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Saturday is approaching again so time for the usual
memory jog / shameless plug about our
Saturday DayPass Service.
See here => Saturday
Horse Racing
#1 - It Is The Cesarewitch This Weekend.
Earlier in the week Guy provided full members with some advance
Phase 1 stats for the race. [ research into the stat profile
of past race winners ]
I have copied these below for any DIY'er amongst you
who appreciate a bit of stat research to help fine tune
your own selection process.
Ponder the age stats for example.
Runners could be grouped by age and given some sort
of score depending on which age group the fall into.
Then rinse and repeat for other stat factors and you
can build up scores to highlight a tighter group of
horses more statistically likely to win.
Your own imagination and insight could perhaps
weight certain factors more important than others.
Available odds are then the final piece of the puzzle for
the value seeker.
Guy will have completed more indepth work on the race by
Saturday
and his final thoughts ( along with additional races ) will
be in his
Saturday Day Pass message.
The stats below are very useful ingedients if
you are the sort who likes to bake your own cake.
If however you have no desire to do so or are
short of time then just buying master baker Guy's finished
cake
for £3 is perhaps the more sensible choice for you.
#2 - BOG Plus
This is a new horse racing focussed offer from Bet365.
It's like BOG but better and should put more cash
in your pockets.
I have done a bit of number crunching on it
to try and identify any particular sweet spots
in terms of odds range.
Geekish behavior I know ..I really should be out going to
parties, drinking beer
or doing something outdoors and wholesome with my time.
But having the numbers to hand is always useful if making
a betting decission.
One view of the bookies in fact is that they are just middle
men.
They collect cash from casual jack the lads then pay it out
again
to the racing geeks who have done their homework.
The bookies take a percentage for themselves for their middle
men troubles.
I'd rather be on the geek side of that equation.
More info on my BOG Plus findings here
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/bet365-bog-plus.asp
Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
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Cesarewitch Handicap Stats
Horses aged 3 have a 3-67 record since 1990
Horses aged 4 have a 5-265 record since 1990
Horses aged 5 have a 3-182 record since 1990
Horses aged 6 have a 5-131 record since 1990
Horses aged 7 have a 6-92 record since 1990
Horses aged 8-9-10-11 have a 4-67 record since 1990
This shows 5 year olds have the worst strike rate
They have won just 1 of the last 19 renewals
Horses aged 7 or more are 10-159
That is a great record compared to other ages
3 year olds have a 3-67 record
Winners aged 3 had 10 11 9 career starts
Winners aged 3 had 7 9 4 runs this season
Winners aged 3 had 36 22 41 days absence
You want a certain type of 3yo ideally with 9-12 starts
Those with less (0-26) or more (0-121) have yet to win
3 year olds with under 3 career wins (0-33) struggle
All 3 year old winners were 1-2-3 last time
4 year olds have a 5-265 record
Winners aged 4 had 28 13 13 15 10 career starts
Winners aged 4 had 15 5 4 4 5 runs this season
Winners aged 4 had 13 29 191 13 14 days absence
4yo's with 16 + runs on the Flat had a 1-110 record
That winner was a filly
Male 4yo's with more than 15 runs were 0-80
Male 4yo's are best with 10-15 runs and 4-5 runs that year
No winning 4 year old had previous Group class form
5 year olds have a 3-182 record
Winners aged 5 had 13 18 7 career starts
Winners aged 5 had 2 1 4 runs this season
Winners aged 5 had 56 29 28 days absence
Small sample size but all 3 were lightly raced this year
All 3 winners aged 5 were unexposed with under 21 runs
Look at Male horses aged 4 or 5
When having 20 or more runs they are 0-1110
6 year olds have a 5-131 record
Winners aged 6 had 25 19 34 23 21 career starts
Winners aged 6 had 7 7 6 5 8 runs this season
Winners aged 6 had 21 27 37 105 24 days absence
All 6 year old winners had over 20 runs
They all had 5-7-8 runs that season
7 year olds have a 6-92 record
Winners aged 7 had 22 46 46 54 58 career starts
Winners aged 7 had 3 9 9 10 17 runs this season
Winners aged 7 had 21 21 11 57 23 days absence
All winning 7 year olds were experienced
Three had at least 9 runs that season
8-9-10-11 year olds have a 4-67 record
Winners aged 8 + had 37 51 21 53 career starts
Winners aged 8 + had 6 6 5 2 runs this season
Winners aged 8 + had 16 70 112 28 days absence
Most horses aged 8 + had 5 + runs that year
The only one that wasn't was controversial Top Cees
Past winners had the following runs this year
6 3 15 6 5 7 7 6 7 4 6 2 5 9 4 5
I would prefer at least 4 runs this season
More than 7 runs is fine but 4-5-6-7 runs are best
Past winners had the following career runs
31 22 28 37 13 25 10 51 19 13 34 13 21 46 15 23
I would ignore any horse with under 10 runs
Past winners had the following Flat Only runs
14 8 28 37 13 25 10 17 11 8 34 13 8 23 15 12
I would want at least 8 runs on the Flat
All 3 horses that won with 8 runs had extra NH runs
Past winners had these Previous Hurdle runs
12 14 0 0 0 0 0 23 8 5 0 0 14 18 0 11
Past winners had these Previous Chase runs
5 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Most winners had never been chasing
But last years winner did
Past winners had the following days absence
91 21 13 16 29 21 36 70 27 191 37 56 112 21 13 105
You need form in at least Class 2 Grade before
25 of the last 26 winners had that - the exception in1995
5 of the last 8 winners had Group Form before
Horses coming from a Group Class race won 2 races
Both horses came from the Group 2 Doncaster Cup
The winner should have run well last time
Ideally you should be 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 last time
Look at horses beaten 10 + Lengths last time out
They had a miserable 1-254 record since 1990
That winner was beaten in a National Hunt race too
No horse has won this was beaten 10 + Lengths on the flat
Female horses have a 3-64 record
The 3 winners were aged 4 7 4
They all ran within 6 weeks and came from 2m or shorter
They all had at least 13 career starts
All 69 horses that ran over 12f or less last time lost
Horses with Less than 2 career wins are 0-101
Horses that have penalties are 2-73
Horses that ran in the previous 6 weeks over 2m 1f +
Had a 0-53 record before the 2004 winner did it
That record now stands at 1-68
Over the years it has not been a safe preparation
And struggled when coming from Class 2 handicaps
If you have a recent flat run
It is best if it was over 2m or shorter in a Class 3 race
6 winners had this profile
Consider those aged 4 + with 13 or more career starts
Look at those beaten under 4 lengths last time
This brings a very interesting 5-30 profile
This includes the winners in 2013 2011 2010 2002 1999
3 of the last 5 winners had this profile
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