It is Derby day at Epsom tomorrow.
No silly hype about the race from me here.
It will no doubt be one of the races Guy covers
in his multi race analysis Saturday message.
He will be working hard at his research to
try and rule out any Derby donkeys and to
zone in on stronger stat based chances.
There is fair chance however his strongest
bet of the day may be in a different race.
Time will tell on that score.
His Epsom analysis was good today.
Epsom 2.00
£6.50 Win Bet Teej A 5/1 -9/2
£3.50 Win Bet New Charter 7/4
Epsom 2.35
£2.50 Each Way Two Tempting 40/1-33/1
£4.00 Win Bet Al Mubhir 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Dancing Magic 9/1
Epsom 3.45
£8.00 Win Bet City Streak 11/2
£2.00 Win Bet Bolster 9/2
Epsom 4.30
Dance Sequence 12/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Epsom 5.40
Darkness 5/1-11/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
No promises about Saturday results.
All Guy can promise is to research and work hard.
Should you wish to join us for it feel free to
book in ( for one single Saturday only if you like )
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WARNING - No Saturday service next week
on Saturday June 8th. After about five years without
a holiday Guy is getting dragged away on one.
Any of you booked in for that date via past using
the 10 week booking option or through failure to heed
this warning we will sort with a future replacement.
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Teaching Grandmother To Suck Eggs
I am no fan of newsletters that are really just high hype sales guff.
Here I normally try and include something of potential use to some readers.
Typically this may be pinching a bit from Guy's mid week full member work
when he sends out some early research for a weekends major race.
None of that from his this week however to instead I thought I
would make you suffer some of my own core punting philosophies
inspired by Guy's full member of yesterday ( copied at email base below for you.)
This may be basic egg sucking school for some of you.
However for some learners I hope it helps just a little their future.
[ Already my distractible mind is wandering off course.
Teaching Grandmother to suck eggs?
Where did that silly expression come from?
I bet if I walked down the street and picked out twenty
grey haired old ladies at random, not one single one them would be
overly keen to go anywhere near sucking an egg never mind putting on
some performance of their highly skilled egg sucking ability. ]
Anyhow in summary Guys message yesterday ended up primarily
with shorter price horses being favoured.
Moreginplease at 11/1 early [ WON } was perhaps the outlier on the day.
From the shorties 3 out of 4 won.
Semi unusually in his message Guy mentioned a double or even a treble.
Anyhow Guy message inspired egg suck #1
might be to do with the concept of value.
It is not just to do with whatever to one you are getting.
Getting 11/10 for heads in a coin toss is great value.
Getting 4/1 to roll a six on a die is poor value.
More key is the ratio of odds obtainable divided by true odds.
True odds for a horse of course are impossible to calculate
before the race is run. So I guess you should edit the above to use
"estimated true odds."
Some people may use a computer to produce ten decimal places
of estimated true odds. Such precision can be absolute rubbish.
Garbage in Garbage out as the old computer saying goes.
Guy is more old school. Tons of research work and analysis
mixed with decades of experience paint a picture in his head
about contenders that may offer value.
Each race is different.
Sometimes perceived value may be in the short priced option.
Other times it will be at longer odds.
So I guess try and pay little heed to someone who tries to tell you that
only a certain odds range is suitable. That may be someone arguing
only for shorties or only for long shots in order to shift some product.
Also be wary of it if your advisor is yourself.
Value can come at odds both long and short.
Doubles and Trebles
Guy mentioned a short priced double or even a treble in his message.
This is sort of rare for him to do.
The life lesson here is to think about how certain punters may make a mistake.
Not uncommon for example is Joe punter walking down to the bookies.
Before even looking at a racing page of seeing who is running he has set in his brain
that he is going to do a double or a treble or perhaps even a yankee.
His bet style is decided in advance.
He then goes trying to pick out horses to fill it with.
Such an approach whilst common I suspect I feel is backwards.
Better if one first assesses a few races.
If there any value to be had in any of them? may be the first thing to ponder.
If so and you are fortunate enough to have what you feel
are value selections over a few races then the next question might be
What bet style will I use?
Perhaps you go for singles only.
Or perhaps you cover them for doubles or trebles.
Singles only I guess brings strike rate consistency.
If however you have done good work to identify value
then mathematically doubles and trebles can be a good idea.
Edge advantage actually multiplies up.
eg Say you had a 10% edge on a single.
For a double you have 1.1 * 1.1 = 1.21 or 21% edge.
For a treble 1.1 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 1,33 or 33% edge
Strike rate drops of course and the classic compensation
for that would be a smaller stake relative to that on a single.
It is very important to note that this edge multiplication factor works
in reverse and against you if the selections are poor value.
If the core selections are bad value then a punter betting them in
doubles or trebles will have a higher loss on turnover rate than his
mate who bets them in singles.
So work on the core foundation of value assessment first.
Only then ponder the addition of life spice up multiples.
Get core good value however and double or trebles are far from mug punter bets.
Personal taste however will often trump mathematical theory.
Take an extreme example of two 80/1 shots who should be 50/1.
There is good edge on the singles but even greater mathematical edge on a double.
One would be a very long time waiting for the day to arrive when both win.
Now my own personal cup of tea is that very long wait potential or lack of strike rate.
My own observation of Guy is that he rarely raises the topic of win doubles
or trebles. But if he does is tends to be days like yesterday where his research
happens to flop out at several short priced selections on that one day.
This I feel is the right order of things.
Contrast it with our mug punter friend who pre announces his intention
to do a yankee before even knowing what is running that day.
Anyhow I better shoot.
Guy's full unedited message from yesterday is below for you.
Some of the above thinking you should see applied in it.
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Yesterday's Full Member Message
Mathematician 4767
Thursday May 30th
5 Previews
0 Account Bet
No Account Bet
Favourite Bet
Warwick 6.40 - Onlyamatteroftime 4/5-8/11
Carlisle 7.55 - Haya 5/4
Win Double
Final Deliberations
The afternoon meetings
Not my favourite tracks
Lingfield (Turf)
Ripon
Ffos Las
All are complex courses
Hard to find much at all
Evening cards are better
But markets are so weak
Rain will be in play as well
And much will change later
Tomorrow
Epsom Derby meeting starts
Headline race is the Oaks
Ylang Ylang 2/1 favourite
My draw stats against him
They will make a big case
That he will not be winning
Do we trust the draw stats ?
That's one of several issues
We will consider tomorrow
Always a colourful meeting
Today however is not
Drab in the afternoon
Dangerous in the evening
Want to mention 2 horses
Warwick 6.40 - ONLYAMATTEROFTIME 4/5-8/11
Carlisle 7.55 - HAYA 5/4
Win Double
ONLYAMATTEROFTIME
Looks too good for this lot
Chance of a confidence boost
I wanted to have 2 win bets
But the price has shortened
He may not be more 4/6-8/11
So having him in a win double
Carlisle 7.55
HAYA 5/4
Win Bet
Surprised She is not favourite
The conclusion I would draw
The favourite might be better
But I think she is worth a bet
My breeding stats like her best
My draw stats hate the favourite
So I'm confident getting weight too
She has every right to take this
It's not a great message
The afternoon meetings boring
Not a day to be wasteful
Back on Tuesday
I mentioned an each way treble
That was unable to be backed
Could be worth trying this one
Lingfield 2.50 - SMART HEAL 7/4
Warwick 6.40 - ONLYAMATTEROFTIME 4/6
Carlisle 7.55 - HAYA 5/4
Each Way Treble
Get through the first leg
I'd be confident it wins
Only 2 places in the first
But if they all get placed
You get your money back
If all 3 of the horses win
A £1 each way treble (£2 staked)
Will pay around £11.30
Sending today early
Want a head start on Epsom
Nothing more I can do today
The 3 afternoon fixtures
Feels like meat I can not chew
Preview Selections
Lingfield 2.50
Smart Deal 7/4
Win Bet
Lingfield 4.00
£4.00 Each Way Moreginplease 11/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet Call Me The Breeze 4/1-7/2
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Ripon 4.20
£8.50 Win Bet Loyal Touch 5/2
£1.50 Win Bet Ey Up Its The Boss 5/1
Warwick 6.40 - Onlyamatteroftime 4/5-8/11
Carlisle 7.55 - Haya 5/4
Win Double
Yesterday's Summary
This was a 4 preview day
The first was pretty basic
We broke level in that race
Message finished P L L W
Rock Etoile was an outsider
No surprise he was beaten
Did not expect him to lead
Beaten 11 lengths in the end
But looked further than that
I Shut That d'Or best bet
Was a real disappointment
Drifted didn't smell fancied
Did not jump well enough
Must have overrated him
Distinction an easy winner
Clawed back respectability
Obviously I chose it wrong
From the two possible bets
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Lingfield 2.50
2/1 Smart Deal, 7/2 Poetic Force
7/2 Silastar 4/1 Trueman, 6/1 Lafan
50/1 No Sinner.
8f Claimer
TRUEMAN is rated highest
But he has a year off the track
Two quick stable downgrades
Sold cheaply all warning signs
LAFAN has 82 days absence
There are higher rated horses
Who have much fitter profiles
SILASTAR from a shrewd yard
Hasn't shown enough this season
Wouldn't be a shock if he won
But no obvious reason why he will
POETIC FORCE is a 10yo
One of the more likely winners
But he is going up in distance
And his profile does bring risk
Go back to 2006
Claiming races over 8f
Run at any time of year
With more than 3 runners
Horses aged 9 or more
Coming from 7f or shorter
Absent more than 19 days
Return a 0-25 record in them
POETIC FORCE fails this
SMART DEAL 5 yrs younger
Does offer the safest profile
Selection
SMART DEAL 7/4
Win Bet
Lingfield 4.00
7/2 Dame Darcey, 5/1 Pannonica, 13/2 Call Me The Breeze
8/1 Edergole's Gift, 10/1 Moreginplease, 10/1 Outer Edge
10/1 War Zone, 12/1 Lady Twilight, 14/1 Cherryblossom Time
16/1 Ash Wednesday, Dominant Force, Pearl Of Rowdown
33/1 Another Jack, The Carligation.
6f Handicap (3yo)
Horses rated 0-57
There is some deadwood
The horses rated 46 or lower
Opposing these with absences
DOMINANT FORCE
CHERRYBLOSSOM TIME
DAME DARCEY is a filly
Running well has positives
Little worried about stall 2
Go back to 2011
Lingfield 6f handicaps
With 10 or more runners
Open to both sexes
Horses aged 3 or more
Under 12 career races
Drawn 1-2-3-4
Have a 0-44 record
Go back to 2011
Lingfield 6f handicaps
With 10 or more runners
Open to both sexes
Horses aged 3 or more
Under 12 career races
Drawn 1-2-3-4
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 0-87 record in them
DAME DARCEY fails this
So do the following horses
ASH WEDNESDAY
WAR ZONE
LADY TWILIGHT
OUTER EDGE is underraced
EDERGOLE'S GIFT could be
As a filly with 1 run in 113 days
PANNONICA is a positive
My angles say he main flaw
Could be a bit too much weight
CALL ME THE BREEZE filly
Does come out quite well too
MOREGINPLEASE is exposed
Statistically not easy to asses her
I'd see here as a neutral positive
She was badly hampered last time
Her 3 previous races on the sand
All came from quite difficult draws
Either the highest or lowest stalls
Does requite a leap of faith to bet
But she has the ability on figures
Selection
£4.00 Each Way MOREGINPLEASE 4/1-7/2
£2.00 Win Bet CALL ME THE BREEZE 4/1-7/2
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Ripon 4.20
3/1 Loyal Touch, 4/1 Titian, 5/1 Ey Up Its The Boss
7/1 Baryshnikov, 7/1 Cockalorum, 8/1 Zarabanda
9/1 Rogue Sea, 10/1 Bennetot
10f Handicap
Horses rated 0-90
BENNETOT carries topweight
He may need another run or two
ZARABANDA a 5yo mare
May also need another race
COCKALORUM drops in trip
Not for me on 2 runs this year
Especially starting 28/1 and 8/1
ROGUE SEA has a long absence
BARYSHNIKOV a recent thrashing
EYE UP ITS THE BOSS a 5yo
Has bottomweight running off 70
Won last time he has momentum
But that race was only in Class 5
This is 2 grades higher
He has never ran in class 3
He is 0-14 in class 4 grade
Having had 28 career races
See him more as a saver option
TITIAN has some positives
But he is an exposed 6yo
Going up in distance here
Without any race in 33 days
He looks another saver option
LOYAL TOUCH is selected
Younger and safer than most
Decided on win bet and saver
Selection
£8.50 Win Bet LOYAL TOUCH 5/2
£1.50 Win Bet EYE UP ITS THE BOSS 5/1
Warwick 6.40
7/4 Onlyamatteroftime, 7/2 Espoir Des Forges
5/1 G A Henty, 7/1 Galway Reel, 10/1 Full Monty
12/1 Southfield Star, 14/1 Amarillobymorning
14/1 St Just In Time, 20/1 Misting, 50/1 Miami Jim
66/1 Darcy's Glance, 66/1 Pattern Cutter
66/1 Politicianspromise.
Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f
Going back to February
ONLYAMATTEROFTIME
Was 8/1 to win the Betfair hurdle
Highly competitive Graded race
He failed some angles that day
Despite that I fancied him to win
Based on the following reasons
Lightly raced
He was thrown in rated just 115
Upgraded yards to W.P. Mullins
Everyone knew he was quirky
But expected major improvement
He didn't run badly at Newbury
But it was too much too soon
He then dropped down in class
But also moved up 6 furlongs
In a Ballinrobe handicap hurdle
ONLYAMATTEROFTIME was 2nd
He was held up to get the trip
What beat him in that race
The very short run in at Ballinrobe
One horse got first run on him
But he flew home into 2nd place
What we have here
Is a soft race that will enable him
To get his first hurdle victory
He drops from 2m 6f to 2m 3f
That may or may not suit
GA HENTY his market rivals
Drops down from 3m 1f to 2m 3f
That could be a bigger disadvantage
Looking at his stout pedigree
ESPOIR DES FORGES
Has raced only one and failed
AMARILLOBYMORNING
Has also raced just once before
Hard to see them as dangers
Unless the favourite disappoints
He has before
He may well again
But think he is here to win
Placed into a very soft race
Selection
ONLYAMATTEROFTIME 4/5-8/11
Win Bet
Carlisle 7.55
10/11 Galyx, 5/4 Haya, 12/1 Bolton
16/1 Rock Armour, 25/1 Aviemore, 33/1 Bebeto
3333/1 Strike Rate, 50/1 Lang Toon Lad
66/1 Trojan Sun.
2yo Novice 9f
Looks a match on paper
GALYX has 2 runs
HAYA has 4 runs
Every other horse 33/1 or more
If you sort this by the numbers
GALYX has a modest advantage
You can also argue with 2 races
He has the most improvement too
But he has to give 12lbs weight
Partly a penalty for winning
Partly down to a sex allowance
HAYA getting 12lbs
Would be my preference
On Breeding stats
He is a much safer proposition
But my draw stats chirp in too
Go back to 2011
Carlisle 9f races
Horses with under 4 runs
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Have a 0-46 record in this
GALYX fails this draw angle
HAYA is chosen to beat him
Selection
HAYA 5/4
Win Bet
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