8 Previews
1 Account Bet





Account Bet
 
Navan 5.05 
 
NATURAL BREEZE 7/1-15/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)


You can and should get 4 places
But just not enough to go round
So have to put this down as 1-2-3
If he is 4th you don't have to lose

Would not take under 7/1 now

Every chance he is bigger later on




Final Deliberations



Running cold so far this week
Embarrassed and in disgrace
After some very lame messages

Only priority today

Decent price account bet winner

Message geared to finding one
So lets hope we get some luck
Either way there is some variety

8 Previews

2 Newbury
2 Navan
1 Bangor
1 Kelso 
1 Newcastle
1 Wolverhampton


There are 2 Shorter priced bets 
No chance of staking either horse
  
There are 2 all weather selections
Both low grade 5f sprint handicaps
Tight margins badly framed races
Prefer this selection from the pair

Wolverhampton 4.53 

£7.50 Win Bet GUSTAV GRAVES 9/2

£2.50 Win Bet PHOENIX BEACH 3/1-100/30




The Target race


Newbury 3.15 

£4.50 Each Way CRAZIERTHANDAISY 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet LA PINSONNIERE 11/1-10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Always liked this race
The only horses in the race
Who don't fail and race angles
And Nicky Hendersons pair
Not sure I have staked it well
Doesn't feel confident enough
For a staked bet in a big field

Settled on a handicap chaser

Manageable race a decent price

Been going off a bit too quickly


Navan 5.05 
 
NATURAL BREEZE 7/1-15/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)


Not the sexiest horse in this
Might even drift a bit later on
But he is getting a lot of weight
Could be very well handicapped
If he does not go off too quickly
Get a good return for the risks






Preview Selections    



Kelso 1.15 
£8.00 Win Bet Cadell 5/2
£2.00 Win Bet Pull Again Green 9/2-4/1

Newbury 3.15 
£4.50 Each Way Crazierthandaisy 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet La Pinsonniere 11/1-10/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5
 
Newbury 3.50 
Don't Mind If I Do 1/1 
Win Bet

Navan 4.30
Canal End 6/1-13/2
Each Way  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5
 
Bangor 4.37
Atlantic Lad 11/8
Win Bet

Wolverhampton 4.53 
£7.50 Win Bet Gustav Graves 9/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Phoenix Beach 3/1-100/30
 
Navan 5.05 
Natural Breeze 7/1-15/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3 (4)

Newcastle 8.15 
£5.00 Win Bet Darlo Pride 6/1-11/2 
£5.00 Place Bet Dark Kestrel 11/10







Yesterday's Summary  



Short uneventful message
Limited it to just 3 previews
Teofimo  was a non runner
So it was pretty meaningless
Captain Bellamy finished 2nd
Holokea got a place each way
Neither exciting or too skillful







PROFILES & PREVIEWS 




Kelso 1.15

13/8 Dare To Shout, 3/1 Cadell
100/30 Pull Again Green, 9/2 Your Own Story
12/1 Mr Incredible

Handicap Chase 3m 2f

Nasty little race

MR INCREDIBLE the outsider
Different class on his best form
But refused to race last time
That was his first in 10 months
Too many doubts about him

YOUR OWN STORY is a 9yo
Tempting off bottomweight
Just worried that last time out
He finished 9th in the Eider

Go back to 2007
March
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Horses from the Eider
Finishing in that race
Running within 28 days
Have a 0-41 record in them 
YOUR OWN STORY fails 

DARE TO SHOUT

Has to be the favourite
The only horse in the race
With a good recent run

That was over 2m 4f
This is a 6f step up in trip
No past winner did that

Go back to 2007
January to May
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 2f and more
Class 4 and higher grade
Horses under 9 years old
Coming from under 2m 5f
Running within the last 22 days
Return a 0-34 record in them
DARE TO SHOUT has this profile
  
With only 5 runners
Nothing is a negative

CADELL appealed most

Toss up for the saver bet

YOUR OWN STORY is one

PULL AGAIN GREEN another
Will he get home off 98 days
Very few from his sire have
When faced with an absence
Close call going this way

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CADELL 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet PULL AGAIN GREEN 7/2-4/1









Newbury 3.15

3/1 Siog Geal, 9/2 Jasmine Bliss, 7/1 Scarlet O'Tara
9/1 Crazierthandaisy, 10/1 La Pinsonniere, 10/1 Rockstown Girl
10/1 Sunset Marquesa, 14/1 Clotilda, 14/1 Pismo Beach
18/1 Betty's Tiara, 20/1 I Am The Moon, 20/1  Jakana
20/1  Of Course You Can, 25/1 Come On Nia, 28/1 Either Way
33/1 The Secret Pearl.


Novice Handicap Hurdle

Mares  2m 4f

25 Past renewals

The only race of it's kind
Run at any time of the year

Go back to 2006
Every winner was rated 109 +
Horses rated lower are 0-126
The following horses fail this

COME ON NIA
I AM THE MOON 
OF COURSE YOU CAN
PISMO BEACH 
EITHER WAY
THE SECRET PEARL
CLOTILDA

CLOTILDA is a 4yo
Youngest horse in the race
None have won this before
He also comes from 2 miles

Go back to1998
Horses from 2m races 
They have a 0-39 record 
None came from 2 miles
The following horses fail this

CLOTILDA
SUNSET MARQUESA
SIOG GEAL
COME ON NIA

Past winners
Had the following runs

16 4 8 5 6 9 3 6 10 7 5 9
10 6 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 6 3  

Only 1 past winner
Had more than 10 career runs
That was last years 25/1 winner
History shows he was well treated

Every past winner
Had fewer than 11 career runs
Those that did not are now 1-46
The following horses do not

COME ON NIA
CLOTILDA
OF COURSE YOU CAN
 
No horse under 6 years old
Has won with under 5 races (0-13) 
PISMO BEACH would be the first
 
Horses from 2m 6f or more
Have a winless 0-74 record
SCARLET O'TARA fails this
Drops down from a 3m 1f race

Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 2-50 record in this race
They are 1-40 since 2004

JASMINE BLISS has 11st 12lbs

ROCKSTOWN GIRL has 11st 8lbs
She has a difficult 102 day absence

Horses absent over 29 days
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-33 record in this
ROCKSTOWN GIRL fails this
SCARLET O'TARA fails as well
SUNSET MARQUESA just does

Go back to 2004
Horses with under 5 hurdle runs
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-33 record in them
JASMINE BLISS fails this angle
They are 1-40 since 1998
Those under 7 doing it are 0-27
JASMINE BLISS fails this as well

 Go back to 2002
Horses from handicaps
Won this race 3 times (3-71)
They were all 5 year olds

Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from handicaps
Have a 0-53 record in them
The following horses fail this

EITHER WAY
THE SECRET PEARL
SCARLET O'TARA

21 of the last 22 winners
Came from Class 2 or lower

Horses from Listed/Graded races
Only won in 2015 in a 1-30 record 
ROCKSTOWN GIRL fails this stat
 
Horses from a maiden hurdle
Have yet to win just 13 tried and lost
The following try to better this angle
 
PISMO BEACH 
BETTY'S TIARA
 
JAKANA does not offer enough

Nicky Henderson's runs two

Both pass all my main angles


LA PINSONNIERE 10/1 

CRAZIERTHANDAISY 7/1-13/2

Both have different positives
Not certain of the stable choice
That is if they even have one

CRAZIERTHANDAISY is older
Has less weight which should help

Selection

£4.50 Each Way CRAZIERTHANDAISY 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet LA PINSONNIERE 11/1-10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Newbury 3.50

5/2 Don't Mind If I Do, 7/2 Coconut Grove, 4/1 John Barbour
6/1 Rene's Walk, 7/1 I Play County, 10/1 Judgementofsolomon
20/1 Lasting Love, 66/1 Amancio 66/1 Goodbyemick.

Novice Hurdle 2m 1f

DON'TMIND IF I DO

Has a comfortable edge
On his hurdling numbers

Not many obvious dangers

Not been a good race for 4yo's
They have a 2-45 record in them

One won in a small field
The other had lots of experience

COCONUT GROVE is a 4yo
Nice prospect but still very raw
Percentage call is to oppose

JUDGEMENTOFSOLOMAN a 4yo
Has several months off the track
None of the 4 year olds appeal

Horses from bumpers
Have a 0-31 record in this
RENE'S WALK fails this angle
Happy to oppose her as a mare

I PLAY COUNTY won last time
Needs to improve to win this

JOHN BARBOUR is respected
Syndicate owned but a danger

DONT MIND IF I DO preferred
Cost twice as much as his danger
He has achieved plenty more
Has an edge on experience 

Selection

DONT MIND IF I DO  1/1

Win Bet






Navan 4.30

11/2 Hillsdale, 6/1 Prince Palace, 8/1 Verdant Place
17/2 Banjaxed, 9/1 Bleu d'Enfer, 10/1 Canal End
11/1 Mousey Brown, 11/1 Zurich 12/1 Black Bamboo
12/1 Chigorin, 14/1 Global Export 18/1 Big Stage
25/1 Cheerful Chap 50/1 Buachaillbocht

Novice Handicap Chase

Series Final Listed race

16 Past renewals

Long history to this race

WESTERN FOLD a now out 
It leaves us with 14 runners

No horse with under 9 chases
Won with more than 11st 7lbs
None won with his weight either

Would not want a horse
Who has been quiet recently

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 3 months are 0-24

Horses with under 4 runs
In the previous 12 months are 0-32

The following look short of runs

MOUSY BROWN has been hurdling
Raced just once run since July 2024

BANJAKED is short of recent runs
All 16 winners ran within 53 days
He has a longer 70 day absence

HILLSDALE has 66 days off the track
Just the 1 run in over 3 months too
Also going up 6f in distance as well

Horses from 2m 3f or shorter
Won 2 of the 16 past renewals
Both ran within the last 15 days

Horses with under 4 runs
In the previous 12 months are 0-32
ZURICH has had only the 3 races
Joint least experienced chaser too
CHIGORIN has the same problem
Similar profile and a tough weight

BUACHAILLBOCHT lacks positives
CHEERFULL CHAP is too exposed
BIG STAKE is not running too well

PRINCE PALACE has a chance
One or two may progress past him

JASMINE DE COTTE drops 3f
Well beaten last time resistible 

None of the 16 past winners
Had more than 27 lifetime starts
GLOBAL EXPORT has had 42
 
BLUE D'ENFER is a 7yo
Not ruled out but a bit exposed
Big step up in class as well


BLACK BAMBOO

Looks and smells fancied
Possibly laid out for the race
But still has a lot to prove

17 career runs 3 chase runs
Not sure that balance is right

Horses aged 8 or older
With under 5 chase races
Have a 0-11 record in this
BLACK BAMBOO would be first
He's also steps up 6f in distance

Horses aged 7 or more
With under 5 chase runs
Have a 0-32 record in this
The following horses fail this

BLACK BAMBOO
CHIGORIN

Some of the main challengers
Have one or two profile flaws
 
CANAL END looks quite well treated

VERDANT PLACE his stablemate
Looks a lot more exposed for a 7yo
Lacks a recent race absent 41 days
 
CANAL END has more positives

Selection

CANAL END 6/1-13/2

Each Way  

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4 







Bangor 4.37

11/10 Carrig Kate, 5/4 Atlantic Lad, 7/1 Ki Woo
10/1 Jomig Des Bois, 50/1 River Rider, 66/1 Kallow Point
66/1 Neptune House, 100/1 Feryl Beryl, Thickthorn Tom.

Novice Hurdle 2m 3f

Market suggests a match

CARRIG KATE v ATLANTIC LAD

KI WOOD stablemate of Carrig Kate
Still looks raw needs to improve

CARRIG KATE is 10/11

Probably the right favourite

You can argue she is the best horse

But official ratings

Show she is only rated 114

ATLANTIC LAD is rated 114

Little between them on figures

CARRIG KATE is quite unusual
As a 7yo mare dropping down 5f
That was in a listed grade as well
But the figfure she produced
Was no better than Atlantic Lads
On ground that he likely hated
His connections said as much

ATLANTIC LAD more orthadox
Has a very good chance in this
Just prefered him at the prices
 
Selection

ATLANTIC LAD 11/8 

Win Bet






Wolverhampton 4.53

3/1 Gustav Graves, 7/2 Wedgewood, 4/1 Phoenix Beach
11/2 Port Hedland, 6/1 Level Up, 9/1 Newyorkstateofmind
10/1 The Defiant.

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND an 8yo
Has topweight and 149 days break
Would want a much fitter profile

PORT HEDLAND is a 4yo
He's raced just once in 92 days
Was recently sold for just £1000

THE DEFIANT can't be ruled out
But the oldest horse as a 9yo
Would not be my first choice

No strong objections elsewhere

LEVEL UP has enough ability
Others have much shorter breaks
He has the widest draw as welll

WEDGEWOOD is another option

PHOENIX BEACH has a fit profile

GUSTAV GRAVES is first choice

His last 3 runs

Badly drawn in all of them

He could be ready to win soon


Selection

£7.50 Win Bet GUSTAV GRAVES 9/2

£2.50 Win Bet PHOENIX BEACH 3/1-100/30







Navan 5.05

7/2 Quornofamonday, 5/1 Natural Breeze, 13/2 Gondor
7/1 Jay Pee M, 15/2 A Wave Of The Sea, 8/1 Battle Of Ridgeway
17/2 Mount Frisco, 9/1 In The Trenches, 11/1 St Denis's Well
14/1 Elle Perfecta, 20/1 Hardwired.

Handicap Chase 2m 1f

One or two looked resistible
Would not see a 5yo as ideal
IN THE TRENCHES the only one

Opposing the long absent

GONDOR
ELLE PERFECTA
MOUNT FRISCO

Against the highest weights
ST DENIS'S WELL included

HARDWIRED won last year
But is not in the same form

A WAVE OF THE SEA a 9yo
Seems fancied could win this
But he has had 53 career runs
He has also had 35 chase runs
Thrown in on his older form
Lot of water under the bridge
Just 1 run in the last 97 days
Looks a bit exposed for that

Prefer one of these 4

BATTLE OF RIDGEWAY a 7yo
Return to chasing unpredictable

QUORNOFAMONDAY won last time
But up in the weights off 6 weeks
Drroping down half a mile as well

JAY PEE M is 6 years old
On the inexperienced side
Having just 2 chase starts

NATURAL BREEZE a 10yo
Oldest horse but only 6 chase runs
So hardly exposed for his age
Many horses aged 10 + won this
Some question him left handed
But he is 3 runs going that way
Two were when 50/1 and 100/1
The other he went off too quickly

He set the pace last time out too
May just have done too much
Caught late into second place
Career best run on his figures

Has he got enough class ?

Not sure but the topweights
 
All have serious question marks

He gets 12lbs and more weight
From every horse in this race
 
Horses aged 10 or more
Have won this with 4 6 9 chase runs
He should be fine with 6 chases

If he gets his fractions right
He could surprise a few here

Selection

NATURAL BREEZE 7/1-15/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)







Newcastle 8.15

4/1 Ganesha, 5/1 Dark Kestrel, 5/1 Darlo Pride
6/1 Frank The Spark, 13/2 Above, 7/1 Golden Rainbow
7/1 King's Crown, 10/1 Filly One, 20/1 Fierce
33/1 South Shore, Wrestling Revenue.

5f Handicap

Only reason I doing this

DARLO PRIDE is a horse
I thought should win soon


Several look undercooked

FILLY ONE is a raw filly
Widest draw not a fit profile

FRANK THE SPARK underaced
Having had 1 run in 184 days

SOUTH SHORE 1 run in 170 days

FIERCE has a long absence

WRESTLING REVENUE is resistible

GOLDEN RAINBOW has a chance
But his last 2 runs were in this grade
Started 50/1 and 25/1 in them both
His only 2 runs in over 5 months
Felt there were some safer options

ABOVE is 8 years old
He is 2 years older than the others
Several younger have fitter profiles
One or two appealed a bit more
 
KING'S CROWN has a chance
But never won off current rating
He is 0-10 in class 5 handicaps
I would still see him as a positive

GANESHA has a chance

DARK KESTREL shortlistable
 
DARLO PRIDE is due a win

In his last 4 runs

Drawn in the outside stall
In 3 of his previous 4 races  

Stumbled clipping heels in the other

Looks a horse who should win soon

Can not be sure it will be today

Given market and field size

Split staking this race


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet DARLO PRIDE 6/1-11/2

£5.00 Place Bet DARK KESTREL 11/10

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