Hi Folks
Items in this week's free news include
#1 - Birthday Boy Bashes Bookies
#2 - Gold Cup Sire Stats
#3 - Percentage Club Update
#4 - Saturday - Classic Handicap Chase Stats
But before we get on to those let's get the obligatory
plug for our Saturday service option out of the way.
Here is the link for those of you yet to book in.
#1 - Birthday Boy Bashes Bookies
I received the following pleasant email last Friday from a client
who has been with us as a full member for a few years.
Hi Mick/Guy
I had to drop you a line.
It was my birthday on the 5th January. (54 years young)
As mentioned, Guy's emails are generally the only ones I look forward to.
Lockdown, crap weather and no celebrations.
Put your five selections into a £1 e/w Super Yankee.
Watched the last leg; Sharrabang @ 4/1 finish it's race,
perfectly ridden by Faye(?) a claiming rider.
All five won - happy birthday!
Only the second time I've ever had a Super Yankee up.
The first was for pennies on a Bank Holiday Monday in the early Nineties.
This time I won £3200.
Thank you!
I shall be a lifetime subscriber.
Give me an address or P.O Box and I'll gladly
send you both a bottle of your favourite tipple.
All the best,
This one warmed my heart.
After trying for 30 odd years our friend RC finally landed a super yankee again.
Best of all the gods of racing karma decided his birthday was the day for it to happen.
In a world of bad news it is good to feel that nice things sometimes do indeed happen.
What Is A Super Yankee?
It is a perm bet where five selections are permed as follows.
10 doubles,
10 trebles,
5 four-fold's
1 five-fold accumulator.
So 26 bets total.
Is A Super Yankee A Shrewd Bet?
If it wins hindsight may say a gloating  "yes" but the vast majority of the time it's a "No".
Walk into a bookies an announce loudly that you want to put on a Super Yankee
and the bookie will probably be all smiles and very pleased to see you.
One pedantic technical issue with them is that equal stakes are applied to all legs.
The singles at shorter odds get allocated the same stake as the super long odds five fold.
Classic bank roll management theory such as Kelly etc would lead one more so
to reduce bank roll percentage when strike rate is lower.
The tefal boffin head with a strong eye on efficient bankroll management
might deconstruct it into 26 separate bets
and set stakes on each leg to appropriate levels.
Few in the real world will bother doing that of course.
The above I would say is minor pedantic technical stuff but
perhaps much more important to bookie success with such bets from
casual recreational punters is the impact of poor odds
and how the bookie enhancing edge multiplies up when
two or more poor odds bets are used in multiples.
eg say a mug punter throws darts to come up with a few selections.
For sake of argument let's say the bookie has a 10% edge on singles.
Make 1000 such single bets at £1 each over time
and one would expect the bookie to net win £100
Now lets look at doubles.
Here the bookie edge factors up.
1.1 *1.1 = 1.21 or a 21% edge in the bookie favor.
1000 * £1 bets and the bookie would expect to keep £210
It would get worse for the punter for trebles etc.
The core issue is not strike rate but the % rate of loss on turnover.
For singles the punter has the power to shop around
and get optimal odds.
For Super Yankees and the likes however
the punter usually ends up with several legs of his bet at far from optimal odds
due to the fact that it forces use of odds from one single bookmaker.
From that point on the bookie has the punter in the trap
of maths and numbers heavily staked against the punter.
The honey of the potential of big returns from small stakes
placed in easy fashion is the lure that blinds many to the trap.
Are Accumulators Always Bad?
Like most tools the tool itself is usually not to blame.
More problems arise from human use of the tool.
I my self have past discovered that a big hammer, a nail
and sub floor board water pipe are not a great mix.
Sitting shame faced in a spurting fountain of water I would have
been wrong to blame the hammer.
Quite common for example may be someone who
first decides they are going to do a treble or a yankee or super yankee.
That decision made they then go on to plug the spots with horses at
poorer than available elsewhere odds.
On the flip side a shrewdie may have two horses he feels offer value edge as singles.
He discovers that one bookmaker happens to be top price on both.
With that knowledge he decides to add in a smaller stakes double in addition to his singles.
If he is correct about his edge factor on the singles then it is
worth noting that edge factor can compound up on the double.
eg say he has 10% edge on singles then the double would be at
1.1 * 1.1 = 1,21 or 21% edge albeit at a lower expected strike rate to the singles.
It is really just a matter of understanding your
tools and choosing the right tool for the specific job that day.
Picture for example a tradesman arriving at the door of your house.
He fires up his chain saw and declares himself ready to get to work.
How will he install the new light fitting with that chainsaw you wonder?
Much better if he assess the problem carefully and then selects the right tool.
Obviously it is a bit tougher for average punters as the bookies tend not to want to explain such styled thinking. Quite the opposite in fact with bookie shop walls and windows drawing attention to chainsaw punts whose maths favor the bookie more.
Bear in mind that I myself carry around the ball and chain that
I hope and expect to net win long term with my personal  punting.
This influences my thinking and my actions.
No need to heed boring conservative me too much
if one is more so a smaller recreational punter
happy to continually net lose a bit and bag good
entertainment value from doing so.
Do We Advise Lots Of Crazy Accumulators Here?
We did not even advise the Birthday Boy Bookie Basher one above.
Whilst we can take credit for detailed race analysis of multiple daily races
the decision to put them into a super yankee rested solely on the shoulders of our client.
The multiple races analysed each day nature of the service here however
does lend itself well to those sorts who like to take information and do their own thing with it.

[ see a few old sample messages at that demo the multi races analysed style at ]

In the financial world Warren Buffet may employ an analyst to research and number crunch.
Mr Buffet then takes that output  and makes his own mind how to use it.
I like to think of our clients as individual Warren Buffets
who each adapt the research message provided to best suit them.
They can pick themselves to be selective or aim for more frequent turnover from more races.
They can go singles only or spice it up with the odd double or even on occasion
such as Mr Birthday Boy push the boat out with some crazy punt.
Ante post stuff in the message they can take or leave.
Some may see lays when short priced favourites are opposed by Guy's stats.
Which precise bookie accounts they have left and open to them will influence individual action.
We tend to do better with slightly more experienced "been around the bush" punters than gullible newbies.
Been around the bush sorts will have already had the experience of a lot of classic tipster marketing
and noted how their real world experience under real world constraints does not match up to the hype.
Guy getting up at 4am to bake a wider range of researched races gives more of a buffet experience.
Clients can then pick off the table the bits that appeal most to them personally.
It suits well the Warren Buffet types who value good research and reasoning from which they then control their own destiny from.
But it does of course suit less those who want to be instructed to three decimal places what to do.
#2 - Gold Cup Sire Stats
I picked this out of Guy's Thursday message.
Really just a quick little snippet of info to do
with sire stats and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Those with Royal blood in their veins may be prone to profess
that "Breeding is everything."
On the other hand many peasant mongrels it may suit themselves politically to say
"Consideration of breeding or genetics has zero value."
The truth as ever usually lies somewhere between the two extremes.
On the scale above my views might be the result of a boozy liaison
between a Royal Corgi and a flea bitten slabber hound.
Content to sip butler served Pims  and play croquet on the lawn so long as I can
scratch myself and lick my knackers vigorously in between shots.
ie Silly to believe it the only gospel
Silly to be 100% blind to it.
Best to see it as an extra layer of data or viewpoint  one can
combine with alternates to form an improved overall perspective.
Common sense I guess.
Gold Cup Sire Stats
9/2 Al Boum Photo 8/1 Minella Indo
10/1 Santini 10/1 A Plus Tard  12/1 Champ
16/1 Frodon 25/1 Kemboy  25/1 Delta Work
25/1 Melon 33/1 Lostintranslation 33/1 Allaho
33/1 Presenting Percy 40/1 Saint Calvados
40/1 Royal Pagaille 40/1 Imperial Aura
The following horses
Come from sires
Who have never bred a winner
Beyond 3m 1f in Listed/Graded class
8/1 Minella Indo
10/1 A Plus Tard
12/1 Champ
16/1 Frodon
25/1 Delta Work
25/1 Melon
25/1 Kemboy
40/1 Saint Calvados
40/1 Imperial Aura
40/1 Royal Pagaille
A PLUS TARD one of my positives
Does make this list unfortunately
Given that he is sired by Kapgarde
Would not be too worried though
Consider these as more unproven
Than horses who must be dammed
But the safest horses on sire stats
9/2 Al Boum Photo
10/1 Santini
Something to bear in mind
As we head to the final bet
#3 - Percentage Club Update
In last week's free news I touched on the Percentage Club
copying for you from Full member material one for Cheltenham.
In short they are ante post bets Guy feels have a strong sense of running
and that will ( hopefully ) be shorter on race day.
Last weekend saw one past advised back in early December go to post.
Welsh National winner Secret Reprieve was 7/1 ish back then but 5/2 on the day.
Some problems are good problems.
Sitting on at 7/1 when the market is 5/2 and you can either let it ride
or if you prefer you can lay back for a zero risk position
at the expense of some profit should it win.
Or you can even lay back more than initial stake to guarantee a profit either way.
Sort of into the zone of personal style and preference here.
One for individual investors to stamp their own personal taste on.
Fingers crossed the one in last weeks free news gives
you similar positive dilemmas come Cheltenham Festival Time.
#4 - Saturday - Classic Handicap Chase Stats
Just a bit of advance start work here for the
Classic Handicap Chase At Warwick on Saturday
that I have pinched from Guy's full member material for you.
Starter phase stuff to determine some key long term trends.
Hopefully this will interest the DIY'ers amongst you.
Or if you are more so the sort who prefers
final conclusions well this is one of the races that Guy
will be doing extra work on in time for his £3 Saturday message.
Ante Post Statistics
Warwick 3.30
Classic Handicap Chase
Notachance 5/1 Storm Control 6/1 Nearly Perfect 7/1
Le Breuil 8/1 Lil Rockerfeller 8/1 Late Romantic 9/1
Achille 12/1 Captain Chaos  12/1 Danny Whizzbang 12/1
Eclair de Guye 12/1 Walk In The Mill 12/1 Django Django 14/1
The Worlds End 14/1 Ballyoptic 16/1 Didero Vallis 16/1
The Hollow Ginge 16/1 Western Climate 16/1 Holdbacktheriver  20/1
Petite Power 20/1 Financial Outcome 25/1 Red Infantry 33/1
Only 1 past winner
Was rated higher than 145
None were rated over 156
Past winners of this race
Had the following Chase runs
14 5 13 9 17 12 3 11 16 9 16 13
No horse has won
With over 17 chase runs
All 56 that tried were beaten
Horses aged 12 or more
Have never won this race (0-23)
Days absences of winners
35 26 7 42 36 14 28 28
18 31 42 12 31 14 9
Every winner since 2001
Raced within the last 42 days
Those that did not were 0-31
Having a poor recent run
Could be asking for trouble
January and February
Handicap Chases over 2m 6f +
Listed and Graded Class
Horses running within 20 days
Completing in that race
But beaten over a length
Have a 0-60 record in them
Past winners of this race
Had the following runs that year
1 1 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 4 3
Past renewals show
Horses running within 41 days
Beaten over 12 lengths last time
Have a 0-44 record in this race
Horses with over 8 hurdle runs
Have a 0-57 record in this race
Every past winner
Ran over 3m or more last time
Those that did not were only 0-17
If you look at recent winners
The Damsires of the winners
Had these stamina Indexes
11.7f 12.5f 12.6f 11.8f
11.7f 12.5f 13.0f 16.0f
Every one a stamina index
Or at least 11.7 furlongs
Winners aged 8
Had 24 20 18 17 17 career runs
Had 16 13 10 14 9 chase runs

I hope you enjoy your weekend

Best Wishes

Site Admin





[This is an online webpage copy from our free horse racing newsletter that we
converted to a webpage]


Copyright © Bet Design Ltd, 2021.

Registered Office: Bet Design Ltd C/O Elliot,Woolfe & Rose 1st Floor, Equity House
128-136 High Street, Edgware, Middlesex, HA87TT

No. 04405799. Vat No. GB 885 9511 71