Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

In Today's Free Newsletter

#1 - Saturday Day Pass Memory Jog
#2 - Tipster Under The Weather
#3 - Stats For Newmarket
#4 - CMA Investigation Into Bookmakers
#5 - Cat Skinning

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#1 - Saturday Day Pass Memory Jog

This is the bit where we hope to earn a few shekels
by reminding you to dust the cobwebs off your wallet,
find £3 in change and then invest it in our racing analysis
message for this Saturday.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Nb You need to book in before 10 am Saturday.
Just do it now if interested.


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#2 - Tipster Under The Weather

I see some parallels here with Patrick Veitch's early life
as a tipster as discussed in his book Bookies Enemy Number 1.

There can be a conflict at times between the desire of a credible advisor
to put up as official bets only what he feels strong and reasonably safe about
versus the desire of certain clients for more frequent gambling junkie
like action.

The other day was perhaps a bit of an example of that with
serious weather doubts veering Guy towards safety.

See here

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/horse-racing-saturday/racing-message-june-28-2017.asp


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#3 - Stats For Newmarket

One of the meetings Guy will no doubt be taking a serious look at
on Saturday is at Newmarket.

A quick scan of the card indicates three class 1 non handicaps,
a single class 4 non handicap and then three handicaps at class 3 and 4.

I did a bit of quick research for you into trainer stats at Newmarket.
Call it my top seven trainers to note at Newmarket if you like.
I have excluded some profitable ones on the grounds of low runner count
seeking not just the absolute highest past profit figures but also
a bit of extra confidence from a semi decent sample size.

First lets take a look at Class 1 non handicap races

Trainer Name
Runs
Wins
StrikeRate
SP Profit
BSP Profit
POT SP
POT BSP
J H M Gosden
125
31
24.8
72.5
114.3
58
91.4
Richard Hannon
113
21
18.6
56.8
88.2
50.2
78
A P O'Brien
96
19
19.8
5
28.1
5.2
29.3
Charles Hills
63
7
11.1
6
22.9
9.5
36.4
K A Ryan
43
5
11.6
3.2
20.7
7.6
48.2
M Johnston
73
14
19.2
11.1
20.2
15.2
27.7
R Hannon
66
13
19.7
7.8
14.8
11.9
22.4

 

 

And now for Class 3 and 4 Handicap Races

Trainer Name
Race Class
Runs
Wins
StrikeRate
SP Profit
BSP Profit
POT SP
POT BSP
M L W Bell
4
35
8
22.9
23.8
35.8
67.9
102.3
S C Williams
4
49
6
12.2
20.8
35.6
42.3
72.6
R M Beckett
3
31
8
25.8
23.4
29.9
75.4
96.5
Charlie Appleby
3
34
12
35.3
20.4
25.7
59.9
75.5
A M Balding
3
27
5
18.5
18.5
24
68.5
88.8
M Johnston
4
41
12
29.3
19.3
19.9
47.1
48.5
M Appleby
4
19
5
26.3
14.2
15.4
75
81


Any selections that match the filters above would be worth a closer look.

More sensible I say than Mick Channon for example who has had
just one winner from 50 in his Newmarket class 1 non handicap
races and a terrible net loss.

Note BSP figures are based on Betfair Exchange BSP with 5% commission deducted.
If similar price data for research were available from Matchbook , net profits
may be higher still due to their lower commission rates.

The data bove is based on the past 5 years.

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#4 - CMA Investigation Into Bookmakers

Recent news is that the Competition and Markets Authority
are investigating dodgy bookmaker behaviour and unfair practice.

See
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-launches-enforcement-action-against-gambling-firms

A lot of this is centred around withdrawal hassles and unfair bonus terms.

Personally I hate bonus offers that come with terrible terms
that force a huge amount of rollover and often in limited time frames.

Encouraging new players to turn over loads and under time pressure
I see as the bookies mentally conditioning punters to follow
the traits of problem gamblers.

The world would probably be a better place if all such style offers were barred.

The current scenario is a bit of an arms race.
Bookie marketing departments are all seeking higher headline £ figures
while the bookie accounts dept want to reduce the cost of the bonus to them.

This leads to the current trend towards higher headline £ figures for marketing with
but with so much hoops hurdles attached that the true value of the bonus to
the punter after excessive rollover requirements is minimal.

I'd just ban all rollover requirements myself.

All bookies could then compete on an even terms playing field
of a simple matched free bet amount the winnings from which
can be instantly withdrawn by the punter.

OR if that can't be done then perhaps Advertising Standards
could rule that bookies have to advertise not a headline bonus figure
but instead a true value figure.

A £100 bonus that had to be rolled over 30 times
would thus be clearly differentiated from a £100 bonus
with no rollover requirement at all.

To actually work out the TRUE value of some of these bonus
offers a degree in mathematics would be required.

I don't think it fair that bookies bamboozle the public
with headline £ figures that they have little hope of
understanding the true value of.

The duty of clear disclosure should fall on the operator.

I actually think many semi credible bookies
would welcome such change.

Picture a semi honest bookie with reasonable
fair and simple terms having to compete against
shyster competition who market huge bonus figures
but with horrendous small print terms.

I'd be all for a future change of bookies
competing for custom based on issues such
as quality of service to their customers.

Anyhow on the CMA link above you can find
info about how to contact the CMA if you have
had any trouble withdrawing from a bookmaker.
They want to hear from you if so.

Stick your oar in with the CMA if you have anything to say.
Many small voices add up to a big shout.

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#5 - Cat Skinning

Guy here ( and my good self ) would never be the sort
to arrogantly think that our way is the only way.

The reality is that there are many ways to go about race assessment.

Good ways however are often rooted in hard work and a bit of discipline.
Guy is a big respecter of anyone who puts in thought and effort.

On the full member private message boards here we have a client called Farrier.
He is a bit of a niche specialist and focuses on sprinters.

He does his homework, makes his bets then kindly
posts up on the boards what he has bet himself.

He has been doing this for years now to very positive effect.

Last Saturday was a particularly good day for him.

He put up six horses. [ not usual for him to have so many ]
The first he staked £20 ew the rest £20 on the nose.

Then he also suggested some smaller staked ew trebles.

If I have done my calcs right his total stake on the day was £184

His personal return for the day?

£2357

Anyhow if you ever join the full monthly service be sure to check
him out on the message boards here.

Don't think "official tipster"
More so a long term client here and good niche zone punter
who is kind enough to share what he bets himself with others
on the private message board community here.

Out on the net you will find for sale many a polished turd
wrapped up in a pretty pink ribbon.

Farrier is more so your slightly rough diamond sort.

But popular with many clients here for solid
not superficial gloss reason.


Anyhow till next time
best of luck with your racing.

Mick
Site Admin

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

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