8 Previews
1 Account Bet 
  


Account Bet 

Bangor 2.15 

£7.00 Win Bet JOYEUX MACHIN 7/2 

£3.00 Win Bet NO TACKLE 5/2 







Final Deliberations
 
It has been a tiresome boring week  
The week after Cheltenham often is

Keen to get some momentum back 
And get back onto the main account

Message has plenty of variety
Mixture of soft and hard races
Would have liked another hour
But happy enough no complaints

Unusually for a Saturday 
There are 2 Southwell previews
Both had the potential to be bets
Market has screwed me in one
But more interested in this race



Southwell 1.43

£8.00 Win Bet AMERJEET 5/1 

£2.00 Win Bet MOUNT RUAPEHU 4/1-9/2

Shame there are just 7 runners
Amerjeet was unlucky last time
Impression was "win next time"
But such a badly framed race
And he can flatter to deceive
But don't feel he should be 5/1




Navan 2.32 

£8.00 Win Bet CATCHABIRD 9/2-5/1

£2.00 Win Bet MAXIOS PRINCE 7/2 

This might have developed into a bet
I wanted an each way and saver bet too
Not possible now at the current odds
And not every firm will offer us 1-2-3-4




Account Bet


Bangor 2.15 

£7.00 Win Bet JOYEUX MACHIN 7/2 

£3.00 Win Bet NO TACKLE 5/2



Win lose or draw

Will settle things down

Not been too ambitious today

Shorter priced account bet

But the last 2 were 16/1 +



There could be a class angle

Would be a bet around 2/1-9/4
With money back on the danger
We just need 1 angle to work out





The final previews 7 and 8

Not so confident about those



Preview 1 is a short price win bet
Preview 3 has been compromised 
Because of a very late non runner 


You could combine these 2 races

Pivot to this each way double 

Bangor 1.07 - Tommy Pickles 6/4

Navan 1.55 - Kilgame 9/4-5/2

Each Way Double


Will leave that up to you

 

  
Whatever happens today

Will be back on Sunday

With a nice Irish flat card 










 
Preview Selections 
 
Bangor 1.07 
Tommy Pickles 6/4
Win Bet

Southwell 1.43
£8.00 Win Bet Amerjeet 5/1-11/2
£2.00 Win Bet Mount Ruapehu 4/1-9/2

Navan 1.55
Kilgame 9/4-5/2
Win Bet

Bangor 2.15 
£7.00 Win Bet Joyeux Machin 7/2-4/1
£3.00 Win Bet  No Tackle 5/2-11/4
  
Southwell 2.20
£7.50 Win Bet Fifty Sent 4/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Heretic 7/2-3/1

Navan 2.32
£8.00 Win Bet Catchabird 9/2-5/1
£2.00 Win Bet Maxios Prime 7/2 

Newbury 3.00   
£3.00 Each Way Queenofthejukebox 14/1-12/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Charisma Cat 11/8-6/4 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 (5)
  
Navan 4.17
£4.50 Each Way Koori Star 11/2 (Betfair)
£1.00 Win Bet Built By Ballymore 12/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4







PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 
 
  
Bangor 1.07

7/4 Mossy Fen Coolio, 7/4 Tommy Pickles
9/2 Double Indemnity, 10/1 Annual Invitation
20/1 Donald Jump, Jorah d'Alma, 25/1 Drakaris,
25/1 McElhattan, 33/1 Good Boy Griff
40/1 Gimarias
 
Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

TOMMY PICKLES

The most hurdling experience
The best figures in the race

He was my best bet last time
Underwhelmed he came 2nd
Was expecting a little better
May have better a decent type

MOSSY FEN COOLIO

Fails a serious angle

But it's not as bad as it sounds

Go back to 2007
Every maiden hurdle
Run over 2m 2f and more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 6 or older
Under 2 lifetime starts
Just 1 hurdle race
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Absent over 34 days
Return a 1-214 record
MOSSY FEN COOLIO fails this

Whilst 1-214 is a vicious profile
The vast majority were outsiders
Only about 12 of them fancied
So not suggesting a negative
But he's ran once in 13 months

DOUBLE INDEMNITY looks raw

TOMMY PICKLES in contrast
Recent runs and a safer profile
Going to give him 1 more chance

Selection

TOMMY PICKLES 6/4

Win Bet










Southwell 1.43

7/4 Tuscan Point, 7/2 Moonhall Lass
11/2 Mount Ruapehu, 6/1 Amerjeet, 7/1 Ardaddy
6/1 Bullington Bry, 20/1 Up The Monk

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

TUSCAN POINT rated 65

The class horse facing a 0-58

He won here only 10 days ago
Given he had a 149 day absence
Comes back only 10 days later
There is a chance he may bounce

Similar 6f handicaps
Run during March
Show 4 year olds
With over 8 career runs
Just 1 run in 4 months
Running within 16 days
Have a 0-15 record in them

January to May
6f Handicaps
Run in class 6
Show 4 year olds
With over 8 career runs
Just 1 run in 4 months
Running within 16 days
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-37 record in them
TUSCAN POINT fails this

UP THE MONK is scoring badly

MOONHALL LASS is a 4yo filly
No doubt she is well handicapped 
Has a recent stable upgrade too
But she is short of runs this year
No market confidence in her either
  
Prefer the 4 horses
Who had very recent runs
And come with fit profiles

BURLINGTON BRY
MOUNT RUAPEHU
AMERJEET
ARDADDY



ARDADDY is down in trip
Has the outside draw of 7

The other 3 horses
Met each other last week

Ran in a rough race over 6f

AMERJEET met serious trouble
Felt he had every chance here

Just 7 runners though

We could save on the favourite
And ignore the risk of bouncing

Going in this direction instead

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet AMERJEET 5/1 

£2.00 Win Bet MOUNT RUAPEHU 4/1-9/2











Navan 1.55

4/1 Begorra Man, 4/1 Famous Figure, 4/1  Munsif, 
9/2 Kilgame, 5/1 Newbrook Diamond, 14/1 Cloudio
20/1 Fun Daddy, 25/1 Always Scoring, 33/1 Auntie Ida
33/1 Baby Fish, 33/1 Blue Du Neuf, 33/1 Chopsticks
33/1 Theabsolutegov'nor, 33/1 Youknowthecode
50/1 Boogie Inthejungle, Herecomesmybaby
66/1 Cloonbonniffe, 66/1 Lanzhou, 66/1 Orinoco Walk
100/1 Calm Flight Ahead, 100/1 Castlerock Lady
100/1 Clonbury Court, Mac An Fiach, Microscope
100/1 Ur My Fav, 100/1 Zarushio.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Big field 

Plenty of deadwood

MUNSIF shades favouritism

Love the stable but only a 4yo

Going to hope this angle
Is a clue we should oppose

Go back to 2009
January to August
Navan
Maiden and Novice Hurdles
Open to all aged horses

Horses aged 4
Have a nasty 1-87 record
That came in a mares only race
Male 4 year olds are 0-37
MUNSIF fails this angle

He has quality flat form
So would not argue a negative
But rather have an older horse


There are 3-4 options

BEGORRA MAN one of them
But he is the only horse in this
Who comes from a bumper
Thats fine but all his dangers
Have hurdling experience

NEWBROOK DIAMOND a 6yo
Would not be a surprise winner 
KILLGAME beat him last time
And cost significantly more too

FAMOUS FIGURE has a chance

KILLGAME appeals more

Wanted to go each way

But a non runner killed that


Selection

KILLGAME  5/2-11/4

Win Bet









Bangor 2.15

7/4 Bo Cruz, 5/2 Joyeux Machin
4/1 Val Dancer, 9/2 No Tackle
8/1 Castle Robin

Handicap Chase 3m

JOYEUX MACHIN is topweight

Big drop in class for him 

Lost 35 lengths at Ascot
But he was among 3 horses
Who set quite a fast pace
May have done too much
As hold up horses came through
And filled the 1-2-3 places there

VAL DANCER
Was 4th in the Eider Chase
That race is a grueling test
It can take a lot out of a horse

Not a strong angle
As this is a very small field
But he drops over a mile in trip
And few horses run in the Eider
And win next time out as he tries

Go back to 2007
March
Any and every race
Any distance
Any class 
Horses from the Eider
Finishing in that race
Running within 28 days
Have a 1-64 record in them
That winner was a 7 year old
VAL DANCER has this profile
 
CASTLE ROBIN is 11 years old
He has not had a run in 543 days

If we can get this pair beaten

VAL DANCER
CASTLE ROBIN

JOYEUX MACHIN then rated 132
Only faces a 0-113 class field
May be able to outclass these

BO CRUZ is an improver
But been nowhere near this class

NO TACKLE has proven more

Split staking this

Selection
 
£7.00 Win Bet JOYEUX MACHIN 7/2-4/1

£3.00 Win Bet NO TACKLE 5/2-11/4










Southwell 2.20

7/2 Ribston Pippin, 4/1 Fifty Sent, 6/1 Heretic
6/1 Volendam, 13/2 Conquest Of Power, 8/1 Mr Fustic
12/1 Dinah Myte, 12/1 Trais Fluors, 16/1 Scenario,
20/1 Create, 33/1 Coverbridge

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-55

Opposing the following

CONQUEST OF POWER a 6yo
Bottomweight and up from 6f to 8f

DINAH MYTE a filly off 145 days

SCENARIO has poor figures
COVERBRIDGE with a break
CREATE looks underraced
TRAIS FLUORS a 12yo up in trip

VOLENDAM is a 4yo filly
Not a negative but drawn in stall 1
Can't find many fillies winning 

RIBSTON PIPPIN is unsafe
Last time out winners like him
All had more shorter absences

MR FUSTIC has a chance
But he is 8 years old now
Has raced just once in 109 days

FIFTY SENT is shortlisted
  
HERETIC off the same rating
Has achieved a little bit more

Best option
May be a win and place bet
FIFTY SENT as a place saver
But hard to get that bet on

HERETIC each way

Was Plan A

But the price has shortened


Selection

£7.50 Win Bet FIFTY SENT 4/1

£2.50 Win Bet HERETIC 7/2-3/1








 
Navan 2.32

9/2 Rathbawn Soldier, 5/1 Maxios Prime
11/2 Tropical Twist, 6/1 Disco Dancer, Simple Things
7/1 Catchabird, 10/1 Sopelana, 12/1 Somersby Roost
12/1 Stiltellinemnuttin, 14/1 A Snow White Park
16/1 Elsannah, 33/1 Mercurial Sea.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m

DISCO DANCER topweight
Does not appeal right now

SOPELANA next in weights
Looks wrong as a 4 year old
Happy to oppose this age

SIMPLE THINGS only a 4yo

MAXIOS PRINCE a 5yo
Looks the class horse in this
That is running well enough to win

CATCHABIRD must be included
Winning at Wexford only 4 days ago

Several others look vulnerable

ELSABBAH last ran in 2023

TROPICAL TWIST has months off
MECURIAL SEA the same issue

SOMERSBY ROAD has 4 races
Beaten 11 lengths recently at 40/1 
Needed a better run than that
STILTELLINEMNUTTIN likewise

RATHBAWN SOLDIER

She's had just 4 runs
She did win last time out
That was only 17 days ago

Not overkeen on horses
Who are lightly raced
Coming back too quickly

Go back to 2007
February March April
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses under 6 years old
With under career 5 runs
Running in the last 20 days
Return a 0-26 record in them
RATHBAWN SOLDIER fails this

Can shortlist only 2

MAXIOS PRINCE is down in trip
I would prefer her going up in trip
So much stamina in the pedigree

CATCHABIRD must be on staking
I'd have liked a stronger stable 

They met each other 18 days ago
CATCHABIRD has been out since
That recent run swings it towards her

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CATCHABIRD 9/2-5/1

£2.00 Win Bet MAXIOS PRINCE 7/2 









Newbury 3.00 

3/1 Getawhisky, 5/1 Strong Run
13/2 Charisma Cat 7/1 Fresh As A Daisy, 8/1 Indannya
9/1 Watamu 12/1 Betty's Daisy, 14/1 Queenofthejukebox
16/1 Pismo Beach, Trinity Street, 20/1 Shotgun Shirley
22/1 Edith Pelham, 33/1 Future Bucks, Gaelic Saint
50/1 Ballynorth.


Mares Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
 
26 Past renewals

The only race of it's kind

Run at any time of the year
  
CHARISMA CAT has topweight 
Carrying 11st 12lbs wont be easy

Go back to 2004
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a weak 1-41 record since
Prepared to be flexible here
Opposing those with 11st 8lbs+
  
CHARISMA CAT
BETTY'S DAISY
WATAMU 

Horses absent over 29 days
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-34 record in this
The following horses fail this
 
CHARISMA CAT
BETTY'S DAISY
WATAMU
GETAWHISKY

Go back to 2004
Horses with under 5 hurdle runs
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-34 record in them
The following horses fail this

CHARISMA CAT
BETTY'S DAISY
WATAMU
GETAWHISKY 
INDANNYA
STRONG RUN
 
Go back to 2006
Every winner was rated 109 +
Horses rated lower are 0-132
The following horses fail this
 
GAELIC SAINT 
FUTURE BUCKS
QUEENOFTHEJUKEBOX 
BALLYNORTH
 
No horse under 6 years old
Has won with under 5 races (0-16)

TRINITY STREET has this profile 
INDANNYA also has this problem
  
Horses aged 5
Under 6 career starts
Under 4 hurdle races
Have a 0-18 record in this  
TRINITY STREET fails this

Go back to 2002
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from handicaps
Have a 0-58 record in them 
PISMO BEACH fails this
 
Horses with under 4 hurdles
Have a modest 6-111 record
None were aged 7 or more (0-24)
The following horses fail this

STRONG RUN
FRESH AS A DAISY
  
Go back to 2003
Horses running within 20 days
Have a 0-77 record in this race
  
INDANNYA
EDITH PELHAM
 
Go back to 1998
Horses from 2m races
They have a 1-42 record
That winner was last year
But overall a poor record
The following fail this stat
 
CHARISMA CAT 
WATAMU
GETAWHISKY 
INDANNYA 
TRINITY STREET   
 
My angles pinpointed 1 horse
Jonjo trained but does not run
Every other horse fails angles

Settled on a formula

That hopefully offers value

A lightweights

With more than 3 hurdle runs 
Getting weight from horses
Many who have less experience

QUEENOFTHEJUKEBOX fits
Mix up with a classy place saver

CHARISMA CAT looks that bet


Selection

£3.00 Each Way QUEENOFTHEJUKEBOX 14/1-12/1

£4.00 Place Bet CHARISMA CAT 11/8-6/4
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4 (5)








Navan 4.17

9/2 Showurappreciation, 6/1 Magic McColgan
6/1 Rokathir, 7/1 Maxi Mac Gold, Nelson County
8/1 Koori Star, 10/1 Built By Ballymore, Gringo d'Aubrelle
12/1 Bridie's Beau, 15/1 Kish Bank, Sammy Smart
20/1 West Of Carrig.
 
Novice Handicap Chase

Series Final Listed race

17 Past renewals

SHOWURAPPRECIATION an 8yo

Feels a bit short around 3/1

Comes from a hurdle race
No past winners did that

Has plenty of weight 11st 9lbs
Every winner bar 1 had less

Horses from a non graded race
Carrying 11st 6lbs or more
Have not won this race before (0-12) 
ROKATHIR fails this angle as well
NELSON COUNTY does as well
Felt he has other positives though

Horses aged 7 or more
With under 5 chase runs
Have a 0-34 record in this
The following horses fail this 

SHOWURAPPRECIATION
MAXI MAC GOLD
KISH BANK
ROKATHIR
MAGIC MCCOLGAN

BRIDIE'S BEAU looks underaced

GRINGO D'AUBRELLE hard to read
No past winners came down from 3m 4f

WEST OF CARRIG bottomweight
He is going up 5f in distance

Horses from 2m 3f or shorter
Won 2 of the 17 past renewals
Both ran within the last 15 days
WEST OF CARRIG has 44 days off

BUILT BY BALLYMORE an 8yo
Could easily outrun his odds here
If this does not come too quickly
 
KOORI STAR has every chance
Made him a big negative last time
Trying to win a listed race over 3m 3f 
Coming up from only a 2 mile race
That race was out of his stamina range

Selection

£4.50 Each Way KOORI STAR 11/2 (Betfair)

£1.00 Win Bet BUILT BY BALLYMORE 10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

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