Hi Folks

#1- Cheltenham Deal?
#2 - Last Saturday
#3 - Gold Cup Update
#4 - Eider Handicap Chase Research

#1- Cheltenham Deal?

I have had three emails in my inbox this week asking if
we were planning a Cheltenham / Aintree Festival month deal again this year.
For efficiency I may as well confirm to you all en masse today
that the answer is a YES.
I have not yet looked at working out precise deal details however.
Expect more data on it via the free newsletter in the early part of March / closer to Cheltenham.

#2 - Last Saturday

I believe we have had two Saturdays since the last free newsletter.
The first was a bit of a dog.
Last weekend was much improved however.
The bets that Guy sweats about most are his selective Account Bets.
GRIMAUD at early odds of 7/1 won nicely for him adding to
long term Account Bet profits.

The message was strong overall as well.
P P L W L W W L P P the races went.

P in that simplistic summary notation implies
ball park stakes returned on the race. So either an
insurance horse winning or a placed each way perhaps.
Guy does like the concept of structuring his stakes in order to reduce
the chance of the bookie keeping his money.

A full warts and all copy may be viewed at
https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/2026/horse-racing-tips-Ascot-14-02-2026.php

Should you ever wish to join up for the service just go to our home page at
https://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
From there it is easy to find options for Saturdays Only, Weekender or the more daily Full Service.

#3 - Gold Cup Update

Back in October 2025 I passed on an ante post selection Guy had bet himself for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Gaelic Warrior at 14/1 that was. Hanging in the balance is that one now with significant but not yet confirmed
chance Gaelic Warrior will run in the Ryan Air instead.

Guy mentioned the horse mid week to Full Members.
Since I passed on his October early notes to the free newsletter I thought it apt to follow
up today with his more up to date thought train.

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Ante Post - March 13th - Cheltenham Gold Cup

Mouth watering as this looks
The market is still gridlocked
Because of the unresolved issue

Which one of these horses
Will run in the Ryanair instead ?

FACT TO FILE

GAELIC WARRIOR

The latest intelligence assumed

FACT TO FILE goes Gold Cup

GAELIC WARRIOR goes Ryanair

Obviously we want that to change

Patrick Mullins
And less so Ruby Walsh
Seem to be in our camp
Preferring the Gold Cup option

Rich Ricci [GAELIC WARRIOR] seems rather quiet

The final decision
May be down to JP McManus [FACT TO FILE]
Rather than Willie Mullins

around 11/1
Has just seen little bits of support

FACT TO FILE now touching 7/1
If anything a little on the weak side

The decision can not be made yet

If the worse does happens

And he goes to the Ryanair........

GAELIC WARRIOR
Will be around 5/4 favourite
To win the Ryanair Chase
He will probably be a saver

JONBON

His market rival in the race

Will be a negative at Cheltenham
In any race he decides to race in
As a 10yo winning 26 days ago

Go back 26 years
Cheltenham Festival
Grade 1 chases
Any distance
Horses aged 10 or more
Running in the last 45 days
Return a 0-100 record

The last 100 have lost

JONBON will be the 101st

So I suspect the Ryanair bet
Will have to be a 50-50 split

Half stakes on Gaelic Warrior
Half stakes on another horse

Not a decision I want to make

Still believe it may be possible
Gaelic Warrior goes gold cup

 

 

#4 - Eider Handicap Chase Research

Phase 1 bare stat research is this for Saturday's Eider Chase.
So not great for those of you seeking a name of horse tip.
However potentially of some use to those who prefer to solve the crossword
by themselves with the assistance of some extra clues.

Guy will be completing his own final answers for this race
and others in time for his Saturday morning message.
There is a link to last week's message in #2 above
should you be interested in seeing the style of such messages.

Ante Post Statistics

Saturday February 21st

Newcastle 2.43

Eider Handicap Chase

Class 2 Handicap 4m1f

Official Ratings of winners

117 126 132 132 139 135 140
127 126 134 133 131 132 125
139 138 131 137 123 123

Go back to 1998
Every winner since 1998
Was officially rated 123 or more
Until last year's 117 rated winner

Only 1 past winner of this
Has won rated 140 or higher
That was a 9 year old (2018)

Horses with 11st 10lbs +
Are 0-20 in this handicap

First run back in 1952
No horse under 9 years old
Won with 11st 9lbs or more
Going right back to 1952

Past winners
Had the Following Chase runs

6 7 20 6 9 17 7 7 11 8 11
5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

18 of the previous 21 winners
Won with under 14 chase runs

No Past winner of this
Had under 5 chase runs

Runs since August 1st
Past winners had these runs
6 3 5 3 4 4 3 2 3 5 3 3 5
2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6
No winner had just 1 run

No horses with over 7 chase runs
Won with under 3 runs that season
All 53 that tried this were beaten

The last 12 winners
Had at least 13 career runs

Horses aged 10 or more
More than 19 lifetime runs
Have a 0-95 record

Go back to 1997
No horse aged 8 or younger
Won absent more than 42 days

Horses aged 8
Have not had a great record
Since 2003 they are just 2-55

No past winner
Ran over 2m 6f or shorter last time

Horses from 3m 5f or more
Running within 41 days
Finishing the race last time
Have a 0-18 record in them

Horses from 3m 2f or more
Running within 41 days
Finishing the race last time
But beaten in that race
Have a 0-29 record in them

Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
10 3 4 6 5 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 0
All had under 11 hurdle runs

Horses with over 27 career runs
Have a 0-68 record in this race

A recent run over 3m 5f +
Has not yet produced the winner

Since 1998
Horses from 3m 5f or more
Running within 41 days
Return a 0-30record in this

15 of the last 17 winners
Shared the below profile

Aged 7-8-9-10-11
5-14 Chase runs
Under 13 Hurdles
11st 12lbs or less
2 + runs in 4 months
Coming from 2m 7f or longer

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