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Guy had a semi interesting day yesterday.
He had nothing on the official tips
so a blank day in terms of the so called official results.
But as you can see below it was close to a clean sweep
in his top of message commentary section.
I have copied that section for you below.
The bits in red are my own later
added notes.
He had lots of extra detail detailing the stats and research
behind
the horses below but I have left that out just to shorten
and neaten
While on I guess it may be worthwhile explaining
a bit more about this commentary section.
I guess picture Guy as a punter himself.
The so called official tip categories are in ways a fabricated
sub set of bets he himself is happy to make with his own cash.
Standards he sets for these would be higher than he himself
is happy to accept.
I guess he is picturing clients seeking more selective higher
edge advices for the official tips. He will also make a concerted
effort to reduce losing runs.
Then as well there are certain markets perhaps not suitable
to cite as an official tip. The likes of a match bet between
two horses or AvB as the exchange term it. Or a weak speciality
market of sorts.
His personal build up ante post stakes strategy as per his
Hennessey Gold Cup comments below as well may be deemed a
little to weird and unusual for an official tip.
Then of course as well there is the issue of message time
send being circa 11am ish with possibly many hours for market
price fluctuations before the off.
Races he researched and found a luke warm 2/1 horse in he
may decide to bet personally later in the day if the price
on them drifts out to what he feels are good odds.
I guess the wizened and seasoned amongst you if you sat back
and thought hard about itwould conclude that it is a lot harder
to run a successful advisory service due to all the constraints
than it would be to be a sole on man band punter.
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Mathematician 2169
Wednesday November 18th
0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bet
0 Negative
6 Races Discussed
Some fascinating issues to think about today
A massive Barney Curley style 4 horse gamble
A Champion Hurdle strategy
Some Hennessy Gold Cup progress
A Horse to follow
Who is also the best bet in the message at 13/2
I have decided not to stake my best bet
Partly for some extraordinary unforeseen reasons
But I am going to bet him myself
No Official Bet Today
T o d a y ' s M e s s a g e
Lots to think about today
My Best bet is In the 3.20 at Lingfield
I have had something on my mind for a few days
Ever since the defeat of the 2016 Champion Hurdle favourite
FAUGHEEN the current Champion was beaten on Sunday
He has been pushed out to as big as 15/8 with some firms
My instant reaction was the each way double
[ My own immediate gut call after Faugheen's
defeat was that
the market may experience an over reaction leading to
a temporary period of good ante post odds.
Faugheen will be trained to peak in March not November.
Seeing Guy conclude the rough same made my mind up.
I have just had £100 at the 15/8 PaddyPower
to open up my
personal Cheltenham 2016 action.
Time will tell if that was a good idea or not.
If Faugeen demolishes the field in his next race
there could easily be an over reactive swing in the other
direction.
In ways the question is not will he win in March but more
so
What price should a tin of beans be and is this shop offering
a bargain?
32RED
offer the same price with the upside of a £10 free bet
for new account openers.
A year or so back 32Red were just an exchange overlay.
Now they offer a more traditional sports book with each way
etc ]
What a superb second leg of any each way double
Only 4 months away and he is sure to start favourite
I can not see him starting anywhere near 15/8
You could get a small field and the race is 1/4 the odds a
place
I'd be tempted to use this bet many times before March
Anytime I see a horse I like suitable for an each way double
To use that bet with Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle
I mention this today for one reason
There are a few horses running today that fit the bill
There are a lot of horses around 9/4-5/2
That have outstanding chances of winning
Yet also look very safe for a place as well
Today I could go with any of a few each way doubles
Equally I am tempted to use them with Faugheen as well
If we can get a few of these right around now
And come March you will have a very exciting bet
These 3 horses look suitable candidates
For each way doubles if not each way singles
Lingfield 12.40 - HAPPY CALL 5/2 [
Won 11/4 ]
Lingfield 2.15 - REAL SMART 9/4 [
Won 4/1 ]
Thurles 12.25 - TTEBBOB 9/4 [
Won 3/1 ]
[ Note how final SP drifted out from
early odds.
Life lesson: The markets can often be irrational
and driven by human sentiment as opposed to being driven
by a horses true chance of success ]
This is not something I'd be interested in on the accounts
I'd have no problem with them in my personal betting
With my own personal betting
I'd quite like to start to build up money on Faugheen at 15/8
But in terms of today
Having rejected some obvious each way options
Because they are shorter prices
I am going with a bigger priced horse as my bet
Lingfield 3.20
FAINTLY 13/2
Each Way [ 2nd ]
I really think this horse is about to win soon
My dilemma today is whether to stake this
My statistics give the bet Luke warm support
They agree with the selection without being excited
Two things I don't like about the bet
FAINTLY is only a small horse
I try very hard to avoid staking bets on small horses
The favourite in the race also worries me
This horse is Tee It Up Tommo 7/2
I don't like his profile much
But he has been an enormous gamble
And backed with 3 other stablemates
All the subject of a massive big priced coup
I go into details of this coup later in the message
When this happens the rules of the game can change
You could get non runners
You could get horses deliberately given quiet runs
Some connection scared to try and win the race now
Others deliberately deciding to wait another day
Ask yourself this
If you owned FAINTLY and planned a gamble today
Would the enormous gamble on another horse in the race
Make you rethink and go with the bet another day
It would me
We do not know how safe the race actually is now
If the favourite pulls out we get a massive rule 4
If the gamble is landed we don't know what were up against
This makes me very cautious
It is enough to stop me advising a bet
Besides that there is another small problem
Not sure whether today is the day for FAINTLY
I think he is now a horse to follow
When running like today over a mile or more
Just not sure whether today is the time to strike
So one a day with some really interesting issues
I am leaving the account alone
I am ignoring all my each way double options
I am suggesting you consider Faugheen
If you have any interest in these sorts of bets
But for my best bet today
A horse I am definitely betting myself
But not staking on the account
Lingfield 3.20
FAINTLY 13/2
Each Way
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Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
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