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The French call them Escargot
I with my less educated palette think
"Yuck - Roast Slugs with shells"
Yes it's a French theme this weekend
with the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
meeting from France taking the starring role
on the racing weekend calendar.
It's been temporarily shifted from it's usual home of
Longchamp to Chantilly so that will be a subtle
difference to bear in mind.
The Big race itself falls on the Sunday.
As a one off special we are doing a 2 for 1 style deal
on the Saturday Day Pass this weekend.
Book in for the Saturday message ( before 11 am Saturday )
and not only will we send you Saturday's racing analysis
we will send you the Sunday message too as a bonus
freebie on the house.
Sunday's will arrive on Sunday morning circa 11.30.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
And just to clarify for any Saturday regulars who use the
10 for £25 optional available via
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass/members/purchase.php
Yes of course you will get the Sunday message too assuming
you were booked in for the Saturday.
Guy says he will definitely be taking a good look at the Arc
on Sunday.
In 2015 he just took a quick look for members with no joy.
2014 was more expansive and he highlighted 2nd place 20/1 Flintshire
each way.
I have copied that one below for you.
Compare the effort and thought Guy puts in
to the scant thoughts of your average mug shop punter.
Is it any big surprise one is a long term
winner and the other a long term loser?
And returning to my silly comment about snails earlier
..there was actually a semi point to that idiocy.
That point may be - Be aware of differences between international
opinions.
The Arc meeting is a little different to the norm in as much
as there is a strong
highly liquid parimutual tote market over in France.
It's like a third extra choice.
Bookmaker , exchange such as Betfair
or French tote.
Bookies and exchanges you could lump together as Britain.
The French Tote obviously as France.
There is scope for difference in opinion between the two populations.
It's not to hard to imagine the French public more prone to
bet
French horses or horses that have run well in France.
Then perhaps the other way about from the British population.
A horse may be judged Escargot by the French
or as Roast Slug in the uk.
Significant difference will not always occur.
But if you have your radar out and scanning
you will be more prone to spot it if it does.
You then bet against whichever crowd
disagrees with you the most.
How do you bet a French tote odds?
Simply a case of betting at SP with a bookie who
settles SP bets according to French tote payout odds.
Some uk bookies may not and instead use a uk market
focused self generated SP.
RaceBets
are one for definite that use French tote odds if you select
SP.
RaceBets I would peg as quite a decent bookie for the
more casual racing punter. Lots of regular perks and concessions
( see their offers page ) and a fun regular Bash The Bookie
competition.
But like quite a few others they are not too fond of super
sharp higher stakes long term winning punters.
Anyhow a good 2 days for the price of 1 deal
this weekend here at Mathematician Betting.
£3 gets you Guys high class racing analysis
for both Saturday and Sunday.
Take the price.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
2014 Arc De Triomphe Analysis As A Sample of Style
Longchamp 3.30
5/1 Ectot, 6/1 Taghrooda, 7/1 Harp Star
7/1 Just A Way, 8/1 Avenir Certain, 10/1 Treve
12/1 Gold Ship, 14/1 Ruler Of The World, 14/1 Tapestry
16/1 Ivanhowe, 20/1 Kingston Hill, 25/1 Dolniya
25/1 Flintshire, 33/1 Prince Gibraltar, 40/1 Chicquita
40/1 Spiritjim, 66/1 Al Kazeem, 66/1 Free Port Lux
100/1 Siljan´s Saga, 250/1 Montviron.
* The Arc De Triomphe is a Group 1 over 12f
* I will start by showing some Racing Post Ratings
* This shows all past winners previous two ratings
* It shows what it has taken to win this race
* 2013 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 120-118
* 2012 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 110 -110
* 2011 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 119-124
* 2010 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 129-108
* 2009 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 129-138
* 2008 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 124-120
* 2007 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 128-126
* 2006 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 121-121
* 2005 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 126-126
* 2004 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 116-125
* 2003 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 126-119
* 2002 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 121-126
* 2001 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 118-135
* 2000 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 132-125
* 1999 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 133-120
* 1998 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 00- 123
* 1997 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 120-115
* 1996 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 121-120
* 1995 winner- last 2 Racing Post Ratings are 123-124
* 18 of the last 19 winners managed a rating of 120 +
* I would be wary of horses that have yet to achieve this
* 3 year olds are have won 17 of the last 21 renewals.
* They should be given priority but only if the right type
* It gives an idea of how exposed each winner were
* 3yo winners had 4 11 4 8 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 3 6 6 6 7 7 races
* 3yo winners had 3 6 3 5 4 6 5 4 5 5 5 3 4 6 6 6 6 runs that
year
* Older winners had 12 17 16 9 13 11 14 13 11 runs
* Older winners had 5 7 5 2 6 4 5 6 4 runs this year
* There are only about 6 we can confidently rule out
* SPIRITJIM doesn't have the numbers after 10 runs
* SILJAN´S SAGA has the same profile and is outclassed
* MONTVIRON and FREE PORT LUX are outclassed
* The last winner aged 6 or more was in 1932
* AL KAZEEM makes no appeal as a 6 year old
* Aidan O'Brien his trainer has bad record with 3yo's here
* He runs CHICQUITA and RULER OF THE WORLD
* CHICQUITA has raced just once this season
* No winner has won with 1 run that season in decades
* CHICQUITA is out as a 4yo filly with 1 run this year
* RULER OF THE WORLD doesn't smell like an Arc winner
* Short of runs this year in a field size too big for him
* He was out with the washing in last years race
* I agree with the general view he is an unlikely winner
* KINGSTON HILL wouldn't be my first choice
* Not coming down in trip from the St Leger
* It's a bad trial race and he may want it softer
* It can take about 30 seconds more time to win a St Leger
* Not hard to see him out speeded in this race
* Stall 20 of 20 is enough factor against him
* DOLNIYA doesn't have the numbers
* A Career best Racing Post Rating of 112 is very low
* 18 of the last 19 winners managed a rating of 120 +
* There are some similarities with the 2011 winner
* That horse was 3rd in the same trial
* That horse was the 1 winner with low numbers
* Thats the one chance you can give DOLNIYA
* That said the 2011 winner was lucky
* She was not the best horse in the race
* And 18 of the last 19 winners achieved more
* I am wary of horses without 120 + Racing Post Ratings
* IVANHOWE only has a career best of 117
* Given his draw in Stall 19 he looks one to avoid
* ECTOT has a career best rating of 118
* ECTOT was very impressive in the Prix Neil
* My other problem with him is 2 runs this season
* Past winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 6 3 5 4 7 6 5 4 5 5 2 5 5 3 4 6 2 6 6 4 6 6
* Since 1990 from 24 winners only 2 had just 1 run
* One was a 4yo a year older than him
* The other was Lammtara in 1995 who only had 3 runs
* You may overlook it if he had 3-4 runs but he has 7
* He may go and win and defy his lack of runs and numbers
* I don't see enough positives with these factors against him
* PRINCE GIBRALTAR hasn't achieved a rating of 120
* I backed him in the spring for this race
* I've gone off him but just pleased he has turned up
* Pleasant surprise but I'm cold on him now
* AVENIR CERTAIN has a career best 118 Rating
* Thats lower than 18 of the last 19 winners
* AVENIR CERTAIN is a 3yo filly
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won all came from 12f
* AVENIR CERTAIN comes from 10f which may be an issue
* Not proven either way but I see it as a minor negative
* She has another Minor Negative a 47 day break
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won off 21 28 21 days
* AVENIR CERTAIN off 6 weeks and up in trip is an issue
* She's not a close fit to the recent 3yo fillies that won
* AVENIR CERTAIN has to prove her stamina as well
* Her little known sire has a low stamina index of 7f
* So does the sire of her dam as well
* Her Dam (Puggy) never proved herself beyond 7f
* She has never raced over 12f before
* Look at the last 30 winners of this race
* 29 of the 30 had raced over 12f before
* Only the 1990 winner did not do this
* The last 23 winners had ran over 12f before
* The fact she hasn't can not be a good thing
* She must be one of the least likely stayers
* She's not like last 23 winners who had 12f form
* Stall 1 could easily hurt her chances if held up
* AVENIR CERTAIN seems to have a lot to prove
* TAGHROODA won the Oaks and King George
* She was then beaten at 1/5 in the Yorkshire Oaks
* That would worry me to be honest
* She was trained to peak in the Oaks
* She was good enough to win the King George
* She did get that huge 15lbs weight/sex allowance
* Now TAGHROODA is being asked to peak a 3rd time
* No filly that won a King George has won an Arc before
* She may win but I think there are safer options
* TREVE was devastating last year in winning
* She was inexperienced and badly drawn
* This year she's been a shadow of herself
* Some talk of injuries and problems
* I just wonder if last years race broke her
* You can't say that she couldn't bounce back and win
* Like many though I doubt it and don't want to risk her
* TAPESTRY has achieved the required rating
* I'm not convinced about her though
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won had 4 4 6 runs
* TAPESTRY has 8 runs now
* Aidan O'Brien has a bad record here with 3 year olds
* I don't like the fact she comes from a mile race
* I may be wrong but I don't see enough I like
S H O R T L I S T
JUST A WAY
HARP STAR
GOLD SHIP
FLINTSHIRE
* GOLD SHIP is a 5 year old
* 5 year olds are 0-27 since 2003 1-39 since 1996
* Not many were fancied and I can overlook that
* The 2 past winners aged 5 raced 5 times that season
* GOLD SHIP has 4 runs this season - one less
* They had absences of 7 and 35 days
* GOLD SHIP has 42 days absence - a bit longer
* I'd prefer another run this year or a more recent run
* I wouldn't rule him out because of that
* I was worried he had so much form over 14f +
* The last 5yo winner Marienbad also had that though
* What Marienbad didn't do was come from a 10f race
* None of the 5yo winners won this from a 10f race
* Respected but I don't feel he's the best Japanese horse
* HARP STAR is a Japenese 3yo filly
* She is the first Japenese 3yo filly to try and win
* 3 of the last 6 winners were 3yo fillies
* They had 4 4 6 runs and had 3 3 6 this year
* HARP STAR looks good with 6 runs and 4 this year
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won all came from 12f
* HARP STAR comes from 10f which could be an issue
* The 1990 winner managed it but it was some time ago
* Not proven either way but I see that as a minor negative
* She has another Minor Negative a 42 day break
* The 3 recent 3yo fillies that won off 21 28 21 days
* HARP STAR off 6 weeks and up in trip is an issue
* She's not a perfect fit to the recent 3yo fillies that won
* She could win. Much depends on her jockeys decisions.
* JUST A WAY is a Japanese Machine
* Reading about him he sounds unbelievable
* He is clearly one of the best horses in the world
* Statistically he has some problems as a 5yo
* 5 year olds are 0-27 since 2003
* 5 year olds are 1-39 since 1996
* Not many were fancied and I can overlook that
* Past 5yo winners had 5 + runs that season
* JUST A WAY only has 3 runs this season
* He also has to face an absence of 119 days
* Past winners had the following days absence
* 21 21 28 71 29 21 29 21 21 21 21 35 47 21 21 21 21
* JUST A WAY also has to prove his stamina
* Last seen over 8f proven at 10f but not at 12f
* There are problems statistically with him
* You could answer these this simple statement
* JUST A WAY is the highest rated horse in the World
* Surely that has to be a reasonable answer
* His trainer states "I've trained him to get the trip
"
* He looks worth a saver to me
* Statistical Negatives v The best horse in the race
* FLINTSHIRE seems to have a good chance
* He has achieved the required numbers
* The ground beat him in last years race
* He has a W W W 2 2 record away from soft ground
* His last run was a prep run and he needed it
* He is a Group 1 winner over course and distance too
* He hasn't done anything wrong when conditions suited
Selection
FLINTSHIRE 20/1 Each Way [ Finished 2nd ]
JUST A WAY 8/1 Saver
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