8 Previews  
1 Account Bet 




Account Bet

Chester 3.03 

DARK THIRTY 5/1-11/2

Each Way











Final Deliberations
 
8 Previews
3 York
3 Newcastle
2 Chester

Been a difficult message to do
Started on the years hottest day 
Ended up with a lot of big prices
So not sure how things will go 
Cooler temperatures tomorrow
That will make things far easier

Much of the message
Could be a little too ambitions
Given the price of selections

Gone back on the account

 
Chester 3.03 

DARK THIRTY 5/1-11/2

Each Way


Interesting angles in this
He seems a pretty good fit
But this will be very tactical
Luck in running will be vital
Need the chips to fall right

Small stakes in others races

Prices tell us to expect little





Preview Selections   


 
Newcastle 1.40  
Sir Albert 12/1  
Each Way  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

York 1.55  
£4.50 Each Way Andesite 8/1  
£1.00 Win Bet Delinquent 9/1-10/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4
 
Chester 2.02 
The Dancing Pirate 13/8-6/4
Win Bet

Newcastle 2.10 
£4.50 Each Way Ferrous 14/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Poet Master 11/1-12/1  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

York 2.58
£5.00 Win Bet Qirat  12/1-11/1 
£5.00 Win Bet Never So Brave 1/1

Chester 3.03 
Dark Thirty 5/1-11/2
Each Way

Newcastle 3.15 
£7.50 Win Bet Bahadur 12/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Ride The Thunder 5/1
£1.00 Win Bet Kirchner 9/1

York 4.15
Explosive Finnish 11/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4












 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
  


Newcastle 1.40

4/1 Supido, 6/1 Bobby Bennu, 6/1 Caviar Cowboy
7/1 Tremolo, 7/1  Yorkshire, 8/1 Sergeant Wilko
10/1 Brighton Boy, Nikovo, 12/1 Sir Albert, 20/1 Korker
20/1 Witch Hunter, 25/1 Metal Merchant, Room Service
33/1 Rajeko.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-105

9 Past renewals
 
6 of the 9 renewals
Won by 4 year olds
With under 12 career runs
Dawn in stall 8 or lower
SUPIDO has this profile
But he has 4 weeks off
Would have preferred less

Opposing the oldest horses

WICH HUNTER
NIKOVO
KORKER

Only 1 previous winner
Had under 2 races that season
And he was quite lightly raced
The following horses are not 
And may be underraced this year

BOBBY BENNU
YORKSHIRE

TREMOLO is lightly raced
But has not ran in 310 days
ROOM SERVICE likewise

Since the track opened
Newcastle 7f handicaps
Run in class 2 show
Horses drawn 10 or higher
Absent more than 12 days
Have a 0-47 record in them
The following all fail this

KORKER
BRIGHTON BOY
SERGEANT WILKO
 
CAVIAR COWBOY is a 3yo
He only has 5 previous races

Go back to 1997
May June July
7f handicaps
Class 2 races
Open to all aged horses
Horses aged 3
Under 6 lifetime runs
Absent over 22 days
Return a 0-39 record
CAVIAR COWBOY fails this
 
SUPIDO is shortlistable
But does have a month off
He's very weak in the betting

SIR ALBERT

Not sure he has the class
But we are getting a big price
Badly ridden at Chester last time
When failing to capitalise drawn 1
Felt he ran better than it looked

Selection

SIR ALBERT 12/1 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4











York 1.55

9/2 Zennor Storm, 11/2 Andesite, 11/2 Frankies Dream
6/1 Golden Strike, 13/2 Delinquent, 15/2 Wild Nature
11/1 Blue To Blue, 16/1 Tailgunner Joe 20/1 Cadarn
20/1 Sujet, 25/1 Darkness, Wreck It Ryley 33/1 Eligible
33/1 Wahdan
 
8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-90

ZENOR STORM is a 3yo
Only 4 runs and drawn 12

Go back to 2006 
York 8f handicaps
Horses aged 3
Under 5 career runs
Drawn 7 or higher
Have a 0-41 record in them
ZENOR STORM fails this

Go back to 2008 
York 8f handicaps
Horses aged 3
Under 6 career runs
Drawn 8 or higher
Have a 0-57 record in them
ZENOR STORM also fails this
 
Opposing the highest drawn

York 8f handicaps
With under 17 runners
Horses under 6 years old
Absent more than 14 days
Drawn 14 or higher
Return a 0-63 record
TAILGUNNER JOE fails this
  
WAHDAN hasn't done enough
Has just downgraded stables
  
CADARN lacks positives
 
Go back to 1998
York 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or more
Who won a handicap last time
Over 7 furlongs or shorter
Absent more than 6 days
Return a 0-45 record in them
GOLDEN STRIKE fails this

Take the same sample of races
York 8f handicaps since 1998
No 3 year old
With more than 5 career runs
Have won from stall 11 or higher
Those that tried are 0-49 so far
BLUE TO BLUE fails this
TAILGUNNER JOE does too

FRANKIES DREAM

Has positives
Fit profile and running well
But never won in this class
Nor from his current rating
This also bothers me too
 
Go back to 1998
York 8f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Over 19 previous races
Carrying 9st 1lbs or more
Return a 0-64 record in them
FRANKIES DREAM fails this

Had to bet an exposed 4yo
With as much as 9st 9lbs
When none like her have won
Carrying 9st 2lbs and more
FRANKIES DREAM rejected
 
 
DELINQUENT

Could still be improving
Has a good draw to help
And a light weight as well
But the reason that weight
He is one of the lowest rated
Not sure he has the class

The highest weighted horses
Are all unfancied outsiders


WILD NATURE rated 88
An unexposed 4yo improver
Only faces a 0-84 class field
Maybe able to outclass these
This statistic suggests not

York Handicaps
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Over 9 career runs
Just 1 run in 4 months
Carrying 9st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-72 record
WILD NATURE fails this
 
ANDESITE is a 4yo
Unexposed has some momentum

Selection
 
£4.50 Each Way ANDESITE 8/1 

£1.00 Win Bet DELINQUENT 9/1-10/1
  
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4











Chester 2.02

6/4 Stardom Glory, 11/4 The Dancing Pirate
9/2 Deputy Vice, 13/2 Dreamlover, 8/1 Walt
50/1 Trust Havana

2yo Maiden 6f

Shapes like a 3 horse race

DEPUTY VICE one of those
Does have the outside stall
But could not rule him out

STARDOM GLORY has 2 runs
Sets the standard on those runs

What troubles me about him
Surprised how small he was

Could argue on this track
Being small is not a bad thing
But not sure what scope he has
Pushes me towards his rival

Selection

THE DANCING PIRATE 13/8-6/4

Win Bet











Newcastle 2.10
 
4/1 Diligent Harry, 9/2 Wiltshire, 11/2 Marvelman
11/2 Symbol Of Honour, 8/1 Heavenly Heather
10/1 Noble Champion, 10/1 Paborus, 12/1 Ferrous
12/1 Poet Master, 16/1 Zoum Zoum, 25/1 Heathcliff
200/1 Bloodsweatandtyres
 
Chipchase Stakes

Group 3 (6f)

DILIGENT HARRY

Won this last year at 16/1
But he is now 8 years old
Fails a couple of statistics
 
Go back to 1997
May to December
Group races over 6f
Horses aged 8 or older
Absent more than 44 days
Return a 0-37 record 
DILIGENT HARRY fails this

He has to win from stall 10

Since the track reopened

Newcastle 7f races
Run in class 5 or higher
Show horses aged 7 or older
Absent more than 24 days
Drawn in stall 9 or higher
Have a 0-57 record in them
DILIGENT HARRY fails this

Several horses
Have long absences

Go back to 1997
No horse under 6 years old
Has won this race before
Absent more than 56 days
All 32 that tried were beaten
The following all fail this
 
PABORUS
SYMBOL OF HONOUR
MARVELMAN

Plenty of sexy horses above
Will try to beat the above stat

ZOUM ZOUM is underaced 

NOBLE CHAMPION might pop up
But just 1 bad run in 11 months

WILTSHIRE is a 6yo up in class
Looked at all similar types to him
There are several similar winners 
But in fields over 10 or more
Their strike rate drops significantly
  
POET MASTER has claims
But he has never ran on sand
Has never ran over 6f either
That makes him look quite risky

FERROUS 

Requires a leap of faith
But older horses with absences
Have won this more than once
Last years winner managed it
He has a good record fresh
Several rivals can be questioned

Selection

£4.50 Each Way FERROUS 14/1

£1.00 Win Bet POET MASTER 11/1-12/1
  
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4










York 2.58

11/10 Never So Brave, 13/8 Saber Strike
12/1 Qirat 16/1 Chicago Critic, 20/1 Royal Velvet
40/1 Balmacara.

Criterion Stakes

Group race 7f

Interesting race

Unsolvable issues here

SABER STRIKE the only 3yo
Ran in only his 3th career race 
When below form at Royal Ascot
He comes back only 7 days later
Highly regarded trained by a master
But very hard to predict his running

NEVER SO BRAVE
Older and rated  higher
Has to give him some weight 
I would see him as a positive

QIRAT looks overpriced

The drop to 7f must suit him
Failed him on both runs this year
Over a mile and with absences
As his sire has had no winners
Who overcame similar tasks

In a small tactical field
Going with him at the prices
Save on one of the favourites

Main problem is that saver
No clues as to which is best
Choice of substance of sexy 

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet QIRAT 12/1-11/1

£5.00 Win Bet NEVER SO BRAVE 1/1











Chester 3.03

11/4 Solar Aclaim, 4/1 Ruby's Angel, 6/1 Dark Thirty
13/2 Purest Time, Stormy Impact, 8/1 Rosenpur
10/1 Candonomore, Stratusnine, 14/1 We Never Stop

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-95

Hugo Palmer

Has the top and bottomweight

They are 1st and 2nd favourites
 
STRATUSNINE 

He carries topweight
Has the widest draw too
Felt that was asking a lot

Go back to 1997
Chester 6f handicaps
Under 12 runners
Horses aged 4 or older
Drawn 9 are 0-38
Drawn 10 are 0-33
Drawn 11 are 0-10
STRATUSNINE fails this
Drawn widest in stall 9

Go back to 1997
Chester 6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses under 5 years old
More than 15 career runs
Absent over 20 days
Return a 0-37 record
STORMY IMPACT fails this
Only fails but a single day
Which devalues the statistic
But it is not a good profile
And she's drawn high in stall 8

RUBY'S ANGEL is a 3yo filly
Never met any older horses
I'd have liked a better last run

Chester 6f handicaps
For all aged horses since 2007
Show 3 year old fillies are 0-16
RUBY'S ANGEL would be first
   
PUREST TIME is exposed
Raced just once in 141 days

WE NEVER STOP looks unsafe

CANDONOMORE is rejected
Dropping down from 8f to 6f

SOLAR CLAIM has a chance
Not keen he's just won a 5f race

This is quite interesting

Go back to 1997
Chester 6f handicaps
Class 3 and higher grade
Any time of the season
Horses aged 5 or older
Coming from 5f races
Have a 0-23 record in them
They won in lower grades
But in this class and higher
All 21 that tried to win failed
SOLAR CLAIM fails this
ROSENPUR also fails this

DARK THIRTY

Has fewer concerns than most

Selection
 
DARK THIRTY 5/1

Each Way









Newcastle 3.15

7/2 Circus Of Rome, 15/2 Ride The Thunder, 8/1 Team Player
10/1 Saint Etienne, 12/1 Synergism, 14/1 Dancing In Paris
14/1 Prydwen, Spirit Mixer, Zanndabad, 16/1 Align The Stars
16/1 Asgard's Captain, Bahadur, Kirchner, Moon Over Miami
18/1 Tribal Star, 20/1 Blazeon Five, 33/1 Aqwaam
40/1 Tashkhan, 50/1 Elysian Flame, 100/1 Gentleman Joe.
 
Northumberland Plate

Always hated this race

Normally don't bother with it
Doing it because the favourite
Has a very difficult challenge

Go back 25 years
Every 2 mile handicap
Run in class 2 or higher
Hundreds of these races
None of the winners
Came from 8f or shorter

CIRCUS OF MOON does this
Admittedly not many tried
But no horse with over 10 runs
Won from 1m 2f or shorter
All 51 that tried this were beat 

SAINT ETIENNE fails this
If you include his French runs
 
CIRCUS OF MOON also fails it 
Said to be the Ante Post Gamble
If he does win he would be the first
To win any similar race from a mile

Does not warrant a big preview

One interesting angle
Since the race was run on sand
Horses under 6 years old
With over 11 career starts
Return a 0-66 record in this
The following all fail this

ALIGN THE STARTS
TRIBAL STAR
SYNERGISM
CIRCUS OF ROME
TEAM PLAYER

Opposing the oldest horses

SPIRIT MIXER
PRYDWEN
ZANNDABAD

MOON OVER MIAMI is rejected
Coming out wide drawn in stall 19

DANCING IN PARIS is rejected
Underaced and fails breeding stats

Shortlisting 4

ASGARD'S CAPTAIN
KIRCHNER
BAHADUR
RIDE THE THUNDER

Don't have a strong view

ASGARD'S CAPTAIN at 25/1
Can not be ruled out of winning
But had to reduce the shortlist


Selection

£7.50 Win Bet BAHADUR 12/1

£1.50 Win Bet RIDE THE THUNDER 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet KIRCHNER 9/1










York 4.15

2/1 Hallo Spaceboy, 6/1 Invincible Boy, 7/1 Percy's Star
7/1 Vidmiyr, 8/1 Mr Noble, 10/1 Explosive Finnish
14/1 Arduis Invicta, 14/1 Million Gold, 16/1 Bye Law
16/1 Kinnalargy, 16/1 Logi Bear, 25/1 Bleep Test
25/1 Evening Blues, 28/1 Rikki Tiki Tavi
50/1 Von Trotter.

6f handicap

3 year olds

Horses rated 0-83

Short priced favourite

HALLO SPACEBOY 

Has several positives
But plenty of weight too
And hasn't run in 50 days

Even money

In a big handicap

This is quite interesting

Go back to 1997
York 6f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Open to any age group
Horses aged 3
Absent more than 43 days
Carrying 9st or more
Return a 0-64 record
None have won in 27 years
Those in 3yo handicaps like this
Have a 0-40 record since 1997
The following try to be the first

BLEEP TEST
RIKKI TIKI TAVI
HALLO SPACEBOY
INVINCIBLE BOY
MILLION GOLD 

Go back to 1997
York 6f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Open to any age group
Horses aged 3 or older
Under 4 career races
Drawn 9 or higher
Return a 0-55 record
The following both fail this

INVINCIBLE BOY
MR NOBLE

ARDUIS INVICTA is unsafe
As a filly coming from a 5f race
KINNALARGY is also up in trip
Plenty of weight with 9st 8lbs
VIDMIYR is dropping in distance
No evidence that will suit him
  
LOGI BEAR is shortlisted
Bit exposed with 13 career runs

PERCY'S STAR 

Was my first choice
But he pulled out an hour ago
Going for a replacement bet

EXPLOSIVE FINNISH with 7 runs
May have a bit more improvement
The only past winner of this race
Came from the same race as him

Selection

EXPLOSIVE FINNISH 12/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

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