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It is Saturday again tomorrow so time for
another shameless plug to remind you of
the "join for one single day only" Saturday option
available to you here.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
One of many races Guy will be examining
this Saturday is the Crest Nicholson
Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
[ see more detailed analysis info on this race below ]
He has in fact provided full members here
with some early work on the race
as part of his Future Betting Angles sub section.
Part 1 he sent Thursday.
Part 2 he sent this morning ( Friday )
Final declarations for the race were
yet to be decided when he emailed clients earlier
so his final conclusions about short listed
candidates and his opinion about the value in
the race he will be completing for the
Saturday morning message. At that point there will be
less risk of non runners or going change
and markets will be more stable and liquid.
I have got a copy for you however
of his work so far.
There is plenty below to muse over if you have
an interest in this race yourself and fancy
picking your own with the assistance of
some extra insight.
Or of course if you are short of research
and thinking time a paltry £3 will
get you booked in for Guy's Saturday Day Pass
analysis that will include this Crest Nicholson
Handicap race and more.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Enjoy your racing weekend.
Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES - THURSDAY
Ante Post Race
Part 1
Cheltenham Saturday 1.50
CREST NICHOLSON
HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) (5yo+)
2m4f166y
Ballyhill (6) Coo Star Sivola (6) Frodon (8)
Kings Odyssey (8)O O Seven (10) Shantou Flyer (10)
Singlefarmpayment (10) Doitforthevillage (12)
Willie Boy (12) Drumlee Sunset (14) Lami Serge (14)
Pressurize (14) Ultragold (14) Arctic Gold (16)
Catamaran Du Seuil (16) Shanahans Turn (16)
Taquin Du Seuil (16) Tenor Nivernais (16)
Alpha Des Obeaux (20) Bally Longford (20)
Dream Bolt (20) Potters Legend (20) Casse Tete (25)
West Wizard (66)
Just a few early angles in this race
Declarations come through tomorrow
Past winners had the following chase runs
7 15 10 23 12 9 3 21 11 8
There were 2 winners with 20 + Chase runs
Both won in smaller field renewals
Most horses are lighter raced than that
I would oppose the most exposed horses
ULTRAGOLD - 29 chase runs
TENOR NIVERNAIS 25 chase runs
SHANTOU FLYER 21 chase runs
L'AMI SERGE 20 chase runs
If you look at recent winners of this race
They had 5 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 runs that season
I'd avoid horses with 1 run this season
SHANANANS TURN fails this angle
CASSE TETE fails it as well
PRESSURIZE has just 1 recent run
DRUMLEE SUNSET fails this as well
Look at the age of past winners
They were aged 8 8 7 11 7 7 8 10 9 8
Horses aged 6 have struggled
Since 2006
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
22 of these races in January
Horses aged 6 have a 0-22 record
I think we should oppose 6 year olds
COO STAR SIVOLA is only a 6yo
I am not risking him with 3 Chase runs
CATAMARAN DU SEUIL is also a 6yo
FRODON is 6 and has 11st 9lbs
January February March
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Any distance - Any Class
Show horses aged 6
Carrying more than 11st
Have a 0-53 record in these months
FRODON has too much weight aged 6
I'd avoid the following horses
Who have not run well enough last time
WEST WIZARD - POTTERS LEGEND
TAQUIN DU SEUIL is the Topweight
Not for me given he is not a 11 year old
And he ran poorly last time as well
DOITFORTHEVILLAGE did not appeal
He only raced 13 days ago
That was a 13 length defeat over 2m
I think thats a troublesome profile
I will finish this off tomorrow
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FUTURE BETTING ANGLES - FRIDAY
Yesterday I started a race on Saturday
Today is Part 2 of this Cheltenham race
Cheltenham
Saturday 1.50
Part 2
CREST NICHOLSON
HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) (5yo+)
2m4f166y
DREAM BOLT has 16 Chase runs
What bothers me about him
He has no form in Listed/Graded races
He has had enough time to progres to that
I don't want a horse with as many as 16 runs
Who's not been within 2 grades of this race
BALLY LONGFORD is 10 years old
Not keen on that 64 day absence
Handicap Chases at Cheltenham
Listed or Graded races since 2007
October to Febuary
Any distance
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 51 days
Have a 0-68 record in these months
He's also up 3 grades in class today
WILLIE BOY only has 4 Chase runs
Past winners had the following chase runs
7 15 10 23 12 9 3 21 11 8
Only 1 past winner had under 7 chase runs
That horse had achieved far more than him
He also has just 2 runs this season
If I look at horses with under 10 Chase runs
Who have just 1-2 runs this season
I find a 0-55 record in similar races
WILLIE BOY has that to overcome
He is most like the 2011 winner
But that horse had far better numbers
O O SEVEN has a tough weight
He's never won off his current rating
He has never won in this class either
Just don't see him defying a big weight
ARCTIC GOLD has 6 Chase starts
He has yet to win any of those
He has only finished in 4 of them
He was beaten in a Novice Handicap last time
And one that was 3 Grades lower than this
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT has a chance
No objections to his profile
Not really my favourite stable
Tom George's Chases
Running in Listed and Graded races
When there are 9 or more runners
Have a 0-54 record since 2015
KINGS ODYSSEY is a 9 year old
He has 9 Chase starts
Won the Novice race on this card in 2016
On Racing Post Ratings that was a career best
So his best ever run came over course/distance
I made him a negative last time at Cheltenham
He failed 0-31 and 0-22 statistics that day
Essentially underraced and up in distance
Finishing 3rd was a creditable effort
BALLYHILL won at Cheltenham last time
Still unexposed and open to improvement
I don't have major issues with his profile
Having 5 Chase starts is a bit inexperienced
Past winners had the following chase runs
7 15 10 23 12 9 3 21 11 8
But in form and well treated he is shortlistable
The Declarations are through soon
Will firm up a selection tomorrow
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