Hi Again
It has been about three weeks since our last free newsletter.
So I thought I had get off my lazy behind and quickly rattle you off
some mindless drivel to help us stay on your radar.
Sadly this week there is no forward looking stuff
available to me to pass on to you.
So instead we look backwards at a disaster.
In the last free news I introduced our new Weekender option.
In short it is provision of high quality racing analysis
only on Saturdays and Sundays.
I guess it is aimed at those too busy with work mid week
who want more than Saturday alone.
Perhaps congratulations are in order to you for NOT joining up.
Not for last Sunday anyhow.
Last Sunday turned out to be a brilliant disaster.
It was brilliant in as much as Guy spent about 10 hours researching
and writing up some excellent racing analysis.
Without Words drifted from early 25's to 40/1 SP and won.
Perhaps more important to Guy's mind was that his favourite
horse on the day, Forgotten Treasure Won.
However everything else that day outside of his researched analysis
was a monstrous cluster f*ck.
Our hosting company suffered calamity and our site was down
between 4:50 am and 7:30 pm.
They got my email working faster than the site by 2pm that day.
It was by far the worst technology disaster day in the twenty odd years
we have been running the site here.
The result was that about 95% of clients got no Sunday message from us.
The 5% that did had emailed me asking "where is it?".
I was able to forward it after 2pm when the hosts
got my email working again.
In the evening when able to contact clients normally again,
we did so to explain. I included Guy's analysis in that I
did not want them think Guy had in any way shirked responsibility
to work for them. He had done his bit but the technology had let us down
So Well Done on not joining for last Sunday.
It would have been a frustrating experience for you.
A bullet dodged.
Well a 95% chance it would have been.
The 5% would have been at the other end of the spectrum.
A 1 in 20 chance of kissing Miss World.
A 19 in 20 chance of having to tongue kiss a curly tailed pig.
Not great odds.
Unless of course you are David Cameron.
Anyhow learning from disaster we now have a means
to email all clients even if the website goes down.
So whilst I can not guarantee what racing results will
be this Weekend coming, I would be 100% certain
of Guy working hard and 99% certain of getting
the analysis sent out to clients.
Out of interest just today I added an option to use PayPal
on that Weekender join page.
This Weekend
Guy said this to Full members earlier today
Saturday
Account bet will be the plan
Could always go on Sunday
York looks very promising.
Believe that's my best track.
Calmer schedule this Sunday
Fontwell the only other card
York will get the full treatment
Our Saturday Day Pass is in its usual spot of
Or Why not test out the Weekender if you
are normally free for racing BOTH Saturday And Sunday.
DRIFTERS
One semi unusual race that caught my eye was the 3.05 Southwell on Tuesday.
Guy's analysis whittled the field down to two .
Using his usual £10 total stake style most stake went on an eventual loser.
£1 or ( 10% ) was an insurance win bet on River Blackwater.
At around 8/1 the net result would be very roughly breakeven
if the insurance bet paid off.
What was interesting was that River Blackwater
drifted and drifted over the course of the day.
The 8/1 at 10 am in morning price eventually ended up
at a somewhat crazy 25/1 SP.
What caused such a huge drift in percentage terms I do not know.
"Supply and Demand" shout the economists.
Well what caused that then I ponder.
I can not recall the precise words of the Racing Post about River Blackwater
but my recollection was that significant negative sentiment was expressed.
Sometimes I envisage the Racing Post as a Lemming boss with a big megaphone.
"I am heading to the cliff.
Come on Lads. Let's go!"
Whether an individual journalists opinion is right or wrong on the day
is not the key thing. More so perhaps is potential to over influence a
market due to large reach. Somedays two big megaphones may cancel
each other out. Other days by random chance they may both
be shouting the same message to their crowds.
What To Do When A Price Is Way Too Big?
Bet more on it might be the answer of PHD Mathematicians.
Take a roll of a die.
You win if it is a six.
You have 1 number for you
and 5 against you.
True odds are 5/1
Go down the road of mathematical Kelly Theorem etc and it will
tell you to bet zero percentage of your bankroll
unless the odds on offer are in excess of 5/1.
Your strike rate is fixed as a long term average of 1 win per 5 losses
If you can get 6/1 then it will suggest a certain percentage to stake.
If you can get 10/1 then the advised stake will be higher due to the fact that
the value edge is higher.
I grasp and understand that but I also grasp that a horse is not a die.
With racing there is always that pot of the unknown.
In that dreaded pot are worries such as ..
Are connections doing something devious
that is not in the public realm?
Are they happy to lay at any price because they are certain it will not win?
With that thought in ones head it is difficult to heed a nerdy Kelly geek chirping
in your ear about what you feel may be putting more money down
on a serious no hope drifter you have already bet at shorter.
I suspect in reality there are more conspiracy theories than there are true conspiracies.
The picture of connections laying at any price etc is probably rarer these days
than in the early days of exchanges.
More common perhaps may be them not betting their horse today
because it's true target race is a later date.
BOG of course is a great comfort if available to you.
The more it drifts the more you get paid if it wins.
Happy days.
Without BOG you are better not getting into the situation in the first place.
ie Be in no rush to back a horse you like that is drifting.
Let them drift to their extreme and then go in on them.
That does take more market watching time however.
Remember that in a room full of conspiracy theorists
you yourself would be judged a conspiracy theorist
if you were to propose the mad theory that there is
not always a conspiracy. Sometimes in fact markets just
do their own thing due to often irrational forces
of supply and demand.
A total wack job such a room may term you.
If ever running my own conspiracy
I would probably be a trainer or owner.
Just before the day that was right I would be on
the phone to my pre lined up journalists.
I would be telling them all about the numerous troubles
my poor horse faced and how low expectations were.
The fiddling would be less on the course and more so
in additional edge from stimulating a lack of public demand.
Perhaps brown envelope tokens of appreciation
could have them eagerly waiting to report my
future sage words of wisdom about my horses.
I am of course talking nonsense here as every sane person
knows that one is best to believe whole heartedly every word in the press.
A politician told me so :)