8 Previews
1 Account Bet 
  
  

Account Bet

Lingfield 4.27 

ANTIQUITY 3/1-100/30

Win Bet





Final Deliberations 

8 Previews

3 Lingfield 
2 Kempton
2 Chepstow
1 Newcastle
 
Eider Chase day
 
Unrecognisable race this year
With a small unbalanced field
 
Last Saturday was a triumph 
This day last year a disaster

Our Eider Chase bet placed
But our jockey didn't weigh in
So we ended up disqualified
  
Luck needed and welcomed
Not just with Lingfield's races
 
Unusual for me to say this 
But I do like Lingfields card 
Highlighting 4 of their races




 
Chepstow 1.40 

MARHABA PRINCE 7/4-13/8

Win Bet
 
Not strong enough or suitable
For staking as an account bet
Embarrassing as some will find it
I'm betting this horse each way
But it goes down as a win bet




Lingfield 2.00

£6.00 Win Bet NEBRAS 7/2-100/30

£4.00 Win Bet CHANCELLOR 13/8-6/4

Winter Derby
John Gosden trains both
Tight margins betting them
But prefer them over the rest




Lingfield 4.27 

ANTIQUITY 3/1-100/30

Win Bet

He should be winning soon
Expecting him to win this race
Witchcraft and Sorcery aside





Lingfield 5.00 
 
£6.00 Win Bet MISTER MOET 5/1 

£4.00 Win Bet MADMAN 13/8 

Two significant non runners
Has now opened the race up
Madman the most likely winner
May be chasing our selection
Who may have enough to win




The problem with Lingfield

Weaker markets 
Shorter prices

Could wait for a Sunday bet
But had a big winner last week
And could go again tomorrow







Preview Selections  

Kempton 1.10
£7.00 Win Bet Royal Infantry 7/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Grenadier Jed 9/4-5/2 
 
Chepstow 1.40
Marhaba Prince 7/4-13/8
Win Bet

Lingfield 2.00
£6.00 Win Bet Nebras 7/2-100/30 
4.00 Win Bet Chancellor 13/8-6/4
 
Newcastle 2.43 
£4.50 Each Way Val Dancer 8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Mr Vango 8/1-9/1

Chepstow 2.55
£8.75 Win Bet A Perfect Day 3/1-100/30 
£1.25 Win Bet Ambion View 7/1-15/2

Kempton 3.35 
Rising Dust 10/1-9/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Lingfield 4.27 
Antiquity 3/1-100/30
Win Bet

Lingfield 5.00 
£6.00 Win Bet Mister Moet 5/1-11/2
£4.00 Win Bet Madman 13/8

 






PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 



Kempton 1.10

11/4 Hold The Serve, 4/1 Grenadier Jed, 
9/2 Fasol 6/1 Royal Infantry, 13/2 Favour And Fortune
9/1 Whatsupwithyou 12/1 Bourbali, 20/1 Charlus
25/1 Tranquil Sea.
 
2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
 
Horses rated 0-142
  
FAVOUR AND FORTUNE

Topweight and 323 days off
Tempted to rule out right now
 
Go back to 1999
Horses with 11st 11lbs or more
Have a poor 1-29 record 
FAVOUR AND FORTUNE fails  
 
To be fair the 2008 winner
Had a very similar profile
Came from the same race
He has the class to win this 
Put's me off he is undersized
And the market is saying no

21 of the last 23 winners
Had 12 or fewer hurdle runs 
Opposing the most exposed

BOURBALI
TRANQUIL SEA
WHATSUPWITHYOU

FASOL has 14 hurdle run
Bit more exposed than ideal
Horses with over 11 hurdles
Absent more than 23 days
Have a 1-33 record in this
FASOL shares this profile
But so did the 2024 winner
 
HOLD THE SERVE a 6yo
Has raced only the 4 times
Some weakness in his profile

Past renewals show
Horses aged 6 or older
Under 6 lifetime runs
Running within 84 days are 0-19
Coming from 2m 3f or less 0-12
HOLD THE SERVE fails both

Horses aged 6 or older
From novice of maiden hurdles
Have a 0-27 record in this race
Those aged 6 were 0-12 doing it
HOLD THE SERVE fails this

ROYAL INFANTRY has 11st 12lbs
Bit more weight than is ideal in this
But an otherwise balanced profile
Experienced enough not exposed

Horses aged 6 or 7
Between 9 and 15 runs
Between 5 and 10 hurdle runs
Have a 6-26 record in this race
The following horses share this

ROYAL INFANTRY 
GRENADIER JED

Of the pair 

ROYAL INFANTRY is weaker
As has to defy the topweight
And from a non graded race

GRENADIER JED is younger 
And gets 22lbs weight as well 
But is from a smaller stable

Could go with a split stake bet
A win bet and a place bet works

ROYAL INFANTRY

Could outclass these
Many of his higher rated dangers
Look unfancied or unsuitable

Equally
He may have other targets
So not going each way 

 
Selection
 
£7.00 Win Bet ROYAL INFANTRY 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet GRENADIER JED 9/4-5/2 









Chepstow 1.40

11/8 Mister Ursus, 15/8 Mr Diafoirus, 7/2 Marhaba Prince
7/1 Lipstick, 33/1 I Heard A Rumour, 33/1 Makinbecon
100/1 Paradise Park, Passage Du Maure, 100/1Stone Cold
100/1 Yourcardismarked.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Shapes like a 4 horse race

LIPSTICK looks the weakest
Having his 3rd career start
Only 125/1 on hurdling debut

The 3 market leaders

All have sound chances

Any could have been favourite
Any could have been selected

MR DIAFOIRUS is unreadable
With just some French flat form

MARHABA PRINCE

Started odds on at Wincanton
To some disappointed in 2nd
But it was straight forward
He had some challenges there
And I am hoping a run 7 days ago
Maybe enough to catch these out

Tempted each way even at 2/1

But going with a win selection
 
Selection

MARHABA PRINCE 7/4-13/8

Win Bet










Lingfield 2.00

2/1 Chancellor, 9/4 Boiling Point 5/2 Nebras
6/1 Sky Safari 20/1 Military Academy
 
Winter Derby Stakes
 
John Gosden runs two

Judging purely by the market

CHANCELLOR is first string

Thought they may be closer
NEBRAS is rated just 2lbs lower
Has improved from being gelded
Ryan Moore has been boocked

And horses like him
From the Quebec Stakes
Have a 3-5 record coming here
NEBRAS is quite tempting

Something I did not know
And am interested to watch

Horses sired by Too Darn Hot
Running further than 9 furlongs
Running in class 2 or higher
When off the track over 38 days
Return a 0-20 record so far

Not conclusive
But none of them have won
BOILING POINT would be first

SKY SAFARI an older mare
Steps up from handicaps

Small tactical field

Gooing with the Gosden 4yo's
But not in the market positions

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet NEBRAS 7/2-100/30

£4.00 Win Bet CHANCELLOR 13/8-6/4










Newcastle 2.43

7/2 Livin On Luco, 5/1 Anglers Crag, 11/2 Fortunate Man
7/1 Dom Of Mary, 8/1 Mr Vango, 8/1 Val Dancer
11/1 Knockanore, 12/1 Red Delta, 18/1 Only The Bold
20/1 Whistle Stop Tour
 
Eider Chase 4m 1f

Small field this year

Highly unusual renewal

MR VANGO rated 154 

Faces a 0-130 class field

He has a huge class edge 
He did pull up last time out
He comes here out of form 
And lacking a very fit profile

Go back to 1997
Horses rated 141 or higher
Have a 0-18 record so far
 
Horses with 11st 10lbs +
Are 0-20 in this handicap

MR VANGO rated 154
Fails both of those angles
 
Past winners
Had the Following Chase runs

6 7 20 6 9 17 7 7 11 8 11
5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

18 of the previous 21 winners

Won with under 14 chase runs

Two horses fail this 
The two most exposed chasers 

DOM OF MARY 18 chase runs 
ANGLERS CRAG 15 chase runs

ANGLERS CRAG is 11 years old
He has ran just once in 10 months

Past winners had these runs
Since August that season

6 3 5 3 4 4 3 2 3 5 3 3 5
2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6
No winner had just the 1 run 
ANGLERS CRAG fails this

23 of the last 25 winners
Had ran at least 3 times
Since August that season

No horse with over 7 chase runs
Won with under 3 runs that season
All 53 that tried this were beaten
The following horses all fail this

MR VANGO
ANGLERS CRAG
FORTUNATE MAN 
ONLY THE BOLD
 
Horses aged 10 or more
More than 19 lifetime runs
Have a 0-95 record  
The following all fail this

ONLY THE BOLD
DOM OF MARY
ANGLERS CRAG

KNOCKANORE has 25 runs
Most exposed horse in the race
Comes here pulling up last time
That race was only over hurdles

No past winner
Had more than 11 hurdle runs
KNOCKANORE has now had 13
Not jumped a fence since October
When he also pulled up then

Horses from 3m 5f or more
Running within 41 days
Finishing the race last time
Have a 0-18 record in this
The following horses fail this

WHISTLE STOP TOUR 
LIVE ON LUCO

Not a very strong angle
But there are other concerns

WHISTLE STOP TOUR is an 8yo 
He looks quite well handicapped  
Has to prove his stamina though
Sires bred no winners past 3m 1f

LIVE ON LUCO has 12 career runs
All recent winners had more races
And just two runs this season as well

RED DELTA has 7 career runs
Ideally would have liked a few more
But has a stamina packed pedigree
And in the smallest ever field for this
Could not fully rule him out of this
But he fails the following statistic

Go back to 2002
January to July
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 3f and more
Class 2 and lower grade
Horses aged 7
Over 5 chase runs
Absent over 70 days
Return a 0-70 record
RED DELTA has this profile
 
Shortlist

MR VANGO

VAL DANCER

  
MR VANGO has a weak profile
But must be shortlisted on class

VAL DANCER has 12 chase runs
He has won a welsh national

Selection

£4.50 Each Way VAL DANCER 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet MR VANGO 8/1-9/1








Kempton 3.35
  
9/2 Kdeux Saint Fray, 5/1 Katate Dori, 7/1 Hoe Joly Smoke
8/1 The Doyen Chief, 9/1 Chance Another One, 10/1 Lookaway
10/1 Rising Dust, 11/1 Deep Cave, 12/1 Leader In The Park
12/1 Soul Icon, 14/1 Henry's Friend, 20/1 Boombawn
25/1 Gustavian
 
Ladbrokes Trophy  

Handicap Chase 3m

BOOMBAWN is topweight
Exposed and up in distance

Horses from 2m 6f or shorter
More than 23 lifetime starts
Carrying 10st 13lbs or more 
Have not won this yet (0-14)   
BOOMBAWN fails this angle
 
17 of the last 19 winners
Had 17 or fewer chase runs
GUSTAVIAN has 25 of them
Looks too exposed to choose
 
CHANCE ONE ANOTHER a 7yo
Has only ran in 4 chase races

Horses aged 7
Under 6 chase races
Carrying 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-19 record in this 
CHANCE ONE ANOTHER fails this
Rejected coming up 7f in distance

Older horses
Who lack recent races
Have won this race before
But tended to be highweights
The classiest of the runners

Go back to 1999
Horses aged 9 and older
Absent more than 28 days
Carrying 11st 4lbs or less 
Have a 0-65 record in this 
THE DOYEN CHIEF fails this
He also fails this sire statistic

Horses sired by Doyen
Running over 3m and more
Class 2 and higher grade
Absent more than 44 days
Return a 0-49 record so far
THE DOYEN CHIEF fails this
 
Horses under 9 years old
Beaten over 18 lengths last time
Have a 0-47 record in this
LEADER IN THE PARK fails this

SOUL ICON is rejected
Mainly on this breeding angle

Horses sired by Sixties Icon
Running over 3m and more
Class 6 and higher grade 
Return a 0-48 record so far
 
HOLY JOE SMOKE an 8yo
Has not raced in 70 days now
 
Horses with under 19 runs
Absent more than 42 days
Coming from 2m 7f or shorter
Have a 0-29 record so far
HOLY JOE SMOKE fails this
Can not match him to a winner
 
KATATE DORI won this last year
Runs off 11lbs higher this season
Has not ran in the last 51 days 

Go back to 1999
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 28 days
Under 20 career runs
Under 10 chase runs
Have a 0-43 record in this
The following all fail this
 
KATATE DORI
LOOKAWAY
HOLY JOE SMOKE
THE DOYEN CHIEF
LEADER IN THE PARK 
 
KDEUX SAINT FRAY is a 6yo
Youngest horse in this race

Horses aged 6
Have a 0-11 record since 2001     
KDEUX SAINT FRAY fails this
Unsafe up half a mile in distance

HENRY'S FRIEND is a 9yo
Tough weight and an absence
Looks like a Cheltenham prep
  
DEEP CAVE has a chance
His stable are still struggling 

If you go back to 1998
Horses aged 8 or older
With under 6 chase runs
Have an overall 0-21 record
LOOKAWAY fails this angle
 
RISING DUST on the staking
 
I'd like to stake a couple here
But the others all fail angles

Selection

RISING DUST 10/1-11/1

Each Way
  
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Lingfield 4.27

4/1 Antiquity, 5/1 My Boy Harry, 5/1 Phyllis Burton
11/2 Sold Out, 6/1 Poke The Bear, 7/1 Ardaddy
8/1 Danehill Star, 14/1 Dodging The Bullet, 16/1 Kev
33/1 Hopjes.

8f Handicap

Class 6 race

February has 251 similar races

MY BOY HARRY is topweight

Similar races show

Horses aged 4
Coming from 7f or shorter
More than 22 career races
Have a 0-20 record in them
MY BOY HARRY has this profile

Opposing the following

ARDADDY from a 6f race
KEV is not showing enough
PHYLLIS BURTON a filly
Looks too inexperienced 

Opposing the lowest rated
HOPYES rated 53 no recent run
SOLD OUT from a classified race
DODGING THE BULLET resistible

DANEHILL STAR lacks backclass
For a horse thats had 33 races

POKE THE BEAR has a chance
Drawn 10 of 10 not a deal breaker
Last run can easily be excused
He has raced 15 times before
His Racing Post Ratings show
Just 1 figure higher than was 59
Has a handicap mark of 62 today

Not first choice

Probably third choice

ARDADDY is second choice
Could easily be a saver bet

MY BOY HARRY

Has just pulled out

 
ANTIQUITY

Good profile

Been shaping well

If he gets no bad luck

He looks ready to win

Selection

ANTIQUITY 3/1-11/4

Win Bet








Chepstow 2.55

5/1 A Perfect Day, 11/2 Stone's Throw
6/1 Gowel Road, 7/1 American Mike, 7/1 Firestream
9/1 Keable, 9/1 King Of The Lake, 10/1 Monmiral
10/1 Ambion View, 12/1 Rickety Bridge
20/1 Green Book.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

GOWEL ROAD is topweight

No past winners 
Carried 11st 8lbs or more
Opposing him on that angle
He comes from a Graded race
All 18 horses doing that failed

MONMIRAL fails the weight stat
AMERICAN MIKE is unsafe
Mixing weight with an absence

FIRESTORM is rejected
On soft ground with a year off

KEABLE has a chance
But also an inexperienced rider

KING OF THE LAKE an 8yo
Has now had 18 hurdle races
Thats a lot for a young horse

Staying with the unexposed

Past renewals show

Horses aged 6
Under 13 career runs
Under 11st 5lbs weight
Absent more than 20 days
Not coming from a Novice
Have a 6-16 record in this

STONE'S THROW is a pass
But fails on breeding statistics
His sires soft ground runners
Have not won beyond 2m 6f yet

A PERFECT DAY is a match

AMBION VIEW is a saver

Selection
 
£8.75 Win Bet A PERFECT DAY 3/1-100/30
 
£1.25 Win Bet AMBION VIEW 7/1-15/2








Lingfield 5.00

7/4 Marra Donna, 9/2 Corniche Girl, 5/1 Madman
11/2 Rosieisme Darling, 10/1 Laser Luck, 12/1 Mister Moet
14/1 Real Gold, 20/1 Denby's Dream, Runamara.

3yo Handicap 6f

CORNICHE GIRL a filly

Carries topweight in this

Just 7 days ago
She raced over a mile
And now drops down 2f

Looked at horses like her

None managed it
In the first 6 months of the year

Go back 25 years
January to June
3yo handicaps over 6f
Any class of race
Horses from 8f races
More than 9 career runs
Running within 11 days
Return a 0-29 record
CORNICHE GIRL fails this

She has the widest draw
Never easy to oppose horses
With good recent races
But down 2f going elsewhere

MARRA DONNA - Now a non runner

CORNICHE GIRL - Now a non runner
 
LASER LUCK a filly
Has a weak profile

ROSEISNE DARLING does
As a filly from a 5f race

Few of the others
All lower rated lightweights
Look particularly enticing 
 
MADMAN drops in distance
Has a very speedy pedigree
An extended 7f last time out
May have just been too far
This drop in trip should suit

MISTER MOET is interesting
Experience and a fit profile 
He will be dangerous in this
And may nick it from the front

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MISTER MOET 5/1-11/2

£4.00 Win Bet MADMAN 13/8

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