Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
Hi
 
We have a busy weekend of racing ahead of us.
Guy will be analysing multiple races on both Saturday and Sunday.
Lots going on in the uk and Ireland but additionally this weekend
Guy will be trying to avoid any snails over in France.
 
I have some early research work below for you.
 
#1 - Saturday - Ascot 3.35 - Challenge Cup Heritage Handicap
 
#2 - Sunday - Longchamp 3.05 - Prix de L'arc de Triomphe
 
 
Guy was suggesting to Full members today that he sees
fair chance of an Account Bet on Saturday.
These Account Bets of his are quite rare.
Perhaps one per week on average.
Over about the past three years however
profit on turnover has been very strong
at about 30%.
With that edge they are a popular aspect of the service with clients.
However they are just one component of the bigger thing.
 
Anyhow now for the bit non salesman me is always uncomfortable doing
ie putting in front of your noses the links where you can go invest
a few quid to bag for yourself Guy's day of race weekend analysis.
 
#1 - Saturday only [ if you are not already booked in ]
 
or
 
#2 - The Weekender for Saturday AND Sunday.
 
 
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Ante Post Statistics

Saturday October 5th

Ascot 3.35

Challenge Cup

Heritage Handicap 7f


Past winners career runs
19 64 7 16 20 8 10 23 30 12 8 18
All past winners had 7 + races

Past winners runs since July
4 7 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 1 6

Past winners absences
22 14 43 14 7 15 43 14 42 14 15 14
All past winners ran within 43 days

The last 9 winners
Won from these draws
13 6 2 17 17 8 16 8 10 12 4 13

High draws have been best
But if the ground gets soft
Low numbers also do well

Horses winning last time out
Have a poor 0-35 record in this

Horses aged 3
Have a 3-29 record
The 3 winners aged 3
Had 7 8 12 career runs
Absent 14 15 43 days
Rated 100 103 104

Horses aged 4
Have a 4-62 record
Had 19 18 8 10 career runs
Absent 22 14 15 43 days
Rated  96 101 105 108

Horses aged 5
Have a 3-49 record
Had 16 23 30 career runs
Absent 14 14 42 days
Rated 101 101 104

Horses rated 99 or lower
Have a poor 2-62 record
Those aged 3-4-5 are 0-37

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 2-51 record in this
Those absent over 2 weeks
Have a winless 1-40 record

Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 15 days
Have a poor 1-67 record

Horses from 6f races
Won 4 of the 11 renewals
They all had the same profile
Ran in the Ayr Gold Cup
Beaten under 5 lengths in that

No horse has won this
Coming from Class 3 or lower
All 15 that tried were beaten






Sunday October 6th

Longchamp 3.05

Prix de L'arc de Triomphe

4/1 Sosie, 13/2 Look De Vega, 7/1 Shin Emperor
8/1 Los Angeles, 11/1 Delius, 12/1 Al Riffa
12/1 Bluestocking,16/1 Content 16/1 Aventure,
25/1 Mqse De Sevigne

First quick look at the race

One that does have a draw bias

Ultimately one we have to guess in

Ground currently very soft but drying
One or two need to be supplemented

No significant older horses
Fewer negatives than normal

AL RIFFA won't be my selection
He has the longest absence in this

CONTINUOUS failed last season
Don't expect he will be good enough

May not be many that can win

Japan have never won the race

SHIN EMPEROR their big hop
Hard to know what to expect
How much improvement he has
After running in Ireland last time
But not keen on his sire Siyouni

Horses sired by Siyouni
Running over 11f or more
Listed and Graded class
Have a 0-24 record so far
SHIN EMPEROR next to try

One will win soon
Could easily do it in France
But so far all the sires results
Suggest stamina is an issue

The sire never ran past a mile
The dam unproven beyond 7f
SHIN EMPEROR may still win
But not convinced by pedigree


Looking at the Prix Neil 21 days ago

1st SOSIE

2nd DELIUS

3rd LOOK DE VEGA

LOOK DE VEGA was odds on
Did his stamina let him down ?
Not sure but not keen on him
Mainly because of the sire
Lope De Vega is unconvincing

Lope De Vega runners
Over 12 furlongs and further
Running in Group 1 races
Have a 0-19 record so far

Those with under 6 runs
Running in all group races
Over 12f or more are 0-34

LOOK DE VEGA fails this

3 year olds
Won 19 of the last 30 renewals
With the following career runs

5 7 7 4 11 4 8 6 6 6
8 8 7 7 3 6 6 6 7 7

Most had 5 or more runs

LOOK DE VEGA has 4 runs
Does not make him a negative
But he is the least experienced
Every other 3yo in this has more
With stamina doubts not for me

SOSIE is a French 3 year old
No objections to him right now
Other than he is the favourite

DELIUS 2nd in the Prix Niel
Also looks a positive as well

Aidan has 5 entered

Remains to be seen which turn up

Too early to take a strong view
[ on Wednesday when originally sent ]
 
=====================
 
Best of luck
 
 
Best of luck
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

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