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A - Ante Post Genius or Folly?
B - The Eider Chase
A - Ante Post Genius or Folly?
The shock Cheltenham news this week was
that Colin Tizard's Gold Cup favourite
Thistlecrack suffered a tendon tear
and has been pulled out.
Oddschecker report that
- 8% of all ante-post Cheltenham bets included Thistlecrack
- 22% of ante-post Cheltenham accumulators included Thistlecrack
So I guess many punters will be bemoaning the folly of ante
post.
On the flip side of course many others who opposed Thistlecrack
with
alternate selections will now be smugly looking at the prices
they took
being much higher than is available today.
Folly or genius is often dictated by the decisions one makes.
Had Thistlecrack run I suspect Guy himself may have opposed
him.
Not so much out of disrespect for the horse but more so on
the grounds that excess hype may have resulted in over compression
of it's price. Markets are a bit like an air mattress.
If one corner is squeezed and compressed then it is elsewhere
that you will find that happy bouncy feel one is seeking.
Guy himself did make a rare deviation to the Cheltenham ante
post
zone of things a month or two back telling clients he had personally
backed Yanworth at 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle.
The average price now is about 7/2 with a bit of 4/1 about
so right now that one is looking more genius than folly.
Should you find yourself with a very good ante post price
way above current market odds and there would be two
schools of thought as to what to do.
#1 - let it ride with the view that it is a bet of excess value
#2 - lay back at lower odds to negate any risk to capital.
eg say one had £100 @ 10/1 and you could now lay at 5/1
you could lay back £100 at 5/1.
That would get you net £0 if it lost or £500 net
profit if it won.
Infinity to one in theory are the net odds you achieve
with your restructured bet :)
( thought of exchange commission omitted for simplicity
but shout if you want an example & spreadsheet
with commission accounted for)
You can lay back a bit less and risk a bit of stake
for a possible higher payout if it wins.
Or lay a bit more and make a small profit even if it loses.
Such #1 or #2 choices are often a matter of personal taste.
One will always be the right hindsight choice after a result
is known.
But over many races both styles can win.
Guy would veer towards #1 in nature.
I myself would be more so in the #2 camp.
Horses for courses as they say.
B - The Eider Chase
Guy told full members yesteday that The Eider Chase
will be a race he will be giving a serious going over
on Saturday.
This race has bitter sweet memories from last year.
Sweet in as much that Guy's advice would have
provided a return of 80% of one's investment in the race.
Bitter because the late booking of a pimply faced
teenage jockey on the horse Guy fancied most
caused him to re evaluate and downgrade Rocking Blues
from primary bet to lower staked sub bet.
Said jockey has gone on to have 2 wins from 61
attempts after that day.
Paying heed to the booking of a very inexperienced jockey
instead of being blind and oblivious to such matters
I would say is correct strategy for the long term.
4 miles over fences is a long time in which a mistake
due to inexperience can happen.
Guy's Eider Chase analysis from last year I have copied below
for you.
Some of the thought train could be useful to those of you who
may wish to do a bit of work creating your own shortlist
of likely contenders for this year.
Or if you prefer the idea of time efficiency
just book in for the Saturday message at
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www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
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assuming you have not done so already.
Guy will put in many hours of research and write his
expert conclusions up for you.
11 am Saturday is the cut off point to book in for.
But this week I would urge you to get booked in today
or much earlier than that 11am final deadline because
Guy may send an earlier than usual Saturday message this week.
Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
Eider Chase 2016
N e w c a s t l e 2.50
6/1 Ballyculla, 13/2 Shotgun Paddy, 7/1 Russe Blanc
8/1 Rocking Blues, 10/1 Portrait King, 12/1 Beforeall
12/1 Cultram Abbey, 12/1 Milborough, 14/1 Summery Justice
14/1 Woodford County, 14/1 Wyck Hill, 16/1 Cork Citizen
20/1 Lackamon, 20/1 Mysteree, 25/1 Glenquest
33/1 Presented, 33/1 William Money.
The Eider Chase is a handicap over 4m 1f
There are 15 recent renewals
I will start with some breeding Stats
These 5 horses come out best
They are from the safest sires in similar races
MILBOROUGH
WYCK HILL
RESENTED
PORTRAIT KING
WILLIAM MONEY
Handicap Chases over 3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Any time of year
There are 76 of these marathon races
Horses aged 12 or more are just 1-127
That was 2014 Grand National winner Amberleigh House
I am against the horses aged 12 or more
GLENQUEST is rejected aged 13
WYCK HILL has to go as a 12yo seasonal debutant
He has won fresh but when a younger age
That 1-127 record all year round seals his fate
SUMMERY JUSTICE is rejected aged 12
If you take races at this time of year
Handicap Chases over 3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Horses aged 11 or more
6 or more previous Chase starts
There is a 0-92 record with these horses
LACKAMON fails this angle
He's never won off this mark or in this class
PORTRAIT KING is also hard to like aged 11
Not when he is so far away from his best form
Horses with 1 run this season trouble me
Past winners had the following runs that season
3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 5 7 4 3 6 6
None have won this race with just the 1 run
BEFOREALL is rejected with 1 run since April
He has never won from his mark or in this class before
CORK CITIZEN has only raced once this season too
It's a big ask for him given the ability he's shown so far
If you look at horses sired by Overbury
That run in Class 2 or higher
They are 0-39 over further than 3 miles
BALLYCULLA has raced just once since May
Throw in a 78 day break and his profile is unsafe
Past winners had the following absences
83 20 17 14 63 28 13 7 23 23 21 29 56
BALLYCULLA has longer off than all bar 1 recent winners
He has fewer recent races than all recent winners
There is also a stamina doubt
Look at horses sired by Westerner
This sire is not convincing over marathon trips
His only winner beyond 3m 2f came in a Class 5 race
Those that raced in Class 4 or higher are 0-16 so far
He is not safe on my breeding statistics
I want far more positives for a horse at 7/1
PRESENTED lacks the class off bottomweight
Since 1952 there has been 42 renewals of this race
Recent Eider winners had these Chase runs
11 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8 16 11 9 19 29 13 17 9
CULTRAM ABBEY has just 4 Chase runs
That's fewer than any past winner of this race
He also comes from a 2m 3f race
Not acceptable with so few Chase runs
I also have him down as a doubtful stayer
MYSTEREE has only has 3 Chase runs
Recent Eider winners had these Chase runs
11 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8 16 11 9 19 29 13 17 9
From a Novice Handicap Chase he is hard to like
His 3 Chase wins were in fields of 4 2 4 runners
This is considerably harder task
RUSSE BLANC won the Warwick Chase last time
I got him wrong last time
I didn't think he would stay
His sire is an Ex French flat bred
RUSSE BLANC is the sire's only runner
He stayed well enough to win that race
This is much further though
And the Warwick Chase is not a good trial race
Last time out winners are normally lighter raced
I have my doubts about him
But I can't argue a very strong case against him
Shortlist
I fancy óne of 5 horses
MILBOROUGH
WOODFORD COUNTY
ROCKING BLUES
SHOTGUN PADDY
WILLIAM MONEY
MILBOROUGH won this race last year
He did it with a 83 day absence and a mark of 134
This year he has a 91 day absence and mark of 140
Lightning will have to strike twice
But I have no strong angles against him
WOODFORD COUNTY was 3rd in this race last year
He has just finished 5th in the Welsh National
The record of horses from that race is inconclusive
He is a smart long distance Chaser
Obviously the risk is has he done too much
He's won a 3m 6f at Exeter
Then ran a fine 5th in the Welsh National
You certainly can't rule him out
He has placed in a Midlands National
He has placed in an Eider Chase
It was a toss up for the second saver
Between him and Shotgun Paddy
ROCKING BLUES is 11 years old
He is not ideal as a horse this age
In similar races in January to March
We know horses aged 11 with 6 + Chase runs are 0-92
ROCKING BLUES fails that statistic
But I would cut him sock slack
He only had 1 race before he was 7 years old
He is very lightly raced for his age
He has bolted up in his last 2 races
His Racing Post Rating last time was 138
That suggests to me he is well treated off 126 today
He has to prove stamina of course
And prove he can deliver in a big field
He was always the natural bet in the race
But I have issues with his jockey (see below)
SHOTGUN PADDY is the class horse with Topweight
He unseated rider when favourite for this last year
The Class horse very often wins this race
Two runs this year I would rather have 3
But he only faces a 0-141 Class field today
He has enough Class to overcome that
I failed his profile in last years race
To much weight for an 8 year old
That now does not apply as a 9yo
SHOTGUN PADDY was 3rd in the Welsh National
The record of horses from that race is inconclusive
Obviously it could count against him
But I would want him on my side
I don't discount the chance he could outclass these
WILLIAM MONEY may well have a chance
He has a sire who has to be respected
16 Chase starts is really only 14 Chase starts
As he has twice fallen at the first fence before
Not too worried about that given his price
He is consistent record over fences
He won his last race of the 2015 season at Haydock
That was a personal best and a rating of 121
Today he only has a rating of 122 to overcome
This year his form is 6th Fell PU 7th
WILLIAM MONEY needed his 1st run of the season
He then Fell at the first fence at Newcastle
This meant that when he went to Kelso in December
He was short of runs
I made him a Negative at Kelso
That day He had the longest absence or every runner
And also carried the biggest weight that day
He was never going to win a heavy ground 4 miler
With Topweight and just 1 run that season
He was beaten a long way at Haydock last time
Always forgive any horse any run at Haydock
Besides that he probably was not there to win this
This is probably the race he has been laid out for
Given the price I think this is a very interesting bet
Conclusion
There is no doubt at all
That if he was ridden by a Professional jockey
ROCKING BLUES would be my bet and a confident one
I have run into some doubts
Because he is ridden by a 10lbs claimer
Lorcan Murtagh is 17 years and 5 months old
With a name like that he should be good
But he is still only a Boy
He has never won a race beyond 3 miles
He has Never ridden in this Class or higher
He has a career record of 4 wins from 63 rides
Look at his record in fields of 10 + runners
In bigger sized fields he has a 0-32 record
I have looked at 8lbs and 10lbs claimers
Running in Chases
Class 3 or higher
8 or more runners
None have won a race beyond 3m 1f
Not at any time of year
I feel I just can't trust this Kid
He would have been my bet with a better pilot
I have to save on him
If I have misjudged this Kid
Then it would be too painful to watch him win
SHOTGUN PADDY could easily have been Number 1
Not overkeen on his trainer as you know
And he is just as capable of getting himself beaten
I can make a good case on Class for him
But I am happier with him as a saver
This leaves WILLIAM MONEY
He is the main bet partly because of the price
Partly because you can build a case around him
Selection
£3.50 Each Way WILLIAM MONEY 25/1 + [Lost]
£2.00 Win Bet ROCKING BLUES 9/1 [WON]
£1.00 Win Bet SHOTGUN PADDY 9/1 [2nd]
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