9 Previews
0 Account Bet 





Account Bet 

Split Stake 

Lingfield 1.15

£6.00 Win Bet WUJJOOD 5/1 -9/2

£4.00 Win Bet MORROPHORE 5/4 







Final Deliberations


Saturday

Lets hope it is a rewarding one

The message feels reasonable   
But anticipating a stressful day  
Given a Lingfield account bet   
And the Manchester Derby too
 
9 Previews

3 Lingfield
2 Haydock
2 Ascot
2 Navan

Mentioned a horse mid week 
That was a likely account bet
But worried it may be too short

That horse was Morrophore
After a few considerations
Decided to make her a saver

She looks a rock solid saver 
Something I like in a main bet
Thats why it is on the account

Lingfield 1.15 

£6.00 Win Bet WUJJOOD 5/1 -9/2

£4.00 Win Bet MORROPHORE 5/4 



Not the most ambitious of bets
Wujjood winning gets a 9/4-5/2 winner
Morrophore winning we are level




Sunday

Could have waited for a sunday bet
There is a fascinating race tomorrow

Where 3 of the first 4 in the market
All fail the same generic statistic !

Monday 

Not decided what to do here 
The Surrey Grand National  
Could be an interesting race


The Peter Marsh chase
Looks a bit pathetic this year

But there are strong angles
And I fancy this split stake 


Haydock 2.00

£8.00 Win Bet JOHNNYWHO  7/2-100/30 

£2.00 Win Bet KONFUSION 4/1


The other possible bet was this

Ascot 2.53

£7.00 Win Bet TRIPOLI FLYER 7/1-15/2

£3.00 Win Bet CAME FROM NOWHERE 5/2

If my negatives work out
This race is blow apart
Tripoli flyer begins to look
Like he is different class

But he lacks momentum
Was not sure how to stake it
Whether to go each way 7/1
Or have the above win-saver

Hoping for a good message

Most likely scenario

The account bet breaks level

If so we could go again sunday









Preview Selections  

Lingfield 11.30
£7.00 Win Bet Double Combo 9/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Morbeh 9/4

Navan 12.10
Zeus Power 6/1-11/2 
Each Way

Lingfield 1.15  
£6.00 Win Bet Wujjood 5/1-9/2
£6.00 Win Bet Morrophore 5/4
 
Navan 1.50 
£7.00 Win Bet Johnny Cakes 11/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Teds Corner 11/4

Lingfield 1.55
Northern Empire 3/1100/30
Each Way

Haydock 2.00
£8.00 Win Bet Johnnywho 7/2-100/30 
£2.00 Win Bet Konfusion 4/1

Ascot 2.20 
Vincenzo 2/1 
Win Bet
 
Haydock 2.35
£4.00 Win Bet Kyntara 7/1-8/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Dalston Lad 4/5-10/11 
£1.00 Win Bet Both Barrels 10/1-11/1

Ascot 2.53
£7.00 Win Bet Tripoli Flyer 7/1-13/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Came From Nowhere 5/2









Yesterday's Summary  
 
Decent message with 4 winners
Previews went L W W L W W P
Started with a losing bet though
True Promise finished in second
The saver finished in third place
With hindsight just badly staked
Should have gone each way 4/1
Moneygarrow won in the next
Experience paid off in the finish
He drifted late and returned 5/2
Nice to see him win after drifting
Ribble Vibe was beaten second
But we then had 2 more winners
Bluey won having looked beaten
Got matched at 500/1 in running
No idea how he got home first
Potters Charm won the next race
The Hardest Geezer got a place
Overall a quality accurate day







PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Lingfield 11.30

6/4 Lord Mayor, 3/1 Morbeh
4/1 Double Combo, 6/1 Onyeisi
13/2 Snaafy

3yo Handicap 10f

ONYEISI
SNAAFY

Lightest weighted
The most recent runs
But both of these horses
Come from Class 6 races
Their figures reflect this
I would have thought it likely
One of the higher weights
Coming from maiden/novices
Coming from stronger stables
May be able to cope with them

LORD MAYOR one of them
He looks a tall gangly type
Started 80/1 on his last start
That and a cheap purchase price
Puts me off him and onto others

MORBEH is a positive

Smaller horse like his mother

Going to make him a saver

DOUBLE COMBO

Cost 375,000 Gns as a yearling
Does not always mean that much
But the favourite cost only £9000
He has already beaten Morbeh


Selection

£7.00 Win Bet DOUBLE COMBO 9/2

£3.00 Win Bet MORBEH 9/4










Navan 12.10

11/10 Lazare de Star, 5/2 Fierce Handay
9/2 Bon Viveur, 5/1 Zeus Power, 8/1 Welonlyhavedone
25/1 Chase The Moon, 33/1 Good Deal, 50/1 Khmer.

Novice Hurdle 2m

Should involve 4 horses

LAZARE DE STAR favourite

Looks a classy prospect

When I ran his profile
Coming down half a mile
There was some weakness

January
Novice hurdles over 2m
Horses aged 5
Coming from 2m 4f races
Under 16 lifetime starts
Running in the last 4 weeks
Have a nasty 1-75 record
The sole winner in 2007
And he didn't win last time

That profile raises a doubt

FIERCE HANDAY a 6yo
Also drops down half a mile
His profile is better for a 6yo

BON VIVEUR is quite raw
Can't be ruled out from Mullins

Wan't to take the favourite on

Going to side with Joseph

Selection
 
ZEUS POWER 6/1-11/2

Each Way








Lingfield 1.15

11/8 Morrophore, 3/1 Sky Safari, 7/1 Wujjood
8/1 True Colors, 10/1 Unassuming, 12/1 Lady Of Arabia
20/1 Kimeko Glory, 25/1 Aiming High, 33/1 Bint Al Daar
50/1 Thankyou Baroness.

Fillies Handicap 10f

MORROPHORE

Topweight

Won the trial race for this
Ryan Moore takes the ride
This is her long term target

The 2022 2023 2024 winners
All won the same trial race

MORROPHORE is rated 101

What I like about this handicap

Get Sky Safari (rated 99) beat

Then she only faces a 0-90 field

SKY SAFARI is sired by Zoustar

Horses sired by Zoustar
Running over 10f and more
Absent more than 34 days
Return a 0-41 record so far
SKY SAFAR fails this angle

Will she stay absent 58 days ?
Probably will on this easy track
But there has to be some doubt

MORROPHORE

Most likely winner
But he is very short 11/10
And as a 5 year old
Older than all past winners

At the prices
Going to make him a saver

WUJJOOD looks a big runner

All 4 past winners
Were 4 year olds like him

Unraced as a 2yo
After being injured before debut

She was playing catch up as a 3yo

She won one of her 5 races
But has some decent figures
Suggesting she is well treated

From a top class stable
She gets 13lbs weight
From the favourite and saver


Selection 

£6.00 Win Bet WUJJOOD 5/1 -9/2

£4.00 Win Bet MORROPHORE 5/4 




Navan 1.50

11/4 Shellrunforbriggs, 3/1 Teds Corner
6/1 Johnny Cakes, 13/2 High Notions, 8/1 Low Style
10/1 Magic Boum, One Big Boum, 12/1 Herculaneum
14/1 Queen Nel, 20/1 Teescomponentsyess
33/1 Little Boy Sivola.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Tough race

But full of questionable profiles

Go back to 2010
Navan handicap hurdles
Run over 2m 1f and more
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with under 5 runs
And under 4 hurdle races
Absent more than 20 days
Return a 0-116 record
The following both fail this

HIGH NOTIONS
SHELLRUNFORBRIGGS

LOW STYLE is a 9yo
Raced just once in 11 months
And beaten 92 lengths in that

QUEEN NEL is underraced
MAGIC BOUM is underraced
HERCULANEUSM off too long

ONE BIG BOUM is respected
But he has plenty of weight
And is not the biggest of horses

Can only shortlist 2

They met each other last time

TEDS CORNER 11/4

JOHNNY CAKES 11/2
 
Selection

£7.00 Win Bet JOHNNY CAKES 11/2

£3.00 Win Bet TEDS CORNER 11/4






Lingfield 1.55

7/4 Jungle Ruler, 9/4 Factual
9/2 Northern Empire, 6/1 Pinatubo's Legacy
12/1 All You Can Be, 20/1 Bennyworth
25/1 Charles Darnay, 100/1 Bear Steps.

7f Novice

Should be between 4
 
FACTUAL is favourite

He was the cheapest of the 4
Might win but has months off
Hardly from the safest trainer
Or from the safest sire either
To assume he will be at peak
And he carries a penalty too

PINATUBOS LEGACY a 4yo
Concedes weight to the 3yo's
Might win but not first choice
He downgrade yards so early
He had not even ran before it

JUNGLE RULER has claims
Gelded weak in the market
Butcould not rule him out

NORTHERN EMPIRE 

Cost £200k

Ran into a smart one last time
Big gap back to the 3rd horses
He looks the percentage bet

Selection

NORTHERN EMPIRE 100/30

Each Way







Haydock 2.00

9/4 Myretown, 5/2 Konfusion, 3/1 Johnnywho
13/2 Royale Pagaille, 10/1 Richmond Lake
12/1 Imperial Saint.

Peter Marsh Chase

Statistics sent midweek

The race has badly cut up
Only 6 horses declared
Not doing a long preview

ROYAL PAGAILLE a 12yo 
Failed a lot of angles with 12st

I said midweek
My angles passed just 2 horses

JOHNNYWHO

KONFUSION


Do not like the others

MYRETOWN is a 9yo
Fell on his seasonal debut
Favourite in the Hennessy
So do have to respect him 

But form and fitness
Were not proven last time
He fails a couple of angles

Go back to 2000
No horse aged 9 or more
Absent more than 4 weeks
Carrying 10st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-36 record in them
MYRETOWN has this profile

Go back to the 2000 renewal
Horses aged 9 or more
Under 10 chase starts
Carrying 10st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-34 record in this
MYRETOWN has this profile

IMPERIAL SAINT is respected
He is coming up 5f in distance
Which is not a positive in this


Staying with my shortlist
 
KONFUSION is the saver
Seems weak in the market
 
JOHNNYWHO

Previewed his last 4 races

Made him a big negative
In all of his 4 previous races
Failing bucket loads of angles

Could be better than showed
He has been badly placed 
Yet still runs some smart figures
Well in advance of his rating

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet JOHNNYWHO  7/2-100/30 

£2.00 Win Bet KONFUSION 4/1







Ascot 2.20

2/1 Vincenzo, 5/1 Bad, 11/2 Scarface
7/1 Etalon, 8/1 Hitman, 9/1 Neon Moon
11/1 Heltenham, 14/1 Fugitif
14/1 Jungle Boogie.
 
Handicap Chase 2m 5f

Horses rated 0-155

14 past renewals
 
Number of chase runs

27 Hitman
23 Heltenham
23 Neon Moon
23 Fugitif
19  Scarface
16 Etalon
11 Bad
07 Jungle Boogie
06 Vincenzo


Lot of exposed horses in this

There are 4 horses
With 23 of more chase runs

All 14 past winners
Had under 21 chase runs
Those with more are 0-20
This stat takes out several 

ELATON has 16 chase runs
He needs a career best to win

Very few lightly raced chasers
JUNGLE BOOGIE one of them
Not for me as a 12 year old

SCARFACE is respected
But 19 chase runs is plenty

He was 4th in last years race
Higher rating more weight today
 
But on his most recent figure
You have to give him a chance
But all previous winner is this
Were lighter raced than he is

BAD is shortlistable
As a lighter raced chaser
But disappointed last time out

VINCENZO

Least exposed chaser in this

Paddy Power Gold Cup 2nd

December Gold Cup 2nd

Both good enough to take this
He has right handed form too

More scope than all his rivals
He has the clear best profile

Selection

VINCENZO 7/4

Win Bet







Haydock 2.35

3/1 Dalston Lad, 9/2 Solar System
6/1 Kyntara, Phantomofthepoints
13/2 Both Barrels, 7/1 Heather Honey
11/1 Icare Allen, 12/1 Pinot Rouge
25/1 Stay Away Fay, 33/1 Inis Oirr.
 
Handicap Hurdle 3m

14 Past renewals
 
STAY AWAY FAY has topweight
Hard to like him on his recent runs

Hard to like many of these

SOLAR SYSTEM a 7yo
Has not raced in 301 days

HEATHER HONEY is a mare
She is going up in class here

No past winner
Had more than 19 hurdle runs
ICARE ALLEN has had 33
Easily the most exposed

DALSTON LAD has 3 hurdle runs
Easily the most experienced horse
Dan Skelton trains he looks sexy
But is not like any past winners
 
Horses aged 6
Have a 0-24 record in this race
DALSTON LAD is the next to try
 
All 14 previous winners
Had at least 6 hurdle races
DALSTON LAD only has 3  
 
PHANTOMOFTHEPOINTS an 8yo
Might win but not very orthodox
Having fell in a chase last time
INIS OIRR is running below form
PINOT ROUGE has a poor profile
  
 
KYNTARA has a chance

BOTH BARRELS shortlisted

Feels a confusing race

DALSTON LAD the favourite
Fails my angles in this race
But similar types won elsewhere
He is crying out for this distance

Gut instinct says

Make him a place saver

And go for a split stake selection

Selection


£4.00 Win Bet KYNTARA 7/1-8/1

£5.00 Place Bet DALSTON LAD 4/5-10/11

£1.00 Win Bet BOTH BARRELS 10/1-11/1









Ascot 2.53

11/4 Came From Nowhere, 7/2 Surrey Lord
6/1 Faivoir, 15/2 Tripoli Flyer, 8/1 Moveit Like Minnie
9/1 Marche d'Aligre, 10/1 Thanksforthehelp
12/1 Samuel Spade, 16/1 Patriotik, 22/1 Metier.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

14 Past renewals
 
The previous 9 winners
Had the following hurdle runs

7 5 2 5 6 7 8 7 6

Lightly raced hurdlers
Have so far always taken this

Horses with over 9 hurdles
Have a 0-32 record in this
The following all fail this

MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE 
THANKSFORTHEHELP
METIER
PATRIOTIK
SAMUEL SPADE
FAIVOIR

If the above angle works out

It presents an interesting issues
Nased on their official ratings

140 TRIPOLI FLYER  
124 CAME FROM NOWHERE  
122 MARCHE DALIGRE  
118 SURREY LORD  

TRIPOLI FLYER rated 140

Would only face a 0-124 class field

He could outclass the lower rated

Comes from a Grade 1 hurdle
Not ideal but it has been done

He looks a big price at 8/1
Just not sure about the place
Class profile but no momentum

Because of that

Going win and saver

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet TRIPOLI FLYER 7/1-15/2

£3.00 Win Bet CAME FROM NOWHERE 5/2


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