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Waiting for Sunday-Monday







Final Deliberations


Leopardstown has been abandoned  
Rescheduled for Sunday and Monday 
 
Happy enough with that arrangement
Feels like a bank holiday weekend

Wetherby has also been abandoned 

Losing both cards hurts the message
Which is now trimmed to 6 previews

Account bet was the plan

Now we have a bit more space

Going to wait for sunday/monday

6 Previews
4 Sandown
1 Musselburgh
1 Lingfield

Done my best at Sandown
Not the friendliest of places
But some good priced bets
And the previews look good
The staking was very hard

One Possible bet was this




Today's Best Bet

 
Musselburgh 1.43

£4.50 Each Way STAR OF GUITING 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet CITY OF DIAMONDS 10/1 


I was quite tempted to stake this 
But there are only 3 places on offer
I could easily have chosen wrong
We have the lowest rated horses
 
Happy to wait for tomorrow 

Given both the abandonments









Preview Selections
  
Sandown 12.20
£9.00 Win Bet  Crackerjacque 2/1
£1.00 Win Bet The Cistercian 9/1-8/1

Lingfield 12.35
£7.00 Win Bet Me Tarzan 4/1-9/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Rey De La Batalla 9/4

Sandown 12.55
£5.00 Win Bet Hot Goddess 6/1 
£4.00 Win Bet  Bollin Thou 11/10 
£1.00 Win Bet  Zainy Champ 8/1
 
Musselburgh 1.43
£4.50 Each Way Star Of Guiting  9/1 
£1.00 Win Bet City Of Diamonds 10/1 

Sandown 2.02 
£7.50 Win Bet Escapeandevade 5/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Kotmask 11/2-6/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Haddex Des Obeaux 11/1

Sandown 3.10
£4.50 Win Bet Minella Missile 12/1 
£4.50 Win Bet Spike Jones 14/1-16/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Sole Solution 9/1








 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS 





Sandown 12.20

15/8 Sinchi Roca, 7/2 Crackerjacque
9/2 Ionian 9/2 The Cistercian, 11/2 Grand Teton
14/1 Wispit Twob

Novice Hurdle

Heavy ground

Opposing the lightly raced

Past winners

Had the following hurdle runs

4 0 2 2 2 2 2 3 
 
They all had 2 + hurdle runs
Except one unraced winner
Who had Group 1 flat form

Number of hurdle runs
 
4 The Cistercian
2 Crackerjacque
2 Wispit Twob
1 Sinchi Roca   
1  Ionian
0  Grand Teton 


SINCHI ROCA the favourite
Has only had 1 hurdle race

Does not make him a negative
But it will be a demanding race
And I'd rather have extra runs

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet  CRACKERJACQUE 2/1

£1.00 Win Bet THE CISTERCIAN 9/1-8/1







Lingfield 12.35

5/2 Party Bear, 7/2 Rey De La Batalla
5/1 Me Tarzan, 11/2 Dream Of Mischief
10/1 Kit Gabriel 14/1 Obsidian Dream
33/1 Comedian Leader 33/1 Elouise's Prince.
 
7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-75

OBSIDIAN DREAM topweight
He has ran just once in 308 days

Much rather have a fit profile
The following horses lack this

OBSIDIAM DREAN
KIT GABRIAL
DREAM OF MISCHIEF 

PARTY BEAR is a filly
She does have a fit profile
But drawn in stall 10 of 10

If you go back to 1997
Lingfield 7f races
With under 11 runners
Fillies with over 3 races
Drawn in stall 10 of 10
Have a 0-46 record so far
PARTY BEAR has this issue

Will be interesting to watch her
Will she be the first filly to do it
A non runner has helped her


Shortlist

ME TARZAN

REY DE LA BATALLA


ME TARZAN is running well
Felt she has had some excuses
Last time the pace collapsed
The front runners did too much


Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ME TARZAN 4/1-9/2

£3.00 Win Bet REY DE LA BATALLA 9/4







  

Sandown 12.55

5/4 Bollin Thou, 3/1 Precious Metal
4/1 Calme Olympien, 7/1 Zainy Champ
8/1 Hot Goddess.
 
Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
 
Horses rated 0-118

PRECIOUS METAL topweight

He has the fewest hurdle runs
Yet the most weight of them all

Smells fancied won last time
But he is coming up half a mile
And this stat is not encouraging

Go back to 2003
January to April
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f and more
Horses aged 5
Under 4 hurdle races
Coming from a 2m race
From a non graded race
Carrying 11st 10lbs or more
Return a 0-33 record in them
PRECIOUS METAL shares this

Could easily still win
In a race with just 5 runners
But it is a stressful profile

CALME OLYMPIER is unsafe
Tough weight and 107 days off

Go back to 2006
Sandown
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Class 4 or higher
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or older
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Absent over 17 days
Return a 0-30 record in them 
CALME OLYMPIER fails this
 
 BOLLIN THOU

Most likely winner
But he is short at 11/10
Has been quite busy lately

Going to make him a saver

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet  HOT GODDESS 6/1

£4.00 Win Bet  BOLLIN THOU 11/10

£1.00 Win Bet ZAINY CHAMP 8/1
  







Musselburgh 1.43

3/1 Afadil, 100/30 Williethebuilder, 9/2 Welsh Charger
9/1 Wise Eagle, 11/1 Star Of Guiting, 12/1 Kateira
12/1 Static, 14/1 City Of Diamonds, 16/1 Gibbs Island
20/1 Saligo Bay.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

Horses rated 0-145

AFADIL is favourite

Won this race 2 years ago
Stable appear quite bullish
But this is his 26th hurdle run
Thoroughly exposed now

17 past renewals

They all had under 18 hurdle runs
Those with more have a 0-28 record
AFADIL shares this 0-28 profile
SALIGO BAY also fails this as well

Older exposed horses
Have not done well in this

Horses aged 8 or older
More than 13 career starts
Are now 0-45 in 17 renewals
The following horses fail this

SALIGO BAY
WISE EAGLE
KATEIRA
WELSH CHARGER

WISE EAGLE comes from a flat race
All 16 horses doing that were beaten
Older than all of the 17 past winners

WELSH CHARGER is an 8yo
He won this race last season
But older and more exposed now

GIBBS ISLAND looks resistible
 
STATIC is a 5yo
Bit exposed with 14 hurdle runs

Go back to 2007
January to March
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Class 2 and higher
Horses aged 5
Over 12 hurdle runs
Return a 0-39 record in them
STATIC shares this profile 

WILLIETHEBUILDER is a 7yo
He comes here on a hat trick
But plenty of weight
He's had 15 hurdle runs

Horses aged 7 or older
More than 10 hurdle runs
Have a 0-48 record in this

The following horses fail this

WILLIETHEBUILDER 
KATEIRA
SALIGO BAY
WELSH CHARGER
AFADIL

If you compare those angles

To horses aged 6 
With under 8 lifetime runs 
You find a 3-5 record in them
 
STAR OF GUITING has this profile

CITY OF DIAMONDS has this profile

They have twice met each other

The current score is 1-1

They are up in class
Just out of the weights too
But several winners went up in class
Some from the same handicap as well

Selection

£4.50 Each Way STAR OF GUITING 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet CITY OF DIAMONDS 10/1 










Sandown 2.02

7/2 Jax Junior, 5/1 Escapeandevade
11/2 Dr T J Eckleburg, 6/1 Gunsight Ridge
7/1 Kotmask, 9/1 Rath Gaul Hill, 12/1 Martator
14/1 Classic Maestro, 14/1 Denemethy
14/1 Haddex Des Obeaux, 20/1 Hypotenus.
 
Handicap Chase 2m

Horses rated 0-145
 
HADDEX DES OBEAUX  a 9yo
Asking a lot to win with 12 stone
But he has some serious figures
  
GUNSIGHT RIDGE is an 11yo
Won this race last season

This is a much bigger field
He is the oldest horse in this
Has the joint longest absence
 
Going to take him on today
Based on the following angle

Go back to 1999
Sandown
Handicap Chases
Run under 3 miles
Horses aged 10 or more
Over 15 chase runs
Absent over 33 days
Carrying 11st or more
Return a 0-44 record
GUNSIGHT RIDGE fails this

Past renewals show
Horses rated under 125
Won just 1 of the 20 renewals
They may just lack the class
The following horses fail this
 
HYPOTENUS rated 119
RATH GAUL HILL rated 119
DR T J ECKLEBURG rated 120

No horse with over 15 chase runs
Has won this rated lower than 143 

DR T J ECKLEBURG fails this too

Specialist 2 milers
Tend to win this handicap

Past renewals since 2002
Show horses aged 7 or older
Dropping from 2m 3f or more
Have a 0-33 record in them
The following horses fail this

MARTATOR
DEMEMETHY
JAX JUNIOR

JAX JUNIOR is a 7yo
He only has 3 chase races
Thats a worry on heavy ground

Go back to 2000
Horses with under 6 chase runs
Have a poor 1-25 record so far 
The only winner was  in 2011
Nicky Henderson horse off 10st 2lbs
JAX JUNIOR has 11st 8lbs
 
CLASSIC MAESTRO is an 8yo
Unseated at 4th on seasonal debut
Ran only once otherwise in 11 months
Hard not to see him as underraced

Shortlist
 
HADDEX DES OBEAUX a 9yo
May be a sensible saver bet here
Lots of doubts but unexposed
And he is the class option here

ESCAPEANDEVADE is a 10yo 
Never won off his current rating
Never raced in this class before
He is also exposed with 19 chases

So there are doubts about him 
But has a good run 14 days ago
And his last 2 runs career bests
And that may trump all the concerns

KOTMASK is an 8 year old
He is fit and running very well 
Comes from the best trial race
Winners in 2015 2016 2018 2021          
Came from that same trial race
He also has 19 chase runs

Some firms are 1-2-3-4
But many others 1-2-3

So not going each way

Split Stating the shortlist

Selection
 
£7.50 Win Bet ESCAPEANDEVADE 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet KOTMASK 11/2-6/1

£1.00 Win Bet HADDEX DES OBEAUX 11/1-12/1









Sandown 3.10

3/1 Henri The Second, 4/1 Hartington
7/1 Roaring Conquest, 8/1 Titan Discovery
9/1 Red Dirt Road, 11/1 Santos Blue, 12/1 Gabbys Cross
12/1 Minella Missile, Party Vibes, 14/1 Sole Solution
20/1 Spike Jones 

Heroes Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

Horses rated 0-141

  
RED DIRT ROAD is a 9yo
He won this race last season
He has 322 days off the track

Last 23 winners of this race
All ran within the last 63 days
RED DIRT ROAD fails this

Horses aged 10 or more
Have a 0-37 record in this
GABBYS CROSS fails this
  
HENRI THE SECOND is a 9yo
He comes from a 2m 4f race 
This statistic would worry me

Go back to 2007
Handicap Hurdles over 2m 7f+
Listed and Graded races
Any time of the season
Horses aged 9 or older
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Running within 5 months
Carrying 10st 4lbs or more
Return a 0-65 record in them
HENRI THE SECOND fails this

This is a crazy statistic

Go back to 1998
Handicap Hurdles over 2m 7f+
Listed and Graded races
Any time of the season
Horses aged 7 or older
More than 13 career starts
From Class 2 or lower
Carrying 11st 1lbs or more
Return a 0-163 record so far
Two did win in Irish handicaps
But all 163 lost in races over here
The following horses fail this

HENRI THE SECOND
SANTOS BLUE


TITAN DISCOVERY is an 8yo

Go back to 2005
Horses with over 10 hurdle runs
Absent more than just 14 days
Have a poor 1-75 record
TITAN DISCOVERY fails this

So do the following horses

GABBYS CROSS
SANTOS BLUE

Horses with over 12 hurdles
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-40 record in this
The following horses fail this

GABBYS CROSS
SANTOS BLUE

Horses aged 7 or more
Over 14 career starts
Absent more than 14 days
Have a weak 1-93 record
The following horses fail this

GABBYS CROSS
SANTOS BLUE
HENRI THE SECOND
 
ROARING CONQUEST a 7yo
Has positives and is respected
But there are concerns as well

Horses from handicaps
Over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-32 record in this
ROARING CONQUEST fails this

And if you look at his sire Doyen

Hurdlers sired by Doyen
Running over 3m and more
Listed and Graded races
On ground softer than good
They have a 0-27 record so far
ROARING CONQUEST would be first

PARTY VIBES is unorthodox
As a mare coming from a chase
She might win but she is risky
Every handicap hurdle since 2007
Run in listed and graded races
Show mares from chases are 0-9
Inconclusive but not a positive

HARTINGTON has his chance
But no horse under 8 years old
Coming from a non pattern race
Over 2m 4f or shorter won (0-25)
Slight pedigree issue as well 

Horses sired by Jukebox Jury
Running over hurdles
Listed and Graded class
Nave not won beyond 2m 4f
Only 11 tried and failed
But none have yet won
HARTINGTON next to try

Every past winner
Started 16/1 or less last time out
SPIKE JONES did not at 25/1
He could be overpriced at 16/1
Bit exposed and his recent run
Could make him very dangerous

SOLE SOLUTION is rejected
Did he do enough 9 days ago ?
Beaten 18 lengths maybe not
Bu sire statistics are suggesting
He did not stay 3m 1f on the soft
And he was eased down there
Coming back 2f surely helps him
Going to make him a small saver
 
MINELLA MISSILE

Could easily be overpriced 
Unexposed and a decent weight 
Brings momentum into the race 
Dropped a lot in the weights

Selection 

£4.50 Win Bet MINELLA MISSILE 12/1

£4.50 Win Bet SPIKE JONES 14/1-16/1

£1.00 Win Bet SOLE SOLUTION 9/1
 
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