29 days
Have a 0-39 record in this
SERENITY BLUE fails this
 
NIGHT STEP is a 3yo
Profile fine he is interesting
One slight worry with him

His sire Showcasing
His runners over 1m 2f +
In Class 2 and higher races
Have a 2-40 record so far
Those on softer than good
Have yet to win all 9 failed

DANTES LAD is a 3yo
He has a good recent race

That could come too soon
But if not could be an advantage

Going to split stake this
DANTES LAD is drifting
Puts me off him each way
So going win and place

Selection
 
£5.00 Win Bet DANTES LAD 9/1

£5.00 Place Bet NIGHT STEP  11/10







Ayr 3.00

3/1 Coming Attraction, 5/1 Lightning Polka
13/2 Dandana, 8/1 Argentine Tango,  8/1 Rogue Attraction
10/1 Catching The Moon, 10/1  India Love, Mood Queen
12/1 Isle Of Fernandez, 20/1 Lam Yai, 25/1 Come On Eibhlin
25/1 Wateen, 33/1 Anaisa, 50/1 Solana Rose
100/1 Figjam
 
Clyde Stakes

6f Group race

2yo fillies
   
The race has a history of shocks
So not for to get over excited with

Trying to pick a few off

Go back to 2005
Every winner of this race
Drawn between stalls 3-12

Go back to 2005
Every winner of this race
Drawn between stalls 3-12
Stalls 1-2 may be a problem

Go back to 1997

Ayr 6f races
Run in class 4 or higher
With 10 or more runners
Horses with under 6 runs
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-22
Drawn in stall 2 are 0-25 
MOON QUEEN has stall 1
LAM YAI is drawn in stall 2

The highest draws
Could be an issue as well

Go back to 1997
Ayr 6f races
Horses with under 4 runs
Drawn 13 or higher are 0-23
The following both fail this

LIGHTNING POLKA
COME ON EIBHLIN
 
Go back to 1997
Past renewals show
Horses from 5f races
Have a poor 1-66 record
Several outsiders fail this
So do the following horses

CATCHING THE MOON
INDIA LOVE
ARGENTINE TANGO


Shortlist

COMING ATTRACTION
DANDANA
ROGUE ATTRACTION
ISLE OF FERNANDEZ

Can not narrow this down
All are matchable to winners

Breeding stats suggest

DANDANA has most to prove

His sire's juveniles
Over 6f or more on softer ground
In listed or group class are 0-15
None have won before now
Don't find that too persuasive

Have to guess from this point

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ROGUE ATTRACTION 8/1-9/1

£2.00 Win Bet COMING ATTRACTION 4/1







Chester 3.40

100/30 Paws For Thought, 4/1 Count d'Orsay
5/1 Ventura Express, 13/2 Secret Mistral, 8/1 Keep Warm
9/1 Ran Amok, 10/1 Ay Gee Ell, 10/1 Star Chorus
12/1 Fuji Mountain, 20/1 Hyperfocus.

Handicap over 5f 110y

Horses rated 0-82
 
VENTURE EXPRESS topweight
 
May not have an easy task

Given his age (8) and 5 weeks off
Having to carry 10st 2lbs as well
 
Go back to 1997
Chester
Every handicap
Any distance
Any class of race
Any time of year
With over 7 runners
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 31 days
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-79 record
VENTURE EXPRESS does this
Only just but he does fail it
Never won on softer ground

AY GEE ELL is a 3yo
Raced just once in 126 days
He looks underraced in this

Going back to 1997
No 3 year old
Has won a 5f handicap here
Having raced once in 3 months
Only 15 tried but none have won

HYPERFOCUS is an 11 years old
He is just not running well enough

STAR CHORUS a 3yo drawn 10
Comes here after a recent thrashing

FUJI MOUNTAIN a badly drawn 3yo
Does not look in good enough form

Go back to 1997
Chester 5f races
Any class of race
Any time of year
Open to older horses
Horses aged 3
Over 6 career runs
Drawn 7 or higher
Have a 0-68 record
The following horses fail this

RAN AMOK
FUJI MOUNTAIN
STAR CHORUS

Go back to 1997
Chester
Every 5f handicap
Any class of race
Any time of year
With over 7 runners
4 year olds
Absent over 28 days
Carrying 8st 9lbs or more
Have a poor 1-61 record
KEEP WARM absent 6 weeks
Fails this profile as a 4yo
 
Go back to 1997
Chester
Every 5f handicap
Any class of race
Any time of year
4 year olds
Rated 82 lower
Absent over just 13 days
Drawn 5 higher
Have a 0-79 record
KEEP WARM fail this
 
Possibles
 
PAWS FOR THOUGHT a 7yo
Has a fit and in form profile
But he is down 2f in distance
That does weaken his profile
None have managed that her
No 7yo has won here over 7f
Coming down from a 6f race
 
Go back to 1997
Handicaps under 6f
With over 5 runners
In Class 4 or higher
Horses aged 7 or more
Coming from 7f or more
Running this season
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Return a worrying 1-75 record
The only horse that managed it
Racy (2014) ran the day before
PAWS FOR THOUGHT fails this  

COUNT D'ORSAY won this last year
Felt he got lucky because of the pace
The leaders went off too fast in 2024
Pace collapsed it all fell in his lap
The lowest rated horse this year
He's unlikely to be handed it again
But he is fit and well handicapped
 
SECRET MISTRAL a 5yo
He is fit and running well
Has had some excuses
Once or twice went off too fast
Badly drawn at Haydock 3 runs ago

Selection
 
£7.50 Win Bet SECRET MISTRAL 5/1-9/2

£2.50 Win Bet COUNT D'ORSAY 3/1-11/4








Newmarket 3.55

5/4 Belgravian, 11/2 Almuhit, 13/2 Chutzpal
9/1 Reverend Hubert, 10/1 Sheradann, 10/1 Sign From Above
12/1 Bashful Boy, 14/1 Dreams Adozen, 20/1 Master Milliner.

Handicap 2m 2f

Cesarewitch Trial

16 Past renewals
   
Not really my sort of race

Just picking a few issues out

BELGRAVIAN the only 3yo
Two years younger than the rest
Seems a very short price at 5/4
He has 9st 4lbs weight to carry

Go back to 1997
Handicaps over 2m 1f +
Open to all aged horses
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
With 8st 10lbs or more
Have an inconclusive 0-9 record
BELGRAVIAN the 10th to try

Go back to 2001
Handicaps over 2m 
Open to all aged horses
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
With 8st 10lbs or more
Absent more than 14 days
Return a 0-16 record so far
BELGRAVIAN the 17th to try

None have won
With as much weight as him

He might become the first
But not risking him at 5/4

Some of these
Come from unproven sires

BASHFUL BOY is one of them

CHUTZPAL is another 

DREAMS ADOZEN also unproven

May not stop them winning
But there are no precedents 
MASTER MILLER is unsafe
Staying with the safer sires

  
Selection

£8.00 Win Bet  REVEREND HUBERT 7/1-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet ALMUHIT 15/2-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet SHERADANN 11/1-12/1







Ayr 4.10

5/2 Red Spells Danger, 100/30 Hasbro Market
7/2 Arabian Desert, Nobody Knows, 13/2 Galilean Quality
14/1 Rockafeller Skank, 20/1 Positive Thoughts.

2yo Novice 7f

Interesting race to watch

3 horses have experience

4 horses are unraced

Past renewals show
Winners had these runs 
2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1

They all had experience
Unraced horses are 0-26

NOBODY KNOWS is unraced

Well backed cost 320,000 euros

Understandable why he is 3/1

But this is soft ground 
He has the widest draw
Interesting draw stat

Go back to 2002
Ayr 7f races
With under 10 runners
Unraced 2 year olds
Drawn in stall 6 or higher
Have a 0-35 record 
NOBODY KNOWS next to try

The last unraced 2yo to do it
Was  Leo's Luckyman in 2001

So staying with experience

HASBRO MARKET has 2 runs

He is drifting in the market
Maybe the penalty puts people off
Unraced on softer ground as well

Penalties have been earnt

Going to split stake the horses
With the most experience so far

Selection

£5.50 Win Bet GALILEAN QUALITY 15/2-7/1

£2.00 Win Bet HASBRO MARKET 9/2
 
£2.50 Win Bet RED SPELLS DANGER 3/1







Chester 4.15

3/1 Balon d'Or, 7/2 Jer Batt
11/2 Copper Knight 6/1 Smart Vision
13/2 Maharajas Express, 9/1 Mc Loven
9/1 Rosenpur, 10/1 Al Hussar

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-88

COPPER KNIGHT runs again
He's now having his 113th race 
As an 11yo drawn widest of all
Would not be my first choice

MAHARAJAS EXPRESS a 5yo
Not tempting with 56 day's break

AL HUSAR is a 3yo up in class

MC LOVEN has his chance
But he is going up two grades
Never won in this class before

BALON D'OR is interesting

He fails a strange angle
And he only just fails this
 
Go back to 1997
Chester
Every 5f handicap
Any class of race
Any time of year
4 year olds
Rated 82 lower 
Drawn 6 higher
Have a 2-114 record
Those absent over 4 days
Have a 0-100 record
BALON D'OR absent 8 days
Just fails this 0-100 statistic
 
Go back to 1997
Chester handicaps
Run short of 6f
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Over 21 runs
Absent over 24 days
Carrying 8st 10lbs or more
Return a 0-33 record
SMART VISION fails this
 
ROSENPUR has a chance
Never won in this class before
Never won off his current mark
But his run here back in May
Would be good enough to win
Probably needs to repeat that

This looks open

One interesting issue for me
2nd in the weights does not run

JER BATT rated 88

Therefore only faces a 0-81

This is his easiest race in a while
Could potentially outclass these
Feel he has to be on the staking
But he is very short around 7/1

ROSENPUR rated 81 
He is the highest rated danger

If we can get Smart Vision beaten

We can cover the two class horses

Rated 88 and 81

Only facing a 0-77 class race

AL HUSSAR is a 3yo
He looks well handicapped
With a very recent run as well
Feel I must include him as well

JER BATT is most likely winner

Given the prices

Rather go with the outsider


Selection

£5.50 Win Bet AL HUSSAR 18/1

£3.50 Win Bet JER BATT 7/4

£1.00 Win Bet ROSENPUR 11/1-12/1






Chester 4.45

3/1 No More Bolero, 4/1 Solar Pass, 9/2 Dino Bellagio
8/1 Run Of Luck, 10/1 Fast Fred, 10/1  Gallant Lion
12/1 Zimmerman, 14/1 Cheshire Belle, 16/1 Oman
16/1 Swinging London, Alex The Great, 25/1 Ruler Legend
33/1 Dance Time, Montpellier Green.

Handicap 1m 6f

Horses rated 0-74
   
NO MORE BELORO

Dual purpose 67 year old
Ran very well 8 days ago

I think his chance increases
By flaws in some main rivals

SOLAR PASS a 3yo drawn 14

Go back to 1997
Chester races over 1m 3f +
No 3yo has won
Drawn 12 or higher (0-16)
SOLAR PASS is badly drawn

RUN OF LUCK is a 4yo
Failing him on breeding stats
His sire has no winners past 12f
Only 12 tried but none have won
  
FAST FRED is weak on sire stats
Sires runners over 1m 5f and more
Have a modest 1-44 record so far
Those absent over 8 days are 0-42

Prefer the chances of two horses

Who ran over 2 miles last time

Both at their stamina limit around 2m

May appreciate this drop in distance
 
GALLANT LION
DINO BELLAGIO 

With several doubtful stayers

Going with a 3 horse strategy

Selection

£5.50 Win Bet GALLANT LION 10/1-9/1

£2.50 Win Bet NO MORE BELORO 3/1

£2.00 Win Bet DINO BELLAGIO 7/2

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