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1 Account Bet





Account Bet

Newmarket 2.40

£6.00 Win Bet TATTYCORAM 13/2-7/1 
 
£4.00 Win Bet TIFFANY 11/8

 








Final Deliberations


8 Previews  

2 Newmarket
2 Sandown
2 Leicester
1 Beverley 
1 Naas

Newmarket's card
Normally run at Haydock
But because of track work
It has now been switched
So statistics are less valid

Feels like a lot of variety 
Account winner last week
Which was clearly overdue
So hoping for another one

There were several options
Many of them each way bets
One or two are just too short
One or two not stable enough


Settled on a split stake bet


Lancashire Oaks


Newmarket 2.40

£6.00 Win Bet TATTYCORAM 13/2-7/1 
 
£4.00 Win Bet TIFFANY 11/8


Tiffany is the best horse
He has positives and negatives
Decided to make her a saver
Rather than go each way
Tattycoram the main selection
She is the best profile horse
Who looks laid out for the race












Preview Selections    
    
Newmarket 1.30 
Wedonttelllies 5/1-11/2
Each Way

Leicester 2.11
£6.50 Win Bet Dream On Kent 7/2
£3.50 Win Bet Turnstile 11/8

Sandown 2.25
£4.00 Each Way Hard Endeavor 8/1-9/1
£2.00 Win Bet Indalo 7/2  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5
  
Newmarket 2.40
£6.00 Win Bet Tattycoram 13/2-7/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Tiffany 5/4

Naas 3.08 
Jordan Breeze 8/1-15/2 
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Leicester 3.20
Kameel 7/2-4/1 
Each Way
 
Beverley 3.24
£8.75 Win Bet Amantha 9/4 
£1.25 Win Bet Farndale 13/2
 
Sandown 4.47  
£8.50 Win Bet Tambora 4/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Barbury Boy 11/2-6/1










PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Newmarket 1.30

11/4 Percy's Star, 3/1 Quantum Power
4/1 Desert Treasure, 5/1 Mighty Magnus
7/1 Wedonttelllies, 16/1 Kolkata Knight
20/1 Zelaina, 20/1 Ambishio.

5f Handicap

3 year olds

Looks the the highweights
May not be ready to win yet

KOLKATA KNIGHT
ZELAINA

DESERT TREASURE

She is sexy horse

William Haggas improver

Only 3 career runs
Only 1 run in 12 months
She has a 50 day absence
That is a very raw profile
Male horses have managed it
No filly has although few tried

There are no shortage
Of in form fitter profiles 

MIGHTLY MAGNUS is one
The one thing putting me off
In similar class 4 handicaps
Horses dropping from class 2
Do not win as much as expected

PERCY'S STAR is up in class
Don't have a major issue with him

QUANTUM POWER up in class
Looks a positive with a recent run

WEDONTTELLLIES

Should have every chance
He has had some bad draws

Drawn 13/13 at Bath in April
Drawn 19/20 at Ascot in May

He then won at Goodwood

Ran in Epsom's baby dash
Not well very draw in stall 4
His first run  on softer ground
Happy to forgive last time out
Ran well in a tiny field on soft

Selection

WEDONTTELLLIES 5/1-11/2

Each Way











Leicester 2.11

3/1 Turnstile, 7/2 Havana Gift, 5/1 Tamam Star
6/1 Dream On Kent, 8/1 Dreamlover, 10/1 Vinery
12/1 Beach Ahead, 16/1 Champagne Charlee
16/1 South West, 20/1 Little Mester
66/1 Yankeedoodledandy.

2yo Seller (6f)

Should be between 5-6

DREAMLOVER one of those
Rejected with the worst draw

HAVANA GIFT is a filly
She ran just 2 days ago
Normally its an advantage
But a filly from a 5f race

Go back to 2007
Every 2yo seller over 6f
Any time of the season
Open to both sexes

Fillies from 5f races
With under 5 career starts
Running within 9 days are 1-25
Running within 4 days are 0-9
HAVANA GIFT is next to try

In fields of 6 or more runners 
Fillies from 5f races
With under 5 career starts
Running within 9 days are 0-23
HAVANA GIFT fails this statistic
Not a negative but unsafe profile

DREAM ON KENT

May not be the best of these
But could make the running
And be quite difficult to catch

TAMAM STAR

Ran in a hot York Seller
Had the widest of the draw
Higher than all past winners
That was a valid excuse 

TURNSTILE beat him there
And has come out since then
With a decent run 4 days ago
Just pushes me more to him

HAVANA GIFT

Now a non runner
  
Thats killed some options
With prices now shorter

TURNSTILE

Most likely winner
But going for this split stake

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet DREAM ON KENT 7/2

£3.50 Win Bet TURNSTILE 7/4











Sandown 2.25

7/2 Indalo, 4/1 Tribal Chief, 5/1 Beagle Bay
15/2 River King, 10/1 Classic, 11/1 Ebt's Guard
11/1 Hard Endeavor, 14/1 Sea Force, 16/1 City Of Poets
16/1 Ozat, 20/1 Bourbon Blues, 20/1 Liberty Lane
25/1 Mirsky, 33/1 Balmacara, 33/1 Excellent Believe
40/1 Popmaster 

Coral Challenge

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-110
  
Horses drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-62 record since 2011

Goes a bit deeper than that

Go back to 2011
Sandown 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Excluding 1 jump jockeys race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-148 record in them
The following horses fail this

POPMASTER 
BALMACARA
SEA FORCE
EXCELLENT BELIEVE
BEAGLE BAY
OZAT

Go back to 2011
Sandown 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Horses with over 14 runs
Absent more than 15 days
Drawn in stall 9 or higher
Return a 0-122 record
The following horses fail this

POPMASTER 
LIBERTY LANE 

LIBERTY LANE rated 110
Will find that hard to overcome

Horses with over 4 runs
Officially rated 103 or more
Have a poor 1-36 record
LIBERTY LANE fails this

He also drops from 1m 2f
Horses from 10f or more
Have a 0-23 record in this
LIBERTY LANE fails this
BOURBON BLUES does

Horses aged 3
Running in the last 6 weeks
Have a 0-25 record in this
BOURBON BLUES fails this

CITY OF POETS is a 4yo
Won a handicap last time out
But that was in a lower grade

Horses from handicaps
In class 3 or lower are 0-41
CITY OF POETS would be first

TRIBAL CHIEF is a 5yo
He has a nasty 56 day break

Horses with over 8 runs
Absent more than 29 days
Have a 0-30 record in this
The following horses fail this

TRIBAL CHIEF 
SEA FORCE

TRIBAL CHIEF is short of runs
He's raced just once in 97 days

Horses aged 5 or more
With 1 run in 3 months
Return a 0-17 record
TRIBAL CHIEF fails this too

Horses from 7f races
Running this season
Have a 0-30 record in this
MIRSKY fails this as a 7yo

RIVER KING also fails this
Would not make him a negative
But no winners were like him
 
OZAT
BEAGLE BAY
HARD ENDEAVOUR 

CLASSIC is a 6yo
Exposed tries to win off 99
He's won off 95 but no higher
He won this last year rated 87
That was in a bit smaller field
Tries to win again 12lbs higher
That might be asking a bit much

Winners in the following years

2013 2020 2021 2022 2023
Came from Ascot's Hunt Cup

So do the following horses
 
INDALO

EBT'S GUARD

They finished 3rd and 4th there

INDALO emerged with more credit
As he had a much harder draw
And he failed some major angles

EBT'S GUARD failed some too
And he is a much bigger price
But he is exposed with 9st 6lbs
Needs a career best rated 104

INDALO is a 5yo
He's had 2 runs this season
Would have liked another run

No 5yo with under 14 runs
Won with just 1-2 runs that year
Only 8 failed and 4 placed
INDALO has this profile

HARD ENDEAVOUR is a 4yo
He comes from a good trial race
Not unlike the 2015 winner of this
Stall 9 is just about acceptable

Selection
 
£4.00 Each Way HARD ENDEAVOUR 8/1-9/1

£2.00 Win Bet INDALO 7/2 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5










Newmarket 2.40

10/11 Tiffany, 6/1 Tattycoram, 9/1 Caught U Sleeping
9/1 Lava Stream, 10/1 Crepe Suzette, Miss Justice
16/1 Lady Roisia, 25/1 Lady Dora Mae, 33/1 Sharpen.

Lancashire Oaks

Fillies Group 2 (12f)

Normally run at Haydock

TIFFANY rated 112

Faces horses rated 102 or less

She has a big ratings edge here
But just the 1 run in 8 months
She is coming back 20 days later
Must be a danger she bounces
Running in France very recently
Makes her harder to read properly 
She could easily win or lose this

One or two horses
Fail breeding statistics
  
LAVA STREAM is a 5yo 
 
Horses sired by Too Darn Hot
Running over 9f and more
Class 2 and higher grade
Absent more than 38 days
Return a 0-30 record
LAVA STREAM 31st to try
Would not be my first choice

CAUGHT U SLEEPING a 3yo
Comes from a very weak sire

Horses sired by Cotai Glory
Running on turf over 1m 3f +
Have a 0-48 record so far
Must be asking a lot
For this sire to get a winner
Over 1m 4f in Group 2 class
CAUGHT U SLEEPING fails this

CREPE SUZETTE is from a sire
Whose runners in listed/group races
Have not yet won over 12f or more
Only 9 tried but none have won
She does look like she stays 12f
Not worried about it but unproven

If those sire stats work
TIFFANY's chance is increased

LADY ROISIA looks underraced
None of the outsiders appealed

There is a best profile horse
 
Best profile
 
Horses aged 4
Just 1 run this season
Absent over 4 weeks
More than 4 career runs
Coming from 1m 2f or more
Have a strong 7-24 record
Winning in these years 

2011 2013 2015
2017 2018 2020 2021        

TATTYCORAM has this profile

Her 64 day break
Could be an advantage
May have been laid out

A bit weak in the market
But that could change later
Going to split stake this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet TATTYCORAM 13/2-7/1 
 
£4.00 Win Bet TIFFANY 5/4










Naas 3.08

5/2 Nouvel Espoir, 11/2 Bold Optimist, 8/1 Tawaazon
17/2 Arctic Steps, 10/1 Cactus, 10/1  Phil's Dream
11/1 Harry's Hill,  Ardadslosttheplot, 14/1 Jordan Breeze
14/1 Sovereign Cry, 16/1 Lethimfly, 20/1 White Smoke
25/1 Billboa

5f Handicap

Apprentice Riders

Looks a wide open race

Not going to spend long here

ARCTIC STEPS is topweight
And a filly with several weeks off

NOUVEL ESPOIR a 6yo
Won last time 15 days ago
But this is a career high mark
His jockey's never ridden a winner

Not keen on the 3 year olds

CACTUS a 3yo doesn't look ready
ARDADSLOSTTHEPLOT another 3yo
Hard to like with months off the track

WHITE SMOKE only a 3yo filly
SOVEREIGN CRY another 3yo
Will do well to win with 9st 12lbs

BOLD OPTIMIST is rejected
Without any race in 106 days
LETHIMFLY has the widest draw
PHIL'S DREAM looks underraced
BILLBOA has an unfit profile

Several I can't rule out
 
JORDAN BREEZE a 4yo
Has had some excuses this year

Not least at Down Royal last time
Where I think he went off too fast
Small stakes liked him best of all


Selection

JORDAN BREEZE 8/1-15/2 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4









Leicester 3.20

6/4 A Daughters Love, 4/1 Beryl's Girl
5/1 Kameel, 6/1 Charencey, 16/1 Arc At Her
16/1 City Escape, Diamond Aura, 25/1 Argentum
25/1 Bel Air Flyer, 25/1 Hachiman.

10f Handicap

Class 6 race

Nasty looking race

A DAUGHTERS LOVE the favourite
Probably the hardest horse to read  
Coming here from a toxic stable
Can't fully trust her or rule here out

BERYL'S GIRL is drawn 10 of 10
That is the worst draw over 1m 2f

CHARENCEY an exposed 6yo
Has raced once in just 77 days
Can't rule her out despite that


KAMEEL is interesting

He does carry topweight

But he has recent excuses

His sire
Has never bred any winner
Over 12f or more before
That gives her genuine excuses
For 3 of her last 4 races
Which were over 12f 12f 14f
This drop in trip must suit him

His last run here over 12f
Was too far from the worst draw

He won a novice as a 3yo
That killed his handicap mark
Rated 81 after that victory
He was never as good as that

He has not won since
But has dropped from 81 to 55
Now topweight facing 0-54 horses
His best chance of winning again

Selection

KAMEEL 7/2 

Each Way
 








Beverley 3.24

5/4 Emerald Bay, 13/8 Amantha
5/1 Farndale, 14/1 Happy Humpo
20/1 Tiger In The Tree.

7f Nursery

Class 6 race

EMERALD BAY is favourite
He comes from a 5f race

Go back to 2006
Nurseries over 7f
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with under 6 runs
Coming from a 5f race
Absent more than 28 days
Carrying 8st 11lbs or more
Return a 0-49 record in them
EMERALD BAY fails this
Only just but he does fail
 
HAPPY HUMPO

Has not done much yet
Bought for only a grand 

AMANTHA has 5 runs

Every other horse in the race
Has raced only 3 times before

She has the shortest absence

Surprised he is not favourite

Not certain she is good enough

But the most enticing profile

I'm interested each way 9/4

Even with a doubt about her class

But will leave that up to you
Instead having a saver bet


Selection

£8.75 Win Bet AMANTHA 9/4 

£1.25 Win Bet FARNDALE 13/2








Sandown 4.47

7/2 Barbury Boy, 4/1 Akho Mezzna
4/1 Bridge Of Eagles, 5/1 Tambora, 11/2 Loblolly
7/1 Sassicaia, 10/1 St Hilda, 40/1 Valpovo

3yo Handicap 10f

The topweights are unsafe

VALPOVO has an unit profile
SASSICAIA has 56 days off

The last 25 winners
Raced within 49 days
SASSICAIA does not do this

Past renewals show
Horses with over just 2 runs
Absent more than 35 days
Have a 0-45 record in this  
The following horses fail 

SASSICAIA 
ST HILDA

LOBLOLY has 9 runs

AKHO MEZZNA has 7 runs

They are the most exposed
Most recent winners
Had fewer runs than that

If you go back to 2010
Horses with over 6 career runs
Who were beaten last time out
Have a 0-29 record in the race
The following horses fail 

LOBLOLY
AKHO MEZZNA

BRIDGE OF EAGLES has positives
But he also has the worst draw

BARBURY BOY is improving
He needs to improve again to win
But several recent winners like him
Who won class 4 handicaps last time
Maybe able to improve enough

TAMBORA looks quite solid
At a disadvantage last time
Faced more experienced types

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet TAMBORA 4/1

£1.50 Win Bet BARBURY BOY 11/2-6/1.

 

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